CREDIT LIBANAIS S.A.L.

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1 CREDIT LIBANAIS S.A.L. Issue No. 598 May 5 th May 11 th 2018 Economic Research Unit Credit Libanais Headquarters Adlieh Beirut, Lebanon Tel Fax research@cl.com.lb

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS LEBANON NEWS ECONOMIC INSIGHTS > LEBANON RANKS 69 TH IN THE WORLD IN THE KOF INDEX OF GLOBALIZATION > LEBANON HUMANITARIAN FUND RECEIVES $12.6 MILLION IN DONOR FUNDING IN > LEBANON RANKS 2 ND IN THE MENA REGION IN EXTERNAL DEBT RETURNS YTD APRIL > OCCUPANCY RATE IN LEBANON S HOSPITALITY SECTOR AT 63.5% IN MARCH > BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS TO $4.0 BILLION BY MARCH > NEW CAR SALES SETTLE 4.40% LOWER YTD APRIL > CLEARED CHECKS VOLUME AT AROUND 3.93 MILLION BY APRIL > BDL ANNOUNCES NEW DEBT SWAP 7 CORPORATE NEWS > VALUE OF KAFALAT LOANS ATTAINS $18.19 MILLION BY APRIL > ODEABANK A.Ş. POSTS NET PROFITS OF TRY MILLION IN Q > BANK OF BEIRUT S GENERAL ASSEMBLY APPROVES THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIVIDENDS 10 MONETARY PERFORMANCE > MONETARY AGGREGATES 11 > MONEY MARKETS 11 LEBANESE EQUITIES > LEBANESE EQUITIES & CREDIT LIBANAIS INDICES 12 LEBANON RANKS 69 TH IN THE WORLD IN THE KOF INDEX OF GLOBALIZATION 2018 Lebanon ranked 69 th in the world and 7 th among the Middle East and North African countries in the 2018 KOF Index of Globalization with a score of LEBANON HUMANITARIAN FUND RECEIVES $12.6 MILLION IN DONOR FUNDING IN 2017 The Lebanon Humanitarian Fund raised about $12.6 million in donations from seven European countries in the year 2017, allocated over 26 projects in cooperation with 23 implementing partners. LEBANON RANKS 2 ND IN THE MENA REGION IN EXTERNAL DEBT RETURNS YTD APRIL 2018 According to Merrill Lynch, the return on Lebanon s external debt stood at a negative 2.89% during the month of April 2018, down from 2.20% in March, with the cumulative return on the external sovereign debt reaching -0.69% as at the end of the fourth month of LEBANON'S ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS 14 LEBANON'S RATINGS 15 OCCUPANCY RATE IN LEBANON S HOSPITALITY SECTOR AT 63.5% IN MARCH 2018 Ernst & Young published its Middle East Hotel Benchmark Survey Report, conveying a 0.4 percentage-point annual improvement in the average occupancy rate in Beirut s hospitality sector to 63.5% during the month of March BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS TO $4.0 BILLION BY MARCH 2018 Lebanon s balance of trade deficit inched $8.08 million higher on an annual basis to just below $4.00 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2018, up from around $3.99 billion a year before. ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX:

3 SYNOPSIS OF TERMS "BDL" "ABL" "MOF" "BOP" "IMF" "Moody's" "BSE" "GDRs" "M1" "M2" "M3" "M4" "CPI" "PPI" "CLASI" "CLFI" "CLCI" EIU EOY "P/E" "P/BV" "YTD" "YTD Price Performance" "LBP" "USD" "Y-O-Y" "GDP" "MENA" Banque Du Liban Association of Banks in Lebanon The Lebanese Ministry of Finance Balance of Payment The International Monetary Fund Moody's Investors Service Beirut Stock Exchange Global Depositary Receipts Currency in Circulation + Demand Deposits in LBP M1 + Other Deposits in LBP M2 + Deposits in Foreign Currencies M3+ Treasury Bills Held by Non-Banking System Including Accrued Interests Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index Economist Intelligence Unit End of Year Price to Earnings Multiple Price to Book Multiple Year to Date Yield to Date Price Appreciation The Lebanese Pound The United States Dollar Year-on-Year Gross Domestic Product Middle East and North Africa ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX:

