Asia-Pacific Countries with Special Needs Development Report Investing in Infrastructure for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future

Transcription

1 Asia-Pacific Countries with Special Needs Development Report 2017 Investing in Infrastructure for an Inclusive and Sustainable Future Manila, 30 August 2017

2 Countries with special needs Countries with special needs (CSN) Least developed country (LDC) Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar Landlocked developing country (LLDC) Lao PDR Small island developing State (SIDS) CSN face unique challenges LDC: limited productive capacity, high poverty rate LLDC: limited access to markets SIDS: small market scale, natural disaster risks

3 CSN Development Report 2017 Investing in infrastructure for an inclusive and sustainable future Report structure Chapter 1: The current state of infrastructure Chapter 2: Potential economic impact of infrastructure Chapter 3: Possible financing sources Focusing on 4 types of physical infrastructure Transport Energy ICT Water supply and sanitation

4 Chapter 1 Current state of physical infrastructure in countries with special needs

5 Transport infrastructure Road density (km per 1,000 km 2 of land area), Non-CSN Rail density (km per 1,000 km 2 of land area), Non-CSN Bangladesh Samoa Azerbaijan Tonga Micronesia Maldives Bhutan Armenia Cambodia Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Lao PDR Fiji Nepal Turkmenistan Vanuatu Afghanistan Myanmar Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea Kazakhstan Mongolia Armenia Fiji Azerbaijan Bangladesh Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Myanmar Tajikistan Cambodia Kyrgyzstan Mongolia Nepal Afghanistan Lao PDR Bhutan Maldives Micronesia Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Vanuatu

6 Energy infrastructure Access to electricity (% of population, ) Non-CSN Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Samoa Maldives Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Armenia Tonga Mongolia Nepal Bhutan Lao PDR Bangladesh Palau New Caledonia Micronesia Marshall Islands Kiribati Guam French Polynesia Fiji American Samoa Myanmar Tuvalu Afghanistan Timor-Leste Cambodia Vanautu Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea Electric power consumption (kwh per capita), Non-CSN Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Bhutan Azerbaijan Mongolia Micronesia Kyrgyzstan Armenia Tajikistan Uzbekistan Maldives Fiji Samoa Lao PDR Papua New Guinea Tonga Bangladesh Cambodia Vanuatu Myanmar Solomon Islands Afghanistan Nepal

7 ICT infrastructure Telephone communication subscriptions per 100 population, Non-CSN Internet users per 100 inhabitants, Non-CSN Kazakhstan Maldives Turkmenistan Papua New Guinea Cambodia Kyrgyzstan Armenia Azerbaijan Mongolia Fiji Nepal Tajikistan Lao PDR Tonga Uzbekistan Bhutan Solomon Islands Bangladesh Vanuatu Samoa Afghanistan Micronesia Myanmar Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Armenia Maldives Fiji Tonga Uzbekistan Bhutan Micronesia Kyrgyzstan Samoa Mongolia Tajikistan Vanuatu Nepal Lao PDR Cambodia Turkmenistan Myanmar Bangladesh Solomon Islands Afghanistan Papua New Guinea

8 Water supply and sanitation infrastructure Access to improved water supply (left) and sanitation (right) and GDP per capita

9 Chapter 2 ESCAP Access to Physical Infrastructure Index

10 ESCAP Access to Physical Infrastructure Index (APII) APII indicators 8 indicators in total 2 indicators for each of the 4 dimensions of infrastructure: transport, energy, ICT, and water supply and sanitation Country coverage 41 Asia-Pacific countries: 23 CSN, 15 developing countries, and 3 developed countries Methodology Simple average of each of the four sectoral indices based on the standardized indicators Data period:

11 CSN infrastructure gaps remain wide

12 APII scores Country groupings APII score APII rank Country groupings APII score APII rank Countries with special needs Developing countries Kazakhstan Singapore Azerbaijan Korea, Republic of Maldives Malaysia Armenia Russian Federation Fiji Turkey Tonga Georgia Kyrgyzstan Viet Nam Uzbekistan Thailand Samoa Sri Lanka Tajikistan Islamic Republic of Iran Bangladesh China Bhutan Philippines Turkmenistan Pakistan Mongolia Indonesia Micronesia India Lao PDR Nepal Vanuatu Developed countries Myanmar Japan Cambodia New Zealand Solomon Islands Australia Afghanistan Papua New Guinea

13 GDP impact of infrastructure (1): regression analysis A 1% increase in APII scores is associated with a 1.2% GDP increase in CSN

14 Bangladesh Kazakhstan Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Nepal Myanmar and Timor-Leste Azerbaijan Pacific island developing States Afghanistan, Bhutan and Maldives Mongolia Cambodia Armenia Lao PDR Kyrgyzstan Billions of US dollars GDP impact of infrastructure (2): Computable general equilibrium analysis Assuming CSN achieve APII score of 15 developing countries by 2025, and of developed countries by National income of combined CSN could increase by 6% or $134 billion by 2030.

15 Mongolia Bangladesh Nepal Afghanistan, Bhutan and Maldives Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Cambodia Myanmar and Timor-Leste Pacific island developing States Percentage change in real GDP from the base Lao People's Democratic Republic Armenia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan GDP impact of infrastructure (2): Computable general equilibrium analysis

16 Chapter 3 Financing strategies for overcoming infrastructure gaps

17 Current infrastructure financing Sources of finance: Public sector (3-5% of GDP) Private sector (1% of GDP) ODA (0.7% of GDP) MDB (0.7% of GDP) Composition of infrastructure financing sources in CSN Concessional financing and bank loans dominate Other financing instruments (bond and equity) are limited

18 Infrastructure financing needs Annual infrastructure financing needs, Infrastructure financing needs = 10.5% of GDP annually 8.3% of GDP will be required to fill the current infrastructure gap Meet the future demand Cover the cost of maintenance 2.2% of GDP will be required for climate change mitigation

19 Infrastructure financing gaps

20 Filling the funding gap (1): tax collection Tax-to-GDP ratios in selected Asia-Pacific countries, 2014

21 Filling the funding gap (2): private sector engagement Private sector engagement has been limited Political, currency and macroeconomic risks Underdeveloped domestic markets Small scale: market and population size Governments can also Partner with multilateral development banks to increase financial viability Enhance coordination across Government agencies to establish a infrastructure project pipeline Facilitate innovate PPP

22 The way forward Policy messages

23 The way forward Short-term policies Prioritize which sectors are to be developed Identify priorities, partners, instruments and support measures, e.g. detailed budget provision Medium-term policies: Mobilize domestic public finance Develop capital markets Enhance institutional and technical capacity for planning, maintaining and managing infrastructure

24 A holistic policy effort is needed for infrastructure development Most binding challenges for infrastructure development and maintenance 0 Acquiring and transfer of Technology Financial accessibility Technical know-how Development cooperation Institutional capacity Effective governance

25 Thank you 25