Money Morning 04 February 2013

Transcription

1 Index Page No. Page No. Corporate News 2 Board Meetings 4 Macro Economic News 2 Bulk Deals 5 Derivative Corner 3 Price Shockers 5 Event Calendar 4 Corporate Actions 4 Indian Indices Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Sensex 19,781 (.6) (.6) 1.8 Nifty 5,999 (.6) (.6) 1.6 CNX Midcap 8,357 (.1) (.1) (1.7) CNX IT 6,753 (.4) (.4) 12.1 Bankex 12,66 (.8) (.8) 1.1 Auto 1,886 (1.) (1.) (4.7) Metal 1,524 (.8) (.8) (4.9) FMCG 5, Nifty vs Institutional Movement (` Mn) Provisional Figures for Investments (5) (1) 5999 (15) 25-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 3-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS) Nifty vs India VIX Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 3-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb Nifty Spot (LHS) INDIA VIX (RHS) Global Indices Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Shanghai 2, Nikkei , Straits Times 3, Hang Seng 23, DJIA 14, S&P 5 1, FTSE 6, Dollar Index (.7) Live Markets As on 73 hours IST Shanghai Nikkei SGX Nifty Hang Seng Current Quote 2,424 11,245 6,47 23,835.2%.5%.1%.5% Volumes Moving Average (Rs bn) 1 Day 5 Day 3 Day BSE CASH NSE CASH NSE F&O Institutional Activities (Net) Spot market 1 Day MTD YTD FII (Rs bn) MF (Rs bn) (1.9) (1.9) (77.6) Bond Market Historical Data (%) 1 Day 1M 1 Yr 1Yr Yield (G-Sec) Currency Market Last Close 1day MTD YTD INR/USD INR/EURO 72.6 (.7) (.7) (.1) INR/GBP (.2) (.2) 5.6 Commodities Update Unit Close 1 Day MTD YTD Crude Oil(NYME $/Bbl 98 (.2) Gold (OTC) $/Oz 1, (.2) Copper (LME) $/MT 8, Aluminum (LME) $/MT 2, Sugar (LIFFE) $/MT (4.) Zinc (LME) $/MT 2, Baltic Dry Index 75 (1.3) (1.3) 7.3 Source: Bloomberg 2 nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 4 98 Tel: Page No: 1

2 Corporate News/Results Corner HCC announces 3QFY13 results; Mixed set of results; Hold. HCC s sales increased by 7.2% YoY during 3QFY13 to Rs.1.1bn on the back of higher execution. The company s operating margin contracted by 121bps YoY and 226bps QoQ to 1.7% due to higher construction expenses and declining share of high margin hydro projects. Interest Costs was down by 1.7% YoY to ~Rs.1.4bn mainly due to CDR package which led to lower interest cost. Company reported a loss of ~Rs.4bn as against a loss of ~Rs.1.3bn reported during 3QFY12. Company s order book stands at Rs.146.2bn while it received orders to the tune of Rs.5.1bn during 3QFY13. The results were announced during market hours on Friday and have been factored in. We will revise our estimates and rating post the concall. Macro Economic and Other News RBI may reduce norms that shields bank from bond price changes India s central bank is considering reducing the proportion of lender s bond holdings that is shielded from market fluctuations as it seeks to boost trading in government securities. Banks can hold as much as 25% of their deposits to maturity without valuing them at the latest market prices. International News China s service industries grew fastest since Aug China s service industries grew at the fastest pace since August as gains in retailing and construction aid government efforts to drive a recovery. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 56.2 in January from 56.1 in December. Obama says U.S. needs revenue with spending cuts President Obama said there is no doubt the government needs new revenue from closing tax loopholes and limiting deductions, along with enacting spending cuts, to reduce the federal deficit. U.S. added 157K jobs, unemployment rate rises to 7.9% U.S. payrolls rose 157K in Jan 13 following a revised 196K advance in Dec 12 and a 247K surge in Nov 12. The hiring gains indicated the labor market was making progress even as lawmakers quarrelled over the federal budget at the end of 212. Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg 2 nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 4 98 Tel: Page No: 2

