Money Morning 06 February 2012

Transcription

1 Index Page No. Page No. Macro Economic News 2 Bulk Deals 5 Derivative Corner 3 Insider Trades 5 Event Calendar 4 Volume Shockers 5 Corporate Actions 4 Result Reckoner 6 Board Meetings 4 What they said We are on a knife-edge There is great impatience and pressure not only from the troika but also from euro zone member states..the moment is very crucial. Evangelos Venizelos, Greece Prime Minister. Nifty vs Institutional Movement (`Mn) () (10000) (1) Provisional Figures for Investments Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb 2-Feb 3-Feb Indian Indices % Change Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Sensex 17, Nifty 5, CNX Midcap 7, CNX IT 6, Bankex 10, Auto 9, Metal 11,875 (1.1) FMCG 4, Global Indices % Change Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Shanghai 2, Nikkei 225 8, Straits Times 2, Hang Seng 20, DJIA 12, S&P 500 1, FTSE 5, Dollar Index (0.0) (1.2) Live Markets As on 0730 hours IST Shanghai Nikkei SGX Nifty Hang Seng Current Quote 2,333 8,925 5,389 20,850 % Change 0.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% Volumes Moving Average (Rs bn) 1 Day 5 Day 30 Day BSE CASH NSE CASH NSE F&O FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS) Nifty vs India VIX Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb 2-Feb 3-Feb Nifty Spot (LHS) INDIA VIX (RHS) Institutional Activities (Net) Spot market 1 Day MTD YTD FII (Rs bn) MF (Rs bn) (9.2) (16.0) (33.1) Bond Market Historical Data (%) 1 Day 1M 1 Yr 10Yr Yield (G-Sec) Currency Market % Change Last Close 1day MTD YTD INR/USD INR/EURO INR/GBP Commodities Update Unit Close 1 Day % Change MTD YTD Crude Oil(NYME $/Bbl 97 (0.7) (1.3) (1.7) Gold (OTC) $/Oz 1, (0.1) 10.9 Copper (LME) $/MT 8, Aluminum (LME) $/MT 2, Sugar (LIFFE) $/MT Zinc (LME) $/MT 2, Baltic Dry Index 647 (0.6) (4.9) (62.8) Source: Bloomberg Page No: 1

2 Macro Economic and Other News India s forex reserve rise by $673.4 mn India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $673.4 mn to $ bn for the week ended Jan 27, mainly due to strong rally in the local equities and rebound in the value of rupee against dollar. International News Euro Zone retail sales unexpectedly declined in Dec 11 European retail sales fell 0.4% in Dec 11, led by Germany and France, as unemployment at a 14-year high and govt. spending cuts sapped consumer demand. U.S. adds jobs in January U.S. economy surprised by creating 243K jobs in Jan 12 with unemployment rate dropped to 8.3% from 8.5%, lowest level since Feb 09. The economy has now added jobs for 15-straight quarters. Canada Jobless rate rises to 7.6% Canada s unemployment rate rose to 9-months high to 7.6% as employment increased 2300 in Jan 12 as the trend of sluggish job creation that began in the second half of last year continued. Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg Page No: 2

3 Nifty Grid % Change in Price Short Covering < 2 SUNPHARMA DLF ONGC BHEL NTPC IDFC HINDUNILVR KOTAKBANK HDFCBANK SIEMENS AXISBANK JPASSOCIAT DRREDDY Long Built Up Daily Price Change (%) 1 0 GAIL RPOWER AMBUJACEM TCS RELIANCE MARUTI ITC CAIRN WIPRO BHARTIARTL HEROMOTOCO BAJAJ-AUTO SUZLON ACC POWERGRID ICICIBANK TATAPOWER RELINFRA RELCAPITAL HDFC PNB SBIN CIPLA INFY SAIL M&M BPCL (1) TATASTEEL STER RANBAXY LT SESAGOA (2) HCLTECH Profit Booking/ long Unwinding < HINDALCO JINDALSTEL RCOM < > Daily % Change in Open Interest* (Futures Current month) Short Built Up Note: Summation of three series of future Nifty open interest built up (Current expiry) FII Deri Watch (1000) (2000) (3000) (4000) () (6000) (7000) (8000) 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb 2-Feb 3-Feb Put OI Call OI FII FUT B/S FII FUT OI Nifty Spot Page No: 3

