Cross- Border Financial Linkages: Iden5fying and Measuring Vulnerabili5es
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1 Cross- Border Financial Linkages: Iden5fying and Measuring Vulnerabili5es Philip R. Lane Trinity College Dublin and CEPR Second IMF Sta>s>cal Forum 17 th November 2014
2 Introduc5on Measuring cross- border financial linkages: Price- based measures; volume- based measures Volume- Based Measures Exposures through interna>onal financial flows and interna>onal investment posi>ons Balance Sheet mechanisms Interna>onal funding and liquidity shocks
3 Risk Factors Direct Net financial flows: chronic and acute risks of external imbalances (sudden stops, adjustment dynamics) Exposure to interna>onal financial shocks (wealth effects; porzolio adjustment; asset prices) Amplifica>on of domes>c shocks: banks; fiscal Indirect Domes>c credit and interna>onal debt flows Fiscal vola>lity Sectoral asymmetries
4 Typology Cross- border bank- related debt flows Financial Sector FDI OFIs: loans, porzolio flows Sovereigns: public debt, reserves, SWFs NFCs: cross- border debt; foreign equity funding Households: foreign deposits, foreign porzolios, foreign real estate; foreign debt
5 Dynamics of Financial Globalisa5on Rapid growth since mid- 1990s Increased dispersion in net posi>ons Level and composi>on of interna>onal balance sheets (advanced versus emerging economies): debt- equity mix; currency mix; maturity structure Financial globalisa>on and exchange rate economics
6 Figure 1. Foreign Assets and Foreign Liabilities (World Aggregates) Note: Calculated from updated version of External Wealth of Nations data, as described in Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007). Percent of world GDP.
7 Figure 2. Global Discrepancy (% of World GDP) Note: Global sum of foreign liabilities minus global sum of foreign assets, percent of world GDP. Calculated from updated version of External Wealth of Nations data, as described in Lane and Milesi- Ferretti (2007).
8 Figure 3. Composition of International Balance Sheets Panel A. Foreign Assets Panel B. Foreign Liabilities Note: Calculated from updated version of External Wealth of Nations data, as described in Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007).
9 Figure 4. Global Imbalances: Current Accounts and Net International Investment Positions (% of world GDP) Panel A. Current Accounts Panel B: Net International Investment Positions Note: Drawn from IMF s World Economic Outlook (October 2014).
10 Figure 5. Share of Offshore Centres in Cross-Border Bank Positions Note: Calculated based on BIS data. Offshore aggregate follows BIS definition of offshore centres.
11 Figure 6. Share of Offshore Centres in Cross-Border Portfolio Holdings Note: Calculated Based on Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey data. List of offshores based on IMF-OECD lists.
12 Figure 7. Share of Offshore Centres in FDI Positions. Note: Calculated based on Coordinated Direct Investment Survey data. List of offshores based on IMF-OECD lists.
13 Figure 8. Scale of Non-Bank Financial Sector Note: Trillions of US dollars. Based on Financial Stability Board Monitoring the Shadow Banking System dataset.
14 Figure 9. Proportion of Total Private Credit Provided by Domestic Banks Note: Based on BIS Credit to Private Sector database. Total private credit is sum of credit from domestic banking system, cross-border bank credit and bond issuance.
15 Figure 10. Linkages between Banks and Other Financial Intermediaries Note: Trillions of US dollars. Based on Financial Stability Board Monitoring the Shadow Banking System dataset.
16 Measurement and Interpreta5on Issues Impressive expansion in availability of cross- border financial data over last 10 years But not sufficient for comprehensive data analy>cs Linking cross- border and sectoral data Linking cross- border and domes>c financial data Within sectors: domes>c and foreign- owned en>>es Global Flow of Funds analysis (Errico et al 2014) Interna>onal Currency Exposures (Benetrix et al 2014)
17 Figure 11. Distribution of Net Foreign Currency Positions, Note: Adapted from Benetrix et al (2013). NETFX is ratio of net foreign-currency assets to GDP.
18 Figure 12. The Irish International Investment Position: Resident and Non-Resident Ultimate Controlling Parents Note: Q values. Based on data from Central Statistics Office (Ireland).
19 New Data Ini5a5ves I BIS interna>onal banking sta>s>cs: Ø Stage I (no addi>onal data collec>on) beeer exploita>on of reported data (geographical composi>on of loca>onal by na>onality ; currency denomina>on; full balance sheets (domes>c plus cross- border) Ø Stage II (extra data collec>on) counterparty sectoral breakdown in consolidated sta>s>cs; loca>onal data: resident banks, non- bank financial ins>tu>ons, non- financial private sector; liability breakdown (deposits, debt securi>es, other liabili>es, equity) FSB Shadow Banking Sta>s>cs Data quality: CDIS example
20 New Data Ini5a5ves II Legal En>ty Iden>fier (LEI) project Ø GLEIF established in June 2014 Ø Level 1 data (en>ty iden>fier); Level 2 data (rela>onships among Level 1 en>>es) Ø Standardised financial product iden>fier (PI) codes Ø Project Actus ini>a>ve Micro- level na>onal datasets: coordinated research Ø Interna>onal Banking Research Network (IBRN)
21 Conclusions Advances in cross- border financial data Advances in sectoral financial data Room for growth: combining sectoral and cross- border datasets ( global flow of funds ) Role of micro- level datasets Data Gaps Upgrade of BIS interna>onal banking sta>s>cs CPIS: currency; offshores; maturity; sectoral iden>ty LEI ini>a>ve
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