LEBANESE ECONOMY SENDS MIXED SIGNALS ON GROWTH
|
|
- Adelia Norton
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 N 56 May 2017 Page 3 More tourists from the GCC are warming to Beirut Page 4 Consumer prices rose by 5.1% yoy through March 2017 Page 5 Bank loans are increasingly de-dollarized Page 6 IMF brightens outlooks as world economy gains momentum Page 7 Latest data for Lebanon s key economic sectors Page 8 Key trends in the Lebanese economy LEBANESE ECONOMY SENDS MIXED SIGNALS ON GROWTH Real estate sales reached a record $2.3bn in Q Beirut and Tripoli find favor among developers Growth slowed in the first two months of 2017 The Lebanese economy sent mixed signals on growth at the start of 2017 with a looming political crisis over an elections law clouding the country s outlook. Real estate and tourism displayed a major turnaround in activity in the first few months of the year in a sign of improving confidence, while private sector credit growth lagged behind. Activity in the real estate market posted a marked turnaround in early 2017 supported by lower interest rates on housing loans and improvement in the political climate. The value of sales transactions grew by 10.1% yoy to $2.3bn in the first three months, a record high for the period in at least 17 years. More robust activity reflects in part rejuvenated demand by foreigners whose buying volumes increased by 17.5% yoy to reach 282 transactions in the first quarter, data by the Real Estate Registry via Economena Analytics showed. Similarly, Lebanon s tourism sector kicked off 2017 with its best performance since the outbreak of the conflict in Syria in Tourist arrivals surged by 12.3% yoy to 215,309 in the first two months, their second highest level for the period in 15 years, building on a major reversal in the security situation since the implementation of a national security plan in The tourism sector was particularly stronger in light of an increase of 34.7% yoy in the number of visitors from the Gulf Cooperation Council, reflecting improvement in ties between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia following the Presidential elections and the formation of a national unity Cabinet. Lebanese government awards four-year contract worth an estimated $400m for the management of Beirut airport s duty free area. With tourist arrivals on the rise, Beirut s international airport processed over 1 million passenger arrivals and departures in the first two months for the first time in its history. In April, the government awarded a four-year contract for the management of the duty free area to a Lebanese-Irish consortium for $45m per year plus $3.25 per passenger, an estimated $400m over the contract period. Real estate sales () Balance of payments (Jan-Feb, $m) ext Source: Real Estate Registry, Economena, SGBL Research , Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research
2 Like tourists, consumers too proved resilient to political shocks in the first quarter. New passenger car registrations hit a record high of 8,118 vehicles, up 1.6% yoy during the period, according to data by the Association of Car Importers. Private consumption still faced headwinds from higher oil prices and from the government s proposed plan to raise taxes. As a result, the Consumer Prices Index grew by 5.1% yoy through March 2017, its fastest pace in four years, according to the Central Administration of Statistics. Oil prices are expected to average $55 per barrel in 2017 and to remain stable in Although the prospects of higher taxes remain uncertain, oil prices are expected to average $55 a barrel during the year and to remain stable in 2018, according to the IMF, which may offer consumers some respite in coming months. In the construction sector, developers seem intent on delivering existing projects, with cement deliveries, a proxy for current construction activity, up by 1.3% yoy to 652,100 tons through February. The outlook looks especially promising in Beirut and Tripoli where the area of construction permits issued by the country s two orders of engineers increased by 64.5% yoy and 14.3% yoy respectively. Construction projects in urban areas typically involve high-value developments, offering some hope for contractors in a medium-term recovery in the sector. GROWTH SLOWER THROUGH FEBRUARY The uptick in tourism and real estate, however, was offset by sluggish credit activity in the first two months of Claims on the private sector increased by 4.5% yoy to $57bn through February, equivalent to a net decline of $172m in loans since the start of the year. In particular, Lebanese banks are increasingly tapping into their local currency liquidity for private sector lending, even as foreign currency deposits pour in at their fastest pace in over three years. The dollarization rate of claims on the resident private sector fell to a two-decade low of 68.8% in February 2017, boding ill for banks profit margins given tighter spreads on LBP accounts than on foreign currency ones. By contrast, growth in foreign currencies contributed to 75.9% of the increase in private sector deposits in the first two months of 2017, lifting the dollarization rate to 65.9% by February. Acceleration in deposit inflows from abroad also helped tilt the country s balance of payments to a surplus of $509m by February from a deficit of $356m over the same period in Faster growth in deposits, however, was partially overshadowed by concerns over the indirect impact on the Lebanese financial sector from possible new sanctions by the US targeting Hezbollah s financing activities. Solidere s A shares are down by 31.4% since the end of October The specter of new sanctions legislation in Congress and uncertainty over