LEBANESE ECONOMY SENDS MIXED SIGNALS ON GROWTH

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1 N 56 May 2017 Page 3 More tourists from the GCC are warming to Beirut Page 4 Consumer prices rose by 5.1% yoy through March 2017 Page 5 Bank loans are increasingly de-dollarized Page 6 IMF brightens outlooks as world economy gains momentum Page 7 Latest data for Lebanon s key economic sectors Page 8 Key trends in the Lebanese economy LEBANESE ECONOMY SENDS MIXED SIGNALS ON GROWTH Real estate sales reached a record $2.3bn in Q Beirut and Tripoli find favor among developers Growth slowed in the first two months of 2017 The Lebanese economy sent mixed signals on growth at the start of 2017 with a looming political crisis over an elections law clouding the country s outlook. Real estate and tourism displayed a major turnaround in activity in the first few months of the year in a sign of improving confidence, while private sector credit growth lagged behind. Activity in the real estate market posted a marked turnaround in early 2017 supported by lower interest rates on housing loans and improvement in the political climate. The value of sales transactions grew by 10.1% yoy to $2.3bn in the first three months, a record high for the period in at least 17 years. More robust activity reflects in part rejuvenated demand by foreigners whose buying volumes increased by 17.5% yoy to reach 282 transactions in the first quarter, data by the Real Estate Registry via Economena Analytics showed. Similarly, Lebanon s tourism sector kicked off 2017 with its best performance since the outbreak of the conflict in Syria in Tourist arrivals surged by 12.3% yoy to 215,309 in the first two months, their second highest level for the period in 15 years, building on a major reversal in the security situation since the implementation of a national security plan in The tourism sector was particularly stronger in light of an increase of 34.7% yoy in the number of visitors from the Gulf Cooperation Council, reflecting improvement in ties between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia following the Presidential elections and the formation of a national unity Cabinet. Lebanese government awards four-year contract worth an estimated $400m for the management of Beirut airport s duty free area. With tourist arrivals on the rise, Beirut s international airport processed over 1 million passenger arrivals and departures in the first two months for the first time in its history. In April, the government awarded a four-year contract for the management of the duty free area to a Lebanese-Irish consortium for $45m per year plus $3.25 per passenger, an estimated $400m over the contract period. Real estate sales () Balance of payments (Jan-Feb, $m) ext Source: Real Estate Registry, Economena, SGBL Research , Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research

2 Like tourists, consumers too proved resilient to political shocks in the first quarter. New passenger car registrations hit a record high of 8,118 vehicles, up 1.6% yoy during the period, according to data by the Association of Car Importers. Private consumption still faced headwinds from higher oil prices and from the government s proposed plan to raise taxes. As a result, the Consumer Prices Index grew by 5.1% yoy through March 2017, its fastest pace in four years, according to the Central Administration of Statistics. Oil prices are expected to average $55 per barrel in 2017 and to remain stable in Although the prospects of higher taxes remain uncertain, oil prices are expected to average $55 a barrel during the year and to remain stable in 2018, according to the IMF, which may offer consumers some respite in coming months. In the construction sector, developers seem intent on delivering existing projects, with cement deliveries, a proxy for current construction activity, up by 1.3% yoy to 652,100 tons through February. The outlook looks especially promising in Beirut and Tripoli where the area of construction permits issued by the country s two orders of engineers increased by 64.5% yoy and 14.3% yoy respectively. Construction projects in urban areas typically involve high-value developments, offering some hope for contractors in a medium-term recovery in the sector. GROWTH SLOWER THROUGH FEBRUARY The uptick in tourism and real estate, however, was offset by sluggish credit activity in the first two months of Claims on the private sector increased by 4.5% yoy to $57bn through February, equivalent to a net decline of $172m in loans since the start of the year. In particular, Lebanese banks are increasingly tapping into their local currency liquidity for private sector lending, even as foreign currency deposits pour in at their fastest pace in over three years. The dollarization rate of claims on the resident private sector fell to a two-decade low of 68.8% in February 2017, boding ill for banks profit margins given tighter spreads on LBP accounts than on foreign currency ones. By contrast, growth in foreign currencies contributed to 75.9% of the increase in private sector deposits in the first two months of 2017, lifting the dollarization rate to 65.9% by February. Acceleration in deposit inflows from abroad also helped tilt the country s balance of payments to a surplus of $509m by February from a deficit of $356m over the same period in Faster growth in deposits, however, was partially overshadowed by concerns over the indirect impact on the Lebanese financial sector from possible new sanctions by the US targeting Hezbollah s financing activities. Solidere s A shares are down by 31.4% since the end of October The specter of new sanctions legislation in Congress and uncertainty over an elections law in Lebanon pulled Beirut s listed stocks down by 5.2% in April, sending them back to their levels prior to the Presidential elections. Solidere s A shares resumed their decline during the month to close at $8.5 per share at the end of April, down 31.4% from their level at the end of October Growth in BDL s Coincident Indicator, a proxy for economic growth, reached an average of 4.8% yoy in the first two months, down from 7.8% yoy over the same period in The Lebanese economy is projected to grow by 2% in 2017, twice its pace in 2016, according to the IMF, while growth in the MENA region is forecast to decelerate to 2.3% in 2017, its slowest pace in 5 years. Construction indicators (12m average, %yoy) BdL CI (Jan-Feb, % yoy) % Cement Permits 15% 5% 5% -5% -5% % -15% % -25% Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 16% 14.5% 14% 12% 8% 6% 7.8% 4.8% 4% 3.2% 2% 2% -2% -1.1% -4% -6% Source: BdL, OEAB, OEAT, Economena, SGBL Research Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research