4 LEBANON NEWS LEBANON RANKS 69 TH IN THE WORLD IN THE KOF INDEX OF GLOBALIZATION 2018 KOF Swiss Economic Institute, an organization that provides insights into the field of economic research, released its 2018 KOF Index of Globalization in which it ranks 209 nations based on three main dimensions of globalization, namely economic, social, and political for the period spanning from 1970 until In details, economic globalization covers both trade flows as well as financial flows, whereas social globalization comprises interpersonal contact, flows of information, and cultural proximity. The dimension of political globalization takes into consideration the number of embassies and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), along with participation in UN peacekeeping missions and memberships in international organizations and international treaties. The report commented that the degree of globalization dropped slightly for the first time in 2015 since the year In details, said fall is mainly owed to the decrease in economic globalization, coupled with the stagnation of social globalization, in spite of the small rise in political globalization. Nevertheless, KOF Director expected the level of globalization to remain flat in 2016 and 2017, partly due to the protectionist policy of the United States of America and the United Kingdom, hindering as such the advancement of globalization. Belgium appears to be the most globalized country in the world, enjoying the highest KOF Index of Globalization score of in 2018, closely followed by the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and Austria with respective index scores of 90.24, 89.70, 88.05, and Regionally, by the United Arab Emirates topped the list (global rank 41) with a Globalization Index score of 74.40, followed by Jordan (score: 74.31; global rank: 42) and Qatar (score: 73.21; global rank: 44). On the local front, Lebanon ranked 69 th in the world in the 2018 KOF Index of Globalization with a score of 65.11, compared to a rank of 58 (score: 66.52) in the previous year. Lebanon came in 7 th among the Middle East and North African countries, followed by Tunisia (score: 64.86; global rank: 71) and Oman (score: 63.12; global rank: 79), only to name a few. More specifically, Lebanon scored (global rank: 59) in economic globalization, (global rank: 106) in social globalization, and (global rank: 100) in political globalization. KOF Index of Globalization 2018 Country Globalization Index Rank Economic Globalization Rank Social Globalization Rank Political Globalization Rank Belgium Netherlands Switzerland Sweden Austria United Arab Emirates Jordan Qatar Kuwait Morocco Bahrain Lebanon Tunisia Oman Saudi Arabia Egypt Libya Djibouti Algeria Yemen Mauritania Iran Syria Iraq Sudan Somalia West Bank & Gaza Source: Swiss Economic Institute, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: SWISS ECONOMIC INSTITUTE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 1

5 LEBANON NEWS LEBANON HUMANITARIAN FUND RECEIVES $12.6 MILLION IN DONOR FUNDING IN 2017 The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) released its Lebanon Humanitarian Fund Annual Report 2017 in which it provided a glimpse on the Fund s achievements and donor contributions in the year The report mentioned that the number of Syrian refugees on the Lebanese territories reached 1.5 million by end of January 2018, over 76% of whom were living under the poverty line. Similarly, the report stated that 89% of the 34 thousand Palestinian Refugees from Syria (PRS) and 65% of the 277,985 Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon (PRL) lived under the poverty line as of early Estimates as at End of January 2018 Number of Syrian Refugees 1,500,000 Number of Registered Syrian 995,512 Refugees with the UNHCR Number of Lebanese Returnees 35,000 Number of Palestinian Refugees 34,000 from Syria Number of Palestinian Refugees 277,985 Number of Vulnerable Lebanese 1,500,000 Citizens Source: OCHA, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit From another standpoint, the Lebanon Humanitarian Fund (LHF) raised about $12.6 million in donations from seven European countries in the year 2017, allocated over 26 projects in cooperation with 23 implementing partners such as national and international NGOs, the Red Cross/Red Crescent, and the United Nations. These funds were mainly geared towards providing vulnerable populations in Lebanon with basic assistance, protection, shelter, healthcare, education, social stability, and access to safe water for drinking and domestic use, only to name a few, with beneficiaries nearing the 19 thousand mark including men, women, and children. This is further illustrated below: Evolution of Donor Contributions to the LHF Breakdown of Donated Funds to the LHF by Donor in 2017 USD MILLION Sweden 14% Ireland 13% France Iceland 5% 1% Germany 28% Belgium 14% Denmark 25% Source: OCHA, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Source: OCHA, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Breakdown of Beneficiaries from the LHF in 2017 Boys 1,485 8% Girls 1,501 8% Men 6,886 36% Women 9,106 48% Source: OCHA, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: OCHA, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 2

6 LEBANON NEWS LEBANON RANKS 2 ND IN THE MENA REGION IN EXTERNAL DEBT RETURNS YTD APRIL 2018 According to the monthly High Yield & Emerging Market Profiles report published by Merrill Lynch, the return on Lebanon s external debt stood at a negative 2.89% during the month of April 2018, down from 2.20% in March, with the cumulative return on the external sovereign debt reaching -0.69% as at the end of the fourth month of This poises Lebanon to occupy the 2 nd position among 13 MENA countries included in the external debt EM sovereign bond index in terms of total return. Iraq topped the list with a total return of -0.24% by April, followed by Lebanon, Egypt (-1.79%), Morocco (-2.04%), and Tunisia (-2.42%), only to name a few. It is worth highlighting that these returns are not risk-adjusted, which explains the fact that countries offering high sovereign yields have high Option Adjusted Spreads (OAS) as sketched in the table below, lowering as such the risk adjusted returns. When factoring in all emerging economies in the Merrill Lynch index, however, Venezuela emerged as the best performer with a sovereign return of 33.38%, while Ecuador suffered the worst return performance (-9.27%). Lebanon s excess return reached 1.11% by April 2018, the second highest among surveyed MENA countries, noting that the country recorded the highest OAS of 491 basis points (bps). The OAS on Lebanon s External Sovereign Debt came higher than the 437 bps level reported in March Conversely, the weight assigned to Lebanon in Merrill Lynch s Emerging Markets external debt index dropped to 2.22% in April 2018, down from 2.37% in the previous month, as captured in the following analysis: Lebanon's Sovereign External Debt Month of March 2018 Month of April 2018 YTD Q YTD April 2018 Returns (%) Excess Return (%) Option Adjusted Spreads (bps) Lebanon's Weight in the Index (%) Source: M errill Lynch, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Total Return on Sovereign External Debt in MENA Countries YTD April 2018 Country Returns (%) MENA Rank OAS (bps) Excess Return (%) MENA Rank Iraq Lebanon Egypt Morocco Tunisia Bahrain Qatar U.A.E Kuwait Jordan Turkey Oman Saudi Arabia Source: M errill Lynch, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: MERRILL LYNCH, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 3

