IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA. November 12-14, 2018 Dubai, UAE IN COOPERATION

Transcription

1 IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA November 12-14, 2018 Dubai, UAE IN COOPERATION

2 COURSE DESCRIPTION IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting with a Focus on MENA This three day program is a condensed and shorter version of the following three courses offered by the IMF: (1) Financial Programming and Policies; (2) Macroeconomic Diagnostics; and (3) Macroeconomic Forecasting. Class size will be kept small and the content is tailored to fit participants interests. The program will explore core macroeconomic ideas that provide consistent forecasting techniques for the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors, and how they relate to each other. For each sector, the course presents the accounting framework, interpretations of variables and indicators from these accounts, and basic analysis of the accounts. The program also includes a series of workshops in which participants, under the guidance of counselors, are divided into groups, to implement the diagnostic and analytical tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators of a country. An impressive group of expert industry practitioners, including former IMF staff members, and chief economists with more than 25 years of experience will share their insights with participants. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Review the principal features of the different accounts used in macroeconomic analysis, and the interrelations among these accounts. Create consistent two-year economic projections. Estimate and analyze potential output, identify the expenditure composition of growth, assess fiscal policy, and public and external debt sustainability. Identify and appraise the economic vulnerabilities in MENA economies. Examine different techniques on how to forecast oil prices Analyze economic and financial developments of a case study country using a hands-on, Excel-based framework. * Participants should plan to bring their own laptops. TARGET AUDIENCE: Economic Research Country/Sovereign Risk Country strategists Analysts, economists, and senior economists Fixed income analysts REGISTER AT IIF.COM/ EVENTS Registration is open up to one week prior to program start date or until capacity is reached. Capacity limitations may force some programs to close registration early. PROGRAM FACTS Date: November 12-14, 2018 Location: Dubai, the UAE Pogram Fee: - Group member rate $950 (2 or more from same firm) - Member rate $ Non-member firm $2900 For inquiries regarding group registration rates of two or more attendees, please contact us at meetings@iif.com 2 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH FOCUS ON MENA

3 Monday, November 12 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION AND BREAKFAST 9:00 am 9:10 am SESSION 1: WELCOME SESSION Opening remarks 9:10 am 10:00 am SESSION 2: HOW DO WE GO ABOUT DOING PROJECTIONS Introduction to the program Projecting growth Examples of inconsistent forecasts Schematic representation of inter-sectoral linkages 10:00 am 11:00 am SESSION 3: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Links between balance of payments and the fiscal sector Links between balance of payments and monetary survey Links between monetary the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency Wolfgang Engel IIF Chief Regional Representative in Dubai Chief Economist, MENA, IIF, Washington DC Chief Economist, MENA, IIF, Washington DC 11:00 am 11:30 am COFFEE BREAK 11:30 am 1:00 pm SESSION 4: MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK, POLICYMAKING, AND INTERCONNECTIVITY Overview of the interconnectivity of the various parts of the macroeconomic framework Main challenges that arise in policymaking due to interconnectivity Examples: selected MENA countries Real life challenges and trade-offs from policymaker point of view Dr. Mazen Soueid Advisor to Lebanese PM, Chief Economist BankMed Previous IMF Staff 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 5: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING GDP AND CPI Inflation drivers New Keynesian Phillips curve Forecasting inflation using VAR Technique Forecasting GDP deflator Forecasting real GDP Growth Dr. Reza Siregar, Head of ASEAN and India Research, IIF Office in Singapore 3:00 pm 3.30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 6: ESTIMATING POTENTIAL GROWTH Estimating potential output Growth accounting approach HP Filter approach Chief Economist, MENA, IIF, Washington DC MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA 3