an elections law in Lebanon pulled Beirut s listed stocks down by 5.2% in April, sending them back to their levels prior to the Presidential elections. Solidere s A shares resumed their decline during the month to close at $8.5 per share at the end of April, down 31.4% from their level at the end of October Growth in BDL s Coincident Indicator, a proxy for economic growth, reached an average of 4.8% yoy in the first two months, down from 7.8% yoy over the same period in The Lebanese economy is projected to grow by 2% in 2017, twice its pace in 2016, according to the IMF, while growth in the MENA region is forecast to decelerate to 2.3% in 2017, its slowest pace in 5 years. Construction indicators (12m average, %yoy) BdL CI (Jan-Feb, % yoy) % Cement Permits 15% 5% 5% -5% -5% % -15% % -25% Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 16% 14.5% 14% 12% 8% 6% 7.8% 4.8% 4% 3.2% 2% 2% -2% -1.1% -4% -6% Source: BdL, OEAB, OEAT, Economena, SGBL Research Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research
3 TOURISM MORE TOURISTS FROM THE GCC ARE WARMING TO BEIRUT Tourist arrivals up 12.3% yoy to 215,309 through February 2017 Visitors from the GCC hit a five-year high by February Tourist spending picked up by 8% yoy in the first quarter Lebanon s tourism sector kicked off 2017 with its best performance since the conflict in Syria erupted in The number of tourist arrivals surged by 12.3% yoy to 215,309 in the first two months, its second highest level for the period in at least 15 years, building on a major turnaround in the security situation since the start of a national security plan in And in a long-awaited reversal, the number of arrivals from the Gulf Cooperation Council grew by 34.7% yoy in the first two months to a five-year high of 18,825 visitors, reflecting improvement in ties between Lebanon and GCC countries. Renewed appetite for trips to Lebanon was broad-based with arrivals from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman each rising by 44% to 57% during the period. Despite the upsurge, the number of arrivals from the GCC remains a far cry from the levels seen during the heydays of 2009 and Instead, Arab tourism activity continues to be dominated by tourists from Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt, who comprised 16.1%, 8.1%, and 5.4% of the total respectively through February Further security and political stability in recent months is also helping attract more tourists from Europe, the ed States, and Australia, many of whom are likely Lebanese expatriates. In particular, the number of arrivals from Australia surged by 20.8% yoy to a record 5,881 tourists in the first two months, in line with record arrivals for the period from France, Great Britain, Germany, and the ed States. The rising tide of tourists, especially from the GCC, is converting more effectively into higher spending in Lebanon. Tourist spending increased by an estimated 8% yoy in the first quarter of 2017, tax refund data by Global Blue showed. Visitors from Saudi Arabia remained the biggest spending foreign group in Lebanon during the period, with 16% of total refunded amounts, followed by Emiratis and Kuwaitis with 13% and 8% respectively. Besides stores, hotels are among the greatest beneficiaries of rejuvenated Gulf tourism. Occupancy rates at Beirut s 4-and 5-star hotels reached 61.7% through February 2017 compared with 56.4% in the first 2 months of 2016, the highest for the period since Visitors from Saudi Arabia were the biggest spending foreign group in Lebanon in the first quarter of Hotel revenues also likely strengthened in the first two months of 2017 amid an increase of 9.5% yoy in the average Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) to $86.5 during the period, according to a survey by Ernst & Young. Tourist arrivals (Jan-Feb 2017, %yoy) Tourism indicators (12m moving average) Qatar KSA Kuwait Iraq Iran Australia TOTAL Jordan Britain France Germany USA Canada Egypt -1.1% -3.9% 26.9% 25.5% 20.8% 12.3% 10.8% 9.7% 9.2% 7.1% 6.5% 46.6% 46.6% 44.5% Tourist arrivals ('000) Beirut hotel occupancy (%) 59.9% % 6 55% 5 45% Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Source: MoT, Economena, SGBL Research Source: MoT, EY, Economena, SGBL Research
4 CONSUMER CONSUMER PRICES ROSE BY 5.1% YOY THROUGH MARCH 2017 Inflation accelerated the most outside Beirut and Mount Lebanon Consumers confident in security, doubtful over future income Passenger car sales switched into higher gear in March Lebanon s inflation accelerated through March 2017 on higher fuel prices and on expectations of higher customs and business taxes as part of the state s budget for The Consumer Prices Index grew by 5.1% yoy through March 2017, its fastest pace in four years, according to the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS). Brent crude oil prices rose by 58.4% yoy to an average of $53.6 per barrel in the first quarter of 2017, adding to upward pressure on prices of private utilities and fuel which rose by 17.2% yoy by March, its fastest rate in almost a decade. Oil prices are expected to average $55 a barrel in 2017 and to hover around the same level in 2018, according to the IMF, which may offer consumers some respite in coming months. The government had announced plans in early 2017 to increase customs duties on luxury goods and to raise corporate tax rates in a bid to increase revenues, leading retailers to mark up prices on expectations of a wave of tax hikes. Prices of clothing and footwear, which comprise 5.4% of an average household s budget, accelerated in the early months of the year with inflation reaching 10.3% yoy by March, data by CAS showed. On the other hand, inflation in food and non-alcoholic beverages, households biggest spending category with 20.6% of the total budget, remained relatively tame, up just 2.4% yoy over the same period. Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation remained tame at just 2.4% yoy by March. The surge in prices is starting to take a toll on consumer confidence levels, although the general sentiment remains anchored by a stable security situation. Consumer optimism over future income appears to have waned in the first quarter of 2017 following the government s proposal to raise taxes, but the security sub-index held on to its highest level in the post-syrian conflict period. Elevated political discord created some headwinds for consumer spending in the early months of the year, but spending is still projected to maintain greater buoyancy than in New passenger car registrations hit a record of 8,118 vehicles in the first quarter of 2017, up 1.6% yoy during the period, according to data by the Association of Car Importers. The number of cars imported through the Port of Beirut also surged to a four-year high of 22,407 vehicles in the first quarter of 2017, likely reflecting optimism over local demand for durable goods as well as car dealers efforts to replenish their inventories. Consumer confidence (3-month moving average) Current security 120 Future income Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Source: ARA, Economena, SGBL Research Consumer price indices (March 2017, %yoy) Utilities and fuels 17.2% Old rent 13. Clothing and footwear 10.3% Transportation 9.8% Alcohol & tobacco 6.5% CPI - National 5.1% Owner-occupied rent 4. Recreation & amusement 3.4% New rent 3.3% Education 2.7% F&B (non-alcoholic) 2.4% Restaurants & hotels 1.9% Communication 0.4% Health-1.5% Source: CAS, Economena, SGBL Research
5 BANKING BANK LOANS ARE INCREASINGLY DE-DOLLARIZED Dollarization of loans at a two-decade low of 68.8% Private sector deposits surged by 8.2% yoy through February Cost of US Dollar deposits at a nine-year high Lebanese banks are increasingly tapping into their local currency liquidity for private sector lending, even as foreign currency deposits pour in at their fastest pace in over three years. The focus on local currency lending is likely to add to pressure on banks profit margins given tighter spreads on LBP accounts than on foreign currency ones. Claims on the resident private sector in Lebanese Pound increased by 15.7% yoy to $15.9bn in February 2017, equivalent to a net production of $269.3m in the first two months of the year. By contrast, claims in foreign currencies rose by just 2% yoy to $35.1bn in February, a record decrease of $259.5m since the start of The move to local currency lending is supported by a series of BdL incentives and a stimulus package of $1bn aimed at propping up loans to the residential and productive sectors in As a result, the dollarization rate of claims on the resident private sector fell to a two-decade low of 68.8% by February Banks were also left with abundant liquidity in Lebanese Pound following the Central Bank s swap operations in 2016, a large portion of which was re-invested in newly-issued 5-year Treasury bills. While helping bolster BdL s foreign reserves, the financial mechanism lifted the cost of US Dollar deposits, prompting banks to preserve their foreign currency holdings for possible future rounds of swap operations. The Central Bank announced in late 2016 the conclusion of its swap operations, but the value of outstanding US Dollar Certificates of Deposit, the main tool used in BdL s financial mechanism, increased by $500m to $22.4bn in January and remained unchanged in February. The average interest rate on US Dollar deposits reached 3.57% in the three months through February 2017, 35 basis points more than in the same period of 2016, and its highest level in over nine years, according to the Association of Banks in Lebanon. Banks, however, seem undeterred by rising costs. Private sector deposits at commercial banks increased by 8.2% yoy to $163.9bn in February, equivalent to an additional $1.4bn in the first two months. The average interest rate on US Dollar deposits reached 3.57% in the three months through February, its highest level in over nine years. Rates on foreign currency deposits may rise even further in 2017 if the Federal Reserve remains on course to raise rates during the year. The US policy interest rate is projected to rise by 75 basis points in 2017 and by 125 basis points in 2018, reaching a long-term equilibrium rate of just below 3% in 2019, according to the IMF. Private sector deposits (Jan-Feb, ) Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research Claims on the private sector (%yoy) 5 45% 4 LBP 35% FX 3 25% % 15% 5% 2. Feb-11 Feb-13 Feb-15 Feb-17 Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research
6 IMF BRIGHTENS OUTLOOK AS WORLD ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM Global economy to expand by 3.5% in 2017 and by 3.6% in 2018 Activity recovering across most of Europe, the ed States, and Canada Russia, Nigeria, and Brazil emerge from recession on higher commodities prices The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global growth in 2017 to 3.5% in April, up 0.1% from its forecast in January, and held its growth outlook for 2018 stable at 3.6%. The IMF cited buoyant financial markets and a long-awaited cyclical recovery in manufacturing and trade as drivers of the economic recovery, projecting a marked picked up in activity in emerging markets and developing economies. If confidence and market sentiment remain strong, short-term growth could even surprise on the upside, stated the IMF. In the ed States, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.3% in 2017 from 