THE LEBANON BRIEF. ISSUE 929 Week of 27 July - 1 August, 2015

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1 Your Investment Reference THE LEBANON BRIEF ISSUE 929 Week of 27 July - 1 August, 2015 ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT BLOMINVEST Bank Headquarters Bab Idriss, Beirut, Lebanon T (01) /2 F (+961) research@blominvestbank.com

2 TABLE OF CONTENT FINANCIAL MARKETS 3 Equity Market 3 Foreign Exchange Market 5 Money & Treasury Bills Markets 5 Eurobond Market 6 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL NEWS 7 Lebanese Occupancy Rate Improved Yearly to 56% in H1 7 Value of Cleared Checks Dropped Annually by 7.76% in H1 8 Lebanon ranked 63rd on the world s richest and poorest list 9 CORPORATE DEVELOPMENTS 10 BLOM Bank s Net Profit Up by 6% in H Byblos Bank Consolidated Profits Grew by 1.07% to $70.1M in H Banque BEMO Consolidated Profits Grew by 33.18% to $7.97M in H BLC Bank s Net Profits Reached $23.14M in H1 11 Societé Générale De Banque au Liban S.A.L Issues Preferred Shares FOCUS IN BRIEF 13 Beirut Stock Exchange: H Performance Review 13 This report is published for information purposes only. The information herein has been compiled from, or based upon sources we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee or accept responsibility for its completeness or accuracy. This document should not be construed as a solicitation to take part in any investment, or as constituting any representation or warranty on our part. The consequences of any action taken on the basis of information contained herein are solely the responsibility of the recipient.

3 The Lebanon Brief Page 3 of 19 FINANCIAL MARKETS Equity Market Stock Market 31/07/ /07/2015 % Change BLOM Stock Index* 1, , % Average Traded Volume 71, , % Average Traded Value 697,548 2,316, % *22 January 1996 = 1000 BLOM Stock Index HI: 1, LO: 1, Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Banking Sector Mkt 31/07/ /07/2015 % Change BLOM (GDR) BSE $9.98 $ % BLOM Listed BSE $9.60 $ % BLOM (GDR) LSE $9.99 $ % Audi (GDR) BSE $6.00 $ % Audi Listed BSE $6.17 $ % Audi (GDR) LSE $6.00 $ % Byblos (C) BSE $1.60 $ % Byblos (GDR) LSE $80.50 $ % Bank of Beirut (C) BSE $18.40 $ % BLC (C) BSE $1.70 $ % Fransabank (B) OTC $27.00 $ % BEMO (C) BSE $1.90 $ % Mkt 31/07/ /07/2015 % Change Banks Preferred Shares Index * % Audi Pref. E BSE $ $ % Audi Pref. F BSE $ $ % Audi Pref. G BSE $ $ % Audi Pref. H BSE $ $ % Byblos Preferred 08 BSE $ $ % Byblos Preferred 09 BSE $ $ % Bank of Beirut Pref. E BSE $25.50 $ % Bank of Beirut Pref. I BSE $25.50 $ % Bank of Beirut Pref. H BSE $25.60 $ % BLOM Preferred 2011 BSE $10.10 $ % BEMO Preferred 2013 BSE $ $ % * 25 August 2006 = 100 The Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) revealed a lackluster performance through an illiquid week during this ongoing summer season, with the BLOM Stock Index (BSI) dropping 0.45% to 1, points. The average traded volume and value fell from last week s 318,416 shares worth $2.32M, to 71,207 shares worth $697,548. Accordingly, the market capitalization decreased from $9.96B to $9.91B The BSI however managed to outperform the S&P Pan Arab Composite Large-Mid-Cap Index, the S&P AFE 40 Index and the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index (MSCI) which saw respective weekly losses of 1.94%, 1.51% and 3.20%. On the regional front, only the Egyptian Bourse realized gains, as it increased by a weekly 1.29%. This was possibly due to the positive economic data over the week as the country s tourism revenues rose by 3.1% in addition to the positive financial results of some listed companies during H1. Furthermore, the completion of the new Suez Canal helped improve investor sentiment. The worst performer was Saudi Arabia, as its Bourse downturned by 2.93%, over the week. This might be the result of worries over the Chinese economy and global oil oversupply, which had pushed Brent crude oil price to fall by 3.70% to $51.82/barrel. Dubai s and Abu Dhabi s Stock Market followed, with respective weekly declines of 1.70% and 1.34%. Back to the Beirut Stock Exchange, the banking sector captured 83.18% of the total traded value during the week. The GDR shares of BLOM and Audi lost 0.20% and 0.17% to close the week at $9.98 and $6.00, respectively. In addition, Audi listed shares also declined by 0.32% to $6.17 on Friday. Worth noting that Audi released their financials this week, recording H1 profits of $202M with a return on equity of 13.8%. On the other hand, the preferred shares exhibited a progress, where the BLOM Preferred Stock Index (BPSI) added a weekly 0.10% to points. In details, Byblos preferred shares 2009 improved by a weekly 1.29% to $102.00, which was partially offset by the 0.49% drop to $10.00 on BLOM preferred shares 2011.

