Stronger growth in the Euro Area but still without inflation. Accommodative monetary policies

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1 CONVICTIONS Conclusions of Natixis Asset Management monthly investment committee April 2015 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS Stronger growth in the Euro Area but still without inflation. Accommodative monetary policies Analysis of the markets environment & core scenario GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET ALLOCATION We overweight equities and credit in the euro area and stay away from US equities Strategic and tactical analysis and allocation Focus on FIXED INCOME Yields keep falling despite increased volatility in sovereign spreads, most notably in long maturities. Credit markets are under some pressure. Fed action is now conditioned to inflation dynamics. EUROPEAN EQUITIES We are neutral on the European equities for the short term following the fast market appreciation during the last weeks. GLOBAL EMERGING EQUITIES We stick to our Neutral stance on EM Equities. At this stage, we still fail to see any sign of positive momentum in economic indicators for EMs.

2 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic research Macroeconomic signals are now somewhat more favorable to Europe. Consumption is more robust in both Euro area and United Kingdom. In contrast, US data stalled in the first three months of the year. Is it the start of the weaker part of the business cycle? In emerging countries, the signals are still very fragile. Business in China is less intense and have a negative impact on several Asian countries. Brazil is the most fragile country early this year. While virtually all central banks adopt accommodative policies, the Brazilian central bank is very restrictive., but currently without effect on inflation or the currency. Core macro scenario World Economy PMI/Markit and ISM Surveys The American Economy In the first quarter the economy seemed to falter. Industrial activity, households' spending, orders for capital goods but also employment had a much slower momentum than during the last months of The explanation related to the climate does not seem sufficient to understand this inflection. The cycle that began in the summer of 2009 can be hit a high point in the middle of In any case there is no marked tensions. Regulation by the rising dollar seems to have been sufficient. The Japanese Economy In Japan, the economy is still slow to return to a strong growth trajectory after the negative and persistent impact of the VAT increase on 1 April. Households' expenditures are on the rise but they have not yet returned to the level before the rise. At the same time industrial production has become more volatile and exports have improved since the fall before slowing sharply in February. In other words, there is no strong sources of support for the activity. In addition, inflation will tend to 0 after clearing the VAT effect. All this strategy for this poor result? That's frightening Euro Area economy The macro-economic profile of the Euro zone is gradually improving. The short-term explanation probably reflects more the impact of lower energy prices than that of the ECB. It is the consumption that significantly improved at the end of 2014 and early However the decline of the euro and the entire ECB's strategy is beginning to bear fruit with higher orders, including export. Note in particular the strong dynamics seen in Ireland, Spain, Italy or Germany. But France is still lagging this improvement. France doesn't converge yet to the strong trajectory associated with a weak euro.. The global index was relatively stable in March. Indices in Europe (Euro Area + UK) continued to grow but the Japanese index fell to a level close to 50. Emerging countries slowed. As for the USA, the signals are contradictory. The ISM index bends sharply while the Markit is on the upside. This reflects uncertainty. Emerging Countries' surveys The BRIC index fell below the threshold of 50. Only India continues to see an increase in its manufacturing activity. The Chinese index was marginally below the 50 threshold while the Russian and Brazilian indices retreated. The most problematic point is Brazil. Its activity declines (-10% at annual rate over the last 3 months in February on industrial production), and consumer confidence is at its lowest.

3 Indicators Growth and inflation Avergage growth Average Inflation USA Japan Euro Area U.Kingdom China France Key interest rates Source : Economic research / Natixis AM Year end Monetary Policy Long Term Interest Rates (10 year) USA Japan Euro Area U.Kingdom Source : Economic research / Natixis AM Focus Monetary policies Inflation is now close to 0 in industrialized countries. This is not yet the case in Japan, but the withdrawal of the VAT effect will result in a inflation rate close to 0%. The failure of Abenomics is here because the 2% target was to be achieved in fiscal year It will not be the case. The underlying components of inflation in developed countries are still positive, but are all very far from the 2% target that central bankers must meet. There is no nominal pressure. Given the pace of oil prices, the inflation rate will remain close to 0 or negative board over the coming months. In addition, the sharp rise in production and large inventories of oil especially in the US are expected to push to lower prices. In this context of moderate growth and no inflation, monetary policies will remain highly accommodative. There is no ambiguity on the side of the ECB or the Bank of Japan. In the UK, the inflation rate is at 0%, the lowest since This will not be an incentive to change strategy at the Bank of England. The Federal Reserve is divided on what to do. Some want a quick response, others are willing to wait The absence of inflationary pressures, the expensive dollar and the slowdown in activity suggest that there is no rush and wait for 2016 to move is probably the right strategy.

