Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models
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1 Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models May, Dr. Edward Yardeni Joe Abbott Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Forward P/E Ratios 1-9 Trailing P/E Ratios P/E Ratios 11- Growth vs Value 13 Fed s Stock Valuation Model - Equity Risk Premium Rules of 17-1 Valuation Models 19- S&P Index & Forward Earnings S&P LTEG vs. Corporate Bond Yield 23- S&P Forward P/E and P/S Ratios 2 May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
3 Forward P/E Ratios Figure 1. FORWARD P/E RATIO FOR S&P * (monthly) Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Apr Average = * Average weekly price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share Figure 2. FORWARD PE RATIO FOR S&P vs. MISERY INDEX Misery Index* S&P Forward P/E** Apr Mar 7 * Yearly percent change in core personal consumption expenditures deflator plus unemployment rate. ** Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
4 32 2 Figure 3. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES* (weekly) Forward P/E Ratios 32 2 S&P LargeCap (17.) / S&P 4 MidCap (1.) / S&P SmallCap (19.1) / * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Horizontal lines drawn at 4 peaks. Page 2 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
5 Forward P/E Ratios 1 Figure 4. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES* (daily, nsa) / 1 S&P LargeCap (17.) S&P 4 MidCap (1.) / S&P SmallCap (19.3) / * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Page 3 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
6 2 2 Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES* (weekly) Forward P/E Ratios / 1 S&P LargeCap (17.) S&P 4 MidCap (1.) S&P SmallCap (19.1) * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P /4/ INDEXES* (daily) / 1 1 S&P LargeCap (17.) S&P 4 MidCap (1.) S&P SmallCap (19.3) * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Page 4 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
7 22 Figure 7. FORWARD P/E RATIO FOR S&P (MEDIAN) Forward P/E Ratios 22 1 Apr 1 S&P Median Forward P/E (17.) Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P (ACTUAL & MEDIAN) 2 2 Apr S&P Forward P/E Ratio* (.) S&P Median Forward P/E (17.) * Average weekly price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
8 2 Figure 9. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR RUSSELL * (weekly) Forward P/E Ratios Russell (17.2) Russell Growth (1.) Russell Value (.) 2 / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. 3 Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR RUSSELL * (weekly) Russell (.) Russell Growth (31.1) Russell Value (.4) 3 2 / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December and weekly thereafter. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
9 2 Figure 11. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR RUSSELL * Forward P/E Ratios Russell (17.) Russell Growth (19.1) Russell Value (.2) 2 / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. 3 Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR RUSSELL MIDCAP* P/E capped at due to extreme values. Russell MidCap (19.) Russell MidCap Growth (21.) Russell MidCap Value (17.) / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Page 7 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
10 2 Figure 13. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR US LARGECAP * Forward P/E Ratios P/E capped at 3 due to extreme values. Russell (17.2) S&P (17.) 2 / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. 2 Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR US MIDCAP * 2 Russell MidCap (19.) S&P 4 MidCap (1.) / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
11 3 Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR US SMALLCAP * Forward P/E Ratios P/E capped at 3 due to extreme values. Russell (.) S&P SmallCap (19.1) 3 2 / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Page 9 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
12 Figure. Trailing P/E Ratios TRAILING P/E RATIO FOR S&P (USING REPORTED EARNINGS)* Capped at 4 due to extreme values 4 4 Q * Using 4-quarter trailing reported earnings. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 32 Figure 17. TRAILING P/E RATIO FOR S&P (USING OPERATING EARNINGS)* Q * Using 4-quarter trailing operating earnings. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
13 Figure 1. P/E Ratios US EQUITY MARKET CAPITALIZATION: NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS (as a ratio of NFC after-tax profits from current production*) 4 4 Q * Including IVA and CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: Haver Analytics. 4 Figure 19. US EQUITY MARKET CAPITALIZATION EXCLUDING FOREIGN ISSUES 4 3 As a ratio of: After-Tax Profits from Current Production* (Avg = 13.) Corporate Cash Flow** (Avg = 9.1) Q4 Q * Including IVA and CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. ** After-tax operating retained earnings plus tax-return-based depreciation. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts, and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 11 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
14 Figure. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P * P/E Ratios S&P (.7) S&P Technology (.) / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Figure 21. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P * 2 2 S&P S&P Ex Technology / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
15 4 Figure 22. Growth vs Value FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE Growth (1.2) Value (.4) / * Using consensus -month forward earnings forecasts Figure 23. PEG RATIOS FOR S&P CITIGROUP GROWTH vs. VALUE* Growth (1.42) Value (2.) / * Using -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Page 13 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
16 Figure. Fed s Stock Valuation Model S&P FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & NOMINAL BOND YIELD Forward Earnings Yield* -Year US Treasury Bond Yield / / * -month forward consensus expected earnings divided by S&P Index. Monthly through April 1994, weekly after. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Figure 2. STOCK VALUATION MODEL (SVM-1) (ratio scale) / S&P Price Index 7 7 Fair-Value Price* / * -month forward consensus expected earnings divided by -year US Treasury bond yield. Monthly through April 1994, weekly after. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
