PP16795/03/2013(031743)

Transcription

1 ket Insight Friday, 12, Jun Aug Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb Research Team PP16795/03/2013(031743) Reports Published Economics Malaysia economy: IPI growth eases; double-digit growth for manufacturing sales Economics Malaysia economy: On the path to recovery Results Review: SP Setia 1Q17 (Below): Township projects supporting sales Corporate News SP Setia optimistic of achieving RM4bn sales this year despite lower 1Q net profit MAHB's il passenger traffic up 16.9% highest increase since Feb 2014 Kerjaya Prospek gets RM207m Shah Alam property project CAB Cakaran proposes 2-to-5 share split; bonus issue Mitrajaya bags RM160.1m construction job Bursa Malaysia Close Change +/- Change % FBMKLCI 1, FBMEMAS 12, FBM100 12, FBMEMAS Shariah 13, FBM Hijrah Shariah 14, Volume (m) 3, Value (MYR m) 3, FBMKLCI YTD performance 8.14 Economic News ch industrial output up 4.6%, lower than expected Private investments in ECER to hit RM110bn this year Japan competes with China, makes sales pitch to win Malaysia- Singapore rail project US labour market tightens; inflation pressures builds Mexico warns US of alternatives on trade, points to China 'Smooth' Brexit should allow solid UK growth, BoE's Carney says EU raises euro zone growth forecasts, sees drop in unemployment KLCI Performance KLCI Year-End Target: 1,800 points Regional Indices Commodities (Last Close) Close Change +/- Change % YTD Change (%) Close Change +/- Change % DJIA 20, Brent Crude (USD/bbl) NASDAQ 6, WTI Crude (USD/bbl) S&P 500 2, CPO (RM/MT) 2, FTSE 100 7, Gold (USD/ounce) 1, Nikkei , Latex (sen/kg) HSI 25, Soybean Oil SHCOMP 3, KOSPI 2, Forex TWSE 10, (per USD) BIMB (YE Forecast) Close Change +/- Change % STI 3, MYR JCI Closed JPY SET 1, EUR PSEi 7, SGD

2 Major Rates Daily Participation ket Insight % Participation Bought Sold Net KLIBOR 3-mth 3.41 (%) (MYR m) (MYR m) (MYR m) KLIBOR 6-mth 3.53 Local Insti , , KLIBOR 12-mth 3.62 Local Retail yr MGS 3.58 Foreign yr MGS 3.95 Total , , Performance of BIMB Stock Coverage Top Gainers Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Top Losers Source: The Sun, BIMB Securities Research Close Change +/- Change % Close Change +/- Change % Hartalega % Gas Malaysia % Uzma % Padini % Petronas Gas % Caring Pharmacy % Kawan Food % TH Plantations % IOI Properties % Kimlun % 2

3 Jan'11 Jan'12 Jan'13 Jan'14 Jan'15 Jan'16 Jan'17 ket Insight REPORTS PUBLISHED Malaysia Economy -line Economics IPI growth eases; double-digit growth for manufacturing sales ch IPI rose 4.6% yoy but higher on monthly basis Manufacturing and electricity production triggered the slower yoy growth All sectors underpinned the significant growth on monthly basis Manufacturing sales recorded 4 consecutive months of double-digit annual growth Salaries & wages paid in ch 2017 registered a remarkable yoy and mom growth Improving external trade may push for higher industrial production ch IPI rose 4.6% yoy but higher on monthly basis Malaysia's industrial production growth was slightly lower in ch 2017 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Industrial production increased by 4.6% yoy in ch, marginally slower than the previous month (+4.7%). The lower IPI for the month was due to slower growth in manufacturing (: 5.9%; Feb: +6.6%) and declined electricity output (: -0.2%; Feb: +1.5%). However, mining sector posted a higher growth by 2.0% yoy in ch from 0.4% registered in February. On monthly basis, the industrial production growth spiked 11.0% from a slower growth recorded on the previous month (-5.7%). All sectors logged an outstanding growth in ch, in contrast with a previous month that registered a negative growth for all sector. Manufacturing and electricity sector posted a double-digit growth of 11.6% and 12.4% respectively. Mining sector also recorded remarkable growth, up by 9.1% as compared to the previous month (-9.7%). Chart 1: Industrial Production (YoY%) IPI Manufacturing Mining Electricity Source: Department of Statistics, BIMB Securities 3