7 LEBANON NEWS OCCUPANCY RATE IN LEBANON S HOSPITALITY SECTOR AT 63.5% IN MARCH 2018 Ernst & Young (EY) published its Middle East Hotel Benchmark Survey Report on the performance of 4 and 5 star hotels in the Middle East region, conveying a 0.4 percentage-point annual improvement in the average occupancy rate in Beirut s hospitality sector to 63.5% during the month of March Concurrently, the average room rate rose by 2.5% y-o-y to $173, with the average room yield increasing by 3.1% to $110. Performance of Beirut's Hospitality Sector During the Month of March-2017 March-2018 Change Hotel Occupancy Rate (%) pctg points Average Room Rate (USD) % Rooms Yield (USD) % Source: Ernst & Young, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The following chart captures the monthly evolution in the occupancy rate in Beirut s 4 & 5 star hotels over the March March 2018 period: 80% Monthly Evolution of Hotel Occupancy in Beirut 70% 63% 69% 70% 75% 69% 68% 74% 63.50% 60% 50% 45% 54% 54% 49% 61% 40% 30% Source: Ernst & Young, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit On a regional basis, Beirut recorded the 2 nd lowest (57.9%) average occupancy rate among covered Middle Eastern capitals during the first quarter of the current year, registering as well the 2 nd largest annual drop (-4.5 p.p.) in the average hotel occupancy rate. Abu Dhabi outperformed its regional peers, recording an average occupancy rate of 86.6%, followed by Muscat (84.4%) and Cairo (73.6%), only to name a few. In a related note, Kuwait City s 4 and 5 star hotels charged the highest average room rate ($200), right ahead of their likes in Riyadh ($190), Manama ($176), Muscat ($175), Beirut ($173), Doha ($150), Amman ($135), Abu Dhabi ($104), and Cairo ($99). Middle East Hotel Benchmark Survey During the Period Ended Hotel Occupancy Rates (%) Average Room Rates (USD) Room Yields (USD) Country - Capital March March Change in % Pts March March % Change March March % Change Bahrain - Manama % % Egypt - Cairo C ity % % Jordan - Amman % % Kuwait - Kuwait City % % Lebanon - Beirut % % Oman - Muscat % % Qatar - Doha % % Saudi Arabia - Riyadh % % United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi % % Source: Ernst & Young - Middle East Hotel Benchmark Survey, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Hotel Occupancy Rate in the Middle East Region up to March 2018 Average Room Rate in the Middle East up to March 2018 (USD) Amman Beirut Manama 56.5% 57.9% 59.7% Cairo Abu Dhabi Amman Riyadh 60.9% Doha 150 Doha 63.1% Beirut 173 Kuwait City 67.5% Muscat 175 Cairo 73.6% Manama 176 Muscat 84.4% Abu Dhabi 86.6% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Source: Ernst & Young, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Riyadh 190 Kuwait City Source: Ernst & Young, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: ERNST & YOUNG, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 4

8 LEBANON NEWS BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS TO $4.0 BILLION BY MARCH 2018 On the current account side of the balance of payments, Lebanon s balance of trade deficit inched $8.08 million higher on an annual basis to just below $4.00 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2018, up from around $3.99 billion a year before, according to statistics published by Lebanon s Higher Customs Council. Said increase in the deficit was triggered by a $188 million y-o-y expansion in imports to $4.81 billion, which outweighed the $180 million rise in exports to $814 million. Balance of Trade For the Three-Month Period Ending Y-O-Y (US$ Million) March 2017 March 2018 % Change Exports % Imports 4,622 4, % Trade Balance (3,988) (3,996) 0.20% Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit USD Million 3,500 2,500 1, ,500-2,500-3,500-4,500 Balance of Trade Deficit March 2017 March 2018 Exports Imports Deficit Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit China topped the list of countries exporting to Lebanon, with its exports bill reaching $553 million (11.49% of Lebanon s imports). South Africa, on the other hand, led the list of countries importing from Lebanon, with its imports invoice aggregating to $92 million (11.34% of Lebanon s exports). This is further elaborated in the tables below: Major Import Sources (in USD Million) China % Italy % Greece % Germany % USA % Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Major Export Destinations (in USD Million) South Africa % UAE % Switzerland % Saudi Arabia % Turkey % Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Exports of pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, and metals accounted alone for 29.16% ($237 million) of total Lebanese exports by March 2018, followed by base metals and articles of base metal ($117 million <14.42%>), prepared foodstuffs, beverages, and tobacco ($107 million <13.09%>), and chemical products ($86 million <10.58%>). On the other hand, mineral products constituted the lion s share of imported goods ($857 million <17.81%>), trailed by chemical products ($563 million <11.70%>), machinery & mechanical appliances and electrical equipment ($547 million <11.36%>), and vehicles, aircraft, vessels & associated transport ($375 million <7.80%>). Product Breakdown of Exports by Product by March 2018 Value ($ Million) % of Total Pearls, Precious or Semi-Precious Stones, and Metals % Base Metals & Articles of Base Metal % Prepared Foodstuffs, Beverages, and Tobacco % Chemical Products % Others % Total Exports % Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Product Breakdown of Imports by Product by March 2018 Value ($ Million) % of Total Mineral Products % Chemical Products % Machinery & Mechanical Appliances and Electrical Equipment % Vehicles, Aircraft, Vessels & Associated % Others 2, % Total Imports 4, % Source: Higher Customs Council, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: HIGHER CUSTOMS COUNCIL, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 5

