CREDIT LIBANAIS S.A.L.

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1 CREDIT LIBANAIS S.A.L. Issue No. 482 December 21 st December 30 th 2015 Economic Research Unit Credit Libanais Headquarters Adlieh Beirut, Lebanon Tel Fax Ext

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS LEBANON NEWS ECONOMIC INSIGHTS > Real Estate Sale Transactions Drop by 10.92% Y-O-Y up to November > Occupancy Rate in Lebanon s Hospitality Sector at 56% in November > Banks Share of LBP-Denominated Debt at 47.1% in October > Construction Permits at 9.40 million sqm up to November > Cleared Checks Volume at Million YTD November > The CAS Conveys an Annual Deflation of 3.90% in November > Number of Tourists Increases by 14.13% Y-O-Y up to November > Lebanon s Coincident Indicator up by 3.23% Y-O-Y in October > Tripoli Port Activity Improves by 54.11% Y-O-Y up to October MONETARY PERFORMANCE > Monetary Aggregates 9 > Money Markets 9 LEBANESE EQUITIES > Lebanese Equities & Credit Libanais Indices 10 Lebanon's Economic & Financial Sector Indicators 12 Lebanon's Ratings 13 REAL ESTATE SALE TRANSACTIONS DROP BY 10.92% Y-O-Y UP TO NOVEMBER 2015 The number of real estate transactions shed 10.92% y-o-y to 56,637 during the first eleven months of 2015, down from 63,580 transactions over that same period in OCCUPANCY RATE IN LEBANON S HOSPITALITY SECTOR AT 56% IN NOVEMBER 2015 According to Ernst & Young, Beirut recorded the 4 th highest (56%) occupancy rate among covered Middle Eastern (MEA) capitals during the first eleven months of the year 2015, along with Amman-Jordan. BANKS SHARE OF LBP-DENOMINATED DEBT AT 47.1% IN OCTOBER 2015 The share of Lebanese banks of LBPdenominated debt fell to 47.1% in October 2015, while the stake of the nonbanking sector remained constant at 16.8% and that of Banque Du Liban increased to 36.1%. CONSTRUCTION PERMITS AT 9.40 MILLION SQM UP TO NOVEMBER 2015 Construction permits shed 10.29% y-o-y to 9,397,892 sqm during the first eleven months of 2015, down from 10,475,634 sqm during that same period last year. THE CAS CONVEYS AN ANNUAL DEFLATION OF 3.90% IN NOVEMBER 2015 Lebanon s CPI shed 3.90% on an annual basis to in the eleventh month of the current year, down from in November of last year. ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX: EXT. 1285

3 SYNOPSIS OF TERMS "BDL" "ABL" "MOF" "BOP" "IMF" "Moody's" "BSE" "GDRs" "M1" "M2" "M3" "M4" "CPI" "PPI" "CLASI" "CLFI" "CLCI" EIU EOY "P/E" "P/BV" "YTD" "YTD Price Performance" "Forex" "LBP" "USD" "Yen" "GBP" "CHF" "Y-O-Y" "GDP" "MENA" LE SAR AED BD Banque Du Liban Association of Banks in Lebanon The Lebanese Ministry of Finance Balance of Payment The International Monetary Fund Moody's Investors Service Beirut Stock Exchange Global Depositary Receipts Currency in Circulation + Demand Deposits in LBP M1 + Other Deposits in LBP M2 + Deposits in Foreign Currencies M3+ Treasury Bills Held By Non Banking System, Including Accrued Interests Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index Economist Intelligence Unit End of Year Price to Earnings Multiple Price to Book Multiple Year To Date Yield to Date Price Appreciation Foreign Exchange The Lebanese Pound The United States Dollar The Japanese Yen The British Pound/ Sterling Pound The Swiss Franc Year-On-Year Gross Domestic Product Middle East and North Africa Livre Egyptienne Egyptian Pound Saudi Arabian Riyal United Arab Emirates Dirham Bahraini Dinar ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX: EXT. 1285