4 Jan'10 Jan'11 Jan'12 Jan'13 Jan'14 Jan'15 Jan'16 Jan'17 ket Insight Malaysia Economy -line Economics On the path to recovery CPI climbed 4.3% yoy in first three month of 2017 Exports surged 21.4% while imports increased 27.7% in 1Q17 Resilience private consumption in 1Q17 The construction sector will strengthen in 1Q17 Distributive trade supports outlook of stronger private consumption Manufacturing and services sector growth sustained Broad-based pickup for 1Q17 Malaysia is likely to enjoy some momentum from 1Q17 along with similar upturn in the global economy. Preliminary 1Q17 data suggests that Malaysia is making steady progress along its recovery trajectory. The consumer-price index (CPI), the country's main inflation gauge, rose 5.1% yoy in ch the highest since ember 2008 when it accelerated 5.7%. CPI for the first three months of 2017 registered an increase of 4.3% as compared to the same period last year. Inflation has trended sharply higher in 1Q17, though largely from the cost-push factors. Inflation is expected to remain high from a combination of cost-push factors and, to a certain extent, low base effect from 2016 s inflation though broad price trends remain largely unchanged. Chart 1: Malaysia Inflation (%YoY) Source: Department of Statistics, BIMB Securities External demands have firmed up as evidenced by improving export numbers though trade surplus continued to narrow from faster expansion in imports, partially attributed to weaknesses in the ringgit. A new milestone for export performance was recorded in ch 2017, breaching RM80bn mark for the first time. Exports grew by 24.1% to RM82.6bn, the highest monthly export value ever recorded. This was the fourth consecutive month exports registered double digit growth since December Imports surged by 39.4% to RM77.2bn, while trade balance stood at RM5.4bn, making it the 233rd consecutive month of trade surplus since ember

5 ket Insight CORPORATE NEWS SP Setia optimistic of achieving RM4bn sales this year despite lower 1Q net profit SP Setia, which is controlled by PNB, saw its net profit for the 1QFY17 drop 14.8% to RM105.18m from RM123.39m a year ago, despite higher revenue. SP Setia attributed the drop in earnings to lower other income generated from its wood-based manufacturing, trading activities, and the operation of retail mall and Setia City Convention Centre, which saw a significant 45.2% drop to RM37.68m from RM68.76m a year ago. However, SP Setia s quarterly revenue grew 3.5% to RM940.19m from RM908.46m, thanks to higher income from its property development and construction businesses which grew 0.4% and 58.8% respectively. It secured property sales of RM426.8m, of which local sales contributed 82% or RM351.4m to total sales, while the remaining 18% or RM75.4m were generated from international projects. (Source: The Edge) MAHB's il passenger traffic up 16.9% highest increase since Feb 2014 MAHB handled 16.9% more passengers at the 39 airports it manages in the country in il 2017 the highest increase since February Passenger traffic grew to 8.17m, from 6.98m in the same month last year. Its including MAHB s operations in Turkey the Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (SGIA) it saw a 14.7% increase in passenger numbers to 10.74m in il 2017, from 9.36m a year ago. SGIA passengers grew by 8.1% in il 2017 to 2.57m passengers, compared with 2.38m passengers a year ago. On the local front, the international segment at the 39 airports MAHB manages in Malaysia saw a 20.2% increase to 4.1m in il 2017, from 3.41m a year ago, while domestic passengers rose 13.7% to 4.06m, from 3.57m. (Source: The Edge) Kerjaya Prospek gets RM207m Shah Alam property project Kerjaya Prospek's unit has accepted a RM207.36m contract to undertake a property development project in Shah Alam. Its unit Kerjaya Prospek SB (KPSB) had accepted a LoA from BCB Development for the main building works for the project which included storey bungalows, 166 three-storey semi-detached house and one 2-storey club house along Persiaran Anggerik Oncidium, Seksyen 31, Shah Alam. Construction by KPSB is expected to start next Monday, 15 and due to be completed end-tember Kerjaya Prospek said the contract would further increase and enhance the existing order book of the group. (Source: StarBiz) CAB Cakaran proposes 2-to-5 share split; bonus issue CAB Cakaran has proposed to undertake a share split and bonus issue to enhance the marketability and trading liquidity of its shares. The share split will involve subdivision of every two existing shares into five split shares, and a bonus issue of up to m new split shares to be credited as fully paid-up with 1 bonus share for every four split shares. The proposals will take place based on an entitlement date to be determined later. Furthermore, the proposed share split would result in an adjustment to the market price of CAB shares, with a more affordable entry price, potentially appealing to a wider group of public shareholders and/or investors, to participate in the growth of the company. (Source: The Edge) Mitrajaya bags RM160.1m construction job Mitrajaya has bagged a RM160.1m contract to build residential buildings for a higher learning institution here. Its wholly-owned subsidiary Pembinaan Mitrajaya SB has accepted the proposed job, which will commence on 18 for a duration of 24 months and is expected to be completed by The contract is expected to contribute positively to the group s future earnings. Mitrajaya shares closed 0.74% higher at RM1.37 today, valuing it at RM917.15m. (Source: The Edge) 5