4 The Lebanon Brief Page 4 of 19 Real Estate Mkt 31/07/ /07/2015 % Change Solidere (A) BSE $11.12 $ % Solidere (B) BSE $11.14 $ % Solidere (GDR) LSE $11.15 $ % On the London Stock Exchange, Solidere GDRs lost 1.33% to $ GDRs of Bank Audi also went down by 1.64% to $6.00 while BLOM Bank increased weekly by 0.91% to 9.91 Manufacturing Sector Mkt 31/07/ /07/2015 % Change HOLCIM Liban BSE $15.15 $ % Ciments Blancs (B) BSE $3.30 $ % Ciments Blancs (N) BSE $2.75 $ % In the real-estate sector, Solidere shares classes A and B dropped 2.46% and 2.28% to close the week at respective quotes of $11.12 and $ This was possibly due to the ex-dividend date of those shares falling on the 29th of July. In the industrial sector, HOLCIM shares lost 1.97% to $ The industrial sector witnessed a positive showing, where HOLCIM and Ciment Blancs Bearer shares gained 1.68% and 9.27% to $15.15 and $3.30 over the week, respectively. Funds For the coming week, the BSI will probably be affected by the ongoing release of some banks financial statements, in addition to any potential political developments. BLOM Cedars Balanced Fund Tranche A BLOM Cedars Balanced Fund Tranche B BLOM Cedars Balanced Fund Tranche C Mkt 30/07/ /07/2015 % Change $7, $7, % $4, $4, % $5, $5, % BLOM Bond Fund $9, $9, % Retail Sector Mkt 31/07/ /07/2015 % Change RYMCO BSE $3.23 $ % ABC (New) OTC $27.00 $ % Tourism Sector Mkt 31/07/ /07/2015 % Change Casino Du Liban OTC $ $ % SGHL OTC $7.00 $ %