4 LEBANON NEWS REAL ESTATE SALE TRANSACTIONS DROP BY 10.92% Y-O-Y UP TO NOVEMBER 2015 Real estate activity in Lebanon was rather sluggish during the month of November 2015, with the number of transactions dropping to 5,541, down from 5,803 transactions in October. On a cumulative basis, the number of real estate transactions shed 10.92% y-o-y to 56,637 during the first eleven months of 2015, down from 63,580 transactions over that same period in From another angle, the value of real estate transactions contracted to $ million in November, from $ million in October. The cumulative value of real estate transactions concurrently fell by 11.69% y-o-y to $7.11 billion YTD November 2015, down from $8.05 billion a year before. Consequently, the average value per transaction eased to $125,490 as at end of November of this year, from $126,587 at end November of last year, with the share of foreigners firming at 2.22% of total real estate sales transactions at end of November, up from 1.69% as at end of year Real Estate Transactions For the Eleven-Month Period Ending Y-O-Y November 2014 November 2015 % Change Number of Sale Transactions 63,580 56, % Value of Transactions (USD Billion) % Average Value per Transaction (USD) 126, , % Source: General Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,665 83, Evolution of Value & Volume of Real Estate Transactions , ,984 74,569 69,198 70, , YTD Nov $ Billion % 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2.38% Sales to Foreigners as a Percentage of Total Sales 2.53% 2.22% 2.04% 1.84% 1.86% 1.85% 1.69% Value of Transactions ($ Billion) Number of Transactions Source: General Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Source:GDLRC, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The average value per real estate transaction in Beirut dwindled to $528,646 over the first eleven months of 2015, down from $567,233 at end of 2014, with the average value per transaction in the Metn region slipping to $204,409, from $210,955 at year-end On the other hand, the average value per transaction in Kesserwan rose to $141,466 as at end of November of this year, from $139,612 in December Historical Evolution of Average Value per Transaction Accross Different Lebanese Regions YTD Nov $132,733 $141,466 $204,409 $138,644 $139,612 $210,955 $120,983 $124,664 $213,584 $108,028 $117,596 $182,797 $100,712 $97,487 $170,953 $103,397 $94,325 $153,064 $369,696 $78,245 $84,290 $118,546 $314,941 $71,345 $78,536 $103,037 $295,033 $52,746 $52,172 $70,031 $262,181 $528,646 $567,233 $499,948 $524,277 $456,136 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 Baabda Kesserwan Metn Beirut Source: General Directorate of Land Registry and Cadastre, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: GDLRC, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 1

5 LEBANON NEWS OCCUPANCY RATE IN LEBANON S HOSPITALITY SECTOR AT 56% IN NOVEMBER 2015 Ernst & Young (EY) published its Middle East Hotel Benchmark Survey report on the performance of 4 & 5 star hotels in the Middle East region, conveying a 3 percentage point annual increase in the average occupancy rate in Beirut s hospitality sector to 56.0% during the month of November On the other hand, the average room rate fell by 8.2% on an annual basis to $154, with the average rooms yield shedding 1.6% y-o-y to $88. Performance of Beirut's Hospitality Sector During the Month of Nov-2014 Nov-2015 Change Hotel Occupancy Rate (%) pctg points Average Room Rate (USD) % Rooms Yield (USD) % Source: Ernst & Young, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The following chart captures the monthly evolution in the occupancy rate in Beirut s 4 & 5 star hotels over the past twelve months: Monthly Evolution of Hotel Occupancy in Beirut 70% 60% 50% 53% 61% 50% 55% 54% 56% 61% 57% 56% 61% 53% 54% 56% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Ernst & Young, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit On a regional basis, Beirut recorded the 4 th highest (56%) occupancy rate among covered Middle Eastern (MEA) capitals during the first eleven months of the year 2015, along with Amman-Jordan. Abu Dhabi-UAE outperformed the region, recording an average occupancy rate of 77%, followed by Doha-Qatar (70%) and Riyadh-Saudi Arabia (64%). In a related note, Doha charged the highest average room rate of $240 in the region s 4 & 5 star hotels, right ahead of Riyadh-Saudi Arabia ($212), Manama ($198), Beirut ($175), and Abu Dhabi ($173). Middle East Hotel Benchmark Survey During the Period Ended Hotel Occupancy Rates (%) Average Room Rates (USD) Room Yields (USD) Country - Capital Nov-2014 Nov-2015 Change in % Pts Nov-2014 Nov-2015 % Change Nov-2014 Nov-2015 % Change Bahrain - Manama % % Egypt - Cairo City % % Jordan - Amman % % Lebanon - Beirut % % Qatar - Doha % % Saudi Arabia - Riyadh % % United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi % % Source: Ernst & Young - Middle East Hotel Benchmark Survey, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Hotel Occupancy Rate in the Middle East Region up to November 2015 Average Room Rate in the Middle East Region up to November 2015 (USD) Manama 49.0% Cairo 112 Cairo 48.0% Amman 155 Amman 56.0% Abu Dhabi 173 Beirut 56.0% Riyadh 64.0% Doha 70.0% Abu Dhabi 77.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Source: Ernst & Young, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Beirut 175 Manama 198 Riyadh 212 Doha Source: Ernst & Young, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: ERNST & YOUNG, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 2