6 ket Insight ECONOMIC NEWS ch industrial output up 4.6%, lower than expected Malaysia's industrial output expanded 4.6% in ch from a year ago, boosted by the manufacturing sector, but the growth was slower than Bloomberg's survey of a 4.8% increase. The IPI growth was supported by positive growth in manufacturing index (5.9%) and mining index (2.0%). However, the electricity index declined by 0.2%. The manufacturing sector output accelerated to 5.9% in ch 2017 after recording a 6.6% increase in February The major sub-sectors which recorded an expansion in ch 2017 were the electrical and electronics products (8.5%); petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products (3.6%); and wood products, furniture, paper products, printing (10.3%). The mining sector output posted a higher growth of 2.0% in ch (Source: StarBiz) Private investments in ECER to hit RM110bn this year The East Coast Economic Region Development Council (ECERDC) expects private investments to reach RM110bn in the East Coast Economic Region (ECER) this year, a target actually set for Realising the target sooner-than-expected has been no mean feat but thanks to catalyst like high-impact infrastructure projects, improved connectivity, readily available resources and the support of a pool of skilled manpower, attracting investments from both domestic and foreign investors has been possible. The infrastructure-ready industrial parks in the ECER and investor-friendly incentives were also major pull factors for investors as they could start their operations immediately while enjoying many perks including a 10-year tax holiday. (Source: Bernama) Japan competes with China, makes sales pitch to win Malaysia-Singapore rail project Japan is stepping up efforts to win a Malaysia-Singapore high-speed railway project by sending a high-level mission to Kuala Lumpur to campaign for the adoption of the shinkansen bullet train system. In the past 52 years, there has never been a fatal accident involving the shinkansen bullet train system which proves its high quality and stability. The operating and infrastructure costs of the shinkansen are relatively low, helping to achieve the goal of (minimal) manufacturing and recycling costs, and even profitability. The 350km high-speed rail project should link Kuala Lumpur with Singapore in just 90 minutes under an agreement signed by the 2 Southeast Asian countries in y Both countries are aiming to begin operations in (Source: NST) US labour market tightens; inflation pressures builds New applications for US jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week while producer prices rebounded strongly in il, pointing to a tightening labor market and rising inflation that could spur the Fed to raise interest rates in June. Labour market strength was also underscored by a sharp drop in the number of Americans on unemployment rolls to a 28-1/2-year low in the final week of il. The best labour market in nearly 30 years should tell Fed officials that additional monetary stimulus is not required. They expect them to put another rate hike notch on their belts at the upcoming June meeting. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended 6, confounding economists' expectations for a rise to 245,000. (Source: Reuters) Mexico warns US of alternatives on trade, points to China Mexico sent a stark message to US President Donald Trump, saying an upcoming visit to China in tember made it clear Latin America's No 2 economy has lots of other alternatives amid tense trade negotiations. Mexico is grappling with Trump's desire to renegotiate the NAFTA that underpins its economy, prompting the government to try and diversify away from the US, which takes 80% of its exports. They will use (the China visit) geopolitically as strategic leverage. It sends the signal that they have many alternatives. Mexico has tried to deepen commercial links with China for years, and President Enrique had hoped a Chinese high-speed train contract would presage more investment. (Source: Reuters) 'Smooth' Brexit should allow solid UK growth, BoE's Carney says Britain should enjoy solid growth if Brexit goes smoothly, but in the short run households are likely to be hit by inflation prompted by the decision to leave the EU. Governor k Carney said the economy was still growing and employing a record number of people, playing down recent signs of weakness. Britain's economy was 1 of the best performing major advanced economies last year, wrongfooting the BoE and most other forecasters who predicted that voting to leave the EU would send the economy into a tailspin. The Bank's 2 previous sets of quarterly forecasts brought big upward revisions to the growth outlook and it only softened its short-term outlook a fraction, despite recent data showing that growth is now slowing sharply. (Source: Reuters) EU raises euro zone growth forecasts, sees drop in unemployment Euro zone economic growth should grow a bit faster this year than previously believed and the unemployment rate could be the lowest in a decade. It also predicted low inflation, a challenge for the ECB whis is trying to boost it. The 19-country euro zone is expected to expand by 1.7% this year and 1.8% in 2018, slightly raising its previous estimate for euro zone growth of 1.6% this year, while leaving unchanged the 2018 forecast. The projected growth for 2017, however, remains lower than 2016 when it was 1.8%, and further below the 2.0% post-crisis high reached in The Commission's forecasts, predict all euro zone countries will grow this year and next, with Germany, the bloc's largest economy, accelerating to 1.9% in (Source: Reuters) 6