3 TOURISM MORE TOURISTS FROM THE GCC ARE WARMING TO BEIRUT Tourist arrivals up 12.3% yoy to 215,309 through February 2017 Visitors from the GCC hit a five-year high by February Tourist spending picked up by 8% yoy in the first quarter Lebanon s tourism sector kicked off 2017 with its best performance since the conflict in Syria erupted in The number of tourist arrivals surged by 12.3% yoy to 215,309 in the first two months, its second highest level for the period in at least 15 years, building on a major turnaround in the security situation since the start of a national security plan in And in a long-awaited reversal, the number of arrivals from the Gulf Cooperation Council grew by 34.7% yoy in the first two months to a five-year high of 18,825 visitors, reflecting improvement in ties between Lebanon and GCC countries. Renewed appetite for trips to Lebanon was broad-based with arrivals from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman each rising by 44% to 57% during the period. Despite the upsurge, the number of arrivals from the GCC remains a far cry from the levels seen during the heydays of 2009 and Instead, Arab tourism activity continues to be dominated by tourists from Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt, who comprised 16.1%, 8.1%, and 5.4% of the total respectively through February Further security and political stability in recent months is also helping attract more tourists from Europe, the ed States, and Australia, many of whom are likely Lebanese expatriates. In particular, the number of arrivals from Australia surged by 20.8% yoy to a record 5,881 tourists in the first two months, in line with record arrivals for the period from France, Great Britain, Germany, and the ed States. The rising tide of tourists, especially from the GCC, is converting more effectively into higher spending in Lebanon. Tourist spending increased by an estimated 8% yoy in the first quarter of 2017, tax refund data by Global Blue showed. Visitors from Saudi Arabia remained the biggest spending foreign group in Lebanon during the period, with 16% of total refunded amounts, followed by Emiratis and Kuwaitis with 13% and 8% respectively. Besides stores, hotels are among the greatest beneficiaries of rejuvenated Gulf tourism. Occupancy rates at Beirut s 4-and 5-star hotels reached 61.7% through February 2017 compared with 56.4% in the first 2 months of 2016, the highest for the period since Visitors from Saudi Arabia were the biggest spending foreign group in Lebanon in the first quarter of Hotel revenues also likely strengthened in the first two months of 2017 amid an increase of 9.5% yoy in the average Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) to $86.5 during the period, according to a survey by Ernst & Young. Tourist arrivals (Jan-Feb 2017, %yoy) Tourism indicators (12m moving average) Qatar KSA Kuwait Iraq Iran Australia TOTAL Jordan Britain France Germany USA Canada Egypt -1.1% -3.9% 26.9% 25.5% 20.8% 12.3% 10.8% 9.7% 9.2% 7.1% 6.5% 46.6% 46.6% 44.5% Tourist arrivals ('000) Beirut hotel occupancy (%) 59.9% % 6 55% 5 45% Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Source: MoT, Economena, SGBL Research Source: MoT, EY, Economena, SGBL Research