5 The Lebanon Brief Page 5 of 19 Foreign Exchange Market Lebanese Forex Market 31/07/ /07/2015 %Change Dollar / LP 1, , % Euro / LP 1, , % Swiss Franc / LP 1, , % Yen / LP % Sterling / LP 2, , % NEER Index** % *Close of GMT 09:00+2 **Nominal Effective Exchange Rate; Base Year Jan 2006=100 **The unadjusted weighted average value of a country s currency relative to all major currencies being traded within a pool of currencies. The NEER represents the approximate relative price a consumer will pay for an imported good. Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Money & Treasury Bills Markets Money Market Rates 30/07/ /07/2015 Change bps Overnight Interbank 3.00% 2.75% 0 BDL 45-dayCD 3.57% 3.57% 0 BDL 60-day CD 3.85% 3.85% 0 Treasury Yields 30/07/ /07/2015 Change bps 3-M TB yield 4.39% 4.39% 0 6-M TB yield 4.87% 4.87% 0 12-M TB yield 5.08% 5.08% 0 24-M TB coupon 5.84% 5.84% 0 36-M TB coupon 6.50% 6.50% 0 60-M TB coupon 6.74% 6.74% 0 Demand for the dollar in the Lebanese Forex market steadied during the week as the Lebanese pound s peg against the dollar stabilized at $/LP 1,503 1,507 with a midprice of $/LP 1,505. Foreign assets (excluding gold) at the Central Bank grew by a monthly 0.7% to reach $38.86B at the end of June. As for the dollarization rate of private sector deposits, it slid from 65.71% in December 2014 to 65.15% by May. The euro gained some ground against the dollar over the past week rising by 0.08% to stand at /$ In fact, investors have not fully factored in the September hike in the US Federal Reserve s rate and are still holding off on making big moves on the market. Gold therefore recovered mildly from last week s $1,079.46/ounce to $1,091.26/ounce, not only because of a weaker dollar over the past week but also because of concerns regarding China s market crunch. By Friday 31 July, 2015, 11:30 pm Beirut time, the dollarpegged LP depreciated against the euro going from /LP 1, to /LP 1, The Nominal effective exchange Rate (NEER) decreased by a weekly 0.40% to points, bringing its year-to-date gains to 12.20%. During the week ending July , broad Money M3 increased by LP 182B ($121.01M), to reach LP 181,763B ($120.57B) with a 4.59% yearly growth and a 2.46% y-t-d uptick. In contrast, M1 decreased by LP 286B ($189.85M) due to the decrease in demand deposits by LP 113B ($74.96M) and the decline in money in circulation by LP 173B ($114.76M). Total deposits (excluding demand deposits) went up by LP 468B ($310.87M), over the week, given the LP 94B growth in term and saving deposits and the $248M expansion in deposits denominated in foreign currencies. Over the above mentioned period, the broad money dollarization rate experienced an up-tick from 57.97% on July 9, to 58.12% on July 16. According to the Central Bank, the overnight interbank rate dropped from 3.00% at the end of April 2015 to 2.75% at the end of May In the TBs auction held on the 23rd of July 2015, the Ministry of Finance raised LP B ($198.85M), through the issuance of bills and notes maturing in 6M and 3Y. The highest demand was achieved on the 3Y notes, with an 84.29% share of total subscriptions, while the 6M bills captured the remaining 15.71%. The 6M bills yielded 4.87% while the coupon rate of the 3Y notes stood at 6.50%. Maturing bills exceeded new subscriptions by LP B ($70.19M).

6 The Lebanon Brief Page 6 of 19 Eurobond Market Eurobonds Index and Yield 30/07/ /07/2015 Change Year to Date BLOM Bond Index (BBI)* % 0.94% Weighted Yield** 5.49% 5.45% 3 47 Weighted Spread*** *Base Year 2000 = 100; includes US$ sovereign bonds traded on the OTC market ** The change is in basis points ***Against US Treasuries (in basis points) Lebanese Government Eurobonds Maturity - Coupon 30/07/2015 Price* 23/07/2015 Price* Weekly Change% 30/07/2015 Yield 23/07/2015 Yield Weekly Change bps 2016, Nov % % 4.13% 4.05% , Mar % % 4.27% 4.29% , Oct % % 4.61% 4.46% , Jun % % 4.60% 4.60% , Nov % % 4.85% 4.74% , Apr % % 4.98% 4.98% , Mar % % 5.35% 5.29% , Apr % % 5.40% 5.34% , Jun % % 5.44% 5.41% , Apr % % 5.56% 5.51% , Oct % % 5.77% 5.75% , Jan % % 5.83% 5.83% , Dec % % 6.04% 6.03% , Jun % % 6.08% 6.06% , Nov % % 6.29% 6.27% , Nov % % 6.34% 6.32% 1 Mid Prices ; BLOMINVEST bank Weighted Effective Yield of Eurobonds 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 The BLOM Bond Index (BBI) registered a 0.15% drop over the past week to settle at points. The BBI was outperformed by the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index which grew by a weekly 0.04% to points. The yields on the Lebanese Eurobonds maturing in 5Y and 10Y grew from last week s 5.30% and 6.19% to reach 5.34% and 6.21%, respectively. In the U.S, demand on 5Y notes slightly rose as their yield slid from 1.65% to 1.62% while demand for 10Y US treasuries steadied as shown by their unchanged yield at 2.28%. Accordingly the spread between the yields on the 5Y Lebanese Eurobonds and their US comparable widened from last week s 365 points to 372 basis points (bps) while the 10Y spread broadened from 391 bps to 393 bps. Lebanon s 5Y Credit Default Swaps (CDS) went from last week s bps to bps. 5Y CDS quotes of Saudi Arabia widened from bps to bps, Turkey s 5Y CDS broadened from bps to bps and the 5Y CDS of Dubai grew from bps to bps. Meanwhile, Brazil s 5Y CDS narrowed from bps to bps.