4 Event Calendar Economy Friday 03 Feb Monday 06 Feb Tuesday 07 Feb Wednesday 08 Feb Thursday 09 Feb Domestic Markit Manufacturing FY12 Annual GDP Govt. PMI Jan (Actual 58.0, Estimate Prior 54.2) Global China: Non- Australia: Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) Australia: RBA Cash Target Japan: Trade Balance - Japan: Machine Orders manufacturing PMI Jan Dec (Actual -0.1%, Exp 0.20%, (Exp 4.0%, Prior 4.25%) BOP Basis Dec (Exp - (MoM) Dec (Exp -5.00%, (Actual 52.9, Prior 56) Prior 0.01%) Germany: Industrial 135.0B, Prior B) Prior 14.80%) China: HSBC Services Australia: Retail Sales Ex inflation Production MoM (sa) Dec US: MBA Mortgage Japan: Machine Orders PMI Jan (Actual 52.5, (QoQ) 4Q (Actual 0.4%, Exp (Exp 0.0%, Prior -0.60%) Applications (Prior - YoY Dec (Exp 8.50%, Prior Prior 52.5) 0.60%, Prior 0.6%) Germany: Industrial Prod. 2.90%) 12.50%) Euro Zone: PMI Brazil: Central Bank Weekly YoY (nsa wda) Dec (Exp South Korea: 7-Day Repo Composite Jan F (Actual Economists Survey 4.40%, Prior 3.60%) Rate (Exp 3.25%, Prior 50.4, Exp 50.4, Prior 3.25%) 50.4) China: PPI (YoY) Jan (Exp Euro Zone: Retail Sales 0.70%, Prior 1.70%) (MoM) Dec (Actual - China: CPI (YoY) Jan (Exp 0.4%, Exp 0.3%, Prior %, Prior 4.10%) 0.4%) UK: BOE Asset Purchase (YoY) Dec (Actual - Target Feb (Exp 325B, 1.6%, Exp -1.3%, Prior - Prior 275B) 1.5%) UK: BOE Rate Meet (Exp US: Change in Nonfarm 0.50%, Prior 0.50%) Payrolls Jan (Actual Euro Zone: ECB Interest 243K, Exp 140K, Prior Rates (Exp 1.0%, Prior 203K) 1.0%) US: Unemployment Rate US: Initial Jobless Claims Jan (Actual 8.3%, Exp (Prior 367K) 8.5%, Prior 8.5%) US: Continuing Claims US: ISM Non-Manf. (Prior 3437K) Composite Jan (Actual 56.8, Exp 53.2, Prior 52.6) Source: Bloomberg Corporate Actions Ex Date Company Purpose 07-Feb 08-Feb 09-Feb 09-Feb 09-Feb IPCA Laboratories Limited Power Finance Corporation Limited Financial Technologies (India) Limited IDBI Bank Limited NMDC Limited 2Nd Interim Dividend Re.1/- Per Share (Purpose Revised) Interim Dividend 3rd Interim Dividend Interim Dividend Rs.2/- Per Share 2nd Interim Dividend Re.1/- Per Share 09-Feb BF Utilities Limited Annual General Meeting 10-Feb VIP Industries Limited Interim Dividend Board Meetings Date Company Results Dividend 06-Feb Adani Power Limited 06-Feb Dena Bank 06-Feb Bajaj Electricals Limited 06-Feb Hindustan Unilever Limited 06-Feb The India Cements Limited 07-Feb Career Point Limited 07-Feb Arss Infrastructure Projects Limited 07-Feb Cadila Healthcare Limited 07-Feb Icra Limited 07-Feb United Breweries Limited 07-Feb Mahindra & Mahindra Limited Page No: 4

