Money Morning 09 October 2012

Transcription

1 Index Page No. Page No. Corporate News 2 Board Meetings 4 Macro Economic News 2 Bulk Deals 5 Derivative Corner 3 Volume Shockers 5 Event Calendar 4 Corporate Actions 4 Indian Indices % Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Sensex 18,79 (1.2) (.3) 21.1 Nifty 5,676 (1.2) (.5) 22.7 CNX Midcap 7,886 (.6) CNX IT 6,28 (1.3) (1.7) 1.1 Bankex 11,362 (1.3) (.8) 42.6 Auto 1,361 (1.3) (.5) 27.2 Metal 1,499 (1.) (.3) 13. FMCG 5,638 (.) Nifty vs Institutional Movement (` Mn) Provisional Figures for Investments (1) (2) 28-Sep 1-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 8-Oct MF (LHS) FII (LHS) Nifty (RHS) Nifty vs India VIX Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 1-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 8-Oct Nifty Spot (LHS) INDIA VIX (RHS) Global Indices % Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Shanghai 2, (4.2) Nikkei 225 8,863.1 (.4) 4.4 Straits Times 3,77 (.8) Hang Seng 2, DJIA 13,584 (.2) S&P 5 1,456 (.3) FTSE 5,842 (.5) Dollar Index 8. (.5) (.8) Live Markets As on 73 hours IST Shanghai Nikkei SGX Nifty Hang Seng Current Quote 2,18 8,831 5,73 21,63 % 1.6% (.4%).6% 1.1% Volumes Moving Average (Rs bn) 1 Day 5 Day 3 Day BSE CASH NSE CASH NSE F&O Institutional Activities (Net) Spot market 1 Day MTD YTD FII (Rs bn) MF (Rs bn) (7.8) (29.3) (161.3) Bond Market Historical Data (%) 1 Day 1M 1 Yr 1Yr Yield (G-Sec) Currency Market % Last Close 1day MTD YTD INR/USD (1.5).4.8 INR/EURO (1.).3.9 INR/GBP (.6) 1.4 (2.4) Commodities Update Unit Close 1 Day % MTD YTD Crude Oil(NYME $/Bbl 9.9 (2.2) (8.8) Gold (OTC) $/Oz 1, Copper (LME) $/MT 8,181 (1.4) (.4) 7.8 Aluminum (LME) $/MT 2,53 (1.5) (1.5) 2.9 Sugar (LIFFE) $/MT 595 (.4) 3.6 (1.2) Zinc (LME) $/MT 2,34 (2.) (3.) 1.2 Baltic Dry Index (49.2) Source: Bloomberg Page No: 1

2 Corporate News/Results Corner EGoM propses one-time licence fee for telcos: positive in short to medium term for Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communication. The empowered group of ministers (EGoM) on telecom headed by Finance Minister P Chidambaram have decided to impose a one-time fee on incumbent operators prospectively for spectrum beyond 4.4 MHz in GSM and 2.5 MHz in CDMA. The decision is a rejection of the opinion of the Attorney General of India, who had said a one-time charge should be levied on spectrum beyond 6.2 MHz but retrospectively from July 28. Telecom companies including Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular and Reliance Communications and others, will have to fork out Rs ~275.2bn to the government. The fee is applicable prospectively and hence positive for telecom companies like Bharti Airtel & Reliance Communication. Macro Economic and Other News IMF cuts India growth forecast to 4.9% Indian growth may weaken to a decade-low this year after investment stalled, the IMF said as it called for interest rates to remain unchanged until the nation s high inflation rate eases. GDP will rise 4.9% in 212, less than July forecast of 6.1% International News IMF cuts its global growth forecast The IMF cut its global growth forecasts (3.3% this year compared with 3.5% earlier prediction) as the euro area s debt crisis intensifies and warned of even slower expansion unless officials in the U.S. and Europe address threats to their economies. India risks sharp slowdown without further reforms: FM IMF: Most advanced nation making progress reducing deficit Delivering a grim warning that India risks a sharp slowdown without Fiscal shortfalls in advance economies will narrow to an average of further reforms, FM P Chidambaram has vowed that the pace of 5.9% of GDP this year and 4.9% in 213 from 6.6% in 211, the IMF reforms will remain "strong and unabated" as he promised a credible predicted in its semi-annual Fiscal Monitor report. plan for the economy's fiscal consolidation. Europe salutes Greek budget-cutting will European finance ministers hailed Greece s determination to cut the budget and reshape its recession-wracked economy, raising the chances that aid will keep following to stop the country from careening out of the euro. Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg Page No: 2

3 Nifty Grid % in Price Short Covering < 2 SUNPHARMA Long Built Up 1 CAIRN ASIANPAINT BHARTIARTL ULTRACEMCO BAJAJ-AUTO CIPLA ITC NTPC POWERGRID DRREDDY JINDALSTEL Profit Booking/ long Unwinding Daily Price (%) (1) (2) < AMBUJACEM JPASSOCIAT GAIL HDFC HDFCBANK HINDUNILVR M&M RANBAXY SESAGOA\ AXISBANK GRASIM HEROMOTOCO ICICIBANK INFY KOTAKBANK BANKBARODA BHEL LT TATAMOTORS WIPRO BPCL LUPIN MARUTI TATASTEEL ACC COALINDIA ONGC TCS HCLTECH HINDALCO IDFC PNB SBIN SIEMENS TATAPOWER RELINFRA DLF RELIANCE < > Daily % in Open Interest* (Futures Current month) Short Built Up Note: Summation of three series of future Nifty open interest built up (Current expiry) FII Deri Watch (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) 25-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 1-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 8-Oct Put OI Call OI FII FUT B/S FII FUT OI CHNG Nifty Spot Page No: 3

