PP16795/03/2013(031743) Sep-16

Transcription

1 Tuesday, 19 September, 2017 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Research Team PP16795/03/2013(031743) Reports Published Economics Malaysia Economy: Jobless rate rises in July Corporate News Matrix Concepts to boost student enrolment at international school with Chinese collaboration Affin Holdings gets BNM green light to up stake in AXA Affin Kerjaya Prospek bags RM291m construction job in South Bangsar Salcon wins RM13.3m pipe replacement job T7 Global's investment hits oil in Xanadu, bags RM7.2m jobs Bursa Malaysia Close Change +/- Change % FBMKLCI 1, FBMEMAS 12, FBM100 12, FBMEMAS Shariah 12, FBM Hijrah Shariah 14, Volume (m) 1, Value (MYR m) 1, , FBMKLCI YTD performance 8.65 Economic News GST collection could exceed RM42bn target Global stocksat record high, USD rises as investors turn eyes to Fed World's central banks can't ignore the bitcoin boom UK PM May tightens grip over Brexit talks, appoints official as EU adviser China home price growth slows slightly in August as curbs bear down Singapore August non-oil exports strong on electronics, China shipments KLCI Performance KLCI Year-End Target: 1,800 points Regional Indices Commodities (Last Close) Close Change +/- Change % YTD Change (%) Close Change +/- Change % DJIA 22, Brent Crude (USD/bbl) NASDAQ 6, WTI Crude (USD/bbl) S&P 500 2, CPO (RM/MT) 2, FTSE 100 7, Gold (USD/ounce) 1, Nikkei 225 Closed Latex (sen/kg) HSI 28, Soybean Oil SHCOMP 3, KOSPI 2, Forex TWSE 10, (per USD) BIMB (YE Forecast) Close Change +/- Change % STI 3, MYR JCI 5, JPY SET 1, EUR PSEi 8, SGD

2 Major Rates Daily Participation Market Insight % Participation Bought Sold Net KLIBOR 3-mth 3.43 (%) (MYR m) (MYR m) (MYR m) KLIBOR 6-mth 3.55 Local Insti KLIBOR 12-mth 3.63 Local Retail yr MGS 3.50 Foreign yr MGS 3.85 Total , , Performance of BIMB Stock Coverage Top Gainers Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Top Losers Source: The Sun, BIMB Securities Research Close Change +/- Change % Close Change +/- Change % GHL Systems % Time Dotcom % IOI Properties % Kossan Rubber % Padini % Supermax % Prestariang % My Eg Services % Dagang Nexchange % Malakoff % 2

3 Reports Published Malaysia Economy Economics Jobless rate rises in July Unemployment rate increased to 3.5% The number of unemployed persons went up 0.5% yoy to 520,000 Employment increased by 2.0% to 14,497,000 Labor force rose 2.0% to 15,016,00 Labor force participation rate decreased marginally to 67.7%% Labor market supported by robust manufacturing and external sector Malaysia's unemployment rate rose slightly in July. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.5% in July from 3.4% posted in June. Meanwhile, In the corresponding month last year, unemployment rate was steady at 3.5% yoy (July 2016: 3.5%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the unemployment rate in July 2017 also edged up to 3.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The labor force participation rate decreased marginally to 67.7% in July as compared to the preceding month (67.8%). The number of unemployed persons grew 0.5% from a year earlier to 520,000. Employment increased by 2.0% to 14,497,000. Labor force rose 2.0% to 15,016,000. Table 1: Malaysia Key Labor Market Statistics Jan 17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Labor Force ( 000) 14,881 14,917 14,933 14,942 14,962 15,028 15,016 Labor Force (% YoY) Labor Force (% MoM) Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR, %) Employment ( 000) 14,367 14,402 14,422 14,430 14,454 14,520 14,497 Employment (% YoY) Employment (% MoM) Unemployment ( 000) Unemployment (% YoY) Unemployment (% MoM) Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate S.A. (%) Source: Department of Statistics, BIMB Securities 3