1.6% in 2016, reflecting the assumed fiscal policy easing and an uptick in confidence, especially after the November elections, predicted the IMF. The latter s outlook for Europe and Japan has also improved, with the Euro Area economy projected to grow by 1.7% in 2017 and Japanese economic activity seen accelerating to 1.2% during the year, both driven by a pickup in global manufacturing and trade activity starting the second half of Brazil, Russia, and Nigeria are all expected to emerge from deep recession to post positive growth in 2017, buoyed by improvement in commodities prices. Russia s economy had contracted by 0.2% in 2016 but is forecast to grow by 1.4% in both 2017 and 2018 in line with a projected rebound in oil prices by 28.9% during the year. However, the IMF warned that a faster-than-expected pace of interest rate hikes in the ed States could tighten financial conditions elsewhere, with potential further U.S. dollar appreciation straining emerging market economies with exchange rate pegs to the dollar or with material balance sheet mismatches. IMF forecasts for 2017 (April, 2017) Real GDP growth Inflation Libya 53.7% 32.8% Djibouti Sudan 3.7% 23.2% Egypt 3.5% 22. Qatar 3.4% 2.6% Iran 3.3% 11.2% Tunisia 2.5% 3.9% Jordan 2.3% 2.3% Lebanon % ed Arab Emirates 1.5% 2.8% Algeria 1.4% 4.8% Oman 0.4% 4.1% Saudi Arabia 0.4% 3.8% Kuwait -0.2% 4.2% Iraq -3.1% 2. Source: IMF, Economena, SGBL Research At the same time, a turn towards protectionism threatens the economic recovery as it could undermine international trading relationships and multilateral cooperation, stated the IMF. The post World War II system of international economic relations is under severe strain despite the aggregate benefits it has delivered, according to the IMF, which called on governments to follow trade policies consistent with maximum productivity while simultaneously improving the internal distribution of trade gains. The IMF also advocated for policies aimed at supporting demand and for structural reforms that would contribute to boosting productivity and labor supply, including upgrades to public infrastructure. DIVERGENT GROWTH TRENDS IN MENA While the world moves into greener territory, Middle Eastern economies, especially oil exporters, are slowing down despite an uptick in oil prices. Economic growth in the MENA region is forecast to decelerate to 2.3% in 2017, its slowest pace in 5 years, and a downward revision of 0.6% since January Saudi Arabia s economy, MENA s largest, is projected to grow by just 0.4% in 2017, down from 1.4% in 2016 and 4.1% in 2015, because of lower oil production and ongoing fiscal consolidation, stated the IMF. Other GCC countries are also expected to witness a dip in growth rates, including a drop to 1.5% in 2017 from 2.7% in 2016 in the ed Arab Emirates. By contrast, real GDP growth at oil importers in the region will likely continue to rebound to 4% in 2017 and 4.4% in In Lebanon, growth may double to 2% in 2017 and further accelerate to 2.5% in 2018, while economic activity in Jordan and Morocco is projected to inch up by 2.3% and 4.4% respectively in The outlook for Egypt appears even more favorable with comprehensive reforms expected to deliver sizable growth dividends, lifting growth from 3.5% in 2017 to 4.5% by 2018, according to the IMF. Lebanon: current account deficit (% of GDP) 3 25% 2 15% 5% 19.4% 7.2% 28.1% f 15.5% Source: IMF, Economena, SGBL Research
7 Key indicators Cleared cheques Real estate transactions Construction permits Cement deliveries Tourist arrivals Airport traffic Balance of payments Money supply: M3 BSE volumes Passenger car sales Hotel occupancy (average) Sqm, m Tons, m m m m % , Dec , Jan , Feb , YTD , PYTD , Indices Consumer Confidence Index - ARA Consumer Price Index Purchasing Managers' Index BdL Coincident Indicator Jan Feb Mar n.a %YTD Trade Imports Exports Trade balance Port of Beirut volumes TEUs, m Dec Jan Feb YTD PYTD Financial and monetary Commercial bank assets Claims on the resident private sector Claims on the non-resident private sector Claims on the public sector Resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Non-resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Private sector deposits with commercial banks Private loans / deposits Public sector deposits BdL foreign assets BSE market capitalization Gross public debt % % % Dec Jan Feb YTD %YTD Public finance Revenues Value Added Tax Telecommunications Income taxes Customs taxes Expenditures Transfers to EdL Debt service Primary balance Fiscal balance Oct Nov Dec YTD: year-to-date, PYTD: previous year-to-date. Source: MoF, BdL, BSE, ARA, Customs, Markit, EY, RHIA, CAS, Economena, SGBL Research YTD PYTD
8 Outstanding amount of BdL CDs in US Dollar () The value of Certificates of Deposit issued by the Central Bank in US Dollar remained unchanged in February 2017 for the first time since BdL launched its swap operations in early At $22.4bn, the value of outstanding CDs is up $500m since the start of the year. Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research Private sector employees earning $2,500 per month were among the most optimistic consumers in Lebanon in the last quarter of 2016, survey data showed. On the other hand, public sector employees lagged behind over the same period. Manufacturing companies: total sales () Exports by desintation (Jan-Feb 2017) Manufacturing sales declined by 12.9% to $8.8bn in 2015, data by the Association of Lebanese Industrialists showed. Rising competition from foreign products appears to have hit manufacturers hard, as revenues from the local market fell by $1.1bn during the year. Confidence in 4Q16 (difference from average) $2,500 and above Private sector employee Mount Lebanon years $1,500-$2, years North Lebanon Female years South Lebanon $750-$1, years Public sector employee Bekaa Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Unemployed Source: AUB, Economena, SGBL Research 24.2 South Africa and Syria topped the list of destinations for Lebanese exports in the first two months of 2017 with market shares of 13.7% and 11.5% respectively. Exports to Syria almost doubled to $52.3m in the first two months compared with $28.4m in the first two months of Exports Local sales % 13.7% 11.5% 7.8% 7.7% 7.3% South Africa Syria UAE Switzerland Saudi Arabia Others Source: ALI, Economena, SGBL Research Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research
