It certainly appears the primary focus of the Fed is to stimulate the housing market recovery in order to produce more employment.

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1 More Drugs for the Addicts Well, so much for market transparency! Mr. Bernanke may be going, but he certainly isn t leaving quietly. The forward guidance of the Fed for the US economy remains optimistic. It should be noted that the Fed, like many private economists, had expected a much healthier and an economy with broader participation by now. What is clear, by the Fed decision to do nothing about tapering or rates, the US economy started to stall as headline mortgage rates and ongoing higher prices for fuel dampened consumer spending. Focusing on only an unemployment rate is no longer a guide for the Fed exit strategy. Participation rates plunged in the US from June. This decline in participation rates removed the Fed s latitude to start the process of tapering. Getting out of Quantitative Easing is going to be a huge challenge for the Fed and the markets. What does this all mean? Short-term, the response will be for investors to plunge back into bonds and equities. More liquidity is fine for now, but when the Washington political soap opera plays out each day about the debt ceiling, you can count on a lot more volatility in the equity markets. As for the bond market, we maintain our longheld view that we will not see a sustainable rise in 10-year treasury yields above 3%. It certainly appears the primary focus of the Fed is to stimulate the housing market recovery in order to produce more employment. Our Chart of the Week shows the latest readings of the US housing industry. Chart of the Week: US New Private Housing Units Started and US Private Housing Building Permits SAAR in Thousands - Monthly to August 31, 2013 PERMITS 918 STARTS 891 Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 1

2 As the chart illustrates, the US housing industry is a long way from full recovery and the almost one million construction jobs still lost since Figure 1: US MBA Mortgage Market Index Weekly Rate of Change to September 13, 2013 MEASURE OF MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS FOR PURCHASES AND REFINANCING BERNANKE TIME OF HUGE MAKES REFINANCING ANNOUNCEMENT ON POTENTIAL TAPERING MOVE MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS SAW FEW INCREASES UNTIL THIS WEEK Figure 2: US MBA Mortgage Purchase Index SA Weekly to September 13, 2013 US REAL PURCHASE ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY LOW Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 2

3 Another issue for the Fed is the US fiscal situation. When the usually positive net Federal Budget number for September is released in October, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the final yearly deficit will be $642 billion. Figure 3: US Treasury Federal Budget Spending and Receipts in $ billions Monthly to August 31, 2013 HOW LONG COULD YOU RUN YOUR HOUSEHOLD LIKE THIS? SPENDING RECEIPTS Here s an interesting quote from Jack Lew, US Secretary Treasurer. He made this comment in a speech to the Economic Club in Washington on September 17, 2013 It is the Obama policies that have brought the dramatic decline in the deficit. And the Washington Post response? This is a bit like the rooster congratulating himself for the sun coming up in the morning. Remember, according to the same Jack Lew, the sequestration would paralyze the US economy. Estimated impact of the sequestration by the CBO? 0.5% of GDP. The political wrangling over the budget will continue to be played out on prime time television. Since the President came to office, one of the strongest performing groups is broadcasting; this sector is up over 360% since January Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 3

4 Figure 4: S&P 1500 Broadcasting & Media Index Weekly to September 18, 2013 NEW ALL-TIME HIGH On Wednesday, September 18 th, the equity markets soared after the Fed announcement. Normal behaviour for the equity markets has been to sell-off following the Fed statement. This time the bettors got it wrong and the scramble was on. Figure 5: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Indices Weekly to September 18, 2013 S&P (ALL-TIME HIGH) NASDAQ COMPOSITE ALLTIME HIGH WAS MARCH 2000 AT Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 4

5 There has been broad participation in the US equity markets. Several observers continue to call this a rally in a bear market. Some bear market. Figure 6: S&P Small Cap and DJ Transportation Indices Monthly to September 18, 2013 NEW ALL TIME HIGHS FOR S&P SMALL CAPS AND; DJ TRANSPORTATION S&P SMALL CAP DJ TRANSPORTATION We stated in our June 27 th Notebook that the summer would provide lots of buying opportunities in our favourite groups. That strategy paid off as of today. This week we get a quadruple witch expiry on Friday. This one could be explosive to the upside as lots of put protection was purchased in August and early September. The volatility indices showed this clearly but have been decline as the market has advanced. Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 5