4 Event Calendar Economy Monday 8 Oct Tuesday 9 Oct Wednesday 1 Oct Thursday 11 Oct Friday 12 Oct Domestic IIP YoY Aug (Prior.1%) China: HSBC Services Global PMI Sep (Actual 54.3, Prior 52) Germany: Ind Prod MoM (Sa) Aug (Actual -.5%, Exp -.6%, Prior 1.2%) YoY (nsa wda) Aug (Actual -1.4%, Exp - 1.6%, Prior -1.3%) Source: Bloomberg Japan: Trade Balance - BOP Basis Aug (Actual B, Exp B, Prior B) UK: Industrial Production (MoM) Aug (Exp -.5%, Prior 2.9%) UK: Industrial Production (YoY) Aug (Exp -1.1%, Prior -.8%) US: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Oct (Exp 5., Prior 51.8) Japan: Machine Tool Orders (YoY) Sep P (Prior -2.7%) US: MBA Mortgage App. (Prior 16.6%) US: Wholesale Inventories Aug (Exp.4%, Prior.7%) US: Fed's Beige Book Germany: WPI MoM) Sep (Prior 1.1%) Germany: WPI (YoY) Sep (Prior 3.1%) Japan: Machine Orders (MoM) Aug (Exp -2.3%, Prior 4.6%) Japan: Machine Orders YoY Aug (Exp -4.6%, Prior 1.7%) Australia: Unemployment Rate Sep (Exp 5.3%, Prior 5.1%) South Korea: 7-Day Repo Rate (Exp 2.75%, Prior 3.%) Germany: CPI (MoM) Sep F (Exp.%, Prior.%) Germany: CPI (YoY) Sep F (Exp 2.%, Prior 2.%) France: CPI (MoM) Sep (Exp.1%, Prior.7%) France: CPI (YoY) Sep (Exp 2.3%, Prior 2.1%) Spain: CPI (MoM) Sep (Exp 1.1%, Prior.6%) Spain: CPI (YoY) Sep F (Exp 3.5%, Prior 3.5%) Euro Zone: ECB Publishes Oct. Monthly Report US: Trade Balance Aug (Exp -$44.B, Prior -$42.B) US: Initial Jobless Claims (Exp 37K, Prior 367K) US: Continuing Claims (Exp 3273K, Prior 3281K) China: Money Supply - M2 (YoY) Sep (Exp 13.6%, Prior 13.5%) Euro Zone: Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) Aug (Exp -.5%, Prior.5%) Euro Zone: Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) Aug (Exp - 4.1%, Prior -2.4%) US: PPI (MoM) Sep (Exp.7%, Prior 1.7%) US: PPI (YoY) Sep (Exp 1.7%, Prior 2.%) US: U. of Michigan Confidence Oct P (Exp 77.8, Prior 78.3) Corporate Actions Ex Date Company Purpose 17-Oct Simbhaoli Sugars Limited Annual General Meeting 18-Oct Infosys Limited Interim Dividend 19-Oct HCL Technologies Limited Dividend Rs 4 Per Share 29-Oct The Orissa Minerals Face Value Split From Rs.1/- To Development Re.1/- Company Limited Board Meetings Date Company Results Dividend 1-Oct IndusInd Bank Limited 11-Oct Sintex Industries Limited 12-Oct HDFC Bank Limited 12-Oct Infosys Limited 15-Oct Axis Bank Limited 16-Oct MindTree Limited 16-Oct Shree Cements Limited 22-Oct HDFC Limited Page No: 4

5 Bulk Deal Company Acquirer Qty Price Seller Qty Price Tulip Telecom Limited N.A. - - Ecl Finance Limited N.A. = Not Available Source: BSE & NSE Price Shockers Gainers Losers Company Close price (`) Price (`) Price (%) Company Close price (`) Price (`) Price (%) NHPC DLF (17.5) (7.2) Sun Pharma United Spirits 1,181.9 (79.2) (6.3) Aurobindo Phar Bajaj Finserv 86.4 (54.3) (5.9) Idea Cellular Pantaloon Retl 24.1 (1.6) (4.9) IFCI RIL (38.7) (4.5) TATAGLOBAL Reliance Infra (23.5) (4.3) IPCA Lab Apollo Tyres 86.4 (3.3) (3.7) Canara Bank Crompton Greav (5.1) (3.7) Havells India Indian Bank 185. (7.) (3.7) Muthoot Fin Hindalco Inds 12.6 (4.4) (3.5) Apollo Hosp BHEL (9.1) (3.4) Cadila Health Adani Ports (4.4) (3.4) Reliance Comm Adani Enter 227. (7.9) (3.4) Strides Arco Jaiprakash Asso 85.8 (2.9) (3.3) Gitanjali Gems Mangalore Ref 66.3 (2.2) (3.1) Source: BSE Page No: 5

6 Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral Head of Research Head Derivatives Desk Fundamental Team Avinash Nahata Head of Fundamental Desk Akhil Jain Metals & Mining/Mid Caps Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps Sumit Jatia Banking & Finance Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate Dinesh Kumar Information Technology/Auto Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst Quantitative Team Rizwan Khan Technical and Derivative Strategist Jyoti Nangrani Sr. Technical Analyst Raghuram Technical Analyst Rahul Tendolkar Derivatives Analyst Amit Somani Derivative Analyst Advisory Support Indranil Dutta Advisory Desk HNI Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk Sandeep Pandey Advisory Desk ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR Page No: 6

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