Centre Coordinator Report: FY2018 Plans David Kloeden

Transcription

1 Centre Coordinator Report: FY2018 Plans David Kloeden

2 AGENDA OF COORDINATOR S PRESENTATION FY18 PLANS Program focus areas Steps and consultation in preparation of the workplan Planning assumptions Resource allocation Planned training events Planned TA inputs by country Finalization of the workplan

3 Public Financial Management (PFM): FY18 PROGRAM FOCUS AREAS o Implement PFM Reforms based on PFM roadmaps/pefas, with stronger legal frameworks. o Support stronger budget preparation, more integrated planning and budgeting, improved budget transparency and execution, and strengthened debt, asset, and risk management o Help strengthen budget monitoring, reporting, and accountability Revenue Administration o Build stronger core functions in: (1) taxpayer registration; (2) taxpayer services; (3) on-time return filing; (4) timely tax payment and arrears management; and (5) stronger audit capacity o Support better management and governance: (1) reform strategies and frameworks; (2) more effective organization structures; and (3) better compliance and risk management

4 Financial Sector Supervision (FSS): FY18 PROGRAM FOCUS AREAS o Enhance bank supervision frameworks: (1) identify framework strengths/weaknesses; (2) assess institutional infrastructure and staff capacity; (3) assess operational efficiency and supervisory frameworks o Assist review and updating of prudential standards o Support strengthened oversight of non-bank financial institutions Macroeconomics o Ongoing development of integrated macro frameworks tailored to country and capacity specifics o Continue support to multi-period planning facilitating coherent medium-term projections o Build local debt sustainability assessment capacity, factoring in disaster implications

5 Statistics: FY18 PROGRAM FOCUS AREAS o Assist compilation and improvement in National Accounts statistics, focused on: (1) rebasing constant price estimates; (2) developing additional GDP measures; (3) improving methodologies o Assist compilation and improvement in GFS statistics, focused on: (1) adoption of current GFS concepts and definitions; (2) broadening GFS coverage; (3) facilitating integration of GFS data into fiscal and debt sustainability frameworks o Strengthen dissemination of National Accounts and GFS data more widely for policy analysis within government and externally

6 FY18 WORKPLAN: THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Consultation with Member Countries Consistency with Fund priorities (APD, TA Depts.) Ongoing interaction with donors, bilateral projects and forums LTX ongoing interaction with counterparts

7 FY18 WORKPLAN: THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Consultation with Member Countries Consistency with Fund priorities (APD, TA Depts.) Ongoing interaction with donors, bilateral projects and forums LTX ongoing interaction with counterparts FF18 Workplan - 2,577 TA Delivery Days Revenue (inc Legal), 711, FSS, 412, 16% Macro, 211, 8% Statistics, 547, 21% PFM, 696, 27% Macro PFM Statistics FSS Revenue (inc Legal)

8 CAVEATS TO FY18 WORKPLAN IN FY17 ANNUAL REPORT o Timing/Synchronization of PFTAC plan and IMF Resource Allocation Plan (RAP) for FY18 o Launched concurrently, but RAP to be finalized in April, hence PFTAC plan still subject to change o Planning Assumptions: o Budget sufficient for a full annual program of 7 advisors with STX and workshops based on full Phase V financing. All advisor positions staffed without gaps and available for TA delivery. Budgeted TA delivery based on past cost patterns and overheads. While LTX activity is fully planned, accounting of time is limited to mission field days o Gaps/Emerging Changes: o GFS workplan missing, but included in this presentation. Statistics STX costs about to rise, but there may be potential to do more with same budget resources across all programs

9 FY18 WORK PLAN Financial: Budget $6.51 m, 47 % more than estimated FY17 Outturn $4.43 m: Resident Advisors (LTX): budget $2.21 m, 50 % more than est. FY17 outturn of $1.47 m Short-Term Experts (STX): budget $2.0 m, 31 % more than est. FY17 outturn of $1.53 m Travel: budget $0.32 m, same as FY17 outturn of $0.32 m Workshops/seminars: budget $0.9 m, 165 % more than est. FY17 outturn of $0.34 m Other costs: budget $1.08, 37 % more than est. FY17 outturn $0.79m Activity (measured in LTX/STX field person days): Planned 2,577 days, 52 % more than est. FY17 outturn of 1,692 days Of which, PFM: 696 up from 392 (+77%); Revenue (with Legal): 711 days up from 472 (+51%); FSS 412 days, up from 242 (+70%); Statistics 547 days, up from 418 (+31%); Macro 211 days, up from 168 (+26%) 9