7 ket Insight ECONOMIC CALENDAR Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior Revised 05/12/ :50 JN Money Stock M2 YoY 4.30% % -- 05/12/ :50 JN Money Stock M3 YoY 3.60% % -- 05/12/ :00 EC Industrial Production SA MoM 0.30% % -- 05/12/ :00 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY 2.30% % -- 05/12/ :00 PD Money Supply M3 MoM 0.80% % -- 05/12/ :00 PD Money Supply M3 YoY 7.10% % -- 05/12/ :30 US CPI MoM 0.20% % -- 05/12/ :30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% % -- 05/12/ :30 US CPI YoY 2.30% % -- 05/12/ :30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.00% % -- 05/12/ :30 US CPI Core Index SA /12/ :30 US CPI Index NSA /12/ :30 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY % -0.10% 05/12/ :30 US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY % -- 05/11/ /15 CH Money Supply M2 YoY 10.80% % -- 05/11/ /15 CH Money Supply M1 YoY 17.30% % -- 05/11/ /15 CH Money Supply M0 YoY 6.80% % -- 05/15/ :00 CH Industrial Production YoY 7.00% % -- 05/15/ :00 CH Industrial Production YTD YoY 6.90% % -- 05/15/ :00 FI Current Account Balance b -- 05/15/ :00 LN Current Account Balance m -- 05/15/ :30 SW Industry Capacity 1Q % -- 05/15/ :00 CZ Current Account Monthly CZK 20.00b b -- 05/15/ :00 PD Current Account Balance -319m m -- 05/15/ :00 PD Trade Balance -110m m -- 05/15/ :00 BE Trade Balance m -- 05/16/ :30 NE Trade Balance b -- 05/16/ :00 EC Trade Balance SA b -- 05/16/ :00 EC Trade Balance NSA b -- 05/16/ /17 IR Trade Balance m 4736m 05/17/ :50 JN Machine Orders MoM 3.00% % -- 05/17/ :50 JN Machine Orders YoY 1.50% % -- 05/17/ :30 JN Industrial Production MoM F % -- 05/17/ :30 JN Industrial Production YoY F % -- 05/17/ :30 JN Capacity Utilization MoM % -- 05/17/ :00 IT Trade Balance EU m -- 05/17/ :00 IT Trade Balance Total m -- 05/17/ :30 SW Riksbank's Floden Gives Speech 05/17/2017 PD Poland Base Rate Announcement % % -- 05/17/2017 CH FX Net Settlement - Clients CNY b -- 05/18/ :50 JN GDP SA QoQ 1Q P 0.40% % -- 05/18/ :50 JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ 1Q P 1.80% % -- 05/18/ :50 JN GDP Nominal SA QoQ 1Q P 0.10% % -- 05/18/ :50 JN GDP Deflator YoY 1Q P -0.70% % -- 05/18/ :50 JN GDP Private Consumption QoQ 1Q P 0.50% % -- 05/18/ :50 JN GDP Business Spending QoQ 1Q P -0.40% % -- 05/18/ :00 CZ Export Price Index YoY % -- 05/18/ :00 CZ Import Price Index YoY % -- 05/19/ :00 EC ECB Current Account SA b -- 05/19/ :00 EC Current Account NSA b

8 ket Insight DEFINITION OF RATINGS BIMB Securities uses the following rating system: STOCK RECOMMENDATION BUY Total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) is expected to exceed 10 in the next 12 months. TRADING BUY Share price may exceed 15 over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain. HOLD Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10 over the next 12 months TAKE PROFIT Target price has been attained. Fundamentals remain intact. Look to accumulate at lower levels. TRADING SELL Share price may fall by more than 15 in the next 3 months. SELL Share price may fall by more than 10 over the next 12 months. NOT RATED Stock is not within regular research coverage. SECTOR RECOMMENDATION OVERWEIGHT The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months NEUTRAL The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months Applicability of ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. Disclaimer The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of BIMB Securities Sdn may from time to time have a position in or either the securities mentioned herein. Members of the BIMB and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgements as of this date and are subject to change without notice. BIMB Securities Sdn accepts no liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from use of this report. Printed and published by BIMB SECURITIES SB ( X) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Level 32, Menara Multi Purpose, Capital Square, No. 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah, Kuala Lumpur Tel: Fax: Azharuddin Nordin Head of Research 8