Southeast Asia: a SWOT analysis by the OECD
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1 Southeast Asia: a SWOT analysis by the OECD ECMI Symposium on Marketing and Innovation Rotterdam, 28 May 2014 Yves Leterme Deputy Secretary-General Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
2 The OECD is the global organisation that drives better policies for better lives analyses, measures and compares experiences and policies to give advice that helps raise living standards globally aims for a stronger, cleaner, fairer world through efforts such as.. Restoring confidence and financial stability Tackling climate change Fighting international tax evasion and corruption
3 Fast facts Established: 1961 Headquarters: Paris OECD Centres: Berlin, Mexico City, Tokyo, Washington Members: 34 Secretary-General: Angel Gurría (Mexico) Secretariat staff: Annual budget: 347 million (2012) Nearly 300 expert committees and working groups with participation of +100 countries
4 OECD s global reach Ongoing membership talks with Russia 34 member countries Newest members: Chile Estonia Israel Slovenia Key Partners: Brazil China India Indonesia South Africa
5 Outline of the talk 1 Economic Outlook and Near- term (Macro) Policy Challenges 2 Medium- term (Structural ) Policy Challenges 3 Special Focus: Beyond the middle- income trap 4 Main messages
6 Growth prospects in emerging economies"
7 Outlook: Emerging Asia remain resilient, while China and India will moderate gradually Real GDP Growth of Southeast Asia, China and India (annual percentage changes) ASEAN- 6 countries Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand CLMV countries Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Viet Nam Average of ASEAN (*) (**) 2 large economies in Emerging Asia China India Average of Emerging Asia Notes: The cut- off date for data is 6 September Emerging Asia includes ASEAN 10 countries plus China and India. (*) Excludes Myanmar (**) Excludes Brunei Darussalam and Myanmar. Source: OECD Development Centre, MPF
8 Domes[c demand and emerging middle class in Asia Popula[on share of middle class PopulaNon with consumpnon expenditure of $2- $20 person per day and $5- $20 person per day in 2005 PPP$ Source: Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2013:With Perspectives on China and India, CEIC
9 Rapid ageing of the popula[on in Asia Percentage of popula[on aged 65 or over (% of total popula[on) FORECAST Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam China India OECD average Source: UN; Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2011/12, OECD Development Centre
10 Emerging Asia con[nues to remain an a]rac[ve des[na[on for investment Notes: China includes Mainland, Taiwan province, Macao and Hong Kong. Southeast Asia does not include Timor- Leste. Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report Foreign direct investment inflows (in billions USD) Southeast Asia China and India
11 Key macroeconomic policy challenges to sustaining healthy growth Managing the spill over effects of capital flows o o Focus on implemen[ng structural policies to reap the benefits of capital inflows Greater regional co- ordina[on to deal with capital flows Fostering closer economic co- opera[on and integra[on in the region o o ASEAN needs to step up efforts to ensure that economic integra[on remains on track Narrow development gaps and enhance regional integra[on
12 Downside risk to growth in the near- term, from financial vola[lity and capital ouflow " Current account balances and changes in nominal exchange rates Indonesia India Source: OECD development Centre s calcula[on based on na[onal sources. Malaysia Thailand Philippines Singapore Change in exchange rate against USD, June- December 2013 China Current account balance as % of GDP, 3Q2013
13 Interna[onal reserves posi[ons have improved USD Millions Southeast Asia and India Interna[onal Reserves USD Billions China Brunei Darussalam Cambodia India Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Note: UNCTAD es[mate for Lao PDR Source: Interna[onal Financial Sta[s[cs (IFS)
14 While development gaps have narrowed, they remain significant ASEAN- OECD Narrowing Development Gap Indicators (NDGIs): Dispari[es between CLMV and ASEAN- 6, 2012 Poverty Gap Sub- Index Tourism Gap Sub- Index Infrastructure Gap Sub- Index , ,2 1,6 3,1 3,8 3,1 Human Resource Development Gap Sub- Index ICT Gap Sub- Index Trade and Investment Gap Sub- Index Note: Each sub- index of the NDGI, whose value ranges from 0 to 10 base points where 0 denotes no gap and 10 the widest gap is built from mul[ple variables within six key policy areas shown above. Source: ASEAN Secretariat and OECD Development Centre.