10 FY18 WORK PLAN: REGIONAL WORKSHOPS/TRAINING Sector Partner Location When Topic Duration (Days) No Participants Participant Days PFM Fiji Aug-17 Workshop on strengthening budget execution controls PFM Fiji Apr-18 Workshop on fiscal oversight of SOEs Revenue PITAA Fiji VAT Fraud Workshop Revenue PITAA Fiji SMT workshop on modern revenue administration Revenue PITAA Fiji Management training for audit Revenue PITAA Fiji Management training for arrears and returns Revenue PITAA Fiji Interpretation and analysis of Corporate Financial Statements FSS SEACEN Fiji Sep-17 Foundational Bank Supervisor Training FSS Nth Pacific Northern Pacific Sub-Regional Workshop on Banking Legislation & Prudential Standards FSS AFSPC Cook Islands Workshop on Resolution Frameworks and IT Risks FSS Fiji (tbc) Southern Pacific Sub-Regional Workshop on Insurance Supervision Statistics Nth Pacific Compiler Training Macro/Stats Fiji Jul-17 Compiling and Forecasting GDP Macro/PFM SPC and/or UN Fiji Feb-18 Incorporating Demographic Changes into Budget Processes Macro/PFM Nth Pacific Nov-17 Forecasting Fishing Revenues Macro IMF ICD &/or STI Sth Pacific Apr-18 Sub-Regional Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Analysis Totals: 1, LTX/STX days, 15.9 % of FY18 resources, up from 161 LTX/STX days (+154 %) 80 % more events (9 to 16); 96 % more training days (796 to 1,560) 10

11 450 FY18 Plan vs FY17 Outturn (in Person Days) FY2017 Outturn FY2018 Plan

12 FY2018 Workplan by Country and Program 450 Macro 400 PFM 350 Statistics 300 FSS Revenue (inc Legal) 250 Percent 200 Total Regional, 409 Fiji 2 1, 293 Solomon Islands 3 4, 171 Vanuatu 1 2, 263 Kiribati 12 5, 165 Samoa 11 3, 245 Tonga 9 8, 119 PNG 5 6, % Cook Islands 6 9, % RMI 8 7, 159 FSM 10 10, 119 Nauru 4 12, % 150 Timor-Leste 7 14, % Palau 16 11, % 6.2% Tokelau 15 16, 11 Tuvalu 13 13, % % 4.6% Niue 14 15, % 3.3% % 2.1% 2.3% 11.4% 15.9% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0 0.4% 0.0% 12

13 FY18 WORK PLAN BY COUNTRY Major beneficiaries (above 10 percent of resources): 1. Fiji: 293 days planned, up from 183 (#2 FY17), 10.9 % of resources all sectors, but big fiscal program mostly PFM (CoA, SOEs, Fiscal Reporting) and Revenue 2. Vanuatu: 275 days planned, up from 235 (#1 FY17), 10.2 % of resources all sectors, big fiscal and macro program, PFM (internal audit, reporting), Tax/Macro reforms Moderate beneficiaries (5 < 10 percent of resources): 3. Samoa: 261 days, up from 77 (#11 FY17), 9.7% of resources all sectors except FSS, big tax 4. Solomon Islands: 179 days, up from 140 (#3 FY17), 6.7% of resources all but tax, big PFM 5. Kiribati: 165 days, up from 65 (#12 FY17), 6.1% of resources all except Macro, heavy tax 6. PNG: 162 days, up from 114 (#5 FY17), 6.0% of resources all sectors, heavy PFM & FSS 7. RMI: 161 days, up from 100 (#8 FY17), 6.0% of resources all sectors, heavy tax 13

14 FY18 WORK PLAN BY COUNTRY Targeted TA users: 8. Tonga: 123 days, up from 92 (#9 FY17), 4.6% of resources all sectors but FSS, big fiscal 9. Cook Islands: 121 days, up from 101 (#6 FY17), 4.5% of resources no fiscal, big FSS/Stats 10. FSM: 119 days, up from 90 (#10 FY17), 4.4% of resources no macro, big tax and FSS 11. Palau: 87 days, up from 13 (#16 FY17), 3.2% of resources no macro, heavy tax program 12. Nauru: 84 days, down from 117 (#4 FY17), 3.1% of resources just PFM and big statistics 13. Tuvalu : 60 days, up from 51 (#13 FY17), 2.2% of resources FSS, tax and big statistics 14. Timor-Leste: 59 days, down from 100 (#7 FY17), 2.2% of resources just FSS & statistics 15. Niue: 54 days, up from 32 (#14 FY17), 2.0% of resources tax, PFM and statistics 16. Tokelau: 11 days, down from 21 (#15 FY17), 0.4% of resources just PFM 14

15 FINALIZATION OF THE FY18 WORK PLAN While carefully developed with extensive consultation, the presented work plan is subject to change: Process ongoing at IMF Headquarters that could lead to adjustments from reprioritization discussions between Asia Pacific Department and TA Departments Still open to adjustment at the margin following stakeholder feedback, subject to resource constraints and APD and TA Department concurrence If a review of cost and resource assumptions identifies efficiency opportunities, some marginal additional activity may be possible An Updated Workplan incorporating final adjustments will be circulated with June Quarterly Report: Streamlined for enhanced readability, possibly with both country and sector perspectives Refreshed to take account of ongoing RBM developments

16 TO FOLLOW: RESIDENT EXPERT PRESENTATIONS o Public Financial Management Chita Marzan & Richard Neves o Revenue Administration & Policy Stan Shrosbree o Financial Sector Supervision Ben Stefanou o Real Sector Statistics Rich Wild o Government Finance Sector Statistics Barend de la Beer o Macroeconomic Forecasting and Analysis Iris Claus