PREMIUM IN USD/TONNE PREVIOUS PRICE

Transcription

1 ALUMINIUM Japan P1020A cif MARCH 7, 2018 Premium rises to highest level since May 2017 after first Q2 MJP deals reported at $129/t, up 25% from Q1 levels. Major producers have offered Q2 MJP supply at $ /t premiums. Spot trading slow as market participants await end of Q2 negotiations, but deals heard at $ /t. Spot premiums expected to strengthen further on firmer Q2 settlement and stronger US Midwest premium due to likely US import tariffs on aluminium. Support seen from nearby LME spreads returning to contango. LME C/3M spread at $15/t contango on March 6 compared to $26/t backwardation a week ago. Japan P1020A cif Shanghai P1020A in-whs Premium range flat amid weak demand and closed import window. Import loss at $440/t on March 5. Chinese government reportedly continuing capacity cuts this year. SHFE stocks increased 30,557t - or 3.8% - to 842,396t on March 2. Shanghai P1020A cif See aluminium ingots Shanghai bonded. Shanghai P1020A cif Taiwan P1020A cif Singapore P1020A fob Premium rises as suppliers raise offers amid firming Japanese market. Offer heard at $125/t cif not finding buyer yet; in-warehouse deal heard at $120/t. Contango in nearby LME spreads also providing support. Major producers offer Q2 MJP supply at $ /t, first Q2 deals reported at $129/t. Premium unchanged amid limited deals, offers. Bids heard at $95-110/t fca basis, no deals done. Republic of Korea P1020A cif Republic of Korea P1020A fca Malaysia P1020A fob Premium inched slightly higher amid rising Japanese premiums, with first Q2 MJP deals reported at $129/t, up 25% from Q1. Spot trading slow. Some concerns that more arrivals from India ahead of country s financial year-end could cap premium upside. Offers for Indian material heard at $100/t cif main Korean ports. Premium up amid increase in fca offers in line with higher premiums in Japan. Offers in Malaysia heard at $ /t fca basis, another at $120/t fob. Bids heard at $95-110/t fca, no deals done. Republic of Korea P1020A cif South East Asia P1020A warrants in-whs East Asia P1020A warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Antwerp P1020A in-whs DUP Antwerp P1020A in-whs DP Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DUP See Antwerp duty-unpaid. Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DP See Antwerp duty-paid. Italy P1020A fca DP Premium unchanged, trading limited. Offers for Indian material heard at $100/t cif main Korean ports. See fca Korea comments. One assessment up to $20/t but majority of the market still sees $15/t as the high point. All business concluded within the range. Live LME stocks up 10,425t this week, mostly in Port Klang. C/3M spread moves from backwardation to $15.15/t contango. Premium moves down to track Rotterdam range this week. Antwerp still seen by most as $2/t below Rotterdam on top end due to higher costs. Premium unchanged to reflect Rotterdam duty-paid premium. Top end of Antwerp range seen $2/t below Rotterdam's due to higher costs. Premium stable, with quarterly deals starting. Market split on direction of premium, with some quarterly deals heard below range, and spot deals at higher end. Spot market heard trading at premium to quarterly, and there are some expectations that market could face some pressure. Salerno, Trieste at higher end, Genoa at the low end to mid-point of range. No material impact on market from potential Section 232 announcement yet. IT IS A VIOLATION OF AMM COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT

2 ALUMINUM (cont'd) Spain P1020A fca DP Turkey P1020A cif DUP Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Spanish premium remains at its highest level since Feb 2016, on par with Italy. Market returns to a standstill with little liquidity. Tight supply, increased logistics costs supporting prices in region. Some say Spain was counting on Canadian imports that have not materialized in sizable tonnage. Market more focused on doing business for higher-purity material. Premium moves slightly higher, with some able to achieve $150/t in recent session. Section 232 action could pressure market in coming months, as Turkey is a large market for Russian and other metal in Asia. Sub-$100/t transactions possible after participants caved in to selling below that mark from facing persistent pressure from backwardated spreads throughout Feb. Bullish sentiment has returned with spreads firmly in contango, but no business above range reported. LME C/3M now at $14.75/t contango, still not wide enough to cover financing cost of holding metal. Market now sees carrying costs of $15-25/t per quarter depending on rent. Volatility expected for premium going forward as European market figures out likely impact of 10% blanket import tariff into the US announced March 1. Market expects more Section 232 developments Thursday when US President Donald Trump meets with aluminium industry executives. Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DP United States P1020A warrants in-whs Midwest United States P1020A dlvd DUP cents/lb cents/lb Premium steady in silent market, with Section 232 announcement yet to have an effect. Some participants sidelined, with impact of proposed tariffs still not clear. C/3M contango widens further but still not profitable to hold material. The 3% duty still difficult to meet in the well-supplied and illiquid market. A small Q2 deal heard in middle of range. LME stock flows remain busy. Stocks total million tonnes compared with million tonnes at the end of Inflows will continue to be influenced by nearby spreads - the cash/three-month spread has eased to a contango of $10.25/t from an average of $19.75/t backwardation across last week. A spot sale for 17.5 cents/lb reported by one supplier. Some sellers are offering for nearly 20 cents/lb, but many are simply waiting for a final decision from President Donald Trump on aluminium tariffs. Discounting on published premium has been reported due to the quiet spot mart and unabated competition from aluminium scrap. Brazil P1020A dlvd Brazil P1020A cif Brazilian premium has followed the US Midwest to some degree, but is not mimicking the same price increase. Hydro's potential 50% reduction of alumina production could push premium up. COPPER Shanghai grade A in-whs Shanghai grade A in-whs Shanghai grade A ER in-whs Premium remains at high level for ER cathodes with more demand reported. Shanghai grade A SX-EW in-whs Buyers have less interest in SX-EW ingots than in ER ingots. Shanghai grade A cif Shanghai grade A cif Shanghai grade A ER cif Shanghai grade A SX-EW cif Delayed shipments from Chile made sellers want higher rates, stock being withheld. Premium stayed at high level for SXEW, delta thinning recently between SXEW and ER brands. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 2

3 COPPER (cont'd) Republic of Korea grade A cif South East Asia grade A cif Japan grade A cif Taiwan grade A cif Premium yet to firm in line with Shanghai levels. Offers rebuffed at higher levels. Premium unchanged with trade recorded within the MB range. Sellers offering higher in line with Shanghai market moves but no business recorded as yet. Japanese spot market remains illiquid despite robust demand from construction sector. Preference seen for domestic copper over imported material. Indicative premium with no trades reported. Most companies finished restocking prior to Lunar New Year holidays. Market expected to track Shanghai market higher. Republic of Korea grade A cif See South Korea, grade A, cathode, cif, $ per tonne South East Asia grade A warrants in-whs East Asia grade A warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Rotterdam grade A cif Italy grade A cif Germany grade A dlvd Total live stocks down 900t this week despite increase in Port Klang. LME 3M price trading back above $7,000/t. No change this week but market eyes scrap flows, cathode availability going forward to gauge potential impact on premium. LME on-warrant stock in Rotterdam increases slightly to 64,275t from a week ago. Premium unchanged, with contango enabling sellers to hold stock rather than offload at lower premium. Few trades heard this week. Market eyes consolidation and potential impact of Aurubis, Codelco, Wieland product-line deals on buying patterns. Leghorn grade A cif See Italy, grade A, cathode, cif, $ per tonne. North Europe grade A warrants in-whs Southern Europe grade A warrants in-whs See North Europe warrants. Midwest United States grade A DDP cents/lb cents/lb Live copper stock in Europe edged slightly higher this week on delivery into Rotterdam. Little change over the past week as demand remains uneven and supply stays plentiful. United States grade A warrants in-whs Comex copper stocks rose to 231,956 short tons. LEAD India 99.97% cif Premium increases slightly at the upper end this week, with buying interest returning on the back of the falling LME lead price. LME 3M price down 5% from week-ago levels to around $2,430/t on Tuesday. Market participants bracing themselves for industrial activity's peak season before summer. India 99.99% cif Limited spot demand for 99.99% lead ingots. South East Asia 99.97% cif South East Asia 99.99% cif Taiwan 99.97% cif Taiwan 99.99% cif See 99.97% Taiwan cif. South East Asia 99.97% warrants in-whs East Asia 99.97% warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Spot demand remains low despite 5% week-on-week drop in LME lead price. As of Tuesday, LME lead stocks in Port Klang dropped by 700t from previous week. Limited physical demand for 99.99% lead ingots. Mostly on long-term contracts. Market recovering from Lunar New Year holidays. Spot ingots reported available. SHFE stocks fell 2,721t - or 8.2% - to 30,567t on March 2. One assessment down to $5/t but no trades at this level. Total stocks in Asia little changed this week, despite total on-warrant inventory climbing over 22,000t in Europe. C/3M spread stable at $4.50/t. Rotterdam 99.97% fca DP LME stocks in Antwerp jumped by 266% since Feb 27 to more than 30,000t after chunky deliveries. Rotterdam 99.99% fca DP See lead 99.97% ingots Rotterdam DP fca. Italy 99.97% fca DP Premium unchanged in quiet market conditions. Downside is seen due to weak demand. LME stock in Leghorn stable at 5,200t. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 3