MONETARY CONDITIONS IMPROVED AT THE START OF 2018
N 65 February 2018 Page 3 Lebanese exports to the GCC rebounded in 2017 Page 4 Consumer prices accelerating on local and foreign pressures Page 5 Lebanese bond yields tighten even as the debt stock swells
More informationLEBANESE ECONOMY ON TRACK FOR A REBOUND IN 2017
N 52 January 2017 Page 3 Inflation returns to the Lebanese economy Page 4 Insurance premiums set to accelerate in 2017 Page 5 Banking activity cooled in October, still ahead in 2016 Page 6 Exports poised
More informationLEBANESE ECONOMY KICKS OFF 2017 ON STRONGER FOOTING
N 53 February 2017 Page 3 Tourist arrivals surge through November, spending lags behind Page 4 New car sales will likely accelerate in 2017 Page 5 Real estate sales hit $8.5bn in 2016 despite headwinds
More informationGROWTH REMAINS SUBDUED DESPITE SOME GAINS IN EARLY 2016
N 44 May 2016 Page 3 More tourists, less money in early 2016 Page 4 Car market shifts into high gear Page 5 Car insurance drove industry growth in Page 6 IMF lowers global, Lebanese growth outlook for
More informationPolitical stalemate weighs on economic activity
N 38 November 2015 Page 3 Lebanon to issue more long-term debt, weighted yields rising Page 4 Resilient consumption buoying Lebanon s car market Page 5 Trade deficit down $2bn through August Page 6 Lebanon
More informationECONOMIC ACTIVITY REBOUNDED TO 5-YEAR HIGH IN 1Q 2016
N 45 June 2016 Page 3 Bank lending accelerates despite slowdown in deposit growth Page 4 Construction activity may be turning the corner Page 5 Fiscal deficit hits record $1.4bn in the first quarter Page
More informationMARKETS RECOUP LOSSES, OUTLOOK HINGES ON POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
N 63 December 2017 Page 3 Financial markets recovering, investor unease remains Page 4 Uncertainty clouds outlook for real estate and construction Page 5 Lebanon closes in on its first oil and gas exploration
More informationCABINET HOPES LIFTED MARKETS IN OCTOBER
N 74 November 2018 Page 3 Tourism activity powers ahead with near-record arrivals Page 4 Higher oil prices offset export gains through August 2018 Page 5 Signs of a new Cabinet bring some relief to financial
More informationLEBANON TO APPEAL FOR $9.8BN AT SYRIA DONORS CONFERENCE
N 41 February 2016 Page 3 Beirut stocks outperformed regional peers in 2015 Page 4 Deposits to face headwinds from low oil prices Page 5 Slowing construction activity points to shrinking new supply Page
More informationUNCERTAIN FISCAL POLICY, ELECTIONS LAW CLOUD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
N 55 April 2017 Page 3 Fiscal deficit at a record $4.9bn in despite stronger revenues Page 4 Private consumption offers significant promise in 2017 Page 5 Real GDP grew by 0.8% in 2015 led by financial
More informationLEBANESE ECONOMY GAINS BACK SOME GROUND IN EARLY 2016
N 43 April 2016 Page 3 Consumption gains momentum into 2016 Page 4 Government revenues floundered in, debt ratings stable Page 5 Real estate kicks off the year with a bang Page 6 Profits at Alpha Group
More informationRISING US RATES, POLITICAL RISK WEIGH ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
N 73 October 2018 Page 3 Government to revive housing subsidies as real estate falters Page 4 Fiscal deficit swelled through April 2018 despite revenue gains Page 5 Non-resident banking activity gains
More informationCONSUMERS UPBEAT AS TOURISTS FLOCK TO LEBANON
N 51 December 2016 Page 3 Lebanese trade flows picked up in the third quarter of 2016 Page 4 Swap operations achieved objectives, BdL says Page 5 Fiscal deficit widens to $2.5bn through August 2016 Page
More informationSmaller trade deficit is biggest impetus for growth in 2015
N 33 June 2015 Page 3 Bank profits may follow interest rates up in 2015 Page 4 More investment in electricity and higher tariffs are urgent, according to the World Bank Page 5 Industrial production and
More informationGOVERNMENT PROMISES FISCAL REFORMS IN 2019 AS GROWTH FLAGS
N 76 January 2019 Page 3 Smaller gains on financial assets weigh on profits of Alpha banks Page 4 Fiscal deficit swelled to $4.5bn by on higher personnel costs Page 5 Moody s affirms Lebanon s B3 ratings,
More informationTHE LEBANESE ECONOMY IN 2016 BYBLOS BANK ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT
THE LEBANESE ECONOMY IN 2016 BYBLOS BANK ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Economic activity in Lebanon remained below potential in 2016, in line with the previous five years.
More informationThe Economic Letter March 2018
ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON Research & Statistics Department The Economic Letter March 2018 Summary: In the first quarter 2018, most real sector indicators retreated with regard to the corresponding
More informationLebanon Weekly Report
ECONOMY World Bank forecasts Lebanon real GDP growth at 2% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016 The World Bank said that Lebanon s economic activity continues to tick along at a modest pace despite the political dysfunctionality.
