NOVEMBER 29, 2017 ALUMINIUM

Transcription

1 ALUMINIUM Japan P1020A cif NOVEMBER 29, 2017 Spot cif MJP premium stable in $85-100/t range, one deal heard at lower end of range. Some participants did not rule out deals below $90 for suppliers looking to keep inventory thin at year-end, but most participants see $ as range accepta-ble to buyers/sellers amid bullish outlook for Q1 premiums. Participants still awaiting firm Q1 offers from producers, ex-pect premiums within $ /t range, up from Q4 settle-ment of $94-95/t. Support seen from stable US and European premiums, Chinese winter production cuts, contango in LME nearby spreads. Japan P1020A cif Shanghai P1020A in-whs Premium flat amid weak demand. Import window closed, losses at $340/t. SHFE aluminium stocks increased 3,312t - or 0.5% - vs last week to 694,572t on Nov 24. Shanghai P1020A cif Same as bonded Shanghai. Shanghai P1020A cif Taiwan P1020A cif Premium unchanged on limited spot trading as participants start talks on annual contracts. Support seen from contango in nearby LME spreads, bullish Q1 expectations for premiums. Singapore P1020A fob Premium unchanged amid limited spot trading. Republic of Korea P1020A cif Republic of Korea P1020A fca Premium unchanged, with some spot deals heard at higher end of range. Most sellers reluctant to lower offers on bullish Q1 outlook, high US spot premium, China winter output cuts, contango in nearby LME spreads. Malaysia P1020A fob See Singapore fob. Republic of Korea P1020A cif South East Asia P1020A Warrants in-whs Limited trading on cif basis due to sufficient inventory. PPS tender on Nov 21 closed at $98.25/t cif Incheon, for non-good western material for delivery by Feb 10, with only two sellers participating in tender. Another PPS tender for 1kt good west-ern aluminium to open on same day was unsuccessful. Low number of tender participants, unsuccessful tender likely due to sellers holding material for sale next year and/or limited material availability, sources said. Premium falls to $15 on the high end with no assessments, offers or transactions reported higher than $15/t. Still, overall live LME aluminium stocks at lowest since East Asia P1020A Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asian warrants. Antwerp P1020A in-whs DUP Antwerp P1020A in-whs DP Flat to reflect Rotterdam range this week. Antwerp still seen by most as $2/t below Rotterdam on top end due to higher costs. Premiums stable at $ in line with Rotterdam duty-paid premiums. Top end of Antwerp range seen $2/t below Rotter-dam's due to higher costs. Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DUP See Antwerp duty-unpaid. Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DP See Antwerp duty-paid. Italy P1020A fca DP Premium remains flat, transactions broadly reported within the range as some consumers look to cover any remaining volumes for rest of year. Still, most consumers well-stocked. Market outlook flat for rest of year but bullish for next year. IT IS A VIOLATION OF AMM COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT

2 ALUMINUM (cont'd) Spain P1020A fca DP Turkey P1020A cif DUP Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Business at lower premiums difficult to achieve. Still, overall liquidity in Spanish spot market is thin, with year-end destock-ing expected to increase supply availability in coming weeks. One spot deal for small tonnage reported at higher end of range but demand said to remain solid. Transactions continue to be reported within the Metal Bulletin range of $90-95/t, market in agreement that most offers con-tinue to be heard between these numbers. Buyers still declin-ing offers above $95/t except for small volumes, but many in market expect that $100/t could be seen soon. Spreads contin-ue to edge lower, LME C/3M contango at $14/t now on border-line between break-even and loss with regard to financing of metal. Market outlook for next year continues to be positive on Chinese winter cuts. Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DP United States P1020A Warrants in-whs Midwest United States P1020A DLVD DUP cents/lb cents/lb Brazil P1020A DLVD More transactions reported during this assessment but largely for smaller volumes as consumers look to cover any volumes needed between now and year s end. Transactions now being reported above range, although these do not reflect where bulk of business is being concluded for now, with most transactions still between $ /t. Nearby spreads remain in contango, although now on borderline between loss and break-even, with C/3s now at $14/t business reported around the upper end of the spot range. Tighter market anticipated in Q due to multiple global factors. Detroit warehouses reported sudden jump in canceled warrants, totaling 29,925 lots. One supplier reported a deal into the Midwest at 9.15 cents, which, when normalized to 30-day payment terms, falls within low-end of range. No other deals reported. Spot market said to be deathly quiet, with some market participants looking at labor issues at ABI and general seasonal destocking to move spot rates in either direction. Spot buying interest slow. Contract talks advancing, some ex-pected to be concluded this week. Brazil P1020A cif Import premium not competitive compared to domestic pre-mium. COPPER Shanghai grade A in-whs Shanghai grade A ER in-whs Shanghai grade A SX-EW in-whs Shanghai grade A cif Shanghai grade A ER cif Shanghai grade A SX-EW cif Spot business unremarkable with majority of Chinese market locking in annual deals and attending CESCO Asia Copper Week. Offers for top brand cathodes talked up in mid-$80s but traded tonnage lower. LME C/3M spread maintains wide contango at $30/t, support-ing in-warehouse premium. Holders in no rush to sell units. Metal Bulletin assessed Shanghai-bonded copper stocks at kt as of Nov 20, down 20kt from two weeks before. Closed arb window and focus on long-term contracts sees cif continue to trade lower than in-warehouse copper. Delta seen between most SX and ER trades as banks prefer the latter for financing. Chilean producer Codelco increases annual offer by $3 to $75/t in Initial consumer response positive. China imported 330kt wrought copper and copper fabricated production in Oct, down 30% m-o-m but 14% higher y-o-y. Premium for SX-EW flat, with tonnes traded within range. Relative delta between SX & ER cathodes. Shanghai grade A cif Shanghai grade A in-whs Republic of Korea grade A cif South Korean market subdued with long-term contract negoti-ations in play. Banks still unwilling to finance metal in South Korea - supply availability from Korean warehouses supporting LME futures contango. Codelco offers $70/t premium cif Korea, Taiwan and Japan for IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 2

3 COPPER (cont'd) South East Asia grade A cif Japan grade A cif Premium largely unchanged, trades seen taking place between $65-70/t, offers slightly higher. Many market participants from region attending CESCO Shanghai. Codelco and PPC yet to offer annual premiums into Southeast Asia. Spot buying interest limited. Codelco offers fiscal-year 2018 annual premium at $70/t, up $2 from Taiwan grade A cif Bid level in Taiwan $60-65/t, while offers are at $70/t. Republic of Korea grade A cif South East Asia grade A Warrant in-whs No new concluded business reported this week, bulk of the market still sees range between $5-10/t. East Asia grade A Warrant in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Rotterdam grade A cif Premium gains marginally, with holders emboldened by con-tango market. Very few market players are buying spot physi-cal in great quantities. LME C/3M price broke above $7,000/t but has since softened closer to $6,800. Buyers are looking to enter the spot market at a lower premium. Italy grade A cif Few bits of spot business seen within range. Germany grade A DLVD Market focused on long-term agreements. Many consumers already well-stocked for Q so may well book lower ton-nage on long-term contract. Long-term range from mid-$70s/t to above $100/t. Leghorn grade A cif North Europe grade A Warrant in-whs Southern Europe grade A Warrant in-whs See North European warrants. Midwest United States grade A DDP cents/lb cents/ lb Annual contract debate taking longer than expected, with freight and borrowing costs the biggest hurdles. United States grade A Warrant in-whs CME stocks rose by 209,427 short tons. LEAD India 99.97% cif Demand remains solid with additional buying demand from the chemicals sector. Deal and assessment have been heard at a level as high as $60/t. Sellers said unwilling to let go of the material at a premium lower than $40/t. India 99.99% cif Premium for "four-nines" unchanged in illiquid trading condi-tions. South East Asia 99.97% cif South East Asia 99.99% cif Taiwan 99.97% cif Range widened as multiple deals were heard trading at mid-$60s and low $70s. Buying interest coming from Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. More lead stocks expected to flow into Southeast Asia due to incentives offered by warehousing com-panies. Premium may be pushed up if China continues to import 99.99% ingots; First shipment of 99.99% ingots to China ar-rived in Oct. Ingots delivered to SHFE must have lead content of no less than %. Premium flat on weak demand. Trend for China importing refined lead continues with 12,686t coming in during Oct. SHFE lead stocks up 1,224t - or 3.7% - vs last week to 34,442t on Nov 24. Market negotiating 2018 long-term contract. Taiwan 99.99% cif Same as 99.97% Taiwan cif. South East Asia 99.97% Warrants in-whs One spot transaction reported within range. East Asia 99.97% Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 3