6 LEBANON NEWS BANKS SHARE OF LBP-DENOMINATED DEBT AT 47.1% IN OCTOBER 2015 According to statistics published by the Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL), gross public debt rose by 0.46% ($ million) during the month of October 2015 to LBP 104,081 billion ($69.04 billion), up from LBP 103,606 billion ($68.73 billion) in September. The share of Lebanese banks of LBP-denominated debt fell to 47.1% in October (down from 47.5% in September), while the stake of the non-banking sector remained constant at 16.8% and that of Banque Du Liban increased to 36.1% (up from 35.7% in September). As far as foreign currency-denominated debt is concerned, sovereign debt in the form of Republic of Lebanon Eurobonds constituted 91.6% of total foreign currency debt, followed by lines of credit obtained through bilateral agreements (4.2%), multilateral facilities (3.7%), and funds secured in the aftermath of the Paris II summit (0.2%). Oct-2014 Sep-2015 Oct-2015 Monthly % Y-O-Y % (Billion USD) Change Change Debt in LBP by Holder % 6.62% - Banks % -1.53% - Banque Du Liban % 21.42% - Non-Banking Sector % 3.54% Average Maturity (in years) % 6.01% Weighted Average Interest Rate 6.88% 6.93% 6.94% Debt in FC by Type % 0.54% - Eurobonds % 1.99% - Multilateral % % - Bilateral % % - Paris II Loans % % - Others % % Average Maturity (in years) % 1.64% Weighted Average Interest Rate 6.38% 6.44% 6.44% Gross Public Debt % 4.24% Source: The Association of Banks in Lebanon, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Breakdown of Debt in LBP by Holder - as at End of October 2015 Non-Banking Sector 16.8% Banks 47.1% Breakdown of Debt in FC by Type - as at End of October 2015 Bilateral, 4.2% Multilateral, 3.7% Paris II Loans, 0.2% Others, 0.3% BDL 36.1% Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Eurobonds, 91.6% The average maturity of debt denominated in domestic currency increased to 3.38 years as at end of October 2015, carrying a weighted annual interest rate of 6.94%. These figures compare to an average maturity of 3.36 years in September, at a time when the weighted annual interest rate stood at 6.93%. On the other hand, outstanding debt denominated in foreign currencies carried an average maturity of 5.58 years at end of October 2015, down from 5.67 years in September, while the weighted average annual interest rate remained constant at 6.44%. Evolution of Average Maturity and Weighted Interest Rate of Debt Denominated in LBP Years Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct % 6.94% 6.93% 6.92% 6.91% 6.90% 6.89% 6.88% 6.87% 6.86% 6.85% Years Evolution of Average Maturity and Weighted Interest Rate of Debt Denominated in Foreign Currency Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct % 6.48% 6.46% 6.44% 6.42% 6.40% 6.38% 6.36% 6.34% 6.32% Average Maturity Weighted Interest Rate Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Average Maturity Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Weighted Interest Rate SOURCE: ABL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 3

7 LEBANON NEWS CONSTRUCTION PERMITS AT 9.40 MILLION SQM UP TO NOVEMBER 2015 Lebanon s construction permits, which reflect the level of future supply in the real estate sector, rose to 811,261 sqm during the month of November 2015, up from 776,683 sqm in October. On a cumulative basis however, construction permits shed 10.29% y-o-y to 9,397,892 sqm during the first eleven months of 2015, down from 10,475,634 sqm during that same period last year. Evolution of Construction Permits (Sqm) Evolution of Cumulative Construction Permits (Sqm) During the Eleven-Month Period Ending Nov ,347,555 Nov ,507,564 Nov ,450,703 Nov ,925,916 Nov ,503,178 Nov ,475,634 Nov ,397,892 Source: Order of Engineers, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 As far as the geographical distribution of construction permits is concerned, the Mount Lebanon region continued to control the lion s share of total issued permits (5,397,333 sqm <57.43%>), followed by the South (1,382,472 sqm <14.71%>), the Bekaa (939,943 sqm <10.00%>), and Nabatieh (947,832 sqm <10.09%>) regions. It is worth noting that figures for the North governorate are underestimated, given the fact they exclude permits issued by the North Order of Engineers. Geographical Breakdown of Construction Permits up to November 2015 No. of Sqm Transactions Average Sqm/Trans. Beirut 610, Mount Lebanon 5,397,333 5, North* 119, Bekaa 939,943 1, South 1,382,472 2, Nabatieh 947,832 1, Total 9,397,892 12, * Figures for the North Governorate are underestimated since they exclude permits issued by the North Order of Engineers Source: Order of Engineers, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit 0 9,347,555 13,507,564 12,450,703 10,925,916 10,475,634 9,503,178 9,397,892 Nov-2009 Nov-2010 Nov-2011 Nov-2012 Nov-2013 Nov-2014 Nov-2015 South 14.71% Bekaa 10.00% North* 1.28% Geographical Breakdown of Construction Permits up to November 2015 Nabatieh 10.09% Beirut 6.49% Mount Lebanon 57.43% Source: Order of Engineers, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Average Sqm/Construction Permit Per Region up to November 2015 North* 764 Nabatieh 518 South 593 Mount Lebanon 941 Bekaa 664 Beirut ,000 Source: Order of Engineers, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The Mount Lebanon governorate enjoyed the highest exploitation coefficient, which stood at 941 sqm per construction permit as at end of November 2015, followed by Beirut (807 sqm/transaction), the North (764 sqm/transaction), and the Bekaa (664 sqm/transaction) governorates, only to name a few. SOURCE: ORDER OF ENGINEERS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 4

