UPDATES IN STATISTICAL FRAMEWORKS

Transcription

1 Updates in Statistical Frameworks High level Meeting, Vladivostok, September 2014 Robert Dippelsman, Reproductions of this material, or any parts of it, should refer to the as the source. UPDATES IN STATISTICAL FRAMEWORKS 1. Cross Cutting Themes 2. Balance of payments and international investment position 3. Natural resource wealth 4. Government finance statistics 5. Balance Bl sheets/ sectoral accounts / linkages 2 1

2 Methodological guidance is well developed: foundation for globally comparable statistics; harmonized to allow linkages between different datasets 3 (1) Updates in Statistical Frameworks: Cross cutting Themes Issue: Increasing multi country production Goods for processing Multi country Single good produced in two or more countries Assembler doesn t own goods, just gets production fee Attribution of value added e.g., iphone is Made in China Trade in value added Manipulation for tax reasons Merchanting Managing goods flows without physically handling them Services too SOLUTIONS: More detailed data, emphasize change of ownership rather than physical movements 4 2

3 (1) Updates in Statistical Frameworks: Cross cutting Themes ISSUE: Growth and innovation in financial sector Measuring financial production Often hidden as margin (interest, buy sell spread) Financial instruments Financial derivatives, asset backed securities, Build up up of risks Shadow banking Special purpose vehicles SOLUTIONS: More guidance in manuals 5 (1) Updates in Statistical Frameworks: Cross cutting Themes ISSUE: Analysis turns to balance sheets Asset price volatility Intellectual property assets, research and development Debt data availability Debt composition Maturity Currency Hidden liabilities Pension obligations Shadow banking Contingent liabilities SOLUTIONS: More detailed data, manuals and global databases on debt, more guidance in manuals on assets and asset prices. 6 3

4 (1) Updates in Statistical Frameworks: Cross cutting Themes Issue: Contagion between sectors and economies Balance sheet is major source of risk (debt, currency mismatch, maturity mismatch, hidden liabilities) Interconnectedness and spillovers as policy concerns Between sectors Including from financial sector to nonfinancial sectors Between countries SOLUTIONS: more detailed data, sectoral accounts, data by partner country, to whom from whom dimension to data. 7 (2) Developments in Balance of Payments Statistics International guidance materials: BPM6 incorporated changes due to globalization, financial innovation, balance sheet analysis and linkages with other datasets; 8 4

5 (2) Developments in Balance of Payments Statistics ctd. Detailed guidance Compilation Guide (draft available) In May 2014, IMF released the External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (2013 EDS Guide) Specialized guides on remittances, reserves, direct investment, portfolio investment 9 (2) Developments in Balance of Payments Statistics ctd. Implementation of new standards Countries reporting BPM6 data: BOP: 52; IIP: 41 (as of June 30) All EU and Japan to follow during 2014; IMF World Economic Outlook has moved to BPM6 (and will introduce the IIP in the next WEO round April 2015) Quarterly External Debt Statistics database will be updated to BPM6 basis by end 2014 SDDS: quarterly International Investment Position will bemandatoryby by Sept 2014 Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey is now semi annual (beginning this year) Countries also started to report CPIS Enhancements (e.g., Institutional sector of nonresident issuer; short positions) CPIS Guide will be updated 10 5

6 (2) Developments in Balance of Payments Statistics ctd. Implementation ctd. Coordinated Direct Investment Survey about 101 participating economies started the Bilateral Asymmetries Project: To bring to the attention of CDIS participants large bilateral asymmetries between their CDIS reported data and data reported by their main counterpart economies. CDIS Guide will be updated 11 (3) Developments in Statistics on Natural Resources For about one third of countries, resource industries are macro critical Projects to identify international standards for measuring Government resource revenue Resource contributions to GDP Borderlines which industries? how much processing? suppliers? Topical Trust Fund for Managing Natural Resource Wealth; Ulaanbaatar Group; Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative 12 6

7 (3) Developments in Statistics on Natural Resources ctd. 13 (4) Developments in Government Finance Statistics Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 Comprehensive set of integrated accounts Harmonized with SNA 2008 and ESA 2010 Governments often have their own accounting systems (non standard classifications, missing extrabudgetary agencies, cash only, limited balance sheet data) but increasing need to follow statistical standards (international comparability, linkages to other sectors, avoiding gaps). Supporting Manuals Public Sector Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (2011) Developing Country Guide (2011) Quarterly Guide for Government Finance Statistics (2013) 14 7

8 (4) Developments in Government Finance Statistics Quarterly Public Sector Debt Statistics Online Database (QPSDS) Currently over 70 countries report quarterly gross debt, promoting consistent data across international organizations based on Public Sector Debt Statistics methodology Can be accessed at No Data Reported Central Government General Government Full Public Sector 15 (4) Developments in Government Finance 2. Statistics Managing Natural Resource Wealth IMF Staff Reports: internationally comparable fiscal tables (GFSM) Public Sector Debt Statistics Database created Government Finance Statistics Advisory Committee created International Public Sector Accounting (IPSASB) cooperation intensified Fiscal Transparency Code and Assessments upgraded 2013 IMF s Fiscal Monitor established in 2009 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) modernized 2011 Debt Management Guidelines updated in 2014 Europe: Six Pack Council Directive /85/EU adopted in 2011 Africa: regional fiscal data harmonization (EAC, WAEMU) 16 8