7 The Lebanon Brief Page 7 of 19 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL NEWS Lebanese Occupancy Rate Improved Yearly to 56% in H1 Lebanon s Monthly Occupancy Rate 61% 60% 56% 51% 50% 54% 68% 59% 57% 55% 56% 36% 52% Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Source: EY Middle East Hotel Benchmark Survey According to Ernst & Young Middle East hotel benchmark survey, Lebanon recorded the second largest year-on-year (y-o-y) improvement in its occupancy rate in H1, after Egypt. This goes hand in hand with the fact that tourist activity went up by 13% y-o-y by May of this year, possibly due to the relatively stable security situation in the country, compared to some neighboring nations in the region. Accordingly, Lebanon s occupancy rate increased by 6 percentage points (p.p.) to 56% in the first 6 months of 2015, while Egypt s occupancy rate edged up by 16 p.p. to 48%, registering the highest annual improvement. The latter development mainly is attributed to the better economic and political outlook in Egypt from last year, illustrated by the economic summit that took place in March. The third largest rise in occupancy rates, by June, was depicted in Doha and Kuwait, as they respectively increased by 1 p.p. each to 74% and 55%. Over the same period, the largest downturn in the occupancy rate was in Amman, Jordan which lost 12 p.p yearly to 54% followed by Mekkah, Saudi Arabia which recorded a decrease of 11 p.p y-o-y to 52% by June. These falls might have been due of the enhanced political risk in both countries, following the participation in airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. The third biggest loser was Manama, Bahrain which lost a yearly 3 p.p to 47%. Notably, Dubai remained perched on its pedestal regarding the occupancy rate in the region, with an 83% rate. Concerning Lebanon s average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPar), they jumped by 4.6% and 17.1% to $176 and $99, respectively. In Cairo, the ADR surged 30.5% to $104, while its RevPar doubled to reach $51 by June Not surprisingly, Dubai s ADR and RevPar were the utmost in the region at $272 and $226 respectively, despite losing 6.0% and 7.8% y-o-y, over the same period. Looking at the month of June alone, Beirut declined 11 p.p to 57% from June 2014, with RevPAR losing 16.4% to $104 while the ADR remaining at last year s level of $182. Worth mentioning, the relatively high level recorded in June 2014 was due to the Holy Month of Ramadan.

8 The Lebanon Brief Page 8 of 19 Value of Cleared Checks Dropped Annually by 7.76% in H1 Value of Cleared Checks Y-o-Y by June ($M) 6,479 7,139 7,223 8,177 8,978 9,327 27,570 26,984 27,571 27,357 31,376 27, Value of Local Currency Cleared Checks Value of Foreign Currency Cleared Checks Source: ABL The value of cleared checks fell 7.76% during H1 of this year, which might be due to lower business spending, and the fact that people are possibly substituting payments via checks with various payment cards and e-payments. In fact, the number of checks cleared by Banque du Liban amounted to 6.18M worth $37.23B by June 2015, compared to a larger number of 6.39M checks valued at $40.36B recorded a year earlier. Checks in foreign currencies were the main reason why the total value of cleared checks plunged, as they decreased by 11.08% to $27.90B compared to $31.38B by June On the contrary, the value of checks denominate d in Lebanese Pounds progressed by 3.89% to reach $9.33B. In turn, the dollarization rate of checks retreated from 77.75% to 74.94%, over the same period. The value of returned checks constituted 2.13%, or $794M of the total checks, compared to 1.77% in H1 last year. In the month of June alone, the value of cleared checks declined by 4.36% from June 2014 to stand at $8.38B. The value of checks denominated in foreign currencies (representing 81% of the total) went down by 6.31% y-o-y to $6.79B. In contrast, the value of checks in LBP augmented by 4.94% to $1.59B.