17 Figure 2. FED S STOCK VALUATION MODEL (SVM-1) (weekly, percent) Fed s Stock Valuation Model 4 Overvalued Undervalued / * Ratio of S&P Index to its fair value (2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share divided by the -year US Treasury bond yield). Monthly through April 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 7 7 Figure 27. FORWARD P/E & BOND YIELD (SVM-1) (weekly) Ratio Of S&P Price To Expected Earnings* / Bond s P/E=Reciprocal Of -Year US Treasury Bond Yield / * 2-week forward consensus expected S&P operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
18 1 Figure 2. S&P EARNINGS YIELD & REAL BOND YIELD Equity Risk Premium -year US Treasury Bond Yield Minus Average Expected CPI Inflation Rate For Next Years (Phili Fed Survey)* S&P Expected Earnings To Price Ratio** -Year TIPS Yield*** (weekly) 1 Apr / 2-2 * Data from 1979 to 1991 quarterly, monthly thereafter. ** Earnings-price ratio is based on the Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus estimates of earnings over the coming months. *** Yields on Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) adjused to constant maturities. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, US Treasury, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Figure 29. S&P EARNINGS YIELD MINUS REAL BOND YIELD* Q * S&P forward expected earnings to price ratio minus -year Treasury bond yield minus average expected CPI inflation rate for next years (Phili Fed Survey). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, US Treasury, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
19 Figure. Rules of S&P FORWARD P/E & RULE OF P/E BASED ON CPI INFLATION RATE (monthly) 2 S&P Forward P/E* (17.1) minus CPI Inflation Rate (yearly percent change) (.1) 2 Mar Apr * P/E = price-to-earnings ratio using mid-month price and -month forward consensus earnings expectations. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 31. S&P FORWARD P/E & RULE OF P/E BASED ON CPI INFLATION RATE minus Consumer Price Index (yearly percent change) Minus S&P P/E 4 2 Mar * P/E = price-to-earnings ratio using mid-month price and -month forward consensus earnings expectations. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 17 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
20 2 2 Figure 32. Rules of S&P FORWARD P/E & P/E BASED ON RULE OF USING -YEAR TREASURY YIELD (weekly) / / 1 S&P Forward P/E* (17.) minus Ten-Year Treasury Yield (17.) * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Federal Reserve Board. 2 Figure 33. S&P ACTUAL & THEORETICAL USING FORWARD EARNINGS & RULE OF P/E BASED ON BOND YIELD S&P Forward Earnings Times minus -Year Treasury Yield (22.) S&P Index (22.7) / / Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Federal Reserve Board. 4 Page 1 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
21 2 Figure 34. S&P INDEX Valuation Models 2 P/E* (17.1) LTEG** (.4) Apr PEG*** (1.) Apr * P/E = price-to-earnings ratio using mid-month price and -month forward consensus earnings expectations. ** LTEG = consensus median -year expected earnings growth. *** PEG = P/E divided by LTEG. 2. Figure 3. TOBIN S Q FOR NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS* (ratio) Actual Q (1.) Adjusted Q** (1.4) Q Q * Ratio of market value of equities to net worth at market value, which includes real estate (including structures) at market value and equipment, software, and inventories at replacement cost. ** Actual divided by average since 192. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Page 19 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
22 2. Figure 3. STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION RATIOS Valuation Models US Equity Market Capitalization Ex Foreign Issues (as a ratio of nominal GDP) (1.9) 2. S&P Market Cap (as a ratio of S&P Revenues) (1.7) Q Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and Standard & Poor s Corporation.. 2. Figure 37. STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION RATIOS US Equity Market Capitalization Ex Foreign Issues (as a ratio of nominal GDP) (1.9) Q S&P Market Cap (as a ratio of S&P Revenues) (1.7) Q Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
23 Figure 3. S&P Index & Forward Earnings S&P COMPOSITE vs. S&P BOTTOM UP FORWARD OPERATING EARNINGS EPS (weekly data Indexed to week of March 9, 9) S&P Index Forward Earnings Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. /13 / Figure 39. S&P COMPOSITE vs. S&P BOTTOM UP FORWARD OPERATING EARNINGS EPS (indexed to Sept 197) S&P Index Forward Earnings Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Apr Apr Page 21 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
24 S&P Index & Forward Earnings Figure 4. S&P COMPOSITE vs. S&P BOTTOM UP FORWARD OPERATING EARNINGS EPS (weekly data Indexed to month end March 1994) /13 4 S&P Index Forward Earnings / Page 22 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
25 Figure 41. S&P LTEG vs. Corporate Bond Yield S&P FORWARD P/E 2 S&P Forward P/E (.7) S&P LTEG* minus Moody s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield x 2 (.7) 2 / * LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Federal Reserve Board. 1 Figure 42. S&P LTEG & CORPORATE BOND YIELD (percent) 1 S&P LTEG* (.3) Moody s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield (3.9) / / 4 2 * LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Federal Reserve Board. Page 23 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
26 S&P LTEG vs. Corporate Bond Yield Figure 43. S&P FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD S&P Forward Earnings Yield* (.9) Moody s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield (3.9) / / * Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P index. Monthly through April 1994, weekly after. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
27 S&P Forward P/E and P/S Ratios Figure 44. S&P VALUATION Forward P/E* (.74) /7 1. Forward P/S** (1.79) / * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Price divided by -month forward consensus expected sales per share. Figure 4. S&P VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (17.) 2 / * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Page 2 / May, / Market Briefing: Stock Market Valuation Metrics & Models www.
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