8 LEBANON NEWS CLEARED CHECKS VOLUME AT MILLION YTD NOVEMBER 2015 According to ABL statistics, the value of cleared checks fell on an annual basis to LBP 95,853 billion (distributed over 11,417,458 checks) up until the month of November 2015, down from LBP 102,813 billion (allocated over 11,833,396 checks) in the same period a year before. Of the total value of cleared checks, 73.26% was denominated in foreign currencies, versus 75.74% a year before. The value of returned checks, moreover, dropped by LBP 49 billion (2.26%) on a yearly basis to LBP 2,122 billion YTD November 2015, with the number of returned checks contracting by 7.94% y-o-y to 214,790. This is further illustrated in the section below: Check Clearing Activity Up to Nov-2014 Up to Nov-2015 Y-O-Y % Change Billion Number Billion Number Value Volume Cleared Checks-LBP Denominated LBP 24,939 3,655,816 LBP 25,634 3,750, % 2.58% Returned Checks-LBP Denominated LBP ,488 LBP , % 1.51% Cleared Checks-Foreign Currency Denominated $ ,177,580 $ ,667, % -6.24% Returned Checks-Foreign Currency Denominated $ ,833 $ , % % Total Cleared Checks LBP 102,813 11,833,396 LBP 95,853 11,417, % -3.51% Total Returned Checks LBP 2, ,321 LBP 2, , % -7.94% Source: Association of Banks in Lebanon, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Foreign Currency- Denominated, 73.26% Breakdown of Clearing Activity By Value LBP- Denominated, 26.74% Foreign Currency- Denominated 67.15% Breakdown of Clearing Activity By Volume Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit LBP- Denominated 32.85% Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The number of returned checks expressed as a percentage of the total number of cleared checks edged lower to 1.88% YTD November 2015, from 1.97% a year earlier. On the other hand, the value of returned checks calculated as a percentage of the total cleared checks value widened to 2.21% as at end of November 2015, up from 2.11% in the same period last year. Returned Checks as a Percentage of Cleared Checks (Value) Returned Checks as a Percentage of Cleared Checks (Number) 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 2.21% 2.11% 1.46% 1.49% 2.48% 2.32% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.97% 1.88% 1.65% 1.64% 2.11% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.50% 0.50% 0.00% Total LBP FC November 2014 November 2015 Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit 0.00% Total LBP FC November 2014 November 2015 Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: ABL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 5

9 LEBANON NEWS THE CAS CONVEYS AN ANNUAL DEFLATION OF 3.90% IN NOVEMBER 2015 According to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS), Lebanon s monthly inflation, as captured by the change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at -0.25% during the month of November 2015, compared to 0.81% in October. On an annual basis, Lebanon s CPI shed 3.90% to in the eleventh month of the current year, down from in November of last year. Said drop can be mainly attributed to the 18.01% y- o-y contraction in the prices of water, electricity, gas and other fuels (11.90% weight in the index), coupled with some 10.70% decrease in transportation costs (13.10% weight in the index), a 6.82% decline in healthcare prices (7.80% weight), and a 2.12% drop in the prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (20.60% weight) only to name a few, which altogether outweighed the 1.52% rise in education costs (5.90% weight in the index), the 1.67% increase in housing prices (owner occupied) (13.20% weight), and the 3.48% appreciation in prices of clothing & footwear (5.40% weight), among others. The following section captures the fluctuation in Lebanon s consumer basket s key constituents: Monthly (October November 2015) % change On a geographical basis, all regions across Lebanon reported a monthly depreciation in CPI values in November at the exception of the North, which registered a 0.39% month-on-month appreciation in CPI. The Nabatieh region suffered the sharpest monthly contraction (-1.09%) in its CPI reading, followed by the Bekaa (-0.99%), South (-0.53%), Beirut (-0.17%) and Mount Lebanon (-0.15%) regions. November 2015 Inflation Across Regions Region Monthly Inflation Weight Beirut -0.17% 17.30% Mount Lebanon -0.15% 44.60% North 0.39% 13.80% Bekaa -0.99% 10.50% South -0.53% 7.80% Nabatieh -1.09% 5.80% Lebanon -0.25% % Source: Central Administration of Statistics, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Annual (November November 2015) % change Weight Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages -0.52% -2.12% 20.60% Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.02% 2.65% 1.60% Clothing & Footwear 0.56% 3.48% 5.40% Housing - Actual Rent 0.15% 1.55% 3.40% Housing - Owner Occupied 0.07% 1.67% 13.20% Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels -0.90% % 11.90% Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance 0.30% 0.50% 3.70% Health 0.00% -6.82% 7.80% Transportation -0.87% % 13.10% Communication -0.17% -0.31% 4.60% Recreation, Amusement, and Culture 0.02% -1.07% 2.30% Education 0.00% 1.52% 5.90% Restaurant & Hotels 0.00% 1.49% 2.60% Miscellaneous Goods & Services 0.05% 1.35% 3.90% Consumer Price Index -0.25% -3.90% % Source: Central Administration of Statistics, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Price Volatility SOURCE: CAS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 6

