Macroeconomic/Industrial Environment - Supply Chain Scenarios of South Asia - Takayuki Urade

Transcription

1 Macroeconomic/Industrial Environment - Supply Chain Scenarios of South Asia - Takayuki Urade Macroeconomic & Supply Chain Analysis / Demand Forecast Specialist JICA Survey Team

2 Real GDP/GSDP as in 2030 (2012/13 price) High growth potential of the regional economy Source: JICA, Data Collection Survey for Maritime Transport, Industry and Trade in South Asia - Final Report (2014) 2

3 Economic & Industry Development Scenarios 3 cases, driven by trade barriers & world demand, affecting economic/transport/ infrastructure demands, through the development of supply chains Assumptions Tariff cut (within the Region & vis-à-vis the rest of the world) Source: Survey Team Downside Base Upside No change Moderate pace Aggressive Removal of non-tariff barriers (same as above) No change Moderate pace High pace Faster than In line with Slower than Labor cost (within the Region) economic growth economic growth economic growth World demand Slow down Moderate growth Accelerate Channel Development of supply chains (within the Region No change Moderate Fast & vis-à-vis the rest of the world) Outcomes Macroeconomic growth (within the Region) Slow down Moderate growth Accelerate Transport demand (within the Region & vis-à-vis the rest of the world) Slow down Moderate growth Accelerate Infrastructure demand (within the Region) Slow down Moderate growth Accelerate 3

4 GDP Growth Forecast (up to 2030) by Scenario Actual Forecast (Unit: % p.a.) 2009/10-12/ /14-17/ /19-22/ /24-29/30 Base (*1) 2013/14-29/30 Upside (*2) Source: Survey Team (*1) JICA, 'Data Collection Survey for Maritime Transport, Industry and Trade in South Asia - Final Report (2014) (*2) 30% faster than the Base for all countries and regions. (*3) 30% slower than the Base for all countries and regions. Downside (*3) Bangladesh India Pakistan Sri Lanka Base Upside Downside Japan China (including Hong Kong) Korea ASEAN Oceania North America Europe Middle East Africa Others

5 Trade Flows Arrow size for value ($ mn) 50,000 10,000 ~ 30,000 5,000 ~ 10,000 50,000 1,000 ~ 5,000 10,000 ~ 30,000 5, ~ ~ 10,000 1,000 1, Arrow ~ 5,000 color for Arrow color for Cotton / Wool Yarn Cotton Textile / Wool Yarn Garment Textile Garment Supply Chain: Textile & Garment (2012/13 price) Existing functional division may not change much, but Middle East & Africa shall emerge as new markets 2030 Current (Downside) (Upside) (Base) Pipavav Production Circle color for Circle size for value ($ bn) Cotton / Wool ~ Yarn 20 ~ ~ 20 Textile 10 ~ 20 1 ~ 10 Garment 2 ~ 10 Real GDP Growth 8.0% p.a.~ 6.0~8.0% p.a. 4.0~6.0% p.a. 2.0~4.0% p.a. ~2.0% p.a. China (incl.hk) Korea Europe Middle East Africa Tuticorin Japan ASEAN Oceania North America 5

6 Trade Flows Arrow size for value ($ mn) 30,000 3,000 ~ 20,000 1,000 ~ 30,000 3,000 10, ~ 20,000 1,000 2,000~ 10,000 Arrow color for production Arrow color stage for Crude production oil stage Oil-related Crude oil Oil-related products products Supply Chain: Oil & Oil-Related (2012/13 price) The region remains a net importer of crude oil, but refinery capacity will keep expanding in parallel with the economic growth 2030 Current (Downside) (Upside) (Base) Production Circle color for Circle size for value ($ bn) 50 ~ 50 Oil-related 30 ~ 50 products ~ ~ Paradip Real GDP Growth 8.0% p.a.~ 6.0~8.0% p.a. 4.0~6.0% p.a. 2.0~4.0% p.a. ~2.0% p.a. China (incl.hk) Europe Middle East Mumbai New Mangalore Cochin Vishakapatnam Korea Japan ASEAN Oceania Africa North America 6

7 Trade Flows Arrow size for value ($ mn) 1,000 4,000 ~ 500 2,000 ~ 1,000 ~ 4,000 1, ~ 2, Arrow color for Plastic Auto parts Automobile Europe Middle East Supply Chain: Automobile (2012/13 price) Led by the growing demand, full-line clusters will expand in India, and import substitution shall proceed in parts industries across the region 2030 Current (Downside) (Upside) (Base) Mumbai Mumbai Hazira Marmagoa Ennore Ennore Ennore Production Circle color for Circle size for value ($ bn) Plastic Auto parts Automobile Vishakhapatnam Kolkata Kolkata ~ 5 25 ~ 15 ~ 50 1 ~ 5 5 ~ 25 2 ~ 5 Real GDP Growth 8.0% p.a.~ 6.0~8.0% p.a. 4.0~6.0% p.a. 2.0~4.0% p.a. ~2.0% p.a. China (incl.hk) Korea Japan ASEAN Oceania Africa North America 7

8 Supply Chain: Construction Machinery (2012/13 price) Trade Flows Arrow size for value ($ mn) 2, ~ 1,000 4,000 Arrow color for Plastic 1,000 4,000 ~ ~ ~ 2, Parts (*) Construction machinery Production to be more localized on the back of the potentials in infrastructure, construction & mining sectors 2030 Current (Downside) (Upside) (Base) Mumbai Mumbai Hazira Marmagoa Production Circle color for Circle size for value ($ bn) Plastic ~ 5 15 ~ ~ Parts (*) 5 ~ 15 1 ~ 5 Construction 2 ~ 5 machinery Vishakhapatnam Vishakhapatnam Kolkata (*) Include the followings. Body Engine Gear box Gasket Real GDP Growth 8.0% p.a.~ 6.0~8.0% p.a. 4.0~6.0% p.a. 2.0~4.0% p.a. ~2.0% p.a. China (incl.hk) Korea Japan Europe Middle East Cochin ASEAN Oceania Africa Tuticorin North America 8

9 Supply Chain: Machine Tool (2012/13 price) Beyond import substitution, India may explore the potential as a net exporter of commoditized products (*) Include the followings Current (Downside) (Upside) (Base) Trade Flows Production Arrow size for value ($ mn) Circle color for Circle size for value ($ bn) 1,000 4,000 ~ 2, ~ ~ 1,000 4, Plastic 50 ~ 1, ~ 2, ~ ~ 50 1 ~ 5 Arrow color for Parts (*) 10 ~ 25 Machine tools 2 ~ 10 Plastic Parts (*) Machine tools Mumbai Mumbai Hazira Marmagoa Vishakhapatnam Kolkata (*) Include the followings. Tools Spindles Precision parts Electrical & electronic equipment Real GDP Growth 8.0% p.a.~ 6.0~8.0% p.a. 4.0~6.0% p.a. 2.0~4.0% p.a. ~2.0% p.a. China (incl.hk) Korea Japan Europe Middle East Africa ASEAN Oceania North America 9

10 Sector Growth (Import + Export) by Scenario (2012/13 price) Trade flows to expand by 3.7 times for the next 15 years Source: Survey Team 10

11 Major Implications 3 takeaways from the S/C analysis Regional S/C < Global S/C Domestic demand vs. global demand-oriented Shift toward higher value-added products 11