UniCredit International Investors Conference January 2009, Kitzbühel

Transcription

1 UniCredit January 2009, Kitzbühel Gabriele Werzer Head of Investor Relations Erste Group

2 Presentation topics Taking a step back Reflections on our strategy Business focus: retail banking Geographic focus: Central and Eastern Europe Efficiency focus: cost consciousness What can you expect from us in 2009? 2

3 Taking a step back Is our business model still right and working? Consistent but evolving strategy since 1997 IPO Business focus: Retail banking Geographic focus: Central and Eastern Europe Efficiency focus: Cost consciousness Value creation for shareholders and all other stakeholders 3

4 Reflections on our strategy Business focus: retail banking Why does retail make sense? Stable and sustainable business flows Less volatile risk profile Well-diversified customer base No credit excesses in CEE Low per capita indebtedness in CEE Despite strong growth per capita household debt is still insignificant in relation to GDP Per capita mortgage debt is a fraction of GDP and levels in developed Western economies Long-term growth story is intact Slowdown will be temporary phenomenon Unbanked population still sizeable Product penetration comparatively low in EUR thousand in EUR thousand GDP and housing loans in CEE (2007) 12 2 GDP and housing loans in developed markets (2006) Czech R Slovakia Hungary Croatia Romania GDP/Capita 9 Housing loans/capita US Denmark N'lands UK EU-27 GDP/Capita Housing loans/capita 4

5 Reflections on our strategy Geographic focus: Central and Eastern Europe Risk-conscious expansion over the past 10 years Focus on risk/reward: large investments in EU member or accession states Limited exposure to higher risk countries Central and Eastern Europe continues to have the best prospects within Europe Austria Clients: 2.8m Retail loans: 19.6% Retail dep.: n.m. Branches: 993 Czech R Clients: 5.3m Retail loans: 30.0% Retail dep.: 31.9% Branches: 642 Slovakia Clients: 2.6m Retail loans: 24.5% Retail dep.: 29.8% Branches: 272 Hungary Clients: 0.8m Retail loans: 11.6% Retail dep.: 6.2% Branches: 200 Ukraine Clients: 0.1m Retail loans: 1.4% Retail dep.: 0.1% Branches: 119 Croatia Clients: 0.8m Retail loans: 12.0% Retail dep.: 12.0% Branches: 117 Serbia Clients: 0.2m Retail loans: 2.8% Retail dep.: 2.5% Branches: 67 Romania Clients: 4.0m Retail loans: 21.2% Retail dep.: 26.0% Branches: 607 Indirect presence 5

6 Reflections on our strategy Efficiency focus: cost consciousness Quick wins to reduce cost growth in 2008 Headcount and spending freeze in Holding Review forecasts in all entities Review initiatives for possible spending cuts Optimise 2009 budget Increase efficiency in group centre functions Review and prioritise budgeted projects and initiatives Review business models Complete ongoing projects, reduce complexity Align business needs and investments in strategic budgeting for Business needs to drive infrastructure investments Rigid prioritisation and development of traceable business cases Creation of group-wide synergies through increased cooperation Harmonise processes throughout Erste Group 6

7 What can you expect from us in 2009? Responsible business growth Consistent focus on core lending business Sustainable deposit funding underpins asset growth 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 72,262 53% 84,596 86,563 83,747 60% ~63% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 79,888 48% 90, ,403 98,456 53% ~56% 30% 20% 80,419 97, , ,673 30% 20% 72,793 90, , ,964 10% 10% 0% Sep e 0% Sep e Customer loans Other assets Customer deposits Other liabilities 7

8 What can you expect from us in 2009? Focus on sustainable customer business Loan vs deposit development % 114% 113% ~113% 107% 120% in EUR billion % 40% Sep e 0% Loans and advances to customers Customer deposits Loan/deposit ratio 8

9 What can you expect from us in 2009? Focus on guaranteed and/or Pfandbrief issues Funding needs 2009 Expected Funding Structure 2009 Redemptions 3.5 bn Capital (LT2,UT2) 0.5 bn Senior 3 bn Pre-funding already in bn Senior PP 1.2 bn Capital (LT2,UT2) 0.5 bn Guaranteed issues & Pfandbrief 4.3 bn Erste Group issued first state guaranteed bond in Austria EUR 1.5bn have been successfully placed on 16 January 2009 Pfandbrief cover pool amounts to EUR 6bn 9

10 What can you expect from us in 2009? Loan growth and risk cost outlook Main risk cost drivers: Economic slowdown Seasoning of portfolio Product mix (secured/unsecured) Potentially rising unemployment Potential FX-fluctuations Main loan growth drivers Growth will slow down substantially, but continue to be driven by CEE Retail loans expected to grow faster than corporate segment Higher share of local currency business as CHF lending stopped in Hungary and Austria Expected risk cost development for Erste Group (in bps vs average customer loans) % 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 55 Expected customer loan growth for Erste Group 10% 50 21% 43 17% ~76 Includes Iceland ~12% 5-7% 0%

11 What can you expect from us in 2009? Moderate growth, continued profitability Operating profit growth target of 15% for 2008 confirmed New guidance for 2009 reflecting slower growth environment, covering: Operating result growth Operating expense growth P&L risk costs Operating result growth 2008: +15% 2009: about +10% Operating expenses 2009: max +3.5% Risk costs 2009: bps (based on average customer loans) 11

12 Shareholder structure Total number of shares: 317,012,763 By investor By region Austria Verein 5.0% Continental Europe 13.7% Others 2.4% 31.1% UK & Ireland 12.7% Institutional investors 46.1% Employees 3.5% Savings banks 7.3% Private investors 7.0% North America 16.3% Austria 54.9% 12

13 Investor relations contacts Erste Group Bank AG, Graben 21, 1010 Vienna Fax +43 (0) Internet: Reuters: ERST.VI Bloomberg: EBS AV Datastream: O:ERS ISIN: AT Investor relations Gabriele Werzer Tel: +43 (0) Thomas Sommerauer Tel: 43 (0) Peter Makray Tel: +43 (0)