10 LEBANON NEWS NUMBER OF TOURISTS INCREASES BY 14.13% Y-O-Y UP TO NOVEMBER 2015 According to figures released by the Lebanese Ministry of Tourism, the number of tourists arriving to Lebanon shed 11.23% to 99,952 during the month of November 2015, down from 112,601 in October. November s reading came in 12.18% higher than the 89,098 figure reported in November of last year. On a cumulative basis, the number of tourists arriving to the country rallied by 14.13% y-o-y to 1,394,340 tourists in the first eleven months of 2015, up from 1,221,705 tourists during that same period in European visitors topped the list of tourists arriving to Lebanon, accounting alone for 33.50% (467,164 visitors) of total tourist arrivals up to November, followed by Arab (441,194 arrivals <31.64%>), American (242,634 arrivals <17.40%>) and Asian (110,712 arrivals <7.94%>) visitors. Tourist Arrivals to Lebanon by Nationality up to November 2015 European 467,164 Arab 441,194 American 242,634 Asian 110,712 Others 132,636 Total 1,394,340 Source: M inistry of Tourism, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit American 17.40% Asian 7.94% Others 9.51% Tourist Arrivals by Nationality up to November 2015 Arab 31.64% European 33.50% Source: Ministry of Tourism, Credit Libanais Economic Research LEBANON S COINCIDENT INDICATOR UP BY 3.23% Y-O-Y IN OCTOBER 2015 Banque Du Liban s coincident indicator, which is an indicative measure of the country s overall economic activity, and which comprises import of petroleum derivatives, electricity production, check clearing activity, cement deliveries, foreign passengers, foreign trade, and the M3 monetary aggregate, rose by 3.65% during the month of October 2015 to 281.4, up from in September. The coincident indicator gained some 3.23% on an annual basis from a reading of in October 2014, portraying a timid improvement in overall economic activity. Evolution of Lebanon's Coincident Indicator Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: MINISTRY OF TOURISM, BDL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 7

11 LEBANON NEWS TRIPOLI PORT ACTIVITY IMPROVES BY 54.11% Y-O-Y UP TO OCTOBER 2015 Freight activity via the port of Tripoli improved to 178,747 tons during the month of October 2015, up from 153,689 tons in September. On a cumulative basis, Tripoli Port freight activity soared by 54.11% y-o-y to 1,493 thousand tons during the first ten months of 2015, from 969 thousand tons during that same period last year. The cumulative number of vessels rallied by 55.79% on an annual basis to 726 as at end of October, up from 466 vessels in the same period last year. Concurrently, the number of imported cars via the Tripoli Port inched 2.35% higher y-o-y to 4,830, compared to 4,719 cars YTD October In this perspective, portrelated revenues (excluding VAT and customs) gained some 20.25% on a yearly basis to around $11.33 million in the first ten months of this year, from $9.43 million in the same period last year. Tripoli Port For the Ten-Month Period Ending Indicators Oct-2014 Oct-2015 Y-O-Y % Change Freight Activity (000 Tons) 969 1, % Number of Vessels % Number of Imported Cars 4,719 4, % Port-Related Revenues ($ Million) % Source: Port of Tripoli, Al Bayan Economic Magazine, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: PORT OF TRIPOLI, ALBAYAN ECONOMIC MAGAZINE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 8