5 Bulk Deal Company Acquirer Qty Price Seller Qty Price Sintex Industries Ltd. Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte N.A. Deccan Cements Ltd K2 Family Private Trust Videocon Indusrties Ltd Discovery Wealth Management Services Dr Agarwals-$ Amit Goel Private Limited Icsa (India) Limited N.A. Ifci Ltd N.A. = Not Available Source: BSE & NSE Insiders Trades * Company Acquirer/Seller Bought/Sold Qty Adf Foods Ltd H J Thakkar Property Investment Ltd B Bajaj Holdings & Invst Ltd Bachhraj & Co Pvt Ltd B Consolidated Con Cons. Ltd R Sarabeswar (Chairman & CEO) B Dr Reddys Laboratories Ltd G V Prasad (Vice Chairman & CEO) B Geojit BNP Paribas Fin. Ser. Ltd Shiny George B 2 HDFC Ltd D N Ghosh (Director) B IL&FS Invst Managers Ltd Shahzaad Dalal B IL&FS Tran. Networks Ltd Mukund sapre (Executive Director) B Sterling Hol. Res India Ltd M Balasubramaniyan (Company Secretary) B Tata Steel Ltd Tata Sons Ltd B Zee Enter. Ente Ltd Essel Business Processes Ltd B Source: BSE & Capitaline Note: The above insiders Trades might include ESOPs conversion. * The above trades are historical and as reported to the BSE exchange yesterday. Price Shockers Gainers Losers Company Close price (`) Change Price (`) Change Price (%) Company Close price (`) Change Price (`) Change Price (%) Bajaj Finserv Reliance Comm 93.7 (3.2) (3.3) TATAGLOBAL Hindalco Inds (4.9) (3.1) CESC Hindustan Copp (9.3) (3.0) Sintex Inds Financial Tech (22.8) (2.9) JSW Ispat Jindal Steel (15.2) (2.7) Marico ADANI POWER 80.5 (2.0) (2.4) Neyveli Lignite MMTC (19.3) (2.2) IDFC Redington India 78.3 (1.8) (2.2) Wockhardt Idea Cellular 93.8 (2.1) (2.1) Piramal Health Union Bank (4.9) (2.1) Jain Irrigation Tech Mahindra (13.5) (2.0) JUBL FOOD TTK Prestige 2,285.0 (40.9) (1.8) Biocon Motherson Sumi (2.8) (1.8) Engineers India Ashok Leyland 26.4 (0.5) (1.7) Aurobindo Phar Havells India (8.4) (1.7) Source: BSE Page No: 5

6 Result Reckoner EBITDA Sales Dec 11E Sales Dec 10 Date Company Dec 11E PAT Dec 11E PAT Dec 10 YoY % (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) YoY % (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) 6-Feb HUL 58, , % 8, , , % 6-Feb Nat. Alm 16, , % 1, , , % 6-Feb Adani Port 6, , % 4, , , % 6-Feb BGR Energy 10, , % 1, % 6-Feb GSK Consum. 6, , % % 6-Feb Bajaj Electrical 8, , % % Page No: 6

7 Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral Head of Research Head Derivatives Desk Fundamental Team Avinash Nahata Head of Fundamental Desk Akhil Jain Metals & Mining Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement Sumit Jatia Banking & Finance Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate Dinesh Kumar Information Technology/Auto Pradeep Parkar Database/Production Quantitative Team Rizwan Khan Technical and Derivative Strategist Jyoti Nangrani Sr. Technical Analyst Raghuram Technical Analyst Rahul Tendolkar Derivatives Analyst Amit Somani Derivative Analyst Advisory Support Indranil Dutta Advisory Desk HNI Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk Sandeep Pandey Advisory Desk ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR Page No: 7

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