More informationThe Economic Letter September 2018
ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON Research & Statistics Department The Economic Letter September 2018 Summary: In the first three quarters of 2018, most real sector indicators retreated in relation to the
More informationThe Economic Letter July 2018
ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON Research & Statistics Department The Economic Letter July 2018 Summary: In July 2018, real sector indicators progressed in relation to the preceding month. Both imports
More informationThe Economic Letter May 2018
ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON Research & Statistics Department The Economic Letter May 2018 Summary: In May 2018, real sector indicators were mixed with reference to the preceding month. Imports of goods
More informationThe Economic Letter January 2018
ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON Research & Statistics Department The Economic Letter January 2018 Summary: In the first month of 2018, most real sector indicators retreated in relation to the preceding
More informationTourism and consumption driving economic rebound
N 37 October 2015 Page 3 Foreign markets lift bank profits as domestic activity slows Page 4 Currency and commodity trends favor Lebanese consumers Page 5 Real estate correction underway, prices still
More informationThe Economic Letter December 2010
ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON Research & Statistics Department The Economic Letter December 2010 Summary: Despite the deceleration in the activities of a number of economic sectors in the fourth quarter,
More informationThe Economic Letter November 2018
ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON Research & Statistics Department The Summary: In November 2018, the majority of real sector indicators regressed in relation to the previous month. Imports and exports of
More informationThe Economic Letter December 2016
ASSOCIATION OF BANKS IN LEBANON Research & Statistics Department The Economic Letter December 2016 Summary: In 2016, real sector indicators were mixed and their varied performance pointed to another year
More informationMiddle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook
Regional Economic Outlook Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Lebanon Egypt Syria Iraq Iran Jordan Saudi Kuwait Arabia Bahrain Afghanistan Pakistan Mauritania Sudan Djibouti Qatar Yemen Oman United Arab Emirates
More informationLEBANON WEEKLY REPORT
Total imports decreased by a yearly 5% to reach USD 8,713 million in the first five months of 2014, while total exports dropped by 30% to reach USD 1,387 million. Imports from China accounted for the largest
More informationMENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Risks to the Recovery Persist
MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Risks to the Recovery Persist The growth recovery in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) oil-importing countries is set to continue in 18, lifted
More informationEmirates NBD Research UAE Sector Chart Pack
Emirates NBD Research UAE Sector Chart Pack Thanos Tsetsonis athanasiost@emiratesnbd.com May 218 1 mn b/d USD / b UAE: Downside risks to 218 growth forecast due to lower oil production estimates Highlights
More informationDr. Raja M. Almarzoqi Albqami Institute of Diplomatic Studies
Dr. Raja M. Almarzoqi Albqami Institute of Diplomatic Studies Rmarzoqi@gmail.com 3 nd Meeting of OECD-MENA Senior Budget Officials Network Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 31 October-1 November 2010 Oil Exporters
More informationANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT AJMAN 2015
ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT AJMAN C O N T E N T S Introduction Growth of the Global Economy Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates Macro - Economic Growth in the Emirate of Ajman Gross Domestic Product
More informationLebanon. Market Bulletin Q2.2018
Lebanon Market Bulletin Q2.2018 July 2018 Lebanon Market Bulletin (Q2-2018) Highlights: Lebanon s CPI (Consumer s Price Index) has been increasing since March 2018 to record 106.7, 107, and 107.2 for April,
More informationLebanomics 1st. Mfcbopo t Ebticpbse pg!fdpopnjd Joejdbupst. Quarter of 2011
Lebanomics 1st Quarter of 2011 Mfcbopo t Ebticpbse pg!fdpopnjd Joejdbupst Contacts Head of Research: Nadim Kabbara, CFA n.kabbara@ffaprivatebank.com +961 1 985195 Sales and Trading, FFA Private Bank (Beirut)
More information2nd Quarter of Head of Research: Nadim Kabbara, CFA
2nd Quarter of 2012 Contacts Head of Research: Nadim Kabbara, CFA n.kabbara@ffaprivatebank.com +961 1 985195 Analyst: Laura El Makary l.elmakary@ffaprivatebank.com +961 1 985195 Sales and Trading, FFA
More informationMonthly Economic and Financial Developments April 2006
Release Date: 30 May Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central Bank has decided
More informationAlgeria's GDP growth is expected to stand at 3.5%, inflation at 7.5% for 2018.
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Key Messages: MENA Economic Monitor- April 2018 Economic growth in MENA is projected
More informationMiddle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook. November 12, 2013
Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook November 12, 213 Outline Global Outlook MENAP: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Key Takeaways 2 Global Outlook
More informationMay 30, 2014 ECONOMY. Lebanon ranks 85th among 160 countries on Logistics Performance Index
ECONOMY The LPI is a benchmarking tool developed by the World Bank to measure the efficiency of trade supply chains within a country. Lebanon ranks 85th among 160 countries on Logistics Performance Index
More informationEconomic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014
Economic Outlook: Global and India Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014 Global scenario US expected to drive global growth in 2015 Difference from % YoY Growth October Actual October Projections
More informationMiddle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Oil, Conflicts, and Transitions
Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Oil, Conflicts, and Transitions May 5, 2015 Agenda Global Environment MENAP Oil Exporters MENAP Oil Importers Global growth remains moderate and uneven
More informationMonetary Policy Report
CENTRAL BANK OF THE GAMBIA Monetary Policy Report November 20 The Central Bank of The Gambia Monetary Policy Report provides summary of reports presented at the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting. It entails
More informationEconomic Update 4 July 2017
Economic Update July 17 Macroeconomic outlook UAE: Growth set to moderate slightly in 17 amid crude oil cuts > Dana Al-Fakir Economist +9 9 373, danafakir@nbk.com > Nemr Kanafani Senior Economist +9 9
More informationGCC/ MENA macro outlook. Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research March 2018
GCC/ MENA macro outlook Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research March 18 1 % y/y GCC: Is the worst behind us? Average GCC GDP growth 1 and 17 have been challenging on a number of fronts for the GCC. Lower
More informationContent. Introduction. Part I: The Lebanese Macroeconomy. 1. Gross Domestic Product. 2. Monetary Situation. 3. Banking Sector. 4. Balance of Payments
Content Introduction Part I: The Lebanese Macroeconomy 1. Gross Domestic Product 2. Monetary Situation 3. Banking Sector 4. Balance of Payments 5. Public Finance 6. Financial Markets 7. Foreign Trade 8.