12 MONETARY PERFORMANCE MONETARY AGGREGATES All monetary aggregates ended the week of December 17, 2015 on a negative note. More specifically, the overall money supply, M4 narrowed by nearly LBP 129 billion on a weekly basis to LBP 196,039 billion, despite the LBP 23 billion increase in the non-banking sector s treasury bills portfolio. In parallel, Lebanese-pound denominated deposits and currency in circulation, M1, shed LBP 70 billion weekon-week to LBP 8,275 billion, and this on the back of the LBP 159 billion contraction in money in circulation which outweighed the LBP 89 billion hike in demand deposits. Local currency term deposits, M2, lost some LBP 17 billion on a weekly basis, yet registered a 6.65% year-on-year increase to LBP 77,832 billion. Consequently, private sector term and saving deposits denominated in LBP ( M2- M1 ) edged slightly higher to LBP 69,557 billion during the concerned week, while deposits denominated in foreign currencies ( M3 M2 ) slipped to LBP 107,090 billion. Money Supply LBP billion December 10, 2015 December 17, 2015 % Change M1 8,345 8, % M2 77,849 77, % M3 185, , % M4 19 6, , % M2-M1 69,504 69, % M3-M2 107, , % Source: Banque Du Liban, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit 86,000 66,000 46,000 26,000 6,000 Money Supply - LBP Billion - 196, , , ,922 December 10, 2015 December 17, 2015 M4 M3 Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit MONEY MARKETS The December 24 h Treasury bill auction raised some LBP billion ($ million), compared to LBP billion ($95.43 million) in the auction of the previous week. Subscriptions were majority (68.21%) concentrated in the ten-year to maturity T-bonds, followed by the twoyear (25.03%) and six-month (6.76%) tenure bonds. Consequently, the weighted average yield on Lebanese Pound Treasury bills edged higher to 7.24% in the auction of December 24, compared to 7.19% in the latest auction of same maturities held on the 29 th of October. The yields on the six-month, two-year, and ten-year to maturity treasury securities remained flat at 4.99%, 5.84%, and 7.98% respectively. Lebanese Treasury Bills October 29, 2015 Yield (%) Face Value (in billions of LBP) % of Total Lebanese Face Value Treasury Bills Yield (%) Face Value (in billions of LBP) % of Total Face Value 6 Months 4.99% % 6 Months 4.99% % 24 Months 5.84% % 24 Months 5.84% % 120 Months 7.98% % 120 Months 7.98% % Total % Total % Source: Reuters, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit December 24, 2015 Lebanese Treasury Bills 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 60 Months 84 Months 96 Months 120 Months 144 Months Treasury Yield 4.44% 4.99% 5.35% 5.84% 6.50% 6.74% 7.50% 7.80% 7.98% 8.74% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% On The Run Yield Curve Months 96 Months Months 144 Months 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 24 Months 12 Months 6 Months 3 Months 36 Months 60 Months 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% SOURCE: BDL, REUTERS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 9

13 LEBANESE EQUITIES LEBANESE EQUITIES Activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange remained rather subdued for the second consecutive week, with only three trading days amid the end of year festive season. In fact, the number of shares changing hands slightly rose to 363,656 shares, up from 320,828 shares last week, while traded value fell to just below $1.47 million, from around $3.70 million a week before. The bulk of weekly trades (73.33%) revolved around Byblos Bank listed shares on a thin turnover ratio of 0.05%. Concurrently, the average daily trading value narrowed to about $0.49 million this week, from $1.23 million last week, whereas the average daily trading volume increased to 121,219 shares, from 106,943 shares a week earlier. Three gainers and three losers were spotted this week, lifting the BSE s market capitalization up by 0.80% week-on-week to nearly $11.22 billion and the Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index ( CLASI ) higher by 0.95% to 1, Credit Libanais Week of Week of Weekly Indices 24-Dec Dec-15 % Change Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index <.CLASI> Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index <.CLFI> Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index <.CLCI> Index Value 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, , , % 1, , % % Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Weekly Performance CLASI CLASI 0.95% In the real estate sector, the price of Solidere A shares soared by 7.90% on a weekly basis to $11.06, with that of Solidere B rallying by 8.96% to $ Consequently, the Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index ( CLCI ) ended its week 7.00% higher at In the banking sector, the Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index ( CLFI ) lost some 0.68% for the week to 1, More specifically, the price of Byblos Bank listed shares and that of BLOM Bank listed shares shed 1.23% and 1.98% to $1.61 and $9.40 on a respective basis, outweighing as such the 0.21% appreciation in the price of BLOM Bank GDRs to $ Dec Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Nov-15.CLASI Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Wednesday, December 30, 2015 Value Daily % Chng Daily Net Chng 1, % Yr.High Year Hi.Date Yr.Low Year.Lo.Date 1, Mar-15 1, Nov-15 Life High Life Hi.Date Life Low Life.Lo.Date 1, Jul Mar Dec-15 Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index Weekly Performance CLFI Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index Weekly Performance CLCI 1, , Index Value 1,300 1, CLFI 0.68% Index Value CLCI 7.00% 30-Dec Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Dec Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec-15 SOURCE: BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 10

