for Janaf Conference Eugene Lindell, JBC Energy

Transcription

1 Special Presentation New/old views on crude oil and petroleum products storage and trading in the Med market for Janaf Conference Eugene Lindell, JBC Energy 22 November 2016

2 Disclaimer All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things statements expressing JBC Energy s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, objectives, outlook, probably, project, will, forecast, predict, think, seek, target, risks, goals, should and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation. JBC s third party sources provide data to JBC on an as-is basis and accept no responsibility and disclaim any liability relating to reliance on or use of their data by any party. Data sourced as SuDeP (JBC s in-house Supply-Demand-Price forecasting model) or JBC Derived Data may be partly based on EIA and various national statistical entities; JODI; the MODS, ADS or MGDS ( services developed by the IEA, OECD/IEA 2016; OPEC; and other industry sources, but the resulting work has been prepared by JBC Energy and does not necessarily reflect the views of the original data providers. To the extent that JBC Energy comments or opines on data obtained from third party sources, these comments or opinions shall be understood as JBC Energy s own comments or opinions unless a third party is quoted as their source. Tuesday, 22 November Slide 2

3 Products & Services Analytics 19 Market Publications Oil, Natural Gas & Alternatives Global Focus Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly & Bi-Annually Modelling In-House Supply, Demand, Pricing (SuDeP) Model Data by Country, by Region, by Sector Bottom Up Approach Standardised or Customised Modules Energy Consulting Audits Benchmarking Documentation Optimization Pricing Processes Risk Management Strategy Studies Client Initiated Expert Led Fundamental Driven Commercially Focused Powered by SuDeP & JBC s Extensive Databases Training Services Oil Market Fundamentals Pricing & Risk Management Oil Trading Public Courses & Single Client Options Tuesday, 22 November Slide 3

4 Introduction and Key Points Challenging Years: The market from 2010 to 2014 Squeeze in medium-sour crude supplies Libyan outage shakes up light-sweet market, but WAF to the rescue Refiners compete against Russia, the Middle East and USGC Rise of a Buyers market: The market in 2015 and 2016 Medium-sour oversupply (Iraqi growth then return of Iran) Light-sweet supplies shake-up Improved refining prospects Oh crystal ball - a look at 2017: 2016 trends to continue Mediterranean as evolving crude hub Midstream prospects look good given continued contango A whole lot of arb Refiners to profit from buyers crude market Tuesday, 22 November Slide 4

5 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Tuesday, 22 November

6 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Change in Crude Supplies to Europe: 2015 vs 2010 [million b/d] Latin America West Africa Saudi Arabia Iraq North Sea Syria Iran Russia 0.00 Source: IEA, JBC Energy More Supplied 1 to Europe Less Supplied 1 to Europe The European crude slate has changed radically over the past five years Tuesday, 22 November Slide 6

7 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Key Reductions in Mediterranean Baseload Crude Imports [million b/d] Syria Iraqi Kirkuk Availability Libya Iran Russia (Urals Med) Of which medium or heavy-sour Mediterranean baseload crudes were squeezed in the period from 2010 to 2015 Missing volumes were replaced mainly with crude from WAF, LatAm, and Iraqi Basrah Low Point Source: JBC Energy based on IEA data from Monthly Oil Data Service OECD/IEA 2016, License: Reuters, Iraqi Ministry, KRG 0 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 In the Mediterranean, medium-sour crude availability turned tight due to lower volumes from Iran, Syria and Russia. Frequent outages and a spat between Baghdad and the KRG also made Kirkuk barrels less attractive was the low point. Tuesday, 22 November Slide 7

8 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market 4,400 European Med - Crude Intake ['000 b/d] 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3, Year Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The 2014 low point in availability of medium-sour feedstock worsened margins, leading to lower intake in that year. Since then, things have improved markedly! Tuesday, 22 November Slide 8

9 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Expected Arrivals of Iranian Crude into EU countries ['000 b/d] Hungary Portugal EU'2011 Poland ARA (NL, BE) Italy Romania Greece Spain France IEA MODS Nov-Dec data preliminary EU sanctions lifted mid- January; first cargoes shipped mid-feb for March arrival Source: JBC Estimate based on McQuilling, Platts, Reuters, IEA OECD/IEA 2015 ADS, IEA Publishing. Licence: SuDeP 2011 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Iran sanctions were lifted this year, while Iran and Saudi Arabia are seeking to maintain current volumes Tuesday, 22 November Slide 9

