MONGOLIA: ACTIVITIES AIMED AT IMPROVING MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

Transcription

1 High-level Meeting for Coordinated Implementation of International Standards for Macroeconomic Statistics, Vladivostok 3-4 Sep, 2014 MONGOLIA: ACTIVITIES AIMED AT IMPROVING MACRO B.BADAMTSETSEG NSO, Mongolia 1

2 CONTENTS I. THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACRO II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO- III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING THE IV. CONCLUSION V. FUTURE ACTIVITIES 2

3 I. THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACRO The implementation of Macroeconomic statistics was the integral part of the NSDS NSDS ( ) approved by Parliament Action plan ( ) approved by Statistical Counsel Annual work plan approved by NSO Chairman Next round of NSDS : on going process 3

4 I. THE PLAN TO IMPROVE MACRO The implementation of Macroeconomic statistics was the integral part of the Monstat project. Component A: Improving policy, regulatory, and institutional framework and the organizational structure of the statistical system; Component B: Strengthening the statistical infrastructure; MonStat Project (World Bank) Component C: Upgrading statistical data outputs; Component D: Preparation of an IT-Plan; 4

5 II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO Institutional structure has been set up for improving Macroeconomic statistics and activities have started. Inter-agency working group: Composition: NSO Bank of Mongolia Ministry of Finance Ministry of Economic Development General Customs Office Objectives of the working group: To study changes of SNA 1993 to ensure integration and harmony between 2008 SNA, BPM6 and GFS 2014; To implement 2008 SNA recommendations; To produce core set of economic statistics; To create necessary data sources. 5

6 II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO Implemented activities within the group: Several meetings were organized and the following arrangements were made: Harmony between 2008 SNA, BPM6, and GFSM-2014; Introduction of SUT 2010 s results; Improve calculation of export, import price index and terms of trade index; Update the methodology of foreign trade statistics. Translation GFSM-2014 financed by MOF; Consultant s service on GFSM-2014 provided by IMF. 6

7 II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO Statistical infrastructure has been improved: Systematic revision of questionnaires and creation of data sources for compilation of annual SUT; Technological solution enabling automatic updating of BR database based on GASR data; Introduction of sample survey to economic statistics and start of seasonally adjusted estimations. Latest versions of classifications have been revised and applied: ISIC-4.0 CPC-2.0 COICOP Asset classification 7

8 II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO Methodological foundation was set up for 2008 SNA. Methodologies on: GDP and GNI estimation Quarterly GDP estimation Sector accounts compilation SUT and IOT compilation Balance of payment methodology revised based on BPM6 Price statistics was improved: Calculation of Regional CPI 2010 base year Industrial Production Index Calculation of 2010 base year Construction Cost Index Calculation of HPI 8

9 II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO Related census, surveys and estimations have been carried out CENSUSES COMPILATION NON OBSERVED ECONOMY SURVEY Agricultural census, Establishment census, First time, the results of SUT and IOT were disseminated to users in details. Some main indicators were compiled according to SNA 2008 recommendations. First time all (N1-N7) fields of NOE were covered. Base data of informal sector were created. Results of NOE were integrated to the annual GDP estimation. The internationally comparative data were collected. GDP has estimated based on SUT and revised the estimation at constant 9 price of The GDP dynamics has been revised for

10 II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO Scope of the implementation of the SNA Milestone Level 1 Basic indicators of GDP Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 GNI and other primary indicators Institutional i sector accounts (first step: for all institutionali i sectors production accounts, current, capital and financial account) Institutional sector accounts (intermediate step 1: for all institutional sectors current accounts and capital account) Level 5 Institutional sector accounts (intermediate step 2: for all institutional sectors financial accounts) Level 6 Other changes of volume accounts and balance sheet 10

11 II. CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF MACRO The core set of economic statistics: Availability of Core set of Economic Statistics /ESCAP/ Series International (ESCAP) Mongolia Incorporated indicators in NSDS, Mongolia Prices and costs Demand and output Income and wealth Money and banking Government Labour market Natural resources and the environment Total Unavailable indicators: Labour costs index, consumer demand, natural resources

12 III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING Bilateral cooperation Visit to ABS: Compilation of National Accounts Economic sector accounting and implementation of SEEA-CF Australian experience on development of the Environmental- Economic accounting Visit to South Korea (NSO and MEGD): Policy in support of green growth; Green growth indicators; Greenhouse gas and registration of waste statistics; Economic and environmental accounting. 12

