the ESCB to the financial crisis:

Transcription

1 Response by the statistics function of the ESCB to the financial crisis: The perspective of a National Central Bank João Cadete de Matos Director Statistics Department World Statistics Day 2015 ECB Conference on the European Statistics by the European System of Central Banks Frankfurt am Main,

2 Five Lessons We Should Have Learned From the Financial Crisis Lesson 1: Do we actually need Balance of Payments statistics? Lesson 2: Should we use more the Financial Accounts statistics? Lesson 3: Have microdata helped in the response to the crisis? Lesson 4: Should statistics communication be a priority? Lesson 5: Have people proved to be the most important resource? 2

3 Lesson 1 Do we actually need Balance of Payments statistics? 3

4 Statistics of Investment, National Saving, and Current and Capital Account Current and Capital Account Investment National Saving 30 % of GDP

5 Lesson 2 Should we use more the Financial Accounts statistics? 5

6 National Financial Accounts Statistics Financial savings by institutional sector 15% 10% in % of GDP i 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Restofthe the World General Government Resident private sector 6

7 Lesson 3 Have microdata helped in the response to the crisis? 7

8 September 16 th 2008: a day to recall for the Securities Statistics Integrated System (SSIS) 8

9 Increase in Securities Statistics Integrated System (SSIS) microdata requests 40 Rough estimation: Data volume almost tripled (*) Agregated data Micro data (*) 2015 numbers are an estimated based on the first semester data requests 9

10 After2010: Sovereign Debt Crisis Bailouts: 1. Greece May Ireland November Portugal June

11 June 2011 The Economic and Financial Assistance Programme (EFAP) Portugal,

12 The Economic and Financial Assistance Programme (EFAP): short tdescription 12

13 Statistical response by Banco de Portugal The demand for higher detailed statistics, either on regular and also on ad hoc basis, has increased dramatically, namely regarding: Financial sector Public sector (GG + SOEs) Financingandindebtedness of the whole economy The several micro databases managed by the Statistics Department of the BdP played a paramount role in responding to these new demands 13

14 EFAP new statistical requirements (selected) Financing of general government (M) General government debt General government debt vs. performance criterion (M) Deficit debt adjustment (Q) GG debt held by GG (M) Central government transactions in liabilities and assets (M) General government financing requirements and sources (M) Holders of GG debt by instrument (M) Lending to the economy (M) Amortization plan (Q) Assets and liabilities of the Portuguese banking system (M) Assets and liabilities of BdP (M) Government debt, Portuguese and foreign, held by banks (M) Monitoring of corporate and households' indebtedness (Q) Financial Accounts, by counterpart sector (Q) Funding plans (M/Q) 2012 ~ series with monthly frequency ~ series with quarterly frequency 14

15 July st Workshop on monitoring of corporate and household indebtedness Relevance of: The Central Credit Register (since 1978) The Central Balance Sheet Data Office (since 1983) 15

16 April 2013 New reporting system stemfor BoPstatistics 16

17 17

18 Lesson 4 Should statistics communication be a priority? 18

19 December 2010: Start of the Central Balance Sheet Data Office (CBSO) Studies and organization of the 1 st CBSO Conference Madeira 19

20 June 2011 Statistical Bulletin: main Indicators 21 pages 76 graphics 47 tables 848 statistical series 20

21 February 2012 New chapter of the Statistical ti ti Bulletin on non financial sector indebtedness 21

22 Monthly T+45 days New chapter to the Statistical Bulletin CBSO Domestic loans (CCR) Firm size and activity sector (NACE) Private vs. state owned Securities i (SSIS) Statistical databases Debt new dimensions of analysis By creditor External operations (BoP / IIP) Type of instrument Loans Debt securities Tradecredits di 22

23 February 2012 Launch of BP Stat Mobile 23

24 May 2012 Publication of new indicators concerning loans granted by the resident financial sector to the exporting companies 24

25 Loans granted by the resident financial sector 6 Loans to non financial corporations (annual growth rates) 18 Overdue loans ratio of non financial corporations 4 16 in percen ntage in perc centage Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 25

26 October 2012 Statistical supplement about Public Administration's statistics Public Sector Non financial public sector General Government General government entities excluding corporations Public corporations included in the General government Public nonfinancial corporations not included in General Government Public non financial corporations Public financial corporations Public corporations 26

27 October 2013 New statistics on nonfinancial corporations from the Central Balance Sheet Database 27

28 January 2014 Banco de Portugal applies CMFB revision policy to all the statistical domains 28

29 March 2014 Bringing forward the publication blicationofof monthly statistics on general government debt 29

30 October 2014: New methodological manuals 30

31 Micro databases Back data for FA since 1995 and for BoP/IIP since

32 November 2014: SDDS Plus adherence February 2015: SDDS Plus data transmission Portugal has completed the requirements for adherence to the International Monetary Fund s (IMF s) Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) Plus the highest tier of the Data Standards Initiatives. Louis Marc Ducharme, Director of the IMF s Statistics Department, welcomedportugal sadherence and noted that the dissemination of the new data sets under the SDDS Plus will be invaluable in fostering a deeper understanding and assessment of the performance of Portugal s financial sector, the cross border financiali linkages of Portugal,and the vulnerabilities of the economy to shocks. 32

33 8 (4%) (35%) (61%) 33

34 SDDS Plus New data Categories 34

35 Lesson 5 Have people proved to be the most important resource? 35

36 PEOPLE 36

37 INSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION Workshop on Integrated Management of Micro databases Deepening Business Intelligence within Central Banks Statistical Systems Porto, June

38 INSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION European Committee of Central Balance Sheet Data Offices (ECCBSO) 38

39 TRAINING First course started September

40 Five Lessons We Learned From the Financial Crisis Lesson 1: Do we actually need Balance of Payments statistics? Lesson 2: Should we use more the Financial Accounts statistics? Lesson 3: Have microdata helped in the response to the crisis? Lesson 4: Should statistics communication be a priority? Lesson 5: Have people proved to be the most important resource? Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! 40

41 Thank you for your attention! 41