10 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market CPC Blend BTC Blend Caspian Crude Exports ['000 b/d] December 2016 loadings are preliminary Source: Argus, Platts, Reuters 0 Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Apr '15 Jul '15 Oct '15 Jan '16 Apr '16 Jul '16 Oct '16 Caspian crude availability is reaching new highs. Moreover, Increases are structural due to start up of Lukoil s Filanovsky and the Kashagan restart (current K-output around 100 kb/d; operator plans to boost production next year to around 350 kb/d) Tuesday, 22 November Slide 10

11 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market 8,500 FSU EAST - Crude Balance ['000 b/d] 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 Source: JBC derived data 5-Year Range 5-Year Avg ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Russian declines to the West have also reversed. In fact, FSU East Crude balance set to surge and ENTIRE excess seen getting exported via the Black Sea and Baltics Tuesday, 22 November Slide 11

12 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Transneft's ESPO Trunk Crude Pipeline System: Export Infrastructure to the East to Samara KAZAKHSTAN Source: Transneft, various industry sources to Perm Zapolyarye-Purpe Pipeline Purpe Omsk refinery Pavlodar refinery Atasu Tomsk CHINA Achinsk refinerery Vankor-Purpe Pipeline Alashankou Kuyumba-Taishet Pipeline This is because Eastern infrastructure has hit a bottleneck with anti-drag agents already being used to boost ESPO pipeline flows. As demand in Daqing area stable, a real easing of the bottleneck can only be expected in 2020 Tuesday, 22 November Slide 12 Taishet ESPO-1 expansion from 1.16 million b/d to 1.6 million b/d by 2020 Current capacity at 400,000 b/d (Russia) and 300,000 b/d (China); scheduled expansion to 600,000 b/d by late 2017 Skovorodino Mohe ESPO-2 expansion from 600,000 b/d to 1 million b/d by 2020 Daqing refinery CHINA Khabarovsk refinery Komsomolsk spur 160,000 b/d in 2018 Komsomolsk refinery Kozmino Kozmino port capacity expansion from 600,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d by late 2017

13 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Monthly Additions of New Crude Streams (excl. Middle East & US Shale - 3MMA) ['000 b/d] Canada oil sands US GoM Russia Asia North Sea Brazil WAF Kashagan Source: JBC Energy Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Further near-abroad supply also coming from WAF and Brazil (North Sea gains required to offset high decline rates) Tuesday, 22 November Slide 13

14 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Y-o-y Changes to U.S. Crude Oil Imports & Production ['000 b/d] Canada & Mexico Central & South America Europe Africa Asia Middle East FSU East U.S. Crude Production y-o-y Source: EIA, JBC Energy calculations Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 The shale link: a surprise rebound in US shale would free up more WAF crude for Europe and Asia in a repeat of the trend seen in Tuesday, 22 November Slide 14

15 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Exported Share of Domestic Crude Production ['000 b/d] 70% Mexico Brazil 60% Y-o-y Change in Mexican Crude Exports ['000 b/d] Europe Far East Other Americas US 50% % % 0 20% % -200 Source: SIE, ANP 0% Jan '13 Jan '14 Jan '15 Jan '16 3-month moving average -300 Jan '14 Jan '15 Jan '16 Availability of Latin American crude is also high, while less is going into the US Tuesday, 22 November Slide 15

16 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Arab Light OSP Adjustment (FOB Ras Tanura) vs. ICE BWAVE in the Med [$/bbl] Discounts have been widening in spite of low flat prices Source: Saudi Aramco Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec High crude availability has given rise to a buyers market and hence deeply discounted crude Tuesday, 22 November Slide 16

17 Some Reasons for Optimism in Downstream 1.05 Ratio of Crude vs Brent Benchmark [ratio] Urals Med vs Dated Brent Arab Light (Med) vs ICE BWAVE 0.80 Basrah Light vs Dated Brent Mars vs Dated Brent The value of heavier crudes has Saharan Blend vs Dated Brent clearly declined since the Nov'14 Source: JBC calculations based onplatts and ICE data shift in OPEC policy 0.75 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Heavier crudes have become much cheaper relative to Dated Brent over the past two years (ratio analysis used here to account for flat price fluctuation). Light-sweet Saharan Blend has seen no such depreciation. Refiners profit from flexible crude procurement! Tuesday, 22 November Slide 17