14 LEBANESE EQUITIES BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE Closing Weekly %Change Solidere A $ % 50,764 $547, ,000,000 $1,106,000 n.a % Solidere B $ % 34,068 $358,666 65,000,000 $719,550 n.a % BLC Bank $ % ,033,333 $86, %- BLC Bank Preferred Class "A" $ % ,000 $40,000 n.a n.a -2.91% BLC Bank Preferred Class "B" $ % ,000 $56,375 n.a n.a 2.50% BLC Bank Preferred Class "C" $ % ,000 $35,350 n.a n.a 1.00% Bank Audi - Listed Shares $ % ,749,204 $2,418, %- Bank Audi GDR $ % ,238,117 $697, %- Bank Audi Preferred "F" $ % - - 1,500,000 $152,550 n.a n.a -0.49%- Bank Audi Preferred "G" $ % 100 $10,100 1,500,000 $151,500 n.a n.a -0.49% Bank Audi Preferred "H" $ % ,000 $76,125 n.a n.a -0.78% Bank Of Beirut - Listed Shares $ % ,822,467 $316, %- Bank Of Beirut Priority Shares 2014 $ % - - 4,762,000 $100, % Bank Of Beirut Preferred "E" $ % - - 2,400,000 $63,240 n.a n.a 0.38%- Bank Of Beirut Preferred "H" $ % - - 5,400,000 $143,100 n.a n.a 0.95%- Bank Of Beirut Preferred "I" $ % - - 5,000,000 $132,500 n.a n.a 2.32%- Bank Of Beirut Preferred "J" $ % - - 3,000,000 $77,250 n.a n.a 3.00%- Byblos Bank - Listed Shares $ % 266,666 $432, ,515,040 $910, % Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2008 $ % - - 2,000,000 $202,400 n.a n.a -0.78%- Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2009 $ % - - 2,000,000 $201,200 n.a n.a -1.47%- Byblos Bank GDR $ % - - 1,309,078 $104, %- BEMO Bank - Listed Shares $ % ,400,000 $97, % BEMO Bank Preferred Class 2013 $ % ,000 $35,000 n.a n.a 0.00% BLOM Bank GDR $ % 11,845 $115,489 73,896,010 $720, % BLOM Bank Listed Shares $ % 213 $2, ,000,000 $2,021, % BLOM Bank Preferred Class 2011 $ % ,000,000 $203,000 n.a n.a -0.49%- RYMCO Class "B" $ % ,920,000 $35, %- Holcim Liban $ % ,516,040 $283, %- Ciment Blancs Bearer $ % - - 6,000,000 $23, %- Ciment Blancs Nominal $ % - - 3,000,000 $9, %- Note: n.a stands for not applicable Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Lebanese Equities Weekly Weekly Value Volume Traded Traded Activity Analysis Previous Last % Change Value Traded ($) 3,698,573 1,466, % Volume Traded 320, , % Average Daily Trading Value ($) 1,232, , % Average Daily Trading Volume 106, , % Market Cap - BSE ($) 11,130,450,865 11,219,768, % Weighted Average P/E % Weighted Average P/BV % Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Total Listed Shares Market Capitalisation ($000) P/E P/BV Evolution of Beirut Bourse Comparable Benchmarks December 24, 2015 December 30, 2015 P/E P/BV YTD Price Perf. Source: BSE, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The weighted average price to earnings (P/E) multiple of stocks listed on the BSE ended the week lower at 6.844x, down from 6.877x last week, while the weighted average price to book (P/BV) metric firmed at 0.853x, from 0.844x a week before. SOURCE: BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 11