9 (4) Developments in Government Finance Statistics ctd. Modernizing the framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) has become necessary, particularly in light of the recent crisis and rising sustainability concerns in some advanced economies. Level of scrutiny trigger: Is public debt over % of GDP? Central Government Gross Debt (% GDP) Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Post crisis debt overnment Liabilities Go 17 (4) Developments in Government Finance Statistics ctd. In 2011, the IMF adopted a risk based approach to DSAs for all marketaccess countries Data coverage to be based on internationally recognized statistical methodology High risk state run enterprises to be assessed Gross and net debt may be assessed Health and pension related issues to be addressed Contingent liability module added 18 9

10 (4) Developments in Government Finance Statistics ctd. IMF Debt Management Guidelines Updated din 2014 Designed to assist policymakers to strengthen the quality of public debt management and reduce their country s vulnerability to domestic and external shocks. Institutional and instrument coverage to be specified High priority: accurate debt recording and reporting systems This is required for producing debt data and ensuring timely payment of debt service, for improving the quality of budgetary reporting and the transparency of government financial accounts. The management information system should capture all relevant cash flows, and should be fully integrated into the government's accounting system. 19 (4) Developments in Government Finance Statistics ctd. Council Directive 2011/85/EU on requirements for budgetary frameworks of the Member Statest is part of the Enhanced Economic Governance package (so called "six pack adopted by the European Parliament and Council in 2011). Accounting system to be suitable for ESA general government data Public availability of datasets that are highly relevant for fiscal monitoring timely high frequency data for all general government subsectors bridge table between public accounts and ESA data data on contingent liabilities and other indicators having potential impact on the fiscal stance (guarantees, debt of public corporations, PPPs, pensions, nonperforming loans)

11 (4) IMF Staff Reports reflect countries limited capacity Countries Reporting Data on Government Balance Sheets GFSY 2008 GFSY 2013 GFSY Full balance sheet Financial balance sheet Liabilities only Source: Government Finance Statistics Yearbook (GFSY) 21 (4) Government Finance Statistics Advisory Committee (GFSAC) GFSAC created in 2009 for global lconsultation on update of GFSM in line with 2008 SNA Two meetings held in Washington GFSAC with broader mandate to advise on development of government finance statistics to be launched by the IMF in 2015 (membership by invitation) 22 11

12 (4) Government Finance Statistics and IPSASB Accounting data key source of government finance statistics Harmonization with internationally recognized accounting standards intensified since the crisis. IMF represented in International Public Sector Accounting Standards Board (IPSASB) IPSASB represented in GFS Advisory Committee Partnership resulted in: GFSM 2014, Appendix 6 IPSASB Consultation Paper, IPSASs and Government Finance Statistics Reporting Guidelines 23 (4) Updated IMF Fiscal Transparency Code (2013) Update reflects lessons of the crisis and greater emphasis on statistical methodology: broader institutional coverage of fiscal reports, more comprehensive information about government balance sheets, more frequent and timely fiscal reporting, better analysis of fiscal risks, sub national entities and public corporations, improved consistency between fiscal forecasts, in year fiscal reporting, and year end fiscal data. Six country assessments have been conducted jointly by the Fiscal Affairs and Statistics Departments under the new framework 24 12

13 (4) Research: The Significance of Extrabudgetary Units in Central Government The Number of Extrabudgetary Units for Selected Countries SINGAPORE EL SALVADOR KOREA, REP. OF CANADA JAPAN COLOMBIA INDONESIA MADAGASCAR HUNGARY SOUTH AFRICA PORTUGAL SLOVENIA GREECE FRANCE ,000 Note: these are not included in Budgetary Fiscal data Extrabudgetary Units 25 (4) Research: The Role of Nonfinancial Assets in Debt and Deficit Management General Government Assets and Liabilities (Percent of GDP) 26 13

14 (4) What s Next for GFS? Surge in demand for fiscal data will not go away. Global statistical community has taken major steps to address fiscal data requirements since the financial crisis. Methodological frameworks are in place. Globally comparable, timely, and accessible data are lagging: Quarterly general government data (released within a quarter) Balance sheet data: full instrument/institutional coverage of debt and assets Source data: Linking budget data with government finance statistics Data on pension, health, and other functions of government Further down the road: Data on the public sector 27 (5) Balance Sheet Approach Analysis of linkages in economy linkages between sectors, between real and financial operations, between economy and rest of the world requires Bringing together different data sources often from different agencies Monetary and financial statistics Bl Balance of payments Government finance statistics National accounts which requires 28 14

15 (5) Balance Sheet Approach which requires Linkages in statistical operations More difficult when in different agencies Possible delineation of responsibilities: Statistics office responsible for bringing different data sources together? or Central bank for financial; Statistics office for non financial? Increased need for consistency of classification and valuation e.g., inconsistency government deficit from government accounts vs. government financing from financial data Inconsistencies will become more apparent in interconnectedness view 29 (6) What Next? Developments in manuals, frameworks, and policy concerns considerably ahead of country practice Training, manuals, technical assistance needed. Implementation according to national circumstances 30 15

16 Thank you Any questions? 31 16