18 The Rise of a Buyers Crude Market Spread Rotterdam Refining Margins (10-day Avg) [$/bbl] Rotterdam benchmark-based (Brent) Rotterdam 33 API basket, average setup Source: JBC Energy (metholodogy & calculations), Haverly, McQuilling, Platts Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 This has helped boost refining margins in the past two years margins are still pretty solid, especially when considering actual crude baskets rather than benchmarks (discounts in terms grades, deep Urals diffs, supply competition focussing generally on Europe). Tuesday, 22 November Slide 18

19 2017 Outlook Tuesday, 22 November

20 2017 Outlook OPEC Output, Call on OPEC [million b/d] Targeted production range Output assessment range* Call on OPEC - OPEC Call on OPEC - IEA Call on OPEC - JBC Energy OPEC output - JBC Energy Source: JBC Energy, OPEC, based on IEA data from Monthly Oil Data Service OECD/IEA 2016, Licence: as modified by JBC Energy *includes assessments from IEA, EIA, OPEC secondary sources and OPEC direct communication 27 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 OPEC path difficult. Plenty of questions surround exemptions, compliance, distribution and measurement of any potential freeze/cut. However, the willingness to do something is clearly there. Tuesday, 22 November Slide 20

21 2017 Outlook Market Structures: Physical and Future Brent [$/bbl] ICE Brent 1st vs 3rd Dtd Brent vs 3rd Mth Brent 1. Spread between physical and futures wide in 2016 (reflects different market interpretations) 2. Given physical balances, contango expected to remain throughout Source: Platts, ICE Jan '14 Apr '14 Jul '14 Oct '14 Jan '15 Apr '15 Jul '15 Oct '15 Jan '16 Apr '16 Jul '16 Oct '16 Current spread between physical and future crude very wide. Expected to narrow on OPEC decision, one way or the other. But oversupply so large that contango expected to remain in place throughout 2017 Tuesday, 22 November Slide 21

22 2017 Outlook Global Global Stocks Stocks Surplus Surplus to to Q1 Q3 14, to13 Q1 Main by 2014 Stream Products [million [million barrels] barrels] Other Products Fuel Oil Gasoil/Diesel Jet/Kero Gasoline Naphtha LPG NGL and Other Feedstocks Crude Oil Stocks Crude Oil Stocks, China Crude Oil Stocks, US Crude stocks have built by 310 million barrels, products by 120 million barrels (middle distillates by 75 million barrels) Crude stocks have built by million barrels, products by 120 million barrels (middle distillates -400 Source: JBC Derived Data by 45 million barrels) Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 In fact, global storage has increased by around 1 billion barrels in the past 3 years, but a good 500 million barrels of this is crude in China. Tuesday, 22 November Slide 22

23 2017 Outlook 4,000 WORLD - Crude Balance ['000 b/d] 5-Year Range 5-Year Avg ,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000 Source: JBC derived data -3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Our crude and condensate balance shows significant surpluses over January to August 2017 clearly outpacing 2015 and 2016 observations due to the new supply streams. This should keep a lid on any upside to prices. Tuesday, 22 November Slide 23

24 2017 Outlook JBC Energy IEA OPEC EIA Implied Global Stockbuild/draw [million b/d] Source: JBC Energy, IEA, EIA, OPEC Our JBC implied stockbuild is the difference between JBC assessments of global feedstocks supply and final product demand, using a country-by-country and stream-by-stream approach. JBC Energy OPEC production estimates are used for IEA and OPEC figures as of Q Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q3 17 Q1 18 Q3 18 In other words, the market is set to move from a temporary rebalancing in 2016 to sizable surpluses again in 2017, especially from the crude side, which should pressure oil prices to a certain extent. Tuesday, 22 November Slide 24

25 2017 Outlook 3000 East of Suez vs West of Suez Crude & Condensate Balances ['000 b/d] East vs West We expect the east of Suez balance to be tighter East of Suez Balance throughout 2017 Source: JBC Derived Data West of Suez Balance Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 For the Mediterranean and European markets, lengthening balances in West of Suez clearly indicate more of the same in 2017 as in 2016 and we should see even more arbitrage from the Atlantic Basin to Asia. Tuesday, 22 November Slide 25

26 2017 Outlook Brent/Dubai EFS Inter-regional Crude Differentials [$/bbl] Dated Brent vs LLS M-2 (London) Weak Brent to support arbitrage prospects for Brent-related grades Source: Platts, PVM, ICE, JBC Energy estimate Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Consequently we expect inter-regional arb spreads to facilitate increased flows out of the oversupplied region Tuesday, 22 November Slide 26

27 Thank you!