Workshop: Compiling and forecasting gross domestic product October Suva, Fiji

Transcription

1 Workshop: Compiling and forecasting gross domestic product October 2016 Suva, Fiji Workshop description Gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the output produced in a country, is a key macroeconomic statistic. GDP is used by lenders as an indicator of a country s ability to repay its debt and it can determine how much and at what terms countries can borrow to finance essential infrastructure for economic development and improved living standards. GDP estimates and forecasts are also important for sound macroeconomic management and monetary and fiscal policy because GDP underlies the forecasts of inflationary pressures, the balance of payments and tax revenue collections. The purpose of this workshop is to enhance the quality of the measurement of GDP and GDP forecasts through knowledge sharing on the compilation and uses of GDP. This five-day workshop will bring together national accountants from the statistics offices, who are responsible for compiling official GDP estimates, and key users of GDP from the tax administrations, the ministries of finance / treasury / economy and the central banks of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu. The workshop will focus on three main questions: How can we improve the methodologies used to compile gross domestic product? How can we enhance GDP estimates for policy analysis and forecasting? How can we enhance GDP forecasts? Participants will be expected to actively partake in the workshop by giving presentations and contributing to group discussions and exercises. PFTAC is able to fund the participation of five delegates from each country, two from the statistics office, one from the ministry of finance / treasury / economy, one from the tax office, and one from the central bank. Additional participants are welcome to join at their own expense.

2 Monday 17 October 9:00-9:15 Welcome 9:15-9:45 Introductions and outline of workshop Iris/Rich 9:45-10:30 Country presentation Vanuatu 10:45-11:30 Country presentation Tonga 11:30-12:15 Country presentation Solomon Islands 12:15-1:00 Lunch 1:15-2:00 Country presentation Samoa 2:00-2:45 Country presentation Papua New Guinea 2:45-3:30 Country presentation Fiji 3:45-4:45 Breakout session: key challenges All 6:30-8:30 Dinner (Five Princes Hotel) Tuesday 18 October 9:00-10:30 Compilation of GDP by production Rich 10:45-11:30 Compilation of GDP by expenditure Rich 11:30-12:30 Group discussions and report back All 12:30-1:00 GDP and macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts Iris

3 2:00-2:30 Forecasting GDP using a composite index Reserve Bank of Vanuatu 2:45-3:30 Group discussions All 3:45-4:45 Group discussions and report back All Wednesday 19 October 9:00-10:30 Rebasing GDP Rich 10:45-11:15 Forecasting GDP in Fiji Reserve Bank of Fiji 11:15-11:45 Forecasting GDP in Tonga Ministry of Finance and National Planning 11:45-12:30 Group discussions and report back All 12:30-1:00 GDP and monetary and fiscal policy Iris 2:00-2:30 Estimating potential output Central Bank of Solomon Islands 2:45-3:30 Group discussions All 3:45-4:45 Group discussions and report back All

4 Thursday 20 October 9:00-10:30 Measuring the informal sector Rich 10:45-11:15 Economic activity questionnaire Bank of Papua New Guinea 11:15-11:45 Business sentiment survey Vanuatu 11:45-1:00 Group discussions and report back 2:00-3:30 Group discussions and report back All 3:45-4:45 Preparation of country presentations All Friday 21 October 9:00-10:00 Using administrative data in GDP Rich 10:00-10:30 Independence of the statistics office Samoa 10:45-12:30 Country presentations All 12:30-1:00 Certificates

5 Notes: The purpose of the presentations by participants on the first day is to give an overview of GDP compilation and forecasting in their countries. There is no prescribed format for the presentations. Participants from the statistics office, the ministry of finance / treasury / economy, the tax office, and the central bank can present together or have separate presentations but the time limit of 45 minutes should not be exceeded. Participants may wish to share a summary of their presentations in the form of Powerpoint slides or a short note with workshop participants. Some potential questions to cover in the presentation are: Who is responsible for compiling GDP in your country? At what frequency is GDP produced? Annual, quarterly? On what basis is GDP reported? Production, expenditure, income? Constant and current prices? For how many years / quarters is GDP revised? How often is GDP rebased? How far back are historical data rebased? Is there a media release when GDP is published? How are GDP data / releases disseminated? On the statistics office website? Historical and current data? In Excel tables? What are the main data sources to compile GDP? Surveys? Administrative data? Is the statistics office an independent department / office or part of another office / department? What are the main economic sectors in your country? E.g. tourism, agriculture, natural resource extraction. How much do the main sectors contribute to total GDP? Production and expenditure GDP. What does your country import? What does your country export? How large are imports and exports as a percent of total GDP? What are the economic conditions in your country? What sectors are contributing to the current economic expansion / slowdown? E.g. trading partner growth is slowing / accelerating; weather conditions / commodity prices are affecting output; the government is reducing investment and its work force. Who produces GDP forecasts in your country? How are the forecasts produced? Which sectors are difficult to forecast? Why? Who uses GDP forecasts?