More informationDubai Real Estate Predictions 2016
Real Estate Dubai Real Estate Predictions 2016 Following two years of significant capital and rental growth across much of Dubai s real estate market, 2015 marked a slowdown and a return to more stable
More informationMonthly Economic and Financial Developments February 2007
Release Date: 3 April Monthly Economic and Financial Developments February In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central Bank has
More information4 th Quarter of Head of Research: Nadim Kabbara, CFA
4 th Quarter of 2014 Contacts Head of Research: Nadim Kabbara, CFA n.kabbara@ffaprivatebank.com +961 1 985195 Analyst: Rima Gedeon r.gedeon@ffaprivatebank.com +961 1 985195 Sales and Trading, FFA Private
More informationNigeria Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014
Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group September 21 Nigeria Overview A rebasing of GDP in 213 has made Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa with the largest population; the economy is growing rapidly but remains
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND THE US LODGING INDUSTRY. Aran Ryan Director Tourism
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND THE US LODGING INDUSTRY Aran Ryan Director aran.ryan@tourismeconomics.com @AranRyan1 March 22, 2017 Some historical perspective Room demand expansion continues Pace of demand growth
More informationLEBANON WEEKLY REPORT
Lebanon s major entrepreneurship weakness is in product innovation, being the ability to provide unique products or services. The country s greatest strength in entrepreneurship is found in its perception
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 30 March 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economic growth kicks higher at start of fourth quarter but outlook darkens. November 14 th 2016
Global PMI Global economic growth kicks higher at start of fourth quarter but outlook darkens November 14 th 2016 2 Global PMI at 11-month high in October Global economic growth kicked higher at the start
More informationJORDAN ECONOMIC MONITOR
JORDAN ECONOMIC MONITOR DISCLAIMER: The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Capital Investments makes no warranty
More informationReport - Lebanon s Economic Performance in H1 2011
Report - Lebanon s Economic Performance in H1 2011 Executive Summary 2 General Introduction 3 Real Sector 3 Public Finances 7 Monetary Situation 8 Financial Sector 9 Foreign Sector 10 Economic Prospects
More informationThe LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR
CONTACTS The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR Treasury & Capital Markets Bechara Serhal (961-1) 977421 bechara.serhal@bankaudi.com.lb Nadine Akkawi (961-1) 977401 nadine.akkawi@bankaudi.com.lb Private Banking Toufic
More informationSwitzerland Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014
Switzerland Economic Update QNB Group September 14 Switzerland Overview Switzerland s efficient capital markets, highly skilled human capital and low corporate tax rates make it the world's most competitive
More informationFrance Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014
France Economic Update QNB Group September 2014 France Overview France is the ninth largest economy in the world on a purchasing power parity basis and service-oriented; high indebtedness and lack of reforms
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2016
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2016 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. October 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT October 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationeregionaloutlooksincharts
eregionaloutlooksincharts (clickonregion) EastAsiaandPaci c EuropeandCentralAsia LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean MiddleEastandNorthAfrica SouthAsia Sub-SaharanAfrica The Economic Outlook for East Asia and
More informationIndustry anticipating 1.8 percent rise in GDP. Global upturn is the main factor
QUARTERLY REPORT GERMANY Industry anticipating 1.8 percent rise in GDP. Global upturn is the main factor Quarter III / 2017 The German economy is picking up speed considerably. We are expecting real economic
More informationKBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016
KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor and BoT Forecast : March 2016 Thailand s economy steadied in February, though domestic demand decelerated slightly from January
More informationSpanish economic outlook. June 2017
Spanish economic outlook June 2017 1 2 3 Spanish economy a pleasant surprise Growth drivers Forecasts once again bright One of the most dynamic economies in Europe Spain growing at a faster rate than EMU
More informationMonthly Economic Insight
Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.
More informationCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION NOVEMBER 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA NOVEMBER 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationHKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast
Press Release HKU announces 2015 Q2 HK Macroeconomic Forecast April 9, 2015 1 Overview The APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong
More informationMarket Update. 14 May 2015 BANK MUSCAT ASSET MANAGEMENT
Market Update 14 May 2015 BANK MUSCAT ASSET MANAGEMENT GCC Equity Markets Most of the regional markets have witnessed negative performance so far this month, except Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain up 2.9%, 0.6%,
More informationSaudi Chartbook. Summary. December 2014
December 1 Saudi Chartbook Summary Real Economy: Economic data for October showed signs of cooling. The non-oil PMI fell following a 39-month peak in the previous month. Data on consumer spending showed
More informationLEBANON WEEKLY REPORT
ECONOMY Beirut recorded the 3 rd lowest occupancy rate among Arab markets. The average room rate in Beirut hotels was USD 169 in 2013, down from USD 201 in 2012. OCCUPANCY RATE AT BEIRUT HOTELS REACHES
More informationMonthly Economic and Financial Developments January 2013
Release Date: 8 March 2013 Monthly Economic and Financial Developments January 2013 In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central
More informationIntroduction to KUWAIT
Introduction to KUWAIT Kuwait is the world s 10th largest producer of oil. Total oil production, which is equivalent to half the country s GDP, was estimated at 2.9 million barrels per day in 2016. Oil
More informationIntroduction to SAUDI ARABIA
Introduction to SAUDI ARABIA Saudi Arabia is the world s largest oil producer and exporter with almost one-fifth of the word s proven oil reserves. Benefiting from abundant and cheap energy, the industrial
More informationHong Kong Economy: Recovering from Recession?