15 LEBANON S MAIN INDICATORS Recap of Lebanon's Major Indicators MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP ($ Billion) * 45.02* 47.50* 50.82* Real GDP Growth Rate 2.70% 1.60% 9.40% 9.10% 10.30% 8.00% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 1.75%* 2.50%* GDP Per Capita ($) 5,339 5,343 5,937 6,888 8,274 8,756 9,145 9,709* 10,077* 10,531* 11,159* Net Foreign Direct Investment ($ Billion) FDI/GDP Ratio 13.11% 12.30% 13.74% 15.02% 13.77% 13.05% 11.79% 7.86% 12.71% INDUSTRY Industrial Exports ($ Million) 1,667 1,737 2,353 2,978 2,595 3,291 3,530 2,952 3,076 3,150 1,540 (2) Import of Industrial Machinery ($ Million) (2) TOURISM Total Number of Tourists 1,139,524 1,062,635 1,017,072 1,332,551 1,851,081 2,167,989 1,655,051 1,365,845 1,274,362 1,354,647 1,394,340 (7) Growth in Tax-Free Spending 2% - 15% 17% 56% 13% 21% 10% -6% 4% 8% 5% (5) REAL ESTATE Value of Real Estate Transactions ($ Million) 3, , , , , , , ,175 8,708 8,952 7,107 (7) Number of Real Estate Sales Transactions 50,057 49,051 65,681 80,018 83,465 94,202 82,984 74,569 69,198 70,721 56,637 (7) Construction Permits (000 sqm) 7,928 7,532 7,919 14,281 11,509 15,187 13,980 12,362 10,527 11,164 9,398 (7) Cement Delivery (000 tons) 3,040 3,423 3,945 4,219 4,897 5,227 5,550 5,309 5,831 5,517 3,619 (5) TRANSPORTATION Beirut Port: Freight Activity (000 Tons) 4,476 4,226 5,318 5,746 5,769 6,469 6,677 7,225 8,268 8,281 7,472 (7) Beirut Airport: Number of Passengers (million) (5) FOREIGN TRADE Imports ($ Million) 9,340 9,398 11,815 16,137 16,242 17,964 20,158 21,280 21,228 20,494 14,689 (6) Exports ($ Million) 1,880 2,283 2,816 3,478 3,484 4,253 4,265 4,483 3,936 3,313 2,494 (6) Trade Balance ($ Million) (7,460) (7,115) (8,999) (12,658) (12,758) (13,711) (15,893) (16,797) (17,292) (17,181) (12,194) (6) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Net Foreign Assets at the Financial Sector ($ Million) 747 2,792 2,037 3,461 7,899 3,325 (1,996) (1,537) (1,127) (1,407) (2,166) (6) Foreign Assets ($ Billion) (8) PUBLIC FINANCE Government Expenditures ($ Million) 6,768 7,880 8,350 9,922 11,388 11,336 11,675 13,321 13,640 13,952 9,837 (5) Government Revenues ($ Million) 4,912 4,853 5,804 7,000 8,428 8,414 9,333 9,396 9,420 10,879 7,229 (5) Budget Primary Deficit / Surplus ($ Million) 1,802 1,335 1,787 2,730 3,380 1,203 1,662 (110) (240) 1, (5) Total Deficit ($ Million) (1,856) (3,027) (2,546) (2,921) (2,960) (2,894) (2,342) (3,925) (4,220) (3,073) (2,608) (5) Deficit / GDP Ratio 8.72% 13.89% 10.36% 10.13% 8.42% 7.61% 5.65% 9.23% 9.52% 6.47% Debt Service / GDP Ratio 10.88% 13.47% 13.08% 12.16% 11.49% 10.85% 9.99% 8.51% 8.55% 9.22% Net Public Debt ($ Billion) (6) Gross Public Debt/GDP Ratio % % % % % % % % % % MONETARY AGGREGATES & INFLATION M4 ($ Billion) (9) (M2- M1) ($ Billion) (9) Monetization Level (M2/GDP Ratio) 74.24% 69.39% 65.76% 85.55% 97.35% % 99.31% % % % Change in CPI (%) % 5.60% 9.30% 6.36% 4.20% 6.19% 4.27% 4.68% 2.05% -1.66% % (7) BANKING SYSTEM Number of Commercial Banks (1) Number of Branches ,020 1,022 (1) Total Assets ($ Million) 70,325 76,179 82,255 94, , , , , , , ,269 (6) Total Deposits ($ Million) 58,117 61,541 68,059 78,663 96, , , , , , ,690 (6) Loans to the Private Sector ($ Million) 16,230 17,201 20,425 25,039 28,374 34,929 39,375 43,452 47,381 50,899 52,992 (6) Customer Loans/ Deposits 27.93% 27.95% 30.01% 31.83% 29.31% 32.16% 33.45% 34.04% 34.05% 34.48% 34.71% (6) Dollarization Rate 71.71% 75.16% 77.34% 69.57% 64.46% 63.24% 65.92% 64.82% 66.10% 65.71% 64.57% (6) Net Profit - After Tax ($ Million) ,215 1,429 1,838 1,743 1,620 Exchange Rate (LBP to USD) 1, , , , , , , , , , , * Figures Reflect IMF Estimates (1) A s at End o f M arch, 2015, (2) As at End of June, 2015, (3) As at End of July, 2015, (4) As at End of August, 2015, (5) As at End of September, 2015, (6) As at End of October, 2015, (7) As at End of November, 2015, (8) As at M id-december, 2015 (9) A s at December 17, 2015 SOURCE: BDL, ABL, MOF, IMF, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 12

16 LEBANON S RATINGS Republic Of Lebanon Sovereign Ratings Rating Agency Tenor Rating Standard & Poor's Long- Term B- Short- Term B Moody's Investors Service Ltd. Long- Term B2 Fitch IBCA Ltd. Long- Term B Short- Term B Source: M oody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's, Fitch Ratings Outlook Negative Negative Negative Lebanese Banks' Latest Ratings Rated Banks Moody's Investors Service Capital Intelligence Fitch Ratings S&P Ratings Long Term Foreign Currency Financial Strength Outlook Long Term Foreign Currency Outlook Long Term IDR Outlook Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating Bank Audi B2 E+ Negative B Stable B Stable B- C Negative BLOM Bank B2 E+ Negative B Stable - - B- - Negative Credit Libanais B Stable Byblos Bank B2 E+ Negative B Stable B Stable BBAC B Stable Fransabank B Stable BankMed B- C Negative Sources: M oody's Investors Service, Capital Intelligence, Fitch Ratings, S&P Ratings Outlook SOURCE: S&P, MOODY S, FITCH, CAPITAL INTELLIGENCE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 13

17 CONTACTS RESEARCH Fadlo I. Choueiri, CFA EXT: 1280 Jad Abi Haidar EXT Joelle Samaha EXT Joanna Gergi EXT MONEY MARKETS DESK Robert Araman EXT This document is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe to or purchase any security, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated herein are accurate and the estimates, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reliable. ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX: EXT