9 LEBANON NEWS NEW CAR SALES SETTLE 4.40% LOWER YTD APRIL 2018 According to the monthly statistics published by the Automobile Importers Association (AIA), new car sales in Lebanon stood at 2,539 vehicles during the month of April 2018, compared to 2,901 vehicles in March and 2,536 vehicles in April On a cumulative basis, new car sales shed 4.40% y-o-y to 10,185 vehicles in the first four months of the current year, down from 10,654 vehicles during that same period last year. This comes as a result of the 12.11% annual contraction in the sales of Korean cars to 3,185, coupled with some 12.74% drop in the sales of European cars to 2,042 vehicles and a 15.07% slump in the sales of American cars to 738 vehicles, which altogether outweighed the 6.25% y-o-y increase in the sales of Japanese cars to 3,942 vehicles and the % hike in the sales of Chinese cars to 278 vehicles. It is worth noting that the number of imported cars via the Beirut Port had plunged by some 31.76% on an annual basis during the first quarter of Japanese cars controlled the lion s share of new car sales in Lebanon, amassing alone 38.70% of total volume sales by end of April 2018, followed by Korean (31.27%), European (20.05%), American (7.25%), and Chinese (2.73%) cars. New Car Sales During the Four-Month Period Ending Apr-2017 Apr-2018 % Change Japanese 3,710 3, % European 2,340 2, % Korean 3,624 3, % American % Chinese % Total 10,654 10, % Source: AIA, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Breakdown of New Car Sales YTD April 2018 Korean, 31.27% American, 7.25% Chinese, 2.73% Japanese, 38.70% European, 20.05% The Korean KIA brand recorded total unit sales of 1,745 cars by April of this year, enjoying the highest market share of 17.13%, followed by the Korean Hyundai (1,433 cars <14.07%>) and Japanese Toyota (1,274 cars <12.51%>) brands, only to name a few. Top 10 New Car Sales by Brand YTD April 2018 Mazda Mercedes Mitsubishi Renault Chevrolet Suzuki Nissan 1,032 Toyota 1,274 Hyundai 1,433 KIA 1, ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Source: AIA, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit SOURCE: AIA, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 6

10 LEBANON NEWS CLEARED CHECKS VOLUME AT AROUND 3.93 MILLION BY APRIL 2018 According to ABL statistics, the value of cleared checks contracted to LBP 33,364 billion (distributed over 3,931,665 checks) by April 2018, in comparison with LBP 33,834 billion (allocated over 3,963,299 checks) in the same period last year. Of the total value of cleared checks, 67.35% was denominated in foreign currency, versus 68.67% a year before. On the other hand, the value of returned checks widened by LBP 32 billion (4.51%) on an annual basis to LBP 741 billion during the first four months of the current year, with the number of returned checks rallying by 17.13% y-o-y to 85,759. This is further illustrated in the section below: Cumulative Check Clearing Activity April 2017 April 2018 Y-O-Y % Change Billion Number Billion Number Value Volume Cleared Checks-LBP Denominated LBP 10,599 1,436,499 LBP 10,894 1,511, % 5.21% Returned Checks-LBP Denominated LBP ,106 LBP , % 26.01% Cleared Checks-Foreign Currency Denominated $ ,526,800 $ ,420, % -4.22% Returned Checks-Foreign Currency Denominated $ ,111 $ , % 13.04% Total Cleared Checks LBP 33,834 3,963,299 LBP 33,364 3,931, % -0.80% Total Returned Checks LBP ,217 LBP , % 17.13% Source: Association of Banks in Lebanon, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Breakdown of Clearing Activity by Value Breakdown of Clearing Activity by Volume Foreign Currency- Denominated, 67.35% LBP- Denominated, 32.65% Foreign Currency- Denominated 61.56% LBP- Denominated 38.44% Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The number of returned checks expressed as a percentage of the total number of cleared checks rose to 2.18% by April 2018, up from 1.85% a year before. Concurrently, the value of returned checks calculated as a percentage of the total cleared checks value increased to 2.22%, up from 2.10% in the same period last year. Returned Checks as a Percentage of Cleared Checks (Value) Returned Checks as a Percentage of Cleared Checks (Number) 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 2.22% 2.10% 1.59% 1.59% 2.53% 2.32% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 2.18% 1.85% 1.93% 1.61% 1.98% 2.34% 0.50% 0.50% 0.00% Total LBP FC 0.00% Total LBP FC YTD April 2017 YTD April 2018 YTD April 2017 YTD April 2018 Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Source: ABL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit BDL ANNOUNCES NEW DEBT SWAP The Lebanese Central Bank Governor, Mr. Riad Salameh, announced earlier this week Banque Du Liban (BDL) s intention to sell Eurobonds for a maximum consideration of $2 billion during the year 2018 under the umbrella of a debt swap that primarily aims at shrinking the country s cumbersome debt service. In detail, and according to the governor, BDL is eyeing to exchange LBP-denominated Treasury bills at low interest rates with the Lebanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) against USD-denominated Eurobonds during the month of May in a deal worth between $5.5 billion and $6 billion. BDL intends to subsequently sell up to $2 billion worth of Eurobonds over different stages, with a maximum sale size of $500 million to $1 billion per stage. SOURCE: ABL, BLOOMBERG, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 7