4 CORPORATE NEWS Matrix Concepts to boost student enrolment at international school with Chinese collaboration Matrix Concepts is partnering a local firm affiliated with a Chiense education group in Hebei, China, to boost the enrolment of Chinese students at its Negeri Sembilan international school. Its wholly-owned unit Matrix Global Education SB (MGE) inked an education joint collaboration agreement with Hengshui Yizhong Education Group SB. Hengshui Yizhong is affiliated with Hengshui No 1 High School (HHS) in Hebei, China, and is licensed to provide high school learning facilities in Malaysia, in compliance with the system of education in China. HHS is a well-known higher learning education group which has 52 branches around China with over 300,000 registered students and is a much sought-after school in China. (Source: The Edge) Affin Holdings gets BNM green light to up stake in AXA Affin Affin Holdings has secured the approval of BNM to acquire a 7.07% stake in AXA Affin General Insurance from Felda Marketing Services SB. The proposed acquisition will raise Affin Holdings' stake in AXA Affin, held via its commercial unit Affin Bank Bhd, from 37.07% to 44.14%.The financial services provider announced on Aug 4 that it would seek the central bank's approval for the proposed acquisition of 8.4m shares in Axa Affin from Felda Marketing Services for RM99.09m, cash. (Source: The Edge) Kerjaya Prospek bags RM291m construction job in South Bangsar Kerjaya Prospek has bagged a contract worth RM291m for construction works in South Bangsar. Its wholly-owned subsidiary Kerjaya Prospek (M) SB (KPMSB) has accepted a LoA from Bon Estates SB for main building works, hardscape works, external works and other ancillary works for a proposed residential development project known as "The Estate". The Estate comprises two 46-storey towers of residential high-rise with a total of 328 condominium units and a 3-storey podium for recreational facilities to be built on top of a fourand-a-half-level basement car park sited on a 3.68-acre freehold land. This is an expansion of KPMSB's current customer base. It further enlarges the group's order book and is expected to provide a steady stream of revenue for the group over the next 3 years. (Source: The Edge) Salcon wins RM13.3m pipe replacement job Salcon has bagged a RM13.27m contract under the pipe replacement programme in the Klang Valley. Selangor water asset operator Pengurusan Air Selangor SB awarded the contract to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Salcon Engineering. The project, covering Klang, Sabak Bernam, Kuala Selangor and Petaling Jaya, will commence on Oct 2 for 15 months, with an additional 18 months of defect liability period. It is expected to be completed on Jan 1, (Source: The Edge) T7 Global's investment hits oil in Xanadu, bags RM7.2m jobs T7 Global said its investment Triangle Energy Global Ltd has hit oil in the coastal Xanadu-1 well in the Perth Basin. The company are very pleased that Triangle Energy has hit oil in the Xanadu well and that their investment in Triangle Energy is bearing fruits so quickly after the completion of the investment in July T7 Global announced in June this year it acquired a 9.8% stake in the Australian-listed oil and gas exploration and production firm, Triangle Energy, for US$500,000 or about RM2.14m. The company will continue to work closely with the management to find new ways that T7 can support the growth of the business. (Source: The Edge) 4

5 ECONOMIC NEWS GST collection could exceed RM42bn target The goods and services tax (GST) in the country could exceed its RM42bn collection target set for this year. The amount of GST collected year to date has surpassed its collection in the same period last year, but declined to provide the exact collected amount. Some of the GST laws, in particular those pertaining to digital service providers, are currently being amended. the amount of additional GST revenue from the digital economy could come up to a few billions of ringgit. the amended GST law would have implications for the business-toconsumer (B2C) segment of the digital economy, and not those in business-to-business. (Source: Reuters) Global stocksat record high, USD rises as investors turn eyes to Fed An index of world stocks hit a record high and the dollar rose to a more-than 7 week peak against the yen as investors awaited clues from the US Federal Reserve on the timing of further rate hikes, while tensions over North Korea eased. On Wall Street, the Dow had a record close for the 5 th session in a row while the S&P set a closing record for the 2 nd consecutive session, led by gains in financial shares. Rising US Treasury yields boosted financial stocks, with higher interest rates expected to boost bank profits. A relatively quiet North Korea and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's comments on a "peaceful solution" over the weekend eased some concerns for investors. (Source: Reuters) World's central banks can't ignore the bitcoin boom The world s central banks can t sit back and ignore the growth in cryptocurrencies as it could pose a risk to the stability of the financial system. It said central banks will need to figure out whether to issue a digital currency and what its attributes should be, though the decision is most pressing in countries like Sweden where cash use is dwindling. Institutions need to take into account of not only privacy issues and efficiency gains in payment systems, but also economic, financial and monetary policy repercussions, its Quarterly Review. The analysis comes at the end of a rough week for digital currencies. (Source: Bloomberg) UK PM May tightens grip over Brexit talks, appoints official as EU adviser Prime Minister Theresa May appointed the top official at the Brexit ministry as her EU adviser, taking tighter control of divorce negotiations just as Britain tries to shift the focus of talks onto the future relationship with Europe. In order to strengthen crossgovernment co-ordination of the next phase of negotiations with the European Union, the Prime Minister has appointed Oliver Robbins as her EU Adviser in the Cabinet Office, in addition to his role as EU Sherpa. Robbins will continue to lead British officials in the negotiations and will work closely with Brexit Secretary David Davis. Robbins will be replaced as permanent secretary of the Brexit department by his second-in-command Philip Rycroft. (Source: Reuters) China home price growth slows slightly in August as curbs bear down China's property price growth slowed but remained firm in August despite stiff curbs to dampen speculative demand, suggesting the sector held up well with few risks of a severe correction many fear would blight the economy. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 0.2% in August, lower than the previous month's reading of 0.4%. The Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese property developers jumped on the news. China's top three developers by sales, Country Garden, China Vanke and China Evergrande rose 3.4%, 4.1% and 2.6% respectively. More than 45 major cities have imposed restrictive policies of different intensity to curb fast-rising prices, with most of the latest round of measures introduced in late March. These measures have started to take some heat out of the market as sales growth has slowed from peak levels seen at the start of the year, but buyer demand appeared to be more resilient than expected. (Source: Reuters) Singapore August non-oil exports strong on electronics, China shipments Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) surged in August from a year earlier at the strongest pace in 6 months, led by solid shipments of electronics and robust sales to China. Exports increased 17.0% in August from a year earlier, data from the trade agency International Enterprise Singapore. This was the largest yoy increase since February. It was also more than the 11.8% increase predicted in a Reuters survey. On a seasonally adjusted mom basis, exports rose 4.5%, exceeding the median forecast in the Reuters survey of a 3.1% expansion. Shipments to China soared 43.2% from a year earlier. Electronics exports, a major driver of shipments in recent months, rose 21.3% in August from a year earlier. (Source: Reuters) 5

