Supply Trends ÖGEW / DGMK

Transcription

1 Special Presentation Supply Trends ÖGEW / DGMK GROUP JBC, Johannes Benigni 17 October 2014

2 Disclaimer GROUP All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forwardlooking statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things statements expressing JBC Energy s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, objectives, outlook, probably, project, will, forecast, predict, think, seek, target, risks, goals, should and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation. JBC s third party sources provide data to JBC on an as-is basis and accept no responsibility and disclaim any liability relating to reliance on or use of their databyanyparty. Tuesday, 21 October Slide 2

3 JBC Products & Services Research & Analysis 19 Market Publications Oil, Natural Gas & Alternatives Global Focus Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly & Bi-Annually Client Studies Client Initiated Expert Led Fundamental Driven Commercially Focused Powered by SuDeP & JBC s Extensive Databases Energy Consulting Audits Benchmarking Documentation Optimization Pricing Processes Risk Management Strategy Training Services Oil Market Fundamentals Pricing & Risk Management Oil Trading Public Courses & Single Client Options Available Tuesday, 21 October Slide 3

4 Crude Prices Tuesday, 21 October Slide 4

5 Price Structure The price has moved down on the front end and up on the back end of the curve Tuesday, 21 October Slide 5

6 Supply Overview ~93 mbper day of liquids supply of which 73 mbper day is crude oil Tuesday, 21 October Slide 6

7 Supply Balances Europe, Asia and the North America are short Tuesday, 21 October Slide 7

8 Supply Outlook Short Term US and Canada boost non-opec supply, while within the OPEC group Libya and Iraq increase Tuesday, 21 October Slide 8

9 Supply US Shale boom is likely to slow down towards the end of the decade Tuesday, 21 October Slide 9

10 Supply US Lower oil prices means that less additional wells will be drilled Tuesday, 21 October Slide 10

11 Supply US Average costs per well increased this year again Tuesday, 21 October Slide 11

12 Supply - Canada Canadian supply to increase as long as infrastructure keeps pace Tuesday, 21 October Slide 12

13 Supply Russia New frontier projects will not be enough to compensate for the declines Tuesday, 21 October Slide 13

14 Supply Other FSU Other FSU East suppliers fail to deliver Tuesday, 21 October Slide 14

15 Supply Brazil Brazil output is about 1 million b/d below expectations Tuesday, 21 October Slide 15

16 Supply MENA Region Geopolitical risk remains high in MENA region Tuesday, 21 October Slide 16

17 Supply - Deepwater Deep Water hopes in the U.S. Gulf, Brazil and West Africa Tuesday, 21 October Slide 17

18 Supply Costs Easy barrels are gone frontier supplies come at a cost Tuesday, 21 October Slide 18

19 Supply - Costs IOCs have only limited access to cheap resources (about 3/4s are in the hands of NOCs) Tuesday, 21 October Slide 19

20 Price Signals The physical market has already stabilized and turned Tuesday, 21 October Slide 20

21 Market Structure Tuesday, 21 October Slide 21

22 Economy Tuesday, 21 October Slide 22

23 Investors The financial players got excited Tuesday, 21 October Slide 23

24 Demand Weak economic situation weighs on demand Tuesday, 21 October Slide 24

25 Call on OPEC OPEC must see that a cut is inevitable Tuesday, 21 October Slide 25

26 Saudi Arabia Increase domestic crude use and lower production levels lead to a sharp cut in crude exports Tuesday, October 21, Slide 26

27 Competing Grades There is no indication of a price war among OPEC Tuesday, 21 October Slide 27

28 Saudi Arabia No problem for the Saudis to cut Tuesday, 21 October Slide 28

29 Saudi Arabia Tuesday, 21 October Slide 29

30 Supply Outlook Long Term Cheap crude is only available in the Middle East, but will it be available? Tuesday, 21 October Slide 30

31 Supply Outlook Short Term Non-OPEC supply is set to increase mainly on the back of US crude additions While the North America boosts production, others disappoint: Brazil output is increasing, but way below initial expectations FSU East output is expected to decrease next year due to lower output from Russia, Kazakhstan (Kashagandelays) and Azerbaijan Other regions are not seen to have the capability to increase output In the Middle East, OPEC will need to lower output to make room for Iraqi barrels Libya output is also expected to increase over the upcoming months; however not to the same levels as seen before the 2011 crisis. Tuesday, 21 October Slide 31

32 Supply Outlook Long Term Cost of production is set to increase due to frontier developments Cost overruns and project delays are telling the story U.S. Shale boom is likely to slow down, but others will try to follow Main crude supply additions to cover demand will have to come from OPEC Middle East Tuesday, 21 October Slide 32

33 Thank you!