13 III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF Ulaanbaatar city group-2012 UBCG on Statistics for Economies based on Natural Resources was established in 2012 (UNSC 43 rd Session). Steering Committee (12 countries and IO) and Expert group (13 countries and IO). Membership is still open to other countries. Four work streams were defined. Work stream 1: Develop a harmonized system of standard indicators for data collection Work stream 2: Assess the impact of the mining industry on economies and develop practical recommendations; 13

14 III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF Ulaanbaatar city group-2012 (cont.) Work stream 3 and 4: Develop methodologies and indicators for assessing the impact of mining industry on the social and environmental sector. Mongolia drafted the set of statistical indicators (more than 200 indicators) to measure the impacts of mining industry on economy, society and environment. Structure of the guideline is described. The Group will submit its report to the 46 th Session of UNSC. 14

15 III. COOPERATION AND INITIATIVES FOR IMPROVING OF Adapted global Assessment (UNECE, Eurostat, EFTA, ESCAP)- 2013: The first country in the Asia-Pacific region. Main objectives of AGA are to evaluate NSS as a whole, assess official statistics development and provide insight and recommendations for improving the entire system, operations, statistical activities and related capacities. Recommendations: Recommendations were provided as a future direction to further improve economic statistics. Recommendations were given to prioritize the 2008 SNA changes and start to implement more important issues. Information: International conference on Global assessment as basis for the development of a statistical system to be held on 1-2 October 2014 in UB. 15

16 IV. CONCLUSION 1. The changes to reflect in NA. 1 CHANGES Research and development IMPLEMENTATION Now: R&D falls into the fixed asset classification. Future: Firstly, to determine whether R&D has return or not. If it has return then it assumed that a statistical unit and output will be estimated by a single unit. 2 Calculation of FISIM Now: FISIM is distributed to IC and final consumption in the domestic production framework. Future: FISIM will be distributed to export and import. 3 4 Output of Central Bank Output of nonlife insurance services Now: We use cost approach by using the formula: output = IC+ compensation + CFC Future: Identify Central Bank services in 3 groups and estimate output Now: Output is calculated by using the following formula: output = insurance premium -insurance claim + other income Future: NSO will choose a suitable one of 3 approaches for estimating non life-insurance output. 16

17 IV. CONCLUSION 1. The changes to reflect in NA (cont.) 5 6 CHANGES Valuation of output for own final use by households Non observed economy 7 Measurement of storage 8 Weapons system 9 Consumption of fixed capital IMPLEMENTATION Now: In progress. From the Agr. census result we got more data sources of output for own final use by household of agriculture. Future: Other economic activities will be estimated. Now: Completed. Now: In progress. Future: Separate estimation will be made for storage activity. Now: Weapons system is classified in fixed asset according to the asset classification, hence it is included to the GFCF in GDP by expenditure approach. Future: Estimation will be improved. Now: Deprecation rate is used for estimation. Future: We will introduce PIM method in our GDP estimation. 17

18 IV. CONCLUSION 1. The changes to reflect in NA (cont.) CHANGES Institutional units and sectors Refinement of the treatment and definition of financial instruments and assets The scope of transactions concerning government and public sector Harmonization between concepts and classification of the SNA and BPM6 IMPLEMENTATION Now: Business register has been expanded by statistical unit based on the Establishment Census. Future: Institutional sector s classification will be revised and approved. Now: It is reflected in the institutional sector accounts methodology. Asset classification was revised and approved. Future: To study about financial instrument. Data source of financial accounts will be applied and financial account will be compiled in experimental base. Now: Set up inter-agency working group Future: Plan is to translate GFS 2014, develop national methodology, improve data sources. We will do list of public sector enterprises and classify them into appropriate sector. Now: ВРM methodology was revised and approved. Future: Collaborate with Central Bank to ensure data quality. 18

19 To elaborate activities to further improve macroeconomic statistics and incorporate into the next NSDS; To compile annual SUT on experimental basis; To transfer/use Chain index; To improve Government Finance Statistics; To compile financial accounts and other changes of volume accounts; To strengthen and intensify cooperation and activities under cooperation arrangements: Allocation of FISIM IV. FUTURE ACTIVITIES Implement changes in insurance sector. 19

20 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Tel :(976-11) Fax :(976-11) Web page : nso@magicnet.mn 20