11 CORPORATE NEWS VALUE OF KAFALAT LOANS ATTAINS $18.19 MILLION BY APRIL 2018 The number of guarantees issued by the government-subsidized program KAFALAT plunged by 28.50% on an annual basis to 138 in the first four months of the current year, down from 193 during that same period last year. The face value of guarantees also fell by 22.99% y-o-y to LBP billion ($18.19 million) by end of April 2018, from LBP billion ($23.62 million) a year before. Conversely, the average value per guarantee rose by 7.70% on a yearly basis to just over LBP million ($ thousand), compared to LBP million ($ thousand) YTD April The industrial sector amassed the bulk (39.13%) of issued Kafalat loans, followed by the agricultural (34.78%) and tourism (21.01%) sectors. Kafalat Loans by Sector During the Four-Month Period Ending Apr-2017 Apr-2018 Y-O-Y % Change Agriculture % Industry % Tourism % Others % Total % Value of Guarantees ($ million) % Average Value per Guarantee ($000) % Source: Kafalat, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Tourism 21.01% Breakdown of Kafalat Loans by Sector by End of April 2018 Industry 39.13% Others 5.07% Source: Kafalat, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit From a geographical standpoint, the Mount Lebanon region continued to outperform other regions in terms of number of issued Kafalat loans, detaining alone 44.93% of said loans, followed, and at quite a distance, by the Bekaa (15.94%), North (10.87%), Beirut (10.14%), South (9.42%), and Nabatieh (8.70%) regions. Agriculture 34.78% Kafalat Loans by Region During the Four-Month Period Ending Apr-2017 Apr-2018 Y-O-Y % Change Beirut % Mount Lebanon % South % Nabatieh % Bekaa % North % Total % Source: Kafalat, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Breakdown of Kafalat Loans by Region by End of April 2018 Bekaa 15.94% Nabatieh 8.70% South 9.42% North 10.87% Beirut 10.14% Source: Kafalat, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Mount Lebanon 44.93% SOURCE: KAFALAT, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 8

12 CORPORATE NEWS ODEABANK A.Ş. POSTS NET PROFITS OF TRY MILLION IN Q Bank Audi s fully-owned Turkish subsidiary Odeabank A.Ş. published its audited financial statements this week, conveying a 19.05% annual contraction in net after tax profits to TRY million (around $19.10 million) during the first quarter of 2018, down from TRY million (around $25.60 million) a year before. In details, net interest income plunged by 26.54% y-o-y to TRY million (around $72.85 million), with net commission & fee income sinking by 34.28% to TRY million (around $8.31 million). These drops were, however, partially offset by the bank s reduction of its net trading losses to TRY million ($4.83 million) by end of March 2018, compared to TRY million (around $20.64 million) a year earlier. In this context, total operating income came in 29.85% lower at TRY million ($66.47 million) in Q On the other hand, the bank lowered its provisions for loan losses by 11.01% y-o-y to TRY million ($17.33 million) as well as its other operating expenses by 45.98% to TRY million (around $24.54 million). On the balance sheet front, the consolidated assets of Odeabank A.Ş. narrowed by 3.27% during the first quarter of the current year to TRY billion (around $8.11 billion) on the back of some 3.76% drop in loans and receivables to TRY billion (around $5.52 billion). On the funding side, customer deposits fell by 6.59% on a quarterly basis to TRY billion (around $5.66 billion), with the ratio of net loans to customer deposits consequently firming at 97.52%. On the capitalization front, Odeabank s shareholders equity rose by 2.86% in Q to nearly TRY 3.87 billion (around $ million). Odeabank A.Ş. In Millions of TRY As at End of December 2017 As at End of March 2018 % Change Key Balance Sheet Figures Total Assets 33, , % Loans and Receivables 22, , % Customer Deposits 23, , % Shareholders' Equity 3, , % Liquidity Ratios (%) Net Loans to Customer Deposits 94.65% 97.52% In Millions of TRY Q Q Y-O-Y % Change Key P&L Figures Net Interest Income % Net Commission and Fee Income % Net Trading Profit/(Loss) (75.14) (19.09) % Other Operating Income % Total Operating Income % Provision for Loan Losses % Other Operating Expenses % Net Operating Profit/(Loss) % Net Profits/(Loss) % Source: BSE, Bank Audi, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Evolution of Odeabank's Profitability Millions of TRY Q Q SOURCE: BSE, BANK AUDI, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 9