3 Nifty Grid in Price Profit Booking/ long Short Covering Daily Price (%) < 2 BPCL 1 (1) (2) < DLF CIPLA TATAPOWER LUPIN GRASIM RANBAXY CAIRN PNB AMBUJACEM BAJAJ-AUTO SUNPHARMA HCLTECH ITC TCS ASIANPAINT RELIANCE AXISBANK NTPC POWERGRID M&M RELINFRA SBIN BANKBARODA LT KOTAKBANK INFY WIPRO HEROMOTOCO ACC JINDALSTEL SESAGOA IDFC HINDUNILVR SIEMENS ICICIBANK ULTRACEMCO MARUTI DRREDDY COALINDIA HDFCBANK HDFC TATAMOTORS HINDALCO ONGC GAIL TATASTEEL BHEL JPASSOCIAT BHARTIARTL < > Daily in Open Interest* (Futures Current month) Long Built Short Built Up Note: Summation of three series of future Nifty open interest built up (Current expiry) FII Deri Watch (1) (2) (3) (4) 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 3-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb Put OI Call OI FII FUT B/S FII FUT OI CHNG Nifty Spot 2 nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 4 98 Tel: Page No: 3

4 Event Calendar Economy Friday 1 Feb Monday 4 Feb Tuesday 5 Feb Wednesday 6 Feb Thursday 7 Feb Domestic Jan HSBC Mfg. PMI (Actual Jan HSBC Services PMI Advanced Estimates 53.2, Prior 54.7) GDP FY13 (Exp 5.5%) Global Japan: Jobless Rate Dec (Actual 4.2%, Exp 4.1%, Prior 4.1%) Japan: Job-To-Applicant Ratio Dec (Actual.82, Exp.8, Prior.8) China: Mfg. PMI Jan (Actual 5.4, Exp 51, Prior 5.6) China: HSBC Mfg. PMI Jan (Actual 52.3, Exp 52, Prior 51.5) Euro Zone: PMI Mfg. Jan F (Actual 47.9, Exp 47.5, Prior 47.5) Euro Zone: CPI Estimate (YoY) Jan (Actual 2.%, Exp 2.2%, Prior 2.2%) Euro Zone: Unemployment Rate Dec (Actual 11.7%, Exp 11.9%, Prior 11.7%) US: in Non-farm Payrolls Jan (Actual 157K, Exp 165K, Prior 196K) US: Unemployment Rate Jan (Actual 7.9%, Exp 7.8%, Prior 7.8%) US: U. of Michigan Confidence Jan F (Actual 73.8, Exp 71.5, Prior 71.3) US: ISM Mfg. Jan (Actual 53.1, Exp 5.6, Prior 5.2) Source: Bloomberg Euro Zone: PPI (MoM) Dec (Exp -.2%, Prior -.2%) Euro Zone: PPI (YoY) Dec (Exp 2.1%, Prior 2.1%) US: Factory Orders Dec (Exp 2.3%, Prior.%) Australia: Trade Balance Dec (Exp -8M, Prior M) China: HSBC Services PMI Jan (Prior 51.7) Euro Zone: PMI Services Jan F (Exp 48.3, Prior 48.3) Euro Zone: PMI Composite Jan F (Exp 48.2, Prior 48.2) Euro Zone: Retail Sales (MoM) Dec (Exp -.4%, Prior.1%) Euro Zone: Retail Sales (YoY) Dec (Exp -1.3%, Prior -2.6%) US: ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jan (Exp 55.2, Prior 55.7) US: MBA Mortgage App. (Prior -8.1%) Japan: Machine Orders (MoM) Dec (Exp -.9%, Prior 3.9%) Japan: Machine Orders YoY Dec (Exp -4.%, Prior.3%) Australia: Unemployment Rate Jan (Exp 5.5%, Prior 5.4%) UK: BOE Rates (Exp.5%, Prior.5%) UK: BOE Asset Purchase Target Feb (Exp 375B, Prior 375B) Euro Zone: ECB Interest Rates Feb (Exp.75%, Prior.75%) US: Initial Jobless Claims (Exp 36K, Prior 368K) US: Continuing Claims 27-Jan (Prior 3197K) Corporate Actions Ex Date Company Purpose 4-Feb Power Finance Corporation Limited Interim Dividend 4-Feb India Infoline Limited Interim Dividend 5-Feb IDFC Limited Interest Payment Board Meetings Date Company Results Dividend 4-Feb Escorts Limited 4-Feb Bank of Baroda 4-Feb Jain Irrigation Systems Limited 4-Feb Jubilant Foodworks Limited 4-Feb Kingfisher Airlines Limited 4-Feb United Spirits Limited 4-Feb Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited 2 nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 4 98 Tel: Page No: 4