4 CONSUMER CONSUMER PRICES ROSE BY 5.1% YOY THROUGH MARCH 2017 Inflation accelerated the most outside Beirut and Mount Lebanon Consumers confident in security, doubtful over future income Passenger car sales switched into higher gear in March Lebanon s inflation accelerated through March 2017 on higher fuel prices and on expectations of higher customs and business taxes as part of the state s budget for The Consumer Prices Index grew by 5.1% yoy through March 2017, its fastest pace in four years, according to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS). Brent crude oil prices rose by 58.4% yoy to an average of $53.6 per barrel in the first quarter of 2017, adding to upward pressure on prices of private utilities and fuel which rose by 17.2% yoy by March, its fastest rate in almost a decade. Oil prices are expected to average $55 a barrel in 2017 and to hover around the same level in 2018, according to the IMF, which may offer consumers some respite in coming months. The government had announced plans in early 2017 to increase customs duties on luxury goods and to raise corporate tax rates in a bid to increase revenues, leading retailers to mark up prices on expectations of a wave of tax hikes. Prices of clothing and footwear, which comprise 5.4% of an average household s budget, accelerated in the early months of the year with inflation reaching 10.3% yoy by March, data by CAS showed. On the other hand, inflation in food and non-alcoholic beverages, households biggest spending category with 20.6% of the total budget, remained relatively tame, up just 2.4% yoy over the same period. Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation remained tame at just 2.4% yoy by March. The surge in prices is starting to take a toll on consumer confidence levels, although the general sentiment remains anchored by a stable security situation. Consumer optimism over future income appears to have waned in the first quarter of 2017 following the government s proposal to raise taxes, but the security sub-index held on to its highest level in the post-syrian conflict period. Elevated political discord created some headwinds for consumer spending in the early months of the year, but spending is still projected to maintain greater buoyancy than in New passenger car registrations hit a record of 8,118 vehicles in the first quarter of 2017, up 1.6% yoy during the period, according to data by the Association of Car Importers. The number of cars imported through the Port of Beirut also surged to a four-year high of 22,407 vehicles in the first quarter of 2017, likely reflecting optimism over local demand for durable goods as well as car dealers efforts to replenish their inventories. Consumer confidence (3-month moving average) Current security 120 Future income Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Source: ARA, Economena, SGBL Research Consumer price indices (March 2017, %yoy) Utilities and fuels 17.2% Old rent 13. Clothing and footwear 10.3% Transportation 9.8% Alcohol & tobacco 6.5% CPI - National 5.1% Owner-occupied rent 4. Recreation & amusement 3.4% New rent 3.3% Education 2.7% F&B (non-alcoholic) 2.4% Restaurants & hotels 1.9% Communication 0.4% Health-1.5% Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research