4 Tuesday, November 13 8:30 am 9:00 am BREAKFAST 9:00 am 9:45 am SESSION 7: GUILDLEINES FOR FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT Analytical presentation of the BOP Forecasting exports, imports, and other current account components Dr. Reza Siregar, Dr. Mazen Soueid 9:45 am 10:30 am SESSION 8: FORECASTING CAPITAL FLOWS Foreign direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Dr. Reza Siregar 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:00 pm SESSION 9: FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures 12:00 pm 1:00pm SESSION 10: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Assessing current account and fiscal sustainability Debt-to-GDP dynamic How to stabilize debt Dr. Reza Siregar, Dr. Reza Siregar Dr. Garbis Iradian 1:00 pm 2:00 pm LUNCH 2:00 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 11: FORECASTING KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF GCC ECONOMIES Oil and Non-oil GDP Growth Exports, Imports, Oil Revenue, Non-oil revenue, Gov t Spending Country Examples Dr. Garbis Iradian 3:30 pm 4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:00 pm 4:45 pm SESSION 12: THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF MENA ECONOMIES Reassessing MENA s growth dynamics Public policy challenges rebalancing and reform How oil prices would impact MENA economies Dr. Mazen Souied 4:45 pm 5:30 pm SESSION 13: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecast for 2018 and 2019 Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth, etc. *Participants are expected to bring their own laptops equipped with Excel (EViews desirable but not crucial) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries Dr. Garbis Iradian Dr. Reza Siregar 4 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA

5 Wednesday, November 14 8:30 am 9:00 am BREAKFAST 9:00 am 10:30 am SESSION 14: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecasting real GDP growth Forecasting CPI and GDP deflator Forecasting the main components of the BOP Garbis Iradian, Reza Siregar and Boban Markovic, 10:30am 11:00am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 1:00 pm SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecasting the main components of the current account Forecasting the main components of the financial account Forecasting the monetary survey Garbis Iradian, Reza Siregar and Boban Markovic, 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONTINUED) Forecasting government revenue Forecasting government spending Forecasting the monetary survey Reza Siregar, Garbis Iradian and Boban Markovic 3:00 pm 3:30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 4:30 pm SESSION 17: ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS Participants 4:30 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 18: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days main takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going forward? Garbis Iradian, Reza Siregar MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA 5

6 SPEAKERS PROFILE Wolfgang Engel, General Manager and Chief Representative, IIF MENA Office Wolfgang Engel leads the IIF efforts to establish and strengthen relationships with members in the Middle East Africa, to identify and address their most important issues from their perspective, and to increase engagement with the official sector. Before joining IIF, Wolfgang Engel was a member of the Management Committee at Société Générale in charge of the Financial Institutions Group Germany and Austria. From 1998 to 2005, Wolfgang Engel held a number of positions at BNP Paribas, including Head of the Debt Capital Markets Europe in London, Head of Institutional Clients Coverage Group for Germany and Austria and Head of Corporate Banking Division in Germany, among other roles. Chief Economist, MENA, IIF, Former IMF Advisor Garbis Iradian has more than 28 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Department at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies. Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany. He has published several articles and working papers on MENA and Central Asian Economies. Dr. Mazen Soueif, Council of Economic Advisors to Lebanese PM, Saad Hariri Mazen Soueid is a member of the Council of Economic Advisors to Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. He is also the chairman of the productive sectors committee at the Lebanese Social and Economic Council. Dr. Mazen Soueid worked as an Economist/Senior Economist at Deutsche Bank New York and London from , and then at the IMF in Washington DC from , and as Chief Economist at Bankmed in Lebanon from He holds a PHD in Economics from Brown University and a BA in Economics from the American University of Beirut (AUB), where he currently lectures. He is a frequent contributor to news programs and an author of best-seller on the Lebanese economy. Dr. Reza Siregar, Head of ASEAN India Research, IIF-Singapore Office Reza comes from the International Monetary Fund where he was an International Economist Consultant in their Singapore Regional Training Institute. Prior to this, he was an Executive Director and Chief ASEAN Economist for Global Macro Research at Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. He has also held a variety of other positions at the IMF, the ADB, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, the SEACEN Center, and in academia at the Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, and at the School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia. Boban Markovic, Senior Analyst, MENA, IIF Boban Markovic is a senior analyst at IIF, covering the Middle East region with a special focus on GCC countries. Prior to joining IIF he worked at Delos Asset Management, Cayman Islands based hedge fund, and served as the representative to the Board of Trustees at American University in Bulgaria. Markovic holds Master in International Relations and Economics from the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies. He received undergraduate degree as a Presidential Medalist, Magna Cum Laude, from American University in Bulgaria with a double major in Political Science and Business Administration. 6 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING WITH A FOCUS ON MENA

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