15 Searching for a new growth model and development strategy Medium- term development plans of Southeast Asia, China and India Source: OECD Development Centre based on na[onal sources.
16 Key structural policies in the region Human capital / educa[on development SME / private sector development Infrastructure development Tax, fiscal reforms Financial sector development Green growth strategy / disaster risk management Informal economy
17 Challenges to sustain growth beyond the middle- income trap over the long- term Best scenario simula[on of es[mated [me required to become high income countries for selected Asian middle income countries (years) Malaysia China Thailand Indonesia Philippines Viet Nam India in 2020 in 2026 in 2031 in 2042 in 2051 in 2058 in Note: Based on World Bank s criterion for classifying economies, high income countries are defined as having GNI per capita above USD in Growth prospects in this simula[on are in line with MPF Popula[on projec[ons are based on UN data. Source: OECD Development Centre.
18 Structural policies are needed to enhance produc[vity Historical decomposi[on of output gap (%, ) a) Indonesia b) Philippines Source: MPF-SAEO 2011/12, Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2011/12, OECD Development Centre
19 Ins[tu[onal capaci[es must be enhanced, together with closer regional integra[on OECD PISA score in Southeast Asia and OECD countries, by area, 2012 World Bank Doing Business indicators in Asia (rankings out of 185 countries) Source: World Bank (2012b), Doing Business Smarter Regula[ons for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, World Bank, Washington D.C. Note: PISA scale was set such that approximately two- thirds of students across OECD countries score between 400 and 600 points. Gaps of 72, 62 and 75 points in reading, mathema[cs and science scores, respec[vely, are equivalent to one proficiency level. Source: OECD, PISA database.
20 Service sector development needs to be reinvigorated Composi[on of services sector in Asia, by type, 1990 and 2010 Traditional Services Wholesale and retail trade Modern Services China India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Thailand Singapore Notes: Modern services comprise finance, business, and ICT services; traditional services comprise all other services. Sources: OECD Development Centre`s calculation based on CEIC database; Noland, M., Park, D. and Estrada, G. B. (2012), Developing the Service Sector as Engine of Growth for Asia: An Overview, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 320, November 2012.
21 To develop services sector, especially modern services, regulatory barriers must be removed The OECD Indicators of Product Market Regula[on (PMR) are a comprehensive and interna[onally- comparable set of indicators that measure the degree to which policies promote or inhibit compe[[on in areas of the product market where compe[[on is viable. The coded informa[on is normalised over a scale of 0 (=least restric[ve) to 6 (=most restric[ve), reflec[ng increasing restric[veness of regulatory provisions for compe[[on. The indicator of administra[ve regula[on is a simple average of the two indicators "Regulatory and administra[ve opacity" and "Administra[ve burdens on startups " in the domain "Barriers to entrepreneurship". Domes[c economic regula[on is the simple average of "Public ownership", "Involvement in business opera[on" and Barriers to compe[[on. Source: OECD, Product Market Regula[on Database OECD Product Market Regula[on (PMR) indicators in BRIICS, Japan and Korea, Brazil China India Indonesia Russian South Africa Japan Korea Federa[on Overall product market regula[on Domes[c economic regula[on Administra[ve regula[on
22 Main messages Ø The medium- term outlook for Southeast Asia remain favourable, with growth of 5.4% in the next five years. o To realise this growth poten[al, the region needs to manage spillover effects of capital flows and press on the efforts to foster closer economic co- opera[on and integra[on Ø New growth and development strategies must include structural policy reforms to ensure sustained and robust produc[vity growth. Ø Over the longer term, some countries face difficult challenges to grow beyond the middle- income trap. o Ins[tu[onal capaci[es must be enhanced, together with closer regional integra[on o Factory Asia needs to evolve and modern services sector must be further developed to boost technological progress and produc[vity growth
23 Thank you for your attention 23
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