9 The Lebanon Brief Page 9 of 19 Comparative GDP Per Capita for Arab Countries in 2013 Source: Global Finance Magazine UAE Kuwait Saudi Arabia Oman Bahrain Lebanon Libya Tunisia Algeria Egypt Morocco Yemen $0.00 $30,000.00$60,000.00$90, Qatar $120, Lebanon ranked 63rd on the world s richest and poorest list According to the Richest and Poorest Countries in the World for 2013 survey recently released by Global Finance Magazine (GFM) based on data gathered from IMF published reports, Qatar achieved the 1st spot over a total of 184 countries with a GDP (gross domestic product) based on PPP (Purchasing-Power-Parity) per capita of $105,091. Luxembourg and Singapore followed with respective GDP per capita of $79,593 and $61,567. It is worth noting that these 3 countries have maintained the same ranking since On the other hand, the poorest countries in the world were the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe and Burundi with a GDP per capita of $394, $589 and $649, respectively. When it comes to Lebanon, it ranked 63rd with a GDP per capita of $16,127 compared to previous rankings of 58th, 59th and 60th revealed in GFM s reports in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. Thus, Lebanon stood 7th out of the 14 listed Arab countries. Besides Qatar topping the list, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait ranked 2nd and 3rd amongst Arab countries and 8th and 19th worldwide with a GDP per capita of $49,884 and $39,861, respectively. Notably, the poorest countries within the region were Yemen, Jordan and Egypt with a GDP per capita of $2,351, $6,199 and $6,653, respectively.

10 The Lebanon Brief Page 10 of 19 CORPORATE DEVELOPMENTS BLOM Bank s Financial Highlights Loans and Advances to customers Total Assets 27,974,645,439 Customer Deposits Shareholders Equity 31/12/ /06/2015 % change 6,887,967,496 7,000,158, % 23,879,884,577 28,617,164, ,617,316, % 3.09% 2,522,771,476 2,535,897, % Net Profit 179,221,891(*) 190,350, % BLOM Bank s Net Profit Up by 6% in H According to BLOM Bank s first half financial results, net profit rose by 6.21% year-on-year to reach $190.35M. Loans and advances to customers grew by 1.63% year-to-date (y-t-d) to reach $7B and total assets increased by 2.30% to $28.62B. As for customer deposits, they grew by 3.09% y-t-d to $24.62B and shareholders equity advanced by 0.52% y-t-d to $2.54B. (*): Figure for June 2014 Source: BLOM Bank Byblos Bank H Financial Highlights ($B) Customers Deposits Loans and Facilities to Customers 30-Jun Dec % change % % Total Assets % Shareholders Equity % Net Profit ($M) % *From June 2014 to June 2015 Source: Byblos Bank Byblos Bank Consolidated Profits Grew by 1.07% to $70.1M in H Byblos Bank recorded profits of $70.1M in H1 2015, a 1.07% increase from H1 2014, according to their unaudited financial statements. This mainly came on the back of the 8.83% yearly increase in net interest income to $127.82M and despite the annual 10.36% drop in net fees and commissions income to $40.52M. As for total assets, they grew from the beginning of the year by 0.72% to $19.17B although loans and facilities to customers and related parties dropped by 0.94% year-to-date (y-t-d) to $4.68B. On the liabilities side, customers deposits increased by 1.48% y-t-d to $15.95B while total shareholders equity registered a y-t-d fall of 3.72% to $1.62B. Worth mentioning, according to the press release, the Bank s net non-performing loans to net loans was maintained at below 1%, and the coverage ratio of non-performing loans reached 113%. Immediate liquidity with banks and central banks stood at $9.5B, representing 50% of the bank s total assets.