4 GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET ALLOCATION Investment and client solutions investment division We remain overweight equities, emphasizing the preference for Euroland market versus the US and emerging markets. Theoretical model portfolio Benchmark Min Strategic Allocation Max Asset Classes Tactical Allocation Change from previous Month Previous Month 50% 30% 50% 70% Bonds 57.5% 2.5% 55.0% 40% 20% 60% Bonds 45.0% 45.0% Inflation 0.0% 0.0% World Bonds* 5.0% 5.0% 10% 0% 20% Emerging Debt*** 0.0% 0.0% Investment Grade 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% High Yield 2.5% -2.5% 5.0% 35% 20% 35% 50% Equities 37.0% -1.0% 38.0% 12.5% 5% 20% Euro 10.5% 10.5% Europe ex Euro* 7.0% 7.0% 12.5% 5% 20% USA* 11.5% -1.0% 12.5% 5.0% 0% 10% Japan* 3.0% 3.0% Developed Asia* 2.0% 2.0% Emerging Asia** 3.0% 3.0% 5.0% 0% 10% Emerging Europe - Africa - Middle East** 0.0% 0.0% Latin America** 0.0% 0.0% 5% 0% 5% 10% Commodities 0.0% -2.5% 2.5% Energy 0.0% 0.0% Industrial Metals 0.0% 0.0% Agriculture 0.0% 0.0% Precious Metals 0.0% -2.5% 2.5% 10% 0% 10% 20% Currencies 5.5% 1.0% 4.5% 5.0% 20% Cash 5.5% 1.0% 4.5% 1.0% 5% Dollar / 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5% Pound / 0.0% 0.0% 0% 1.0% 5% Swiss Franc / 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5% Yen / 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5% Emerging currencies / 0.0% 0.0% 100% 100% 100.0% 100.0% Volatility 7.3% 7.5% Tracking error 1.3% 1.2% The views used as input for the model portfolio are consistent with specialist s ones but may lead to different relative weighting versus benchmark compared to single asset class model portfolios.

5 Core scenario for global allocation Fixed income In the euro zone, the implementation of the ECB's purchase program helps to keep bond yields at historically low levels. However, due to the uncertainty about Greece, a slowdown of purchasing flows on peripheral debt with long maturities is observed. In the US, 10 years T-Note remains below 2% with an US economy that has slowed significantly over the last three months. Equities In rise of 18.7% since the beginning of the year, euro equities have not only outperformed the global market but also signed their best first quarter since The upturn in macroeconomic outlook, the expectation of an increase of profits forecasts revisions (due in particular to a favorable parity) and the measures taken by the European Central Bank have been the catalysts of this movement. Significant flows from abroad have then fueled this trend throughout the quarter. Currencies The /$ reached a new floor of $ by anticipation of a Fed action in the short term. So far, the committee meeting report shows no greater inclination to speed up the rising rates calendar, allowing a slight rebound in the Euro. Commodities The rising dollar and disappointing macroeconomic indicators both in the US and China, continue to weigh on commodity prices (-5% in March). Only the price of copper, impacted by significant production disruptions, increased over the month (+ 2.5%). Oil prices fell again (-13%) due to a further increase in production and to stocks records in the US. Any agreement on the Iranian nuclear would also have a negative impact on oil prices. Despite the sharp rise in Indian demand, gold also fell (-2.5%) under the weight of speculative short positions returned at record highs Global cycle Euro area: household confidence index Source: Bloomberg Household confidence in euro area edges closer to its 2007 peak. Financial markets Equity market: index price in localy currency S&P 500 EuroStoxx Source: Bloomberg 75 01/13 04/13 07/13 10/13 01/14 04/14 07/14 10/14 01/15 04/15 Favorable tailwinds augur a sharp rebound in euro area growth, thus leading to an excess performance of European equities.