13 CORPORATE NEWS BANK OF BEIRUT S GENERAL ASSEMBLY APPROVES THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIVIDENDS According to an announcement issued by Bank of Beirut S.A.L. and circulated by the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) on May 8, 2018, the bank s Ordinary General Assembly (OGA) approved during its meeting held on May 4, 2018 the Board of Directors proposition to distribute dividends to shareholders on the following basis: LBP 1,150 per common share and per priority share Series 2014 subject to a 10% withholding tax (i.e. an aggregate amount of LBP 66, million ($44.20 million)); $0.84 per priority share Series 2014 representing 4% of the issue price subject to a 10% withholding tax (i.e. an aggregate amount of $4.00 million); $ per preferred share Series G subject to a 10% withholding tax (i.e. an aggregate amount of $8.43 million); $1.75 per preferred share Series H subject to a 10% withholding tax (i.e. an aggregate amount of $9.45 million); $ per preferred share Series I subject to a 10% withholding tax (i.e. an aggregate amount of $8.44 million); $ per preferred share Series J subject to a 10% withholding tax (i.e. an aggregate amount of $4.88 million); $ per preferred share Series K subject to a 10% withholding tax (i.e. an aggregate amount of $6.50 million). The payment date for all holders of record as at May 11, 2018 is scheduled on or about May 17, The announcement further fixed the ex-dividend date on May 9, SOURCE: BSE, BANK OF BEIRUT, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 10

14 MONETARY PERFORMANCE MONETARY AGGREGATES The overall money supply, M4, widened by LBP billion during the week of April 19, 2018 and by 3.31% on an annual basis to LBP 221,264 billion, noting that the non-banking sector s Treasury bills portfolio rose by LBP 31 billion during the concerned week. On the other hand, Lebanese-Pound denominated deposits and currency in circulation, M1, plunged by LBP billion week-on-week to LBP 10,251 billion on the back of some LBP 286 billion contraction in demand deposits, coupled with a LBP 162 billion drop in money in circulation. On a yearly basis, however, M1 increased by 4.51%. Local currency term deposits, M2, receded by LBP billion on a weekly basis and by 3.26% year-on-year to settle at LBP 79,884 billion. Consequently, private sector term and saving deposits denominated LBP ( M2-M1 ) gained some LBP billion (0.14%) to LBP 69,633 billion during the week of April 19, with deposits denominated in foreign currencies ( M3-M2 ) soaring by LBP billion (0.28%) to LBP 130,314 billion. It is worth noting that Banque Du Liban has begun incorporating all depository corporations, including MLT banks, in their calculations of the monetary aggregates as of March 22. Money Supply LBP Billion April 12, 2018 April 19, 2018 % Change M1 10,700 10, % M2 80,236 79, % M3 210, , % M4 221, , % M2- M1 69,536 69, % M3-M2 129, , % Source: Banque Du Liban, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit 250, , ,000 Money Supply - LBP Billion - 221, , , ,199 April 12, 2018 April 19, 2018 M4 M3 Source: BDL, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit MONEY MARKETS The May 3 rd Treasury bill auction raised LBP billion ($ million), compared to LBP billion ($ million) in the auction of the previous week. The majority of subscriptions (42.55%) was concentrated in the one-year to maturity T-bills, followed, and at a short distance, by the five-year to maturity T-bonds (41.67%), and at quite a distance, by the three-month (15.78%) tenure Treasury securities. Consequently, the weighted average yield on Lebanese Pound Treasury bills stood at 5.79% in the auction of May 3. The yields on the three-month, one-year, and five-year to maturity Treasury securities remained flat at 4.44%, 5.35%, and 6.74% respectively. Lebanese Treasury Bills May 03, 2018 Yield (%) Face Value (in billions of LBP) % of Total Face Value 3 Months 4.44% % 12 Months 5.35% % 60 Months 6.74% % Total % Source: Reuters, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Lebanese Treasury Bills 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 60 Months 84 Months 120 Months Treasury Yield 4.44% 4.99% 5.35% 5.84% 6.50% 6.74% 7.08% 7.46% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% On The Run Yield Curve 24 Months 36 Months 84 Months 60 Months 120 Months 5.50% 5.00% 6 Months 12 Months 4.50% 3 Months 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% SOURCE: BDL, REUTERS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 11

15 LEBANESE EQUITIES LEBANESE EQUITIES Activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange was rather bullish this week amid large traded chunks on Audi Bank listed shares exceeding 1.13 million. In fact, the total number of shares changing hands rallied to 1,857,199 shares this week, compared to 399,588 shares last week, and traded value surged to $12.79 million, from nearly $3.06 million a week before. Trades were mainly concentrated in banking stocks, which accounted for 90.58% of weekly traded volume. The average daily trading volume rose to 464,300 shares this week, from 133,196 shares a week earlier. Similarly, the average daily trading value widened to just below $3.20 million, from around $1.02 million last week. Four gainers and three losers were screened this week, lifting the BSE s market capitalization up by 0.16% week-on-week to around $11.27 billion and the Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index ( CLASI ) higher by 0.23% to 1, In the real estate sector, trades mainly consisted of Solidere A and B shares (9.16% of total traded volume), with the price of Solidere A increasing by 2.61% on a weekly basis to $8.65 while that of Solidere B decreased by 0.12% to $8.43. In addition, the price of Holcim Liban shares rose by 3.16% to $ Consequently, the Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index ( CLCI ) closed the week 1.79 % higher at In the banking sector, Bank Audi listed shares amassed the highest concentration of trades (60.85% of total traded volume) on a thin turnover ratio of 0.28%. The Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index ( CLFI ) fell by 0.12% on a weekly basis to 1, This comes as a result of the 0.90% drop in the price of the BLOM Bank listed shares to $11.00 which outweighed the 0.78% increase in the price of the BLOM Bank GDR to $11.60 and the 0.66% appreciation in the price of Byblos Bank listed shares to $1.52 Credit Libanais Week of Week of Weekly YTD Indices 3-May May-18 % Change % Change Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index <.CLASI> 1, , % -1.19% Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index <.CLFI> 1, , % -3.14% Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index <.CLCI> % 8.31% Index Value.CLASI 1,160 1,140 1,120 1,100 1,080 1,060 1,040 1,020 1, May Jul-17 Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Weekly Performance CLASI CLASI 0.23% 23-Aug Oct-17 Credit Libanais Aggregate Stock Index Friday, May 11, 2018 Value Daily % Chng Daily Net Chng 1, % Yr.High Year Hi.Date Yr.Low Year.Lo.Date 1, Apr-18 1, May-18 Life High Life Hi.Date Life Low Life.Lo.Date 1, Jul Mar Dec Jan Mar May-18 Credit Libanais Financial Sector Stock Index Weekly Performance CLFI Credit Libanais Construction Sector Stock Index Weekly Performance CLCI 1, ,550 Index Value 1,500 1,450 1,400 Index Value ,350 CLFI 0.12% 400 CLCI 1.79% 1, May Jul Aug Oct Dec Jan Mar May May Jul Aug Oct Dec Jan Mar May-18 SOURCE: BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 12