11 The Lebanon Brief Page 11 of 19 Banque BEMO H Financial Highlights ($M) Loans and Facilities to Customers Customers Deposits 30-Jun Dec % change % 1,309 1, % Total Assets 1,574 1, % Shareholders Equity % Net Profit* % *From June 2014 to June 2015 Source: Banque BEMO Banque BEMO Consolidated Profits Grew by 33.18% to $7.97M in H Banque BEMO recorded profits of $7.97M in H1 2015, a 33.18% surge from June 2014, according to their unaudited financial statements. This mainly came on the back of the 1.59% yearly increase in net interest income to $12.13M and the 14.72% improvement in net fees and commissions income to $2.41M. As for total assets, they grew from the beginning of the year by 6.66% to $1.57B mainly due to the increase in loans and facilities to customers and related parties which increased by 8.14% year-todate (y-t-d) to $694.64M. On the liabilities side, customers deposits increased by 7.65% y-t-d to $1.31B while total shareholders equity registered a y-t-d gain of 1.61% to $129.22M. BLC Bank s Net Profits Reached $23.14M in H1 BLC Bank H Financial Highlights ($B) Loans and Facilities to Customers Customers Deposits 30-Jun Dec % change % % Total Assets % Shareholders Equity ($M) % Net Profit ($M)* % *From June 2014 to June 2015 BLC Bank s unaudited financial statements revealed that net profits barely changed year-on-year (y-o-y) with profits of $23.14M in H1 2015, a very slight decrease of 0.57% from H On the statement of financial position, total assets increased by 2.66% year-to-date (y-t-d) to reach $5.52B at the end of the first half of 2015 while loans and facilities to customers dropped by 2.40% year-to-date (y-t-d) to $1.89B. On the liabilities side, customers deposits inched up by 2.69% y-t-d to $4.40B in addition to total shareholders equity edging up by 0.18% y-t-d to settle at $477.87M. Source: BLC Bank

12 The Lebanon Brief Page 12 of 19 Societé Générale De Banque au Liban Yearly Financials ($B) Mar-15 Mar-14 Net Loans & Advances to Customers Deposits from Customers Total Assets Total Shareholders Equity Net Profit ($M) Societé Générale De Banque au Liban S.A.L Issues Preferred Shares 2015 Following Banque du Liban s approval on the 13th of May 2015, Societé Générale De Banque au Liban increased its capital by $100.0M through the issuance of 10,000 Perpetual, not Listed, non- Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares The fixed annual dividend will be equivalent to 7% per year of the Issue Price which is $10.000/share. In turn, annual distributions will be subject to withholding tax at the rate of 10% (unless shares are listed on the BSE, the withholding tax is 5%). However, the Bank will reimburse the holders of the mentioned shares for a portion not exceeding 5%. Source: BSE

13 The Lebanon Brief Page 13 of 19 FOCUS IN BRIEF Beirut Stock Exchange: H Performance Review While major financial markets today are considered to be free-floating, dictated almost unconditionally by demand and supply, there exists ample evidence of monetary authorities playing primary roles in swaying market activity. The stand-out economic factor influencing global markets this year has been the bearish trend in oil prices. On the other hand, central banks play their part in market manipulation via monetary policy decisions. Divergent central bank monetary policies yield varying results on their respective markets. Currently, the U.S. looks toward interest rate policy normalization, Europe and Japan advance their quantitative easing (QE) programs, and many emerging markets lower interest rates to stimulate growth. The U.S. stock market took a breather relative to most global peers while still posting positive returns. U.S. stocks displayed modest gains as investors struggled with uncertain global growth, oil price volatility and the timing of the Federal Reserve s impending interest rate hike. The Standard and Poor s 500 Index (S&P 500) ticked up marginally by 0.20% since year-start, to 2, points end of June 2015, compared to 2, points end of The dollar strength in the face of monetary easing elsewhere in the world helped keep a lid on U.S. share prices. S&P 500 Index 2,150 2,130 2,110 2,090 2,070 2,050 2,030 2,010 1,990 1,970 31/12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/2015 Source: Reuters European stocks powered ahead, boosted by improving economic data, falling oil prices and an aggressive new stimulus program launched by the European Central Bank. Signs of a brighter economic outlook emerged in the form of accelerating retail sales, rising export activity and improved credit availability for businesses and households. Much of the optimism was attributed to the start of the ECB s 60B/month bond-buying initiative, which is designed to encourage lending and stimulate economic growth. Despite renewed strains emanating from Greece that it might exit the Eurozone, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index enjoyed double-digit y-t-d gain, increasing 10.25% from 3, points end of 2014, to 3, points in June The drop in the euro over the past few months has helped fuel appetite for European stocks, as investors bet the lower currency will spark a corporate resistance after years of stagnating profits.