6 FIXED INCOME Fixed income investment division Yields keep falling despite increased volatility in sovereign spreads, most notably in long maturities. Credit markets are under some pressure. Fed action is now conditioned to inflation dynamics. Market analyses & outlook The trend for lower yields in the euro area has strengthened with the effective implementation of the ECB programme on march 9 th. The yield on 10y Bunds closed the first quarter below 0.20%. Sovereign spreads have become more volatile due to a lengthening of maturities of bonds sold by sovereign peripheral issuers. The increased volatility is likely a positive as it offers opportunities in a context of yield convergence. It is hence worthwhile to maintain exposure to peripheral sovereigns. In the United States, a rate hike is likely to be warranted once the Fed will have reasonable confidence that inflation will revert to 2%. A move in April has already been ruled out. The soft patch in 1Q15 traceable in part to transitory factors certainly gives the Fed some time before raising interest rates. The 10y yield should hover about 2% before a rebound in growth materializes. In credit space, the sizeable amount of US corporate borrowing in euro markets did weigh on markets. The reduced ability of banks to absorb issuance explains in part the large widening in spreads as quarter-end neared. Such bond sales, now less attractive to US borrowers, have now started to slow. We hold on to a long bias on credit. In parallel, covered bonds and agency debt benefit from ECB support and LCR-related bank demand. It is worth noting that the ECB is able to maintain CB purchases at 3bn-per-week clip. Our positions MEDIUM AND LONG TERM INTEREST RATES Euro Area Sovereign debts continued to perform differently between countries. Germany beneficiated of a flight to quality, as well as US Treasuries. We have kept our overexposure on this country, particularly on the longer maturities in anticipation of a further flattening of the yield curve. We also keep our diversifications: flattening of the 10-30Y segment of the US Treasuries yield curve, investments in HY and convertible bonds MONEY MARKET RATES On March 5, the ECB left its director rates unchanged again: "refi" rate at 0.05%, marginal lending facility rate at 0.30% and deposit facility rate at -0.20%. But above all, the ECB gave details on its program of Euro zone's sovereign debts purchases ("QE") on a monthly rhythm of 60Bn on a market value basis. Purchases are confined solely to bonds with a return higher than the Deposit Facility Rate and with a maturity between 2 and 31 years. Lastly the list of "Agencies" eligible to the purchase program has been precised. As a matter of fact, purchases have already reached 41Bn for the month under review. The starting of this "QE" stayed as the sole thematic really followed by the markets during the month, and this even despite the "greek story". Enhanced by these important injections of liquidity, every "risked" markets of the Euro zone were favorably oriented. Money markets returns and credit spreads decreased again. So Eonia average in March fixed at -5 bp compared to -4 bp in February. In this context, our fixed and variable rate allocation target for "tactical" funds is again at 75%/25%. Portfolio diversification in corporates securities is still a major topic.

7 Sovereign portfolio OVERVIEW 03/ /2015 Duration - Euro: -- Long - Euro: -- Long Yield curve - flattening - flattening Indexed bonds Country selection - Real euro interest rates: Neutral - Real euro interest rates: Neutral core Overweight Overweight We had raised our exposure, last month, on peripheral debts. We will react quickly in case of sudden widening or narrowing of their spreads versus Core countries. semi-core Overweight Overweight peripherals Overweight Overweight CREDIT Total assets purchased by the European Central Bank now amount to 41bn since March 9 th With the perspective of these important injections of liquidity Euro area government bond yields fell to new record low. Consequently, we maintain a positive view on credit. Nevertheless, there has been some volatility due to a lot of issuance on the primary market. The average spread over Libor of the Barclays Euro Aggregate Corp index widened by 12 bp over the month, to 62 bp, equivalent to a negative return of -0.14%. View 04/ 2015* 05/ 2015* Two month credit view Sector view (IG) 04/ 2015* 05/ 2015* Covered** + + Cyclicals = = ABS + + Defensives = = Corporate High Yield Corporate Investment Grade + + Financials Banking (Subordinated) + ++ Banking (Senior) + + Convertibles +/+ +/+ Insurance + + Convertibles: Positive view on based on equity factor, fair implied volatility and strong demand for this asset class. So we overweight the global delta. We prefer CB with a Mixed and Equity profile. On the short term we actively trade our positions in order to reallocate the money on the best performer. High Yield: we are neutral on fundamentals (corporate results are OK), positive on technicals due to strong appetite for the asset class and continuing ECB policy. We are neutral on valuation. We continue to be positive on the asset class (+1) and we think spread will continue to tighten over the coming months. * Applicable until ** One month view