5 BANKING BANK LOANS ARE INCREASINGLY DE-DOLLARIZED Dollarization of loans at a two-decade low of 68.8% Private sector deposits surged by 8.2% yoy through February Cost of US Dollar deposits at a nine-year high Lebanese banks are increasingly tapping into their local currency liquidity for private sector lending, even as foreign currency deposits pour in at their fastest pace in over three years. The focus on local currency lending is likely to add to pressure on banks profit margins given tighter spreads on LBP accounts than on foreign currency ones. Claims on the resident private sector in Lebanese Pound increased by 15.7% yoy to $15.9bn in February 2017, equivalent to a net production of $269.3m in the first two months of the year. By contrast, claims in foreign currencies rose by just 2% yoy to $35.1bn in February, a record decrease of $259.5m since the start of The move to local currency lending is supported by a series of BdL incentives and a stimulus package of $1bn aimed at propping up loans to the residential and productive sectors in As a result, the dollarization rate of claims on the resident private sector fell to a two-decade low of 68.8% by February Banks were also left with abundant liquidity in Lebanese Pound following the Central Bank s swap operations in 2016, a large portion of which was re-invested in newly-issued 5-year Treasury bills. While helping bolster BdL s foreign reserves, the financial mechanism lifted the cost of US Dollar deposits, prompting banks to preserve their foreign currency holdings for possible future rounds of swap operations. The Central Bank announced in late 2016 the conclusion of its swap operations, but the value of outstanding US Dollar Certificates of Deposit, the main tool used in BdL s financial mechanism, increased by $500m to $22.4bn in January and remained unchanged in February. The average interest rate on US Dollar deposits reached 3.57% in the three months through February 2017, 35 basis points more than in the same period of 2016, and its highest level in over nine years, according to the Association of Banks in Lebanon. Banks, however, seem undeterred by rising costs. Private sector deposits at commercial banks increased by 8.2% yoy to $163.9bn in February, equivalent to an additional $1.4bn in the first two months. The average interest rate on US Dollar deposits reached 3.57% in the three months through February, its highest level in over nine years. Rates on foreign currency deposits may rise even further in 2017 if the Federal Reserve remains on course to raise rates during the year. The US policy interest rate is projected to rise by 75 basis points in 2017 and by 125 basis points in 2018, reaching a long-term equilibrium rate of just below 3% in 2019, according to the IMF. Private sector deposits (Jan-Feb, ) Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research Claims on the private sector (%yoy) 5 45% 4 LBP 35% FX 3 25% % 15% 5% 2. Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research

6 IMF BRIGHTENS OUTLOOK AS WORLD ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM Global economy to expand by 3.5% in 2017 and by 3.6% in 2018 Activity recovering across most of Europe, the ed States, and Canada Russia, Nigeria, and Brazil emerge from recession on higher commodities prices The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global growth in 2017 to 3.5% in April, up 0.1% from its forecast in January, and held its growth outlook for 2018 stable at 3.6%. The IMF cited buoyant financial markets and a long-awaited cyclical recovery in manufacturing and trade as drivers of the economic recovery, projecting a marked picked up in activity in emerging markets and developing economies. If confidence and market sentiment remain strong, short-term growth could even surprise on the upside, stated the IMF. In the ed States, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.3% in 2017 from 1.6% in 2016, reflecting the assumed fiscal policy easing and an uptick in confidence, especially after the November elections, predicted the IMF. The latter s outlook for Europe and Japan has also improved, with the Euro Area economy projected to grow by 1.7% in 2017 and Japanese economic activity seen accelerating to 1.2% during the year, both driven by a pickup in global manufacturing and trade activity starting the second half of Brazil, Russia, and Nigeria are all expected to emerge from deep recession to post positive growth in 2017, buoyed by improvement in commodities prices. Russia s economy had contracted by 0.2% in 2016 but is forecast to grow by 1.4% in both 2017 and 2018 in line with a projected rebound in oil prices by 28.9% during the year. However, the IMF warned that a faster-than-expected pace of interest rate hikes in the ed States could tighten financial conditions elsewhere, with potential further U.S. dollar appreciation straining emerging market economies with exchange rate pegs to the dollar or with material balance sheet mismatches. IMF forecasts for 2017 (April, 2017) Real GDP growth Inflation Libya 53.7% 32.8% Djibouti Sudan 3.7% 23.2% Egypt 3.5% 22. Qatar 3.4% 2.6% Iran 3.3% 11.2% Tunisia 2.5% 3.9% Jordan 2.3% 2.3% Lebanon % ed Arab Emirates 1.5% 2.8% Algeria 1.4% 4.8% Oman 0.4% 4.1% Saudi Arabia 0.4% 3.8% Kuwait -0.2% 4.2% Iraq -3.1% 2. Source: IMF, Economena, SGBL Research At the same time, a turn towards protectionism threatens the economic recovery as it could undermine international trading relationships and multilateral cooperation, stated the IMF. The post World War II system of international economic relations is under severe strain despite the aggregate benefits it has delivered, according to the IMF, which called on governments to follow trade policies consistent with maximum productivity while simultaneously improving the internal distribution of trade gains. The IMF also advocated for policies aimed at supporting demand and for structural reforms that would contribute to boosting productivity and labor supply, including upgrades to public infrastructure. DIVERGENT GROWTH TRENDS IN MENA While the world moves into greener territory, Middle Eastern economies, especially oil exporters, are slowing down despite an uptick in oil prices. Economic growth in the MENA region is forecast to decelerate to 2.3% in 2017, its slowest pace in 5 years, and a downward revision of 0.6% since January Saudi Arabia s economy, MENA s largest, is projected to grow by just 0.4% in 2017, down from 1.4% in 2016 and 4.1% in 2015, because of lower oil production and ongoing fiscal consolidation, stated the IMF. Other GCC countries are also expected to witness a dip in growth rates, including a drop to 1.5% in 2017 from 2.7% in 2016 in the ed Arab Emirates. By contrast, real GDP growth at oil importers in the region will likely continue to rebound to 4% in 2017 and 4.4% in In Lebanon, growth may double to 2% in 2017 and further accelerate to 2.5% in 2018, while economic activity in Jordan and Morocco is projected to inch up by 2.3% and 4.4% respectively in The outlook for Egypt appears even more favorable with comprehensive reforms expected to deliver sizable growth dividends, lifting growth from 3.5% in 2017 to 4.5% by 2018, according to the IMF. Lebanon: current account deficit (% of GDP) 3 25% 2 15% 5% 19.4% 7.2% 28.1% f 15.5% Source: IMF, Economena, SGBL Research