16 LEBANESE EQUITIES BEIRUT STOCK EXCHANGE Closing Weekly %Change Weekly Volume Traded Lebanese Equities % of Weekly Weekly Volume Traded Value Traded Solidere A $ % 119, % $1,016, % 100,000, , % Solidere B $ % 50, % $425, % 65,000, , % BLC Bank $ % ,033,333 66, % BLC Bank Preferred Class "C" $ % ,000 35,000 n.a n.a 0.00% BLC Bank Preferred Class "D" $ % ,000 75,000 n.a n.a 0.00% Bank Audi - Listed Shares $ % 1,130, % $6,487, % 399,749,204 2,298, % Bank Audi GDR $ % 26, % $152, % 119,924, , % Bank Audi Preferred "G" $ % ,500, ,450 n.a n.a 0.00% Bank Audi Preferred "H" $ % ,000 75,000 n.a n.a -0.60% Bank Audi Preferred "I" $ % % $9, % 2,500, ,750 n.a n.a -0.45% Bank Audi Preferred "J" $ % ,750, ,000 n.a n.a 0.05% Bank Of Beirut - Listed Shares $ % ,746, , % Bank Of Beirut Priority Shares 2014 $ % ,762, , % Bank Of Beirut Preferred "H" $ % ,400, ,400 n.a n.a 0.39% Bank Of Beirut Preferred "I" $ % ,000, ,000 n.a n.a 1.96% Bank Of Beirut Preferred "J" $ % ,000,000 78,000 n.a n.a 1.36% Bank Of Beirut Preferred "K" $ % ,000, ,000 n.a n.a 2.56% Byblos Bank - Listed Shares $ % 169, % $254, % 565,515, , % Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2008 $ % % $82, % 2,000, ,000 n.a n.a -2.56% Byblos Bank Preferred Class 2009 $ % 2, % $242, % 2,000, ,800 n.a n.a -2.57% Byblos Bank GDR $ % % $9, % 1,309, , % BEMO Bank - Listed Shares $ % ,400,000 77, % BEMO Bank Preferred Class 2013 $ % ,000 36,645 n.a n.a 1.36% BLOM Bank GDR $ % 236, % $2,747, % 73,896, , % BLOM Bank Listed Shares $ % 116, % $1,288, % 215,000,000 2,365, % RYMCO Class "B" $ % ,920,000 36, % Holcim Liban $ % 4, % $72, % 19,516, , % Ciment Blancs Nominal $ % ,000,000 25, % Note: n.a stands for not applicable Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit Activity Analysis Previous Last % Change Value Traded ($) 3,062,313 12,790, % Volume Traded 399,588 1,857, % Average Daily Trading Value ($) 1,020,771 3,197, % Average Daily Trading Volume 133, , % Market Cap - BSE ($) 11,251,576,322 11,269,904, % Weighted Average P/E % Weighted Average P/BV % Source: Beirut Stock Exchange, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit % of Weekly Value Traded Total Listed Shares Market Capitalisation ($000) P/E P/BV Evolution of Beirut Bourse Comparable Benchmarks May 03, 2018 May 11, 2018 P/E P/BV YTD Price Perf. Source: BSE, Credit Libanais Economic Research Unit The market-cap weighted average price to earnings (P/E) and price to book value (P/BV) multiples of listed stocks ended their week higher at 7.376x and 0.780x respectively based on the closing prices of Friday s session. SOURCE: BSE, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 13