4 LEAD (cont'd) North Europe 99.97% warrants in-whs Quiet trading conditions for lead warrants in Europe. Live stocks in Europe were up 22,125t this week following large deliveries into Antwerp. LME 3M price stable back below $2,500/t. Southern Europe 99.97% warrants in-whs See North Europe warrants. United States 99.97% warrants in-whs No LME lead stocks in US. Midwest United States 99.99% DDP cents/lb cents/lb See US lead 99.97%. Midwest United States 99.97% DDP 9-11 Cents/lb 9-11 Cents/lb Demand solid due to restocking cycle. NICKEL Shanghai 99.80% in-whs Shanghai Full plates in-whs Premium unchanged amid slow trading activity due to negative import arbitrage and rising bonded stocks. Import losses between LME and Wuxi most-traded March contract at around $350/t on March 6 compared with $390/t on Feb 27. Metal Bulletin assessed Shanghaibonded nickel stocks at 34,000-39,000t at end Feb, up 70% from the prior month due to high imports in Dec and Jan and low buying interest. Low purchasing interest for imported nickel plate from stainless steel producers and traders. Shanghai 99.80% cif Shanghai Full plates cif Market for cif material remains well under in-warehouse premium amid very thin trading conditions due to negative import arbitrage. Fewer bids and offers for cif cargoes than bonded stocks because traders and stainless steel mills have no interest - import window has remained closed since China raised import taxes this year. Import arbitrage opportunities expected to be limited at least until April-May. Jinchuan nickel full plates and Russian Nornickel full plates price gap in domestic China narrows to 300 yuan/t this week compared with around 1,500 yuan/t in 2017 before import tax was raised. South East Asia briquettes warrants in-whs Strong demand for briquettes in Asia this week. Live stock down 18,432t this week. LME C/3M spread widened to $51/t contango. East Asia briquettes warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia briquettes warrants. South East Asia Full plates warrants in-whs Offers heard below and above the range but no business transacted at these levels. Market still tight with very limited availability of full plates. LME nickel price still high, above $13,500/t. East Asia Full plates warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia full-plate warrants. Rotterdam Full plates in-whs Rotterdam 4x4 cathodes in-whs Rotterdam briquettes in-whs North Europe Full plates warrants in-whs Midwest United States 99.80% melting material DDP cents/lb cents/lb Midwest United States 99.80% plating material DDP cents/lb cents/lb Premium moves to 11-year high. Strong bullish sentiment in the market has materialized into higher premium, spurred by extremely tight full-plate material. Market sees more activity compared to past weeks. Doing business below range is now more difficult. Sellers still looking to get as much as $300/t but not easily done. Premium moves slightly higher to reflect increase in uncut cathodes. Queues said to be forming for metal to be cut at warehouses. Cutting costs assessed higher to $ /t with 4x4 market tighter in recent weeks. Briquette premiums move slightly higher on the low end. Declining LME stocks stoke higher premium. LME C/3M contango widens to $51/t. LME 3M price at around $13,610/t. LME live Rotterdam nickel stocks continue to decline, now at 22,746t from 23,748t. Continued tight availability of full plates in Europe. One assessment up to $250/t but majority of market still sees $200/t as high end of range. Live nickel stocks in Europe dipped lower in Rotterdam this week, no available stock left in Hamburg or Vlissingen. Good demand remains. Supply is available, though tightness is anticipated as producers reduce production levels. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 4