5 Bulk Deal Company Acquirer Qty Price Seller Qty Price Triveni Turbine Limited Dsp Blackrock Investment Managers Pvt Ltd Dhruv Manmohan Sawhney Triveni Turbine Limited L&T Equity Fund Rati Sawhney Speciality Rest Ltd N A - - Hsbc Indian Equity Mother Fund Rei Agro Limited Microsoft Corporation Savings Plus 41(K) Plan Riversource International Aggressive Growth N.A. = Not Available Source: BSE & NSE Price Shockers Gainers Losers Company Close price (`) Price (`) Price (%) Company Close price (`) Price (`) Price (%) Essar Oil Corporation Bank (28.4) (6.2) GMR Infra Tata Motors 285. (13.) (4.4) Pidilite Inds Jaiprakash Asso 83.3 (3.7) (4.2) Videocon Inds Oriental Bank (12.6) (3.8) CESC Mangalore Ref 61.8 (2.3) (3.6) Berger Paints DLF 268. (9.9) (3.6) United Spirits 1, IRB Infra (4.2) (3.4) Indian Oil Corp Dena Bank 17.5 (3.5) (3.2) Cummins India Hexaware Tech 76.8 (2.5) (3.1) BPCL Bharti Airtel 33.5 (8.9) (2.6) HPCL Indiabulls Fin (8.3) (2.5) Suzlon Energy OIL INDIA (13.7) (2.5) United Brew-$ Union Bank (6.4) (2.5) Lanco Infra Allahabad Bank (4.) (2.4) Indian Bank NHPC 28.2 (.7) (2.4) Source: BSE Results Revenue Dec 12E Revenue Dec 11 Date Company EBITDA Dec 12E PAT Dec 12E PAT Dec 11 YoY % (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) YoY % (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) 4-Feb Bank of Baroda* 39, ,48. 5% - 13,18. 12,899. 1% 4-Feb J&K Bank* 7,387. 5, % - 2,64. 2, % 4-Feb Jain Irrg* 8,342. 8,164. 2% 1, Feb Jubilant Foodw* 3,99. 2,77. 41% % 4-Feb REC* 13,734. 1, % - 9, ,695. 2% 4-Feb United Spirits* 22, , % 2, % * Standalone Result Source: Bloomberg 2 nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 4 98 Tel: Page No: 5

6 Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral Head of Research Head Derivatives Desk Fundamental Team Avinash Nahata Head of Fundamental Desk Akhil Jain Metals & Mining/Mid Caps Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps Sumit Jatia Banking & Finance Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate Dinesh Kumar Information Technology/Auto Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst Quantitative Team Jyoti Nangrani Sr. Technical Analyst Raghuram Technical Analyst Amit Somani Derivative Analyst Advisory Support Indranil Dutta Advisory Desk HNI Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk Sandeep Pandey Advisory Desk ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR 2 nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 4 98 Tel: Page No: 6

7 Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither (ABML) nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision., its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions. 2 nd Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 4 98 Tel: Page No: 7