Oil price. Laura Lungarini
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1 Oil price Laura Lungarini
2 Agenda Crude oil market What is behind oil price Fundamentals Main Players Geopolitics Financial market The price determinant Benchmark crude oils Brent Physical and paper market Crude oil price evaluation Recent price dynamics
3 Understanding crude oil market Crude oil is a complex commodity, political, strategic and global in its nature.
4 What is behind oil price? Fundamentals: demand (economy), supply, market players Geopolitics: political tensions (Middle East and North Africa) Financial markets (speculation) Source: Bernstein
5 Fundamentals Oil balance and stocks P= f (D,S): Demand/Supply imbalance is a key factor in oil price Source: IEA A huge building of oil stocks is a bearish factor on oil price
6 Fundamentals market players OPEC Organization Petroleum Exporting Countries Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Algeria, Libya, Angola, Nigeria, Indonesia, Ecuador, Venezuela IEA International Energy Agency organization in the framework of the OECD. Its mandate focuses on energy security, economic development, and environmental protection USA top consumer and producer RUSSIA key producer. Today it is the third oil producer after USA and Saudi Arabia CHINA key consumer. Today driver of oil demand growth OIL COMPANIES TRADERS BROKERS FINANCIAL INSTITUTION
7 Geopolitics More than 3 Mb/d of losses from countries affected by turmoils
8 Financial market Chinese stock crisis Since late 80 s oil traded as a commodity, with the number of paper traded volumes and number and type of operators strongly increased. Last summer uncertainty on the effect of chinese slowdown has been the main driver of oil price plunge.
9 Benchmark crude oils WTI Brent Urals Dubai Tapis
10 Which Brent? Physical and Paper market The complex Brent market is a mixture of trading in physical barrels and trading in forward/future contracts. SPOT MARKET Dated Brent assessment that reflects the price of physical Brent crude. reference point for 75% of the crudes around the world FORWARD MARKET Forward Brent assessment of a transaction in the forward market. commitment to supply or lift Brent during a specific month in the future informal market an elite market FUTURE MARKET ICE Brent standardized futures contracts traded on a regulated exchange based on cash settlement and not on physical delivery. broader range of participants price can be locked in advance (several months, or even years) Paper and wet barrels influence each other, but paper barrels are more important
11 How to calculate the price of a crude oil the lighter the crude, the higher the relative price Short/long haul Refinery structure a potential factor which breaks the rules
12 An example of a differential: WTI vs Brent WTI (US benchmark) which historically recorded a premium versus Brent saw its quality premium completely eroded by the huge increase of supply in USA and set a sharp discount ( till 20 $/b) in
13 Oil price: 3 years in a range In the last few years, till the first half of 2014, oil price fluctuated in a range Macroeconomic risk Geopolitical risk
14 The last 18 months
15 Thank you for attention!!! Information contained in this presentation was produced within the NECST project "A New Energy Culture: Sustainability and Territories" funded under the Erasmus Plus Programme by the European Commission. This presentation is the sole responsibility of the NECST Project and does not represent the opinion of the European Commission or of the National Agency Indire nor is the European Commission or the National Agency Indire responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains
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