6 Figure 7: CBOE Volatility Index for S&P 500 and NASDAQ Indices Daily to September 18, 2013 NASDAQ VOLATILITY PROTECTION BUYING S&P 500 VOLATILITY Here is the performance of our favourite groups: Figure 8: Bloomberg Americas Homebuilders and Building Material Indices Daily to September 18, 2013 KEEP ADDING TO BOTH HOMEBUILDERS BUILDING MATERIALS Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 6

7 Figure 9: Bloomberg Biotech and Internet Security Indices Daily to September 18, 2013 KEEP BUYING BOTH GROUPS BIOTECH INTERNET SECURITY Figure 10: Bloomberg Truck Builders and Auto-Parts Indices Daily to KEEP BUYING BOTH GROUPS TRUCK BUILDERS WBC PCAR NAV CMI AUTO PARTS (MAGNA; LINAMAR) Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 7

8 Figure 11: S&P Capital Goods Index Daily to September 18, 2013 BIG WEIGHTS & OUR FAVOURITES FOR FURTHER GAINS OVER NEXT YEAR : GE UTX BA ETN DHR SEPTEMBER 18 TH MARKS ALL TIME HIGH FOR INDEX Suddenly investors believe they must get into European equities. An examination of European equity markets will show that a recovery in Europe is already discounted. Figure 12: Bloomberg 500 Index and German DAX Index Weekly to September 18, 2013 DAX BLOOMBERG EUROPE 500 Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 8

9 Be careful about charging into European centric companies. If recovery is for real, then Ford or many other US multinationals are safer plays. While all seems okay short term for equity markets, please don t forget that China remains a key part of the investment equation. The big question for investors this summer was whether China was going into a slowdown or the economy was going to fall into a recession. One of the big concerns was the Chinese government s move to tighten credit in order to reduce the spread of the Chinese shadow banking system. In June the 1-year rates exceeded those of the 10-year. Inverted curves are always a warning sign for any economy. Currently the curve is back to steepening, but at much higher absolute levels. We need to monitor this closely over the next month. Figure 13: Chinese Government 1-Year and 10-Year Yields Daily to September 18, 2013 TIME OF AGGRESSIVE TIGHTENING BY PEOPLES BANK OF CHINA 10-YR YIELDS 1-YR YIELDS We continue to favour equities over bonds but recognize volatility makes many investors nervous. Now that the Fed is again committed to stimulating the economy, we can expect additional equity market returns over the next six months. Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 9

10 Terms and Conditions: Readers are advised that information contained in The Harbinger Notebook, correspondence or the website published by Harbinger Capital Markets Inc. should be used solely for informational purposes. Harbinger cannot be held liable for any loss or damages arising directly or indirectly as a result of a reader s reliance on information provided by Harbinger. Our opinions and analysis are believed to be accurate at the time made and are written in good faith, but not representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is to made as to their accuracy or completeness. We are not responsible for errors, omissions or for providing future updates. All information should be independently verified and readers should seek professional advice prior to making an investment decision. The information provided by Harbinger does not constitute a representation or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities or form part of an offer to provide investment management or advisory services. The Harbinger Notebook is published on a weekly basis 44 weeks of the year. The publication is distributed on alternate weeks in July and August. The annual subscription rate is $450 plus applicable taxes. A subscription to The Harbinger Notebook entitles the subscriber to the document delivered directly to an address. The Notebook or website contents may not be distributed to others under any circumstances without written consent. The Notebook or other materials may not be reproduced for distribution to other individuals. We will vigorously prosecute violations of our copyright. Copyright 2013 The Harbinger Notebook. All rights reserved Page 10