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com September 29 Hong Kong Economy: Recovering from Recession? Hong Kong staged a strong rebound in the second
More informationRussia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
More informationMonthly Economic and Financial Developments December 2008
Release Date: 02 February 2009 Monthly Economic and Financial Developments December 2008 In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationUpside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com July 28 Upside Risk to Inflation and Downside Risk to Growth The economic landscape has changed significantly
More informationTHE WEEKLY ISSUE 19 7 TH MAY 2018 INCLUSIVE GROWTH AND JOB CREATION CONFERENCE IN THIS ISSUE
INCLUSIVE GROWTH AND JOB CREATION CONFERENCE The Central Egypt (CBE), Egypt s Finance Ministry and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) organized the Inclusive Growth and Job Creation Conference in Cairo
More informationLEBANON THIS WEEK. Charts of the Week. Quote to Note. Number of the Week. Economic Research & Analysis Department. In This Issue
Issue 564 Economic Research & Analysis Department In This Issue Charts of the Week Economic Indicators...1 Capital Markets...1 Lebanon in the News...2 Personal Debt per Adult in Arab Countries at end-june
More informationGrowth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy
Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy 1. Growth and Inflation Prospects and Monetary Policy The Thai economy expanded by slightly less than the previous projection due to weaker-than-anticipated
More informationRECOVERY CONTINUES FOR LOGISTICS REAL ESTATE
RECOVERY CONTINUES FOR LOGISTICS REAL ESTATE World events trigger soft patch The global economic soft patch in the first half of 2011 was primarily caused by the cost of oil reaching $114 per barrel, rising
More informationUkraine Macroeconomic Situation
In 2012, industrial production was down by 1.8% yoy as weakening global demand for steel exerted a toll on the Ukrainian metallurgical industry. Last year, harvested 46.2 tons of grains and overseas shipments
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2017
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2017 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. April 2018
SACU INFLATION REPORT April 2018 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall not
More informationThe President s Report to the Board of Directors
The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth
More informationSaudi Arabian Economy
Saudi Arabian Economy Economic Research Research Department ARC ResearchTeam, Tel. +966 1 211 9370, devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com IMF hikes Saudi Arabia s 2018 growth forecast The IMF raised Saudi Arabia
More informationWorld Economic Situation and Prospects asdf
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 asdf United Nations New York, 2019 Western Asia 148 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 GDP Growth 4.0% 3.1 2.5 total 3.4 3.0 2.4 1.7 2.0% 1.1 1.1 0.6
More informationBanking industry 2016: an analysis of activity performance, risk profile and return indicators
By Dr. Marwan S. Barakat In view of their considerable openness to foreign markets with 18 banks present in 32 countries managing total assets of US$ 37 billion, Lebanese banks are impacted by global considerations
More informationHong Kong Economic Update
Irina Fan Senior Economist irinafan@hangseng.com Joanne Yim Chief Economist joanneyim@hangseng.com May 28 Hong Kong Economic Update Hong Kong s March export growth stayed low at 7.6 yoy, as exports to
More informationSaudi Economy: still shining
Saudi Economy: still shining - - - For comments and queries please contact the author: Fahad Alturki Senior Economist falturki@jadwa.com Real GDP growth 199 1 F Saudi Arabia World Advanced economies Head
More informationCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION JUNE 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA JUNE 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS ON
More informationSaudi Chartbook. Summary. November Real Economy: Economic data for September showed a downward trend in economic activity.
Saudi Chartbook Summary Real Economy: Economic data for September showed a downward trend in economic activity. Government Finance: The net monthly change in government accounts with SAMA remained negative
More informationZenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
More informationThe LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR
CONTACTS The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR Treasury & Capital Markets Bechara Serhal (961-1) 977421 bechara.serhal@bankaudi.com.lb Nadine Akkawi (961-1) 977401 nadine.akkawi@bankaudi.com.lb Private Banking Toufic
More informationUAE: Update November 2015
Report Series UAE: Update Executive Summary Economics Department Samba Financial Group P.O. Box 833, Riyadh 11241 Saudi Arabia ChiefEconomist@samba.com +44 207659-8200 (London) This and other publications
More informationLebanon Weekly Report
Lebanon ranks 98 th most prosperous country in the world The Legatum Prosperity Index defines prosperity as a combination of wealth and wellbeing, benchmarking 142 countries in eight categories. In the
More informationSaudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014
Research Department Md. Rahmatullah Khan, Economic analyst Tel: +966 1 211 9319, khanmr@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi Arabian economy Saudi Arabian economy Moderation in 2013 and rebound in 2014 Saudi Arabian
More information