14 The Lebanon Brief Page 14 of 19 Euro Stoxx 50 Index 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 31/12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/2015 Source: Reuters Similarly, equities rallied in Japan, bolstered by Bank of Japan s unconventional monetary policy. Supported by the QEinduced fall of the Yen, the Nikkei 225 Index swelled 15.96% y-t-d to 20, points end of H1 2015, relative to 17, points end of Strong corporate earnings and optimism that companies would begin raising dividends also contributed to the improvement of stocks in Japan. Nikkei 225 Index 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 30/12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/2015 Source: Reuters Despite the shock that the Chinese stock market faced in mid-june 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index managed to post a 32.23% y-t-d growth to 4, points end of H Weak economic conditions did not deter investors from pumping their money in the bourse, until the index reached its 52-week high of 5, points on the 12 th of June, thereby causing China s asset bubble to burst. This resulted in the 29% decrease in the gauge from the peak on the 12 th of June to end July at 3, points. Shanghai Composite Index 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 31/12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/2015 Source: Reuters

15 The Lebanon Brief Page 15 of 19 In the Arab world, Tunisia s Stock Exchange was in the lead, with a 12.36% gain since year-start. Four years after Tunisia sparked off the Arab spring uprisings, the country s stock market is reaping the benefits of political stability, steps toward reform, and declining oil prices. In 2013, Tunisia signed a 2-year deal with the IMF, agreeing to follow certain economic policies such as keeping its deficit under control, making its foreign exchange market more flexible. On the other hand, the Egyptian Bourse recorded the biggest y-t-d decline. The decision of postponing the application of the 10% capital gains tax for 2 years and its positive vibes on the Egyptian stock market failed to boost the performance of the country s benchmark index. In fact, the security turbulences that the country encountered drove the EGX30 down by 6.22% y-t-d in the first six months of However, to improve the benchmark index, the Egyptian bourse stated a plan to reduce the required free float for new companies to be listed on EGX30, starting August 1. In details, the new equalweighted index will include the top 50 listed companies in terms of liquidity. As for Lebanon, the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) showed a mild recuperation, as the political and security situation acted as a headwind on investors sentiment. The BLOM Stock Index (BSI) gained 1.63% y-t-d to end H at 1, points, compared to 1, in December The volume of traded shares dropped from 28.10M shares worth $173.73M in H1 2014, to 25.72M shares, however at a higher value of $220.83M. BLOM Stock Index 1,250 1,230 1,210 1,190 1,170 1,150 30/12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/2015 Source: BLOMINVEST Research Department 30 stocks were listed on the BSE, end of H1, 2015 with the number of outstanding shares edging up 3.86% y-o-y to 1.56M shares. This was due to the listing of 50M Audi common shares in September 2014, 4,762,000 Bank of Beirut (BoB) Priority 2014 shares in October 2014, and 3M BoB Preferred shares class J, in February Of the total traded value, the banking sector grasped the lion s share of 79.29%, followed by the real estate sector and the industrial sector, with respective stakes of 20.59% and 0.12%. RYMCO, the only listed company belonging to the retail sector, witnessed no trades in The top performing shares in the banking sector were BLOM common shares, whose price surged 11.36% since the end of 2014, to $9.80. The common shares of BEMO and of Audi followed, recording rises of 8.57% and 3.83% y-t-d to $1.90 and $6.23, respectively. On the other hand Audi GDR shares and BLC preferred shares class A were the worst performers in the banking sector, shedding 8.50% and 2.91% to $6.03 and $25.5, respectively. In addition, Bank of Beirut Preferred shares classes E and H lost 2.86% each, to end H at the same price of $25.5. In the real-estate sector, Solidere shares classes A and B gained 1.41% and 0.53% to $11.48 and $11.40, respectively.