8 janv.-13 mars-13 mai-13 juil.-13 sept.-13 nov.-13 janv.-14 mars-14 mai-14 juil.-14 sept.-14 nov.-14 janv.-15 mars-15 GLOBAL EMERGING Volatile spreads with the US Fed not so patient anymore TAUX EMERGENTS Market analyses & Outlook A quite volatile month with an initial 40 bp spread widening to 395 bp, followed by a tightening, led to an overall spread increase to 370 bp, from 358 bp. Beyond specific country topics, drivers were still the global rate environment, especially the US Treasuries and the consequences of the ECB quantitative easing announcement. The focus has been quite significant on the FOMC meeting where the patient word has been dropped from the communiqué, opening the door to an interest rate hike. However, it has been accompanied with a more dovish than expected assessment of the US economy, supporting the back end of the US yield curve. Thus, US rates started to rally, EM currencies to stabilize and oil prices to recover. Long duration emerging bonds in USD enjoyed a strong bid in a context were inflows into emerging hard currency bond funds were also improving. However, this trend did not really benefit to local markets. Despite a similar rebound after the FOMC, they ended the month down still 2.98% (-3.96% year-todate), compared with a 0.2% monthly performance for the external debt (+2.0% year-to-date). Emerging currency weaknesses explain most of this underperformance. Brazil was again under pressures with heavy protests in the street and poor macro data. But comments from rating agencies giving the sentiment that a downgrade (excluding significant new Petrobras negative surprises) should not occur soon appeased the market. At the opposite, Russia posted a strong performance, both for the external debt and for the RUB. Our positions CORE SCENARIO The last FOMC announcement reinforced the view that developed bond yields are likely to remain low, although US bonds could see moderate upward pressures. Risk sentiment should stay supportive for spread products. We continue to overweight some high yielders even if we know we will have to stomach volatility in the short run. US debt performance versus EM international and local debt Dette Internationale UST dette locale Main related risks A sharp and prolonged sell off of commodities leading to further heterogeneity among EM universe and a much stronger US Dollar.

9 EUROPEAN EQUITIES European equities investment division We are neutral on the European equities for the short term following the fast market appreciation during the last weeks. Market analyses & outlook MSCI Europe Small Caps DNR / MSCI Europe DNR EURO STOXX 50 / S & P 500 implicit volatility Our positions Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg CORE SCENARIO Main related risks Despite an improving macro economic environment in the Euro zone due to the oil price decrease and US dollar strength, we are neutral on the European equities after the fast market appreciation during the last weeks. In terms of sector allocation we overweight Healthcare, Technology and Real Estate for the yield. We are neutral on Energy, Telecommunications, Banks, Insurance, Consumer staples, Materials and Utilities. In the sector of the Discretionary consumption, we overweight Media. We favor the Euro zone and the small capitalizations. Economic situation in Greece Deflation Risk in the Euro zone Deflation Risk in Japan Evolution of the currency rate Euro / USD

10 GLOBAL EMERGING EQUITIES We stick to our Neutral stance on EM Equities. At this stage, we still fail to see any sign of positive momentum in economic indicators for EMs. In China in particular, weak economic data continued during the month (industrial output, investment and retail sales growth). Moreover, the Q4 results season was currently below expectations, which puts questions on the attractive valuation argument for EMs. Market analyses & outlook In March, after a difficult start for the month marked by concerns regarding the timing of US rate hikes, a strong dollar and slowing growth in China, emerging markets ended the month on a more positive note thanks to pragmatic comments from Yellen post-fomc and proactive comments from the Chinese authorities. Over the month, the performance of EMs is in line with DMs (+2.95% vs %), thanks to Asia (+4.81%) helped by the good performance of Chinese markets (+6.95%) and Korea (+5.77%). EMEA (+1.38%), including Russia (+1.65%) resisted quite well despite another leg of oil price weakness in March. And finally, Latam is the most penalized region over the month (-3.37%) mainly thanks to Brazil (-7.33%) with the Real down more than 10% vs USD. Our positions CORE SCENARIO From a pure fundamental point of view, the lack of positive momentum on economic activity (particularly compared to developed countries), combined with a below expectations earnings season, does not validate the attractive valuation argument for emerging markets. Moreover, the strong US dollar environment continues to be a drag on the performance of the asset class. Positive on: China, Mexico, Thailand and Turkey. Negative on : Brazil, Russia and Malaysia. Emerging region performances & World Index ( DNR, source MSCI) Source: MSCI, Natixis AM 03/31/2015 Main related risks Renewed episode of tensions on US Treasuries triggering outflows and weaker EM currencies. Weaker for longer commodity prices. Overall inertia/deterioration in EM macro data compared to DM. Deteriorating investor sentiment towards EM.