7 Key indicators Cleared cheques Real estate transactions Construction permits Cement deliveries Tourist arrivals Airport traffic Balance of payments Money supply: M3 BSE volumes Passenger car sales Hotel occupancy (average) Sqm, m Tons, m m m m % , Dec , Jan , Feb , YTD , PYTD , Indices Consumer Confidence Index - ARA Consumer Price Index Purchasing Managers' Index BdL Coincident Indicator Jan Feb Mar n.a %YTD Trade Imports Exports Trade balance Port of Beirut volumes TEUs, m Dec Jan Feb YTD PYTD Financial and monetary Commercial bank assets Claims on the resident private sector Claims on the non-resident private sector Claims on the public sector Resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Non-resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Private sector deposits with commercial banks Private loans / deposits Public sector deposits BdL foreign assets BSE market capitalization Gross public debt % % % Dec Jan Feb YTD %YTD Public finance Revenues Value Added Tax Telecommunications Income taxes Customs taxes Expenditures Transfers to EdL Debt service Primary balance Fiscal balance Oct Nov Dec YTD: year-to-date, PYTD: previous year-to-date. Source: MoF, BdL, BSE, ARA, Customs, Markit, EY, RHIA, CAS, Economena, SGBL Research YTD PYTD

8 Outstanding amount of BdL CDs in US Dollar () The value of Certificates of Deposit issued by the Central Bank in US Dollar remained unchanged in February 2017 for the first time since BdL launched its swap operations in early At $22.4bn, the value of outstanding CDs is up $500m since the start of the year. Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research Private sector employees earning $2,500 per month were among the most optimistic consumers in Lebanon in the last quarter of 2016, survey data showed. On the other hand, public sector employees lagged behind over the same period. Manufacturing companies: total sales () Exports by desintation (Jan-Feb 2017) Manufacturing sales declined by 12.9% to $8.8bn in 2015, data by the Association of Lebanese Industrialists showed. Rising competition from foreign products appears to have hit manufacturers hard, as revenues from the local market fell by $1.1bn during the year. Confidence in 4Q16 (difference from average) $2,500 and above Private sector employee Mount Lebanon years $1,500-$2, years North Lebanon Female years South Lebanon $750-$1, years Public sector employee Bekaa Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Unemployed Source: AUB, Economena, SGBL Research 24.2 South Africa and Syria topped the list of destinations for Lebanese exports in the first two months of 2017 with market shares of 13.7% and 11.5% respectively. Exports to Syria almost doubled to $52.3m in the first two months compared with $28.4m in the first two months of Exports Local sales % 13.7% 11.5% 7.8% 7.7% 7.3% South Africa Syria UAE Switzerland Saudi Arabia Others Source: ALI, Economena, SGBL Research Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research

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