17 LEBANON S MAIN INDICATORS Recap of Lebanon's Major Indicators MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP (Current Prices) ($ Billion) * 49.46* 49.61* 51.46* 53.62* Real GDP Growth Rate 0.92% 2.80% 2.64% 2.00%* 0.82%* 1.00%* 1.20%* 1.50%* GDP per Capita (Current Prices) ($) 9,144 9,914 10,399* 10,810* 11,178* 11,105* 11,409* 11,775* Foreign Direct Investment Inflows ($ Billion) FDI/GDP Ratio 7.84% 7.09% 5.78% 5.84% 4.71% 5.13% INDUSTRY Industrial Exports ($ Million) 3,530 3,567 3,384 3,150 2,956 2,527 2, (2) Import of Industrial Machinery ($ Million) (2) TOURISM Total Number of Tourists 1,655,051 1,365,845 1,274,362 1,354,647 1,517,927 1,688,357 1,856,795 Growth in Tax-Free Spending 10% - 6% 4% 8% 2% -9% 5% 1.6% (4) REAL ESTATE Value of Real Estate Transactions ($ Million) 8,841 9,175 8,708 8,952 8,006 8,482 9,954 2,012 (4) Number of Real Estate Sales Transactions 82,984 74,569 69,198 70,721 63,386 64,248 73,541 14,181 (4) Construction Permits (000 sqm) 13,890 12,362 10,527 11,159 10,294 9,935 9,271 2,169 (4) Cement Delivery (000 tons) 5,550 5,309 5,831 5,517 5,043 5,265 5, (2) TRANSPORTATION Beirut Port: Freight Activity (000 Tons) 6,677 7,225 8,268 8,281 7,240 8,737 8,629 2,060 (4) Beirut Airport: Number of Passengers (million) (3) FOREIGN TRADE Imports ($ Million) 20,158 21,280 21,228 20,494 18,069 18,705 23,130 4,810 (4) Exports ($ Million) 4,265 4,483 3,936 3,313 2,952 2,977 2, (4) Trade Balance ($ Million) (15,893) (16,797) (17,292) (17,181) (15,117) (15,729) (20,287) (3,996) (4) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Net Foreign Assets at the Financial Sector ($ Million) (1,996) (1,537) (1,127) (1,407) (3,354) 1,238 (157) (2) Foreign Assets at BDL ($ Billion) (6) Gold Reserves at BDL ($ Billion) (6) PUBLIC FINANCE Government Expenditures ($ Million) 11,675 13,321 13,640 13,952 13,528 14,867 15,381 Government Revenues ($ Million) 9,333 9,396 9,420 10,879 9,576 9,923 11,625 Budget Primary Deficit / Surplus ($ Million) 1,662 (110) (240) 1, ,428 Total Deficit ($ Million) (2,342) (3,925) (4,220) (3,073) (3,952) (4,944) (3,756) Deficit / GDP Ratio 5.84% 8.95% 9.17% 6.42% 7.99% 9.97% 7.30% Debt Service / GDP Ratio 9.99% 8.25% 8.24% 9.16% 9.46% 10.01% 10.07% Net Public Debt ($ Billion) (2) Gross Public Debt/GDP Ratio % % % % % %* %* %* MONETARY AGGREGATES & INFLATION M4 ($ Billion) (5) (M2- M1) ($ Billion) (5) Monetization Level (M2/GDP Ratio) 99.32% 99.97% 98.97% % % % % Change in CPI (%) 4.27% 4.68% 2.05% % % 3.14% 5.01% 5.35% (4) BANKING SYSTEM Number of Commercial Banks (1) Number of Branches ,020 1,039 1,056 1,063 (1) Total Assets ($ Million) 140, , , , , , , ,586 (2) Total Deposits ($ Million) 117, , , , , , , ,558 (2) Loans to the Private Sector ($ Million) 39,375 43,452 47,381 50,899 54,224 57,180 60,318 59,613 (2) Customer Loans/ Deposits 33.45% 34.04% 34.05% 34.48% 34.99% 34.35% 34.87% 35.35% (2) Dollarization Rate 65.92% 64.82% 66.14% 65.71% 64.88% 65.82% 68.72% 68.44% (2) Exchange Rate (LBP to USD) 1, , , , , , , , * Figures Reflect IM F Estimates (1) As at End of September, 2017, (2) As at End of January, 2018, (3) A s at End o f February, 2018, (4) A s at End o f M arch, 2018, (5) A s at A pril 19, 2018, (6) As at End of April, 2018 SOURCE: CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 14

18 LEBANON S RATINGS Republic Of Lebanon Sovereign Ratings Rating Agency Tenor Rating Outlook Standard & Poor's Global Ratings Long- Term B- Short- Term B Stable Moody's Investors Service Long- Term B3 Long- Term B- Fitch Ratings Short- Term B Source: Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investors Service, S&P Global Ratings Stable Stable Lebanese Banks' Latest Ratings Rated Banks Moody's Investors Service Fitch Ratings S&P Global Ratings Long Term Foreign Currency Outlook Long Term IDR Outlook Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating Outlook Bank Audi B3 Stable B- Stable B- C Stable BLOM Bank B3 Stable - - B- - Stable Byblos Bank B3 Stable B- Stable BankMed B- C Stable Source: Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investors Service, S&P Global Ratings SOURCE: S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, MOODY S, FITCH RATINGS, CREDIT LIBANAIS ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT 15

19 CONTACTS RESEARCH Fadlo I. Choueiri, CFA EXT: 1280 Jad Abi Haidar, CFA EXT Joelle Samaha EXT Mayda Zaarour EXT Nagham Abdel Ahad EXT Marc Moukarzel EXT MONEY MARKETS DESK Robert Araman EXT This document is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe to or purchase any security, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated herein are accurate and the estimates, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reliable. ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIT - ADLIEH, BEIRUT LEBANON - TEL: FAX:

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