A Global Finance Forum on. Oil Price Volatility, Economic Impacts, and Financial Management: Risk-Management Experience, Best Practice, and Outlook

Transcription

1 A Global Finance Forum on Oil Price Volatility, Economic Impacts, and Financial Management: Risk-Management Experience, Best Practice, and Outlook Jointly organized by the World Bank and George Washington University March 10-11, 2008 Jack Morton Auditorium, st street, NW, Washington DC March 10, :00-8:30 am 8:30-9:15am Registration Opening Session: Dr. Steven Knapp, President of George Washington University Keynote Speaker: Graeme Wheeler, Managing Director, The World Bank 9:15-10:45 am Chair: Alex Fleming, Manager, World Bank Institute Session 1: Implication of high and volatile oil prices for international capital flows and the global economy The current market situation (economic and geopolitical factors) consequences of high oil prices, consequences of volatile oil prices, Implications of rising giants /changing economic structure, and Global external imbalances and current financial market turmoil Keynote Speakers: Jeffrey Currie, Chief Strategist& MD for Global Investment, Goldman Sachs Steven Kamin, Associate Director, International Finance, Board of Governors, US Federal Reserve Danny M. Leipziger, Vice President, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, The World Bank 1

2 10:45-11:00 am 11:00 am - 12:30 pm Session 2: Looking into the future: Are High and Volatile Oil Prices Here to Stay? Speculation vs. supply & demand as key drivers which is most important? What can be learned about the future from oil-price forecasts? And from derivative markets? What can be learned about scenario analysis? How reliable are these price forecasts scenario analysis? Can they provide a reliable basis for budget planning? link them to risk management Robert Weiner, George Washington University Shane S. Streifel, The World Bank Discussant: Mark Finley, General Manager, Global Energy Markets & US Economics, BP America, Inc 12:30-2:00 pm 2:00-3:30 pm Alan Gelb, Acting Vice President, Development Economics, The World Bank Luncheon at the World Bank MC building (1818 H Street, NW) Speaker: Jim Burkhard, Managing Director, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) Session 3: What is to be done?: Coping with oil price risk - Policy Roundtable Several policy options are available for risk management: fiscal vs. financial. Fiscal burden /financial regulatory issues: the role of government We will focus on solutions using financial instruments: The nuts and bolts of risk management via financial markets should be discussed; and Case studies Hon. Atchana Waiquamdee, Vice Governor Bank of Thailand Mohamad Ikhsan, Vice Minister, Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Indonesia Evgeny Gavrilenkov, Chief economist, Troika Dialog, Russia Robert Bacon, Energy Sector Management Assistance Program, IFC and The World Bank Daniela Gressani, Vice President, Middle East and North Africa Region, World Bank 2

3 3:30-4:00 pm 4:00-5:30 pm Session 4. Financial Markets and Institutions for risk management - Parallel sessions [ break out sessions] Session 4a: Views from exporting countries and private sector participants Session 4b. Views from the importing countries and the private sector The role of Financial institutions, markets Representatives from emerging oil exporting countries Representatives from PetroVietnam and Nigeria Group facilitators: Arvind Gupta, Program Leader, World Bank Institute 5:30-6:00pm 6:00 8:00pm The role of Financial institutions, markets Representatives from oil importing countries, such as SinoPec China. Group facilitators: Yan Wang, task manager, World Bank Institute Reporting back to the plenary session Shigeo Katsu, Vice President, Europe and Central Asia Region, The World Bank Reception March 11, :30-10:00 am Session 5: The new kings of finance: the rising influence of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and hedge funds How are sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds shaping global capital markets: financial stability and risk management Concerns about sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds: transparency, governance and accountability A typology of SWFs: investment objectives, liabilities, investment horizon, and risk preferences Managing petro-wealth: designing investment and spending policies Frank Holmes, Chief Executive Officer of U.S. Global Investors Jennifer Calari, Director, Sovereign Investment Partnerships, World Bank Arjan Berkelaar, Principal Investment officer, Asset Allocation & Quant Strategies, World Bank Tom A. Fearnley, Investment Director, Norwegian Ministry of Finance Kenneth Lay, Vice President, Treasury, World Bank 3

4 10:00-10:30 am 10:30 am - 12:00 pm Session 6a: Financial instruments available to manage risks: Part I Definition of a derivatives-based Risk Management (RM) Policy Risk Management with derivatives 1. Instruments and strategies: basics 2. Oil derivatives markets 3. Market analysis Implementation of a derivatives-based Risk Management policy 1. Implementation framework 2. Lessons learned and best practice: European airlines 3. Simulation of derivatives-based strategies Ivan Zelenko, Head of Derivatives and Structured Finance, Treasury, The World Bank Discussant: Hans-Werner Polzin, Director Risk Management, Deutsche Lufthansa AG James Daniel, European Department, The IMF 12:00-1:30 pm 1:30-3:00 pm Lunch at the World Bank MC building (1818 H Street, NW) Keynote Speaker: Guy Caruso, Administrator, EIA, US Dept of Energy Session 6b: Financial instruments available to manage risks: Part II New instruments and financial engineering: futures / options, derivatives-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), and oil related bond etc o The properties of each instruments o Behaviors of each instruments under different market environment o Prerequisite of establishing such markets o Best practices and case studies Robert Levin, Senior VP for Research, New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Ismail Dalla, World Bank Institute and IFC Discussant: Robert Weiner, George Washington University Michel G. Maila, Vice President, Risk Management, International Finance Corporation 4

5 3:00-3:35 pm 3:30-4:45 pm Session 7: View from market participants and regulators: Risk management practices, and Role of National Oil Companies Some user of oil are hedging oil price risks, others are not, why? Case studies by key corporate strategist from the Airlines on their risk management strategies Will the change in the role of international and national (i.e., state) oil companies affect future production and oil market? How? Hans-Werner Polzin, Director of Risk Management, Deutsche Lufthansa AG Yasser Mufti, Corporate Advisor and Head of the Energy Outlook Group in Corporate Planning, Saudi Aramco 4:45-5:30 pm Arvind Gupta, Program Leader, WBIFP, World Bank Institute Session 8: Closing and Take-Away Messages - High Level Policy Roundtable Closing the loop: Coping with oil price volatility: from financial development issues to macro stability and growth Chair: Abdulrahman Almofadhi, Executive Director at the World Bank, representing Saudi Arabia Pamela Cox, Vice President, Latin America and Caribbean Region, The World Bank Representatives from exporting and importing countries Conference Evaluation End of Conference Thanks to Conference supporting institutions: UCLA CIBER University of Colorado-Denver CIBER University of South Carolina CIBER University of Wisconsin CIBER 5