4 LEAD (cont'd) Rotterdam 99.97% fca DP Spot market quiet as participants focus on annual contract negotiations. Offer within the range has been heard. LME on-warrant stock in Europe stands at 82,800t, compared with 94,450t a week ago. Rotterdam 99.99% fca DP See Lead 99.97% Rotterdam DP fca Italy 99.97% fca DP North Europe 99.97% Warrants in-whs Premium unchanged in inactive spot market. Upward pressure seen in near future due to a limited supply of spot materials in Italian market. Sources suggested certain local recyclers have already sold out their stocks. LME on-warrant stock in Leghorn stood at a low level of 900t, unchanged from last week. Warrants in Europe remain in tight hands. Majority of on-warrant stock remains in Rotterdam and Vlissingen. Southern Europe 99.97% Warrants in-whs See North Europe warrants. United States 99.97% Warrants in-whs No LME stocks in the US. Midwest United States 99.99% DDP cents/lb cents/lb Premium flat due to soft demand stemming from holiday sea-son. Long-term contract premium for 2018 likely to be slightly higher than in 2017 due to tightness in concentrate market. Midwest United States 99.97% DDP 9-11 cents/lb 9-11 cents/lb Same rationale as for 99.99%. NICKEL Shanghai 99.80% in-whs Shanghai 99.80% cif Shanghai Full plates cif Shanghai Full plates in-whs South East Asia briquettes Warrants in-whs Premium falls below $300/t as tighter credit results in less buying interest, more selling interest in spite of positive Shanghai arb. Weaker downstream stainless steel industry in China, tighter credit at end of year restrict buying interest. More shipments arriving in China recently, liquidation of stocks at year's end encourage selling interest. Market participants expect Chinese refined nickel imports to be higher in Nov and Dec, easing full-plate supply tightness. Higher offers above $300 fail to gain acceptance in market. Premium falls to slightly lower than $300 due to less buying interest from stainless steel mills and full plate traders. Easy availability, low Chinese NPI premium depresses buying inter-est from stainless steel mills. Tighter credit, more supply re-stricted buying interest from traders. LME C/3M contango rela-tively stable over past three weeks, spreads at $57/t on Nov 28 vs $59/t on Nov 14. Majority of market see $10/t as low end of range. Still strong demand for briquettes. East Asia briquettes Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia briquettes warrants. South East Asia Full plates Warrants in-whs No concluded business reported this week but Russian brands offered around $200/t. Full-plate availability very tight amid strong import demand from China. East Asia Full plates Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia full plate warrants. Rotterdam Full plates in-whs Range firms $10/t on the lower-end with small deals done at the upper end of the range. LME 3M price falls to $11,415/t compared to around $11,800/t at this time last week. Market bullish on expectations for 2018 contracts. Fixed contracts said to be tougher to achieve because of expectations of higher premiums. Some participants have signed annual contracts higher than the 2017 premium. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 4

5 NICKEL (cont'd) Rotterdam 4x4 cathodes in-whs Rotterdam briquettes in-whs North Europe Full plates Warrants in-whs Midwest United States 99.80% melting mate-rial DDP cents/lb cents/lb Premium in line with full plates and tightening cutting capaci-ties. Cutting costs around $ /t plus small trucking costs. LME live nickel stocks slightly lower to 23,178t from 24,174t at this time last week. $59/t LME C/3M contango makes cash-and-carry trades profitable, keeping availability tight. Consum-ers acknowledging higher price environment may stay. Low availability of European warrants in-warehouse, no on-warrant stock left in Hamburg or Vlissingen. Demand drops slightly due to holiday season, but material remains tight. Premium expected to rise in 2018 if demand remains strong and supply lags. Midwest United States 99.80% plating mate-rial DDP cents/lb cents/lb TIN Shanghai 99.85% cif Premium flat amid weak demand. China exported 13,303t of tin ore and concentrates in Oct, down 63.57% y-o-y and 37.57% m-o-m. China imported 400t of refined tin in October. SHFE stocks down 318t - or 3.7% - vs last week at 8,232t on Nov 24. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as 99.85% Shanghai cif. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as 99.85% Shanghai cif. Taiwan 99.9% cif Premium flat amid weak demand. Singapore 99.9% in-whs Volumes traded on Indonesia's ICDX for exports rose 11% in Oct to 7,615t vs 6,865t in Sep. Some supply shipped to Europe but bulk stays in Asia or is diverted to the US where premiums are higher. Some participants monitoring heavy rain and Mt. Agung volcano eruption in Indonesia to gauge effect on mar-ket. Singapore 99.9% Low lead in-whs Spot trading remains illiquid. South East Asia min 99.85% Warrants in-whs Offers reported higher but no new business reported. Rotterdam 99.85% in-whs Market in line with 99.9% assessment, with no spot trades reported. MSC delivered into Asian warehouses and not mak-ing their way to Europe anymore. No live stocks in Rotter-dam, last 80t canceled out for delivery. Rotterdam 99.9% in-whs Quiet week with reduced buying appetite amid start of year-end destocking. LME 3M price stable at $19,500/t while C/3M backwardation narrows to $64/t from $82/t last week. C/Dec in a $10/t contango. Focus on long-term contracts for Some participants watching heavy rain and Mt. Agung volcano eruption in Indonesia for effects on tin market. Rotterdam 99.9% Low lead in-whs Market focused on 2018 supply contracts with first deals com-ing in at similar levels to spot. Baltimore 99.85% in-whs Producers and traders say many consumers have accepted higher long-term contract premiums for 2018 due to rising interest rates. Midwest United States 99.85% ASTM DLVD Demand for spot material muted due to the holiday season. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 5