11 NATIXIS ASSET MANAGEMENT In brief With assets under management of 313 billion and 648 employees (1), Natixis Asset Management ranks among the leading European asset managers. Natixis Asset Management offers its clients (institutional investors, companies, private banks, retail banks and other distribution networks) tailored, innovative and efficient solutions organised into 6 expertises: Fixed income covers the entire European bond universe: money market, sovereign debt, credit, inflation, aggregate, convertible, etc; European equities delivers active fundamental management and value approach in European large, mid and small cap stocks; Investment and client solutions offers tailored products and services for global allocation, especially for institutional clients, large companies, banks and life insurance companies. Global emerging provides active conviction-based management in equity emerging markets. Structured and volatility, developed by Seeyond (2), offers innovative solutions that conciliate performance and risk reduction research through structured management, flexible asset allocation, active volatility management, model-driven and active protected equity management. Responsible investing, (developed by Mirova (3) ) offers a global responsible investing approach: equities, bonds, infrastructure, Impact investing (4), voting and engagement. Natixis Asset Management s offer is distributed through the global distribution platform of Natixis Global Asset Management, which offers access to the expertise of more than twenty management companies in the United States, Asia and Europe. (1) Source: Natixis Asset Management 31/12/2014. (2) Seeyond is a brand of Natixis Asset Management (3) Mirova is a subsidiary of Natixis Asset Management. (4) Impact investing: investments with a strong social and environmental impact.

12 CONTRIBUTORS Michael AFLALO Head of Institutional and network solutions - Investment and client solutions investment division Matthieu BELONDRADE Head of Global emerging market equities Global emerging investment division Philippe BERTHELOT Head of Credit Fixed income investment division Axel BOTTE - fixed income strategist Fixed income investment division Emmanuel BOURDEIX - co-cio of Natixis AM - Head of volatility and structured investment division (Seeyond) Olivier DE LAROUZIERE Head of Fixed income Fixed income investment division Laurence FRETILLE - Product specialist European equities investment division Raphaël GALLARDO - Strategist Investment and client solutions investment division Ibrahima KOBAR - co-cio of Natixis AM Head of Fixed income investment division Brigitte LE BRIS - Head of International fixed income and currencies Fixed income investment division Yves MAILLOT Head of European equities - European equities investment division Franck NICOLAS Head of Investment and client solutions Investment and client solutions investment division Alain RICHIER Head of Money markets Fixed income investment division François THERET Head of Global and emerging equities Global emerging investment division Philippe WAECHTER Chief economist - Economic research Coordination: Investment and Client Solutions investment division of Natixis Asset Management Natixis Asset Management s Communications Department Source: Strategic Investment Committee Natixis Asset Management Limited liability company - Share capital 50,434, Regulated by AMF under no. GP RCS Paris n Registered Office: 21 quai d Austerlitz Paris Cedex 13 - Tel This document is intended for professional clients only. It may not be used for any purpose other than that for which it was intended and may not be reproduced, disseminated or disclosed to third parties, whether in part or in whole, without prior written consent from Natixis Asset Management. No information contained in this document may be interpreted as being contractual in any way. This document has been produced purely for informational purposes. It consists of a presentation created and prepared by Natixis Asset Management based on sources it considers to be reliable. Natixis Asset Management reserves the right to modify the information presented in this document at any time without notice, and in particular anything relating to the description of the investment process, which under no circumstances constitutes a commitment from Natixis Asset Management. Natixis Asset Management will not be held liable for any decision taken or not taken on the basis of the information in this document, nor for any use that a third party might make of the information. Figures mentioned refer to previous years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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