6 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior Revised 09/19/ :00 EC ECB Current Account SA Jul b -- 09/19/ :00 EC Current Account NSA Jul b -- 09/19/ :00 IT Current Account Balance Jul m -- 09/19/ :00 HU Central Bank Rate Decision Sep % % -- 09/19/ :00 PD Sold Industrial Output MoM Aug 3.20% % -- 09/19/ :00 PD Sold Industrial Output YoY Aug 5.90% % -- 09/19/ :00 PD Construction Output YoY Aug 24.00% % -- 09/19/ :30 US Current Account Balance 2Q -$116.0b -- -$116.8b -- 09/19/ :30 US Import Price Index MoM Aug 0.40% % -- 09/19/ :30 US Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM Aug 0.20% % -- 09/19/ :30 US Import Price Index YoY Aug 2.20% % -- 09/19/ :30 US Export Price Index MoM Aug 0.20% % -- 09/19/ :30 US Export Price Index YoY Aug % -- 09/20/ :50 JN Trade Balance Aug 100.0b b 421.7b 09/20/ :50 JN Trade Balance Adjusted Aug 404.5b b -- 09/20/ :50 JN Exports YoY Aug 14.50% % -- 09/20/ :50 JN Imports YoY Aug 11.60% % -- 09/20/ :30 HU Current Account NSA 2Q /20/ :00 LN Current Account Balance 2Q b -- 09/20/2017 GR Current Account Balance Jul m -- 09/21/ :00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Sep % % -- 09/21/ :00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) Sep % % -- 09/21/ :00 LN Industrial Production YoY Aug % -- 09/21/2017 PO Current Account Balance Jul m -- 09/22/ :00 SP Trade Balance Jul m -- 09/22/ :00 PD Money Supply M3 MoM Aug 0.30% % -- 09/22/ :00 PD Money Supply M3 YoY Aug 5.20% % -- 09/22/ :45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep P /22/ :45 US Markit US Services PMI Sep P /22/ :45 US Markit US Composite PMI Sep P /25/ :30 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Sep P /25/2017 RO Money Supply M3 YoY Aug % -- 09/25/ /28 GE Import Price Index MoM Aug % -- 09/25/ /28 GE Import Price Index YoY Aug % -- 09/26/ :00 BP Gross External Debt Jul b -- 09/27/ :30 CH Industrial Profits YoY Aug % -- 09/27/ :30 SW Trade Balance Aug b -- 09/27/ :00 EC M3 Money Supply YoY Aug % -- 09/27/ :00 IT Industrial Orders MoM Jul % -- 09/27/ :00 IT Industrial Orders NSA YoY Jul % -- 09/27/ :00 IT Industrial Sales MoM Jul % -- 09/27/ :00 IT Industrial Sales WDA YoY Jul % -- 09/27/ :00 CZ Repurchase Rate Sep % % -- 09/28/ :00 CH Swift Global Payments CNY Aug % -- 09/28/ :30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 3.20% % -- 09/28/ :30 US Personal Consumption 2Q T % -- 09/28/ :30 US GDP Price Index 2Q T 1.00% % -- 09/28/ :30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Aug -$65.1b -- -$65.1b -$63.9b 09/29/ :50 JN Industrial Production MoM Aug P % -- 09/29/ :50 JN Industrial Production YoY Aug P % -- 09/29/ :45 CH Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep /29/ :00 JN Construction Orders YoY Aug % -- 09/29/ :00 FI Trade Balance Jul F m

7 DEFINITION OF RATINGS BIMB Securities uses the following rating system: STOCK RECOMMENDATION BUY Total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) is expected to exceed 10 in the next 12 months. TRADING BUY Share price may exceed 15 over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain. HOLD Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10 over the next 12 months TAKE PROFIT Target price has been attained. Fundamentals remain intact. Look to accumulate at lower levels. TRADING SELL Share price may fall by more than 15 in the next 3 months. SELL Share price may fall by more than 10 over the next 12 months. NOT RATED Stock is not within regular research coverage. SECTOR RECOMMENDATION OVERWEIGHT The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months NEUTRAL The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months Applicability of ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. Disclaimer The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of BIMB Securities Sdn may from time to time have a position in or either the securities mentioned herein. Members of the BIMB and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgements as of this date and are subject to change without notice. BIMB Securities Sdn accepts no liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from use of this report. Printed and published by BIMB SECURITIES SB ( X) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Level 32, Menara Multi Purpose, Capital Square, No. 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah, Kuala Lumpur Tel: Fax: Azharuddin Nordin Head of Research 7