6 ZINC India SHG cif DP Indicative price with no deals reported. Expansions in domestic production leave little space for imports. India SHG cif DUP See SHG ingots India cif duty-paid premium Shanghai SHG in-whs China imported 61,355t of refined zinc in Oct, up 145% y-o-y but down 20.5% m-o-m. SHFE stocks down 4,314t - or 5.1% - vs last week to 80,196t on Nov 24. Shanghai SHG cif Same as in warehouse Shanghai. Taiwan SHG cif Weak spot demand as market focuses on long-term contract negotiations. Shanghai SHG in-whs Singapore SHG in-whs Offers heard at $80-85 this week but limited buying interest. Singapore SHG fca Malaysia SHG in-whs Premium unchanged amid limited offers, spot trading. Back-wardation in nearby LME spreads, high zinc prices, lack of im-port arb opportunity in Shanghai continue to deter buyers. Sup-ply in region stays tight after metal went to China when import arb was opened earlier this year, sources said hard to locate fresh material. Premium in narrower range, offers heard at higher end of range in Singapore, Malaysia. Limited buying interest amid persistent backwardation in nearby LME spreads, high LME zinc prices, closed Shanghai import arb. Support seen from tighter metal supply in region after metal went to China when import arb was opened earlier this year. Malaysia SHG fca See Singapore fca. South East Asia SHG cif Premium unchanged on limited spot trading, scant buying in-terest on high LME prices. Market without Padaeng material entirely next year but potential for increased Indian exports to meet supply gap. Singapore SHG in-whs See Malaysia in-warehouse. Rotterdam SHG fca DUP LME C/3M spread backwardation narrowed to $20/t. Rotterdam SHG fca DP Antwerp SHG fca DP Northern European FCA market widened as larger volumes were heard trading at mid-$130s while truckloads were sold at high $140s. Trader said premiums for annual contracts settled so far are either staying flat or going up slightly by less than $5/t. Certain producers requested an increase citing freight cost hikes. Premium unchanged in a quiet spot market. Upward pressure may be seen as delivery cost to Antwerp is said to be up by $2-5/t from last year. Antwerp SHG fca DUP No more on-warrant stock in Antwerp. Italy SHG fca DP Italy SHG DDP Multiple traders were heard raising their 2018 contract premi-um to $ /t, citing an increase in freight cost. Top end of the range up on transport cost hike and a lack of materials in the area. Transportation cost from Antwerp to Italy was said to have risen by $10/t from a year ago. North Europe SHG Warrants in-whs No trades reported, no on-warrant stock in Antwerp. United States SHG Warrants in-whs Midwest United States SHG DDP 8-9 cents/lb 8-9 cents/lb Stocks in New Orleans relatively flat. Stocks totaled 208,425t on Nov 28, down just 1,800t w-o-w. Demand for material consistent. Consumers wary of high LME price and choosing to purchase material when it dips. Premiums are paid on top of London Metal Exchange cash prices to acquire ownership or secure delivery of physical metal at an agreed location and date. Rates vary according to brand, specification, purity, tonnage, payment terms and warehouse operator. (Table compiled by Metal Bulletin and AMM Newsdesks) If you wish to export any Metal Bulletin prices to distribute to other people or input them into a company system you will require a data licence. Click here to find out more. Please do not forward this . View our terms and conditions for more information. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 6