Market Returns During Election Years Wilshire Blvd Suite 1250 Los Angeles, California
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1 Market Returns During Election Years Wilshire Blvd Suite 1250 Los Angeles, California
2 Market Returns and Election Years It is difficult to identify systematic return patterns in elections years. On average, market returns have been positive both in election years and the subsequent year. Market expectations associated with election outcomes are embedded in security prices. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Sources: The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group; MSCI data copyright MSCI 2016, all rights reserved; Bloomberg Barclays Capital data provided by Bloomberg. 2
3 Returns During and After Election Years S&P 500 Index: Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 9.3% Average Return During Election Year = 11.2% 2012: Obama vs. Romney 2008: Obama vs. McCain 2004: Bush vs. Kerry 2000: Bush vs. Gore 1996: Clinton vs. Dole 1992: Clinton vs. Bush 1988: Bush vs. Dukakis 1984: Reagan vs. Mondale 1980: Reagan vs. Carter 1976: Carter vs. Ford 1972: Nixon vs. McGovern 1968: Nixon vs. Humphrey 1964: Johnson vs. Goldwater 1960: Kennedy vs. Nixon 1956: Eisenhower vs. Stevenson 1952: Eisenhower vs. Stevenson 1948: Truman vs. Dewey 1944: Roosevelt vs. Dewey 1940: Roosevelt vs. Willkie 1936: Roosevelt vs. Landon 1932: Roosevelt vs. Hoover 1928: Hoover vs. Smith representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. 3
4 Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms S&P 500 Index: Average Return for Presidential Terms = 10.1% : Obama : Obama : Bush : Bush : Clinton : Clinton : Bush : Reagan : Reagan : Carter : Nixon : Nixon : Johnson : Kennedy :Eisenhower : Eisenhower : Truman : Roosevelt : Roosevelt : Roosevelt : Roosevelt : Hoover representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. 4
5 Returns During and After Election Years MSCI EAFE Index: Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 13.5% Average Return During Election Year = 6.5% 2012: Obama vs. Romney 2008: Obama vs. McCain 2004: Bush vs. Kerry 2000: Bush vs. Gore 1996: Clinton vs. Dole 1992: Clinton vs. Bush 1988: Bush vs. Dukakis 1984: Reagan vs. Mondale 1980: Reagan vs. Carter 1976: Carter vs. Ford 1972: Nixon vs. McGovern representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data copyright of MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. 5
6 Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms MSCI EAFE Index: Average Return for Presidential Terms = 8.9% 2013 Sept. 2015: Obama : Obama : Bush : Bush : Clinton : Clinton : Bush : Reagan : Reagan : Carter : Nixon representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data copyright of MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. 6
7 Returns During and After Election Years MSCI Emerging Markets Index 1 : Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 33.9% Average Return During Election Year = 2.7% 2012: Obama vs. Romney 2008: Obama vs. McCain 2004: Bush vs. Kerry 2000: Bush vs. Gore 1996: Clinton vs. Dole 1992: Clinton vs. Bush 1988: Bush vs. Dukakis 1. Gross dividends. representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data copyright of MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. 7
8 Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms MSCI Emerging Markets Index 1 : Average Return for Presidential Terms = 9.6% : Obama : Obama : Bush : Bush : Clinton : Clinton : Bush 1. Gross dividends. representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data copyright of MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. 8
9 Returns During and After Election Years Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index: Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 8.0% Average Return During Election Year = 7.8% 2012: Obama vs. Romney 2008: Obama vs. McCain 2004: Bush vs. Kerry 2000: Bush vs. Gore 1996: Clinton vs. Dole 1992: Clinton vs. Bush 1988: Bush vs. Dukakis 1984: Reagan vs. Mondale 1980: Reagan vs. Carter 1976: Carter vs. Ford representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: Bloomberg Barclays Capital data provided by Bloomberg. 9
10 Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index: Average Return for Presidential Terms = 7.4% : Obama : Obama : Bush : Bush : Clinton : Clinton : Bush : Reagan : Reagan : Carter representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: Bloomberg Barclays Capital data provided by Bloomberg. 10
11 Presidential Elections and S&P 500 Returns Histogram of Monthly Returns: January 1926 June 2016 Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group. 11
12 Markets Have Rewarded Long-Term Investors under a Variety of Presidents Growth of a Dollar Invested in the S&P 500: January 1926 June 2016 Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group. 12
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Siena Research Institute - 10/19/08-10/21/08 721 completes +/- 3.6% 1. Is New York State on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? Other M F Right track 39% 44% 32% 34% 38% 40% 46% 44%