16 The Lebanon Brief Page 16 of 19 In the industrial sector, HOLCIM shares and Ciments Blancs bearer shares dropped 0.33% and 19.47% to $15.20 and $3.02, respectively. Ciments Blancs nominal shares were not traded in Regarding the preferred shares, the BLOM Preferred Shares Index (BPSI) lost 1.15% to end H at points. BEMO preferred shares 2013 were the only preferred shares to record a gain since the beginning of 2015, adding 1.20% to $ The preferred shares of Audi class E, of BLC classes B and C, and that of Bank of Beirut preferred J saw no change in their prices. Looking at the monthly performance, the BSE fared better in the first quarter of 2015 than in the second quarter. In details, the BSI saw monthly gains of 0.06%, 3.63%, and 1.04%, in January, February, and March, respectively. Optimistic expectations tend to prevail at the start of a calendar year, and can explain the slight upturn in market performance over the first month. Moreover, security stability and the positive earnings results of listed banks for 2014 allowed the BSI to stay on its bullish trend. In addition, the CMA announced during Q1, that it will authorize the launching of an electronic market for digital trading. This electronic exchange will be run by the BSE if the government privatizes the bourse. If not, the online bourse will be independent and owned by the private sector. Market conditions soured in April due to significant political and security turbulences. As a result of more increased focus on developments in Qalamoun (region on the border between Lebanon and Syria) between Syrian government forces and rebel factions, the BSI witnessed a 2.61% decrease in April. The downward trend continued in May and June, though at a slower pace, declining by 0.03% and 0.36%, respectively. BLOM Stock Index Monthly Performance 3.63% 1.04% 0.06% Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun % -0.36% -2.61% Source: BLOMINVEST Research Department Looking forward, the BSI is expected to improve slightly at the end of July, if listed banks released positive financial results for H However, this progress would not last, unless solutions emerge on the political front. Another way to predict the trend of the BSI for the rest of the year is examining the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI, a momentum indicator measuring the speed and change of price movements, shows when the index is overvalued (when it hits the 70-mark) or undervalued (when it hits the 30-mark). In Q1 2015, the RSI surpassed the 70-mark, after banks recorded positive financial performance for fiscal year In April, the RSI hit the 30-mark, however without crossing it, due to security uprisings. In the coming months, the BSI is expected to continue its sideways movement, unless developments concerning the presidential vacuum emerge, boosting investors sentiment.

17 The Lebanon Brief Page 17 of 19 RSI for the BSI Source: BLOMINVEST Research Department Looking at the market capitalization of the BSE compared to the MENA region, it is the smallest after Tunis, at $9.82B. Market Capitalization ($B, as of end July 2015) Source: Zawya, BLOMINVEST Research Department Many steps can be taken to improve the Liquidity of the BSE. For instance, privatizing the Beirut Stock Exchange would provide incentive for the shareholders to increase activity because it would be run as a for-profit business. Turning the BSE into a privately held company would make it more efficient in attracting local and regional companies to list on the BSE. Other options to increase supply on the stock exchange include listing government-owned companies, as well as creating incentives for family-owned companies to list. This could be done through tax incentives, such as providing a tax waiver. Moreover, there is a need to change an entrenched culture which is focused on short-term financing secured by banks. This would in no way adversely affect the work of commercial banks. In fact, well-developed capital markets would complement and support the activities of banks and vice versa.

18 The Lebanon Brief Page 18 of 19 Laws and regulations should change to encourage the creation of pension funds, which are the major investors in most stock exchanges. Separating the stock exchange management and the regulating authority on one hand, and privatizing the stock exchange on the other, would have a great importance on Lebanon s Bourse. Splitting regulation from management reinforces market transparency and widely opens the market to institutional investors especially when the control is performed by an independent administrative authority with undisputed credibility. As for handing the market management to the private sector, it certainly develops the market activity by increasing the number of issuers and diversifying the financial instruments. Moreover, corporatization brings in new technologies such as stock trading on electronic communication networks, provides a level playing field, thereby encouraging competition and facilitates mergers with other exchanges reinforcing the market capitalization. In this context, the creation of the CMA was an important step towards developing and regulating the stock exchange. The CMA has started to issue regulations aimed at increasing transparency and protecting investors. But more is awaited regarding the issuance of circulars aimed at developing the stock markets in capitalization and depth.

19 The Lebanon Brief Page 19 of 19 Research Department: Wael Khoury Lana Saadeh Riwa Daou Mirna Chami Marwan Mikhael Your Investment Reference