5 TIN Shanghai 99.85% cif Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as tin 99.85% Shanghai cif. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as tin 99.85% Shanghai cif. Premium flat as end-users bought enough stock before Lunar New Year holidays. SHFE stocks down 81t - or 1.5% - vs last week to 5,387t on March 2. Taiwan 99.9% cif Market still recovering after Lunar New Year holidays. Singapore 99.9% in-whs Singapore 99.9% low lead in-whs South East Asia min 99.85% warrants in-whs Rotterdam 99.85% in-whs Rotterdam 99.9% in-whs Rotterdam 99.9% low lead in-whs Baltimore 99.85% in-whs Premium stable as suppliers remain keen to sell amid high LME tin prices. Buying at flat LME price in Singapore said to be possible, albeit with pricing optionality. Most Indonesian smelters have renewed export permits, but smaller producers still doing paperwork needed to trade on Indonesia's ICDX and actual exports mainly done by PT Timah for now. Trades on ICDX for exports have reached 7,015t in Feb vs 5,245t in Jan and 7,270t in Dec. March has seen 240t traded so far. Spot market very thin for low-lead material, offers stay high amid tight availability of below 100ppm units in Asia. Most business on long-term contracts. Premium unchanged amid quiet market. Live LME stocks are up 25t this week but remain at record-low levels. Market for 99.85% material soft with no new spot trades reported. MSC not making its way to Europe anymore. No live stocks in Rotterdam, last 80t canceled out for delivery. Premium unchanged on improved supply from Indonesia, fewer spot inquiries. Deals reported at both ends of range in quieter spot market than Jan-Feb. Small shipment delays by RBT amid production problems not yet affecting spot market. LME 3M price drops slightly from high around $21,500/t, C/3M backwardation narrrows to $77/t from $95/t last week. On-exchange and off-exchange stock levels low in Europe amid steady demand growth. Low-lead premium falls further on lower end of range from recent record-high levels above $600/t on the back of improved spot availability and less short covering. Sub-50ppm materials fetch premium toward upper end of range, while 80ppm units valued closer to bottom end. Traders find it unattractive to sell much below $600/t. Premium stable amid quiet market. Lack of imports from Indonesia not having an impact on supply. Midwest United States 99.85% ASTM dlvd Tightness in trucking industry continues to push costs up. ZINC India SHG cif DP Indicative premium rolled over from a week ago. On Tuesday, zinc hit a two-month low of $3,272/t after massive 78,950t delivery into LME-sheds in New Orleans. India SHG cif DUP See Zinc SHG ingots India cif duty-paid. Shanghai SHG in-whs Shanghai SHG cif Premium down amid high stock levels and weak demand. Arbitrage window closed, import loss at about $109/t on March 5. Metal Bulletin last assessed Shanghai-bonded zinc stocks at around 216, ,000t at end Feb, up 29.5% from last month and 102.8% from last year. SHFE stocks up 35,664t - or 31% - to 150,551t on March 2. Taiwan SHG cif Potential downward pressure seen from rising Shanghai stock levels. Shanghai SHG in-whs Singapore SHG in-whs Singapore SHG fca Premium unchanged, trading remains slow amid higher prices, nearby LME spreads remaining in backwardation, lack of import arb opportunities in Shanghai. Offers heard at $ /t, with the higher end for fresh production, but most participants did not see offers above $135/t as achievable. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 5

6 ZINC (cont'd) Malaysia SHG in-whs Malaysia SHG fca See Singapore fca. South East Asia SHG cif Singapore SHG in-whs See in-warehouse Malaysia. Rotterdam SHG fca DUP Rotterdam SHG fca DP Antwerp SHG fca DP Premium unchanged, limited spot trading and offers in market amid slow demand. Premium unchanged, spot trading still slow amid high zinc prices. Participants peg range as achievable for cif Vietnam and Indonesia. Support seen from tight metal supply. Premium softens at higher end of range as traders continue to offload stocks despite thinner backwardation/contangoed forward spreads. Market waits to see outcome of stock deliveries into New Orleans and whether cancellations lead to renewal of spread tightness. Premium softens with material offered at lower levels to consumers and traders. Premium unchanged as spot market remains quiet. LME stocks in Europe stood at 600t in Bilbao, unchanged from a week ago. Antwerp SHG fca DUP European demand dropped by 4.3% in 2017 according to the WBMS. Italy SHG fca DP Italy SHG DDP North Europe SHG warrants in-whs cents/lb cents/ lb United States SHG warrants in-whs No business reported. Live stocks unchanged in Europe with just 600t in Bilbao. Global stocks up 93,100t due to largest delivery into New Orleans since Live New Orleans stocks surged to 176,300t. Overall stocks stand at 206,600t. Market quiet, but massive New Orleans stock inflow has some market participants cautious. The delivery was the largest LME inflow since 2013 and forced the market back into contango for the first time this year. The move increased on-warrant stock levels by 94%, and there is a rumor of another 70,000t being delivered sometime this week. Traders said the delivery could be pushing off-exchange stocks lower, which may tighten market. Indicative premium rolled over from a week ago. On Tuesday, zinc hit a two-month low of $3,272/t after massive 78,950t delivery into LME-sheds in New Orleans. Midwest United States SHG DDP See Zinc SHG ingots India cif duty-paid. Premiums are paid on top of London Metal Exchange cash prices to acquire ownership or secure delivery of physical metal at an agreed location and date. Rates vary according to brand, specification, purity, tonnage, payment terms and warehouse operator. (Table compiled by Metal Bulletin and AMM Newsdesks) If you wish to export any Metal Bulletin prices to distribute to other people or input them into a company system you will require a data licence. Click here to find out more. Please do not forward this . View our terms and conditions for more information. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 6