Vietnam Looking Forward
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1 Looking Forward 1
2 in Regional Perspectives Compared to its regional peers, economy, although the smallest in size, is the most dynamic in terms of growth. GDP growth (%) USD 395 Bn USD 194 Bn USD 292 Bn USD 296 Bn USD 862 Bn Ranking 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Global competitiveness (Total 138) Ease of doing business 2017 (Total 190) Logistics Performance Index 2016 (25) (23) (32) (34) (46) (45) (41) (82) (63) (60) (91) (64) (57) (99) (71) 1.0 Inflation (%) Source: The World Bank The international rankings show that is still lagging behind,, and in terms of logistics and ease of doing business. Nonetheless, it has advantages from lower wage, and its proximity to East Asia. Not to mention its tireless effort to develop business-friendly institutional frameworks. With a higher degree of integration to the world economy, the ese economy possesses high growth potential. 2
3 Despite rapid growth, economic benefits do not trickle down to the mass export earnings classified by entities % USD mil 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Foreign Invested Enterprises Domestic Enterprises Source: CEIC compiled by KResearch GINI index in Foreign direct investment has been a key force for exports, (contributing to 63% of the total export revenues in 2015) and economic growth in. Most of foreign businesses use imported raw materials, and are less connected with domestic enterprises. Therefore, local enterprises do not engage in supply chains, despite its growing importance in the global supply chain. The rising of GINI index reflects that economic benefits have been even more concentrated within the top echelon of the society after Economic Reform 3 Source: World Bank
4 Growth momentum can be pushed further through private sector GDP by types of ownership, 2005 and 2015 A more developed country tend to see larger contribution of SMEs 100% Products taxes less subsidies on production* 80% Foreign investment sector 60% 40% Household Private 20% Collective 0% Source: GSO compiled by KResearch State *Note: The difference between producer's prices and basic prices. It reflects the difference between the amount the producer is paid, and the value of the transaction to the producer. State-owned enterprises were once a major player for economic expansion in. may need to promote investment from the domestic private sector to keep rapid economic growth in long term. The private sector, especially SMEs, however, is facing difficulties in financial access. 4
5 USD Million Although is an attractive market, Thai enterprises have not yet made a strong foothold there Thai accumulative outflow investment (TDI) in ASEAN 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Major Sectors in 1. Manufacturing and processing industry 2. Mining and quarrying 3. Wholesale & Retail 4. Financial and insurance activities CLMV sources of import, 2015 Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar 1. (34.6%) 2. China (26.7%) 3. Singapore (6.8%) 1. (68.3%) 2. China (20.9%) 3. South Korea (2.8%) 1. China (43%) 2. (19%) 3. Singapore (11%) 1. China (35%) 2. South Korea (15%) 3. Japan (6.6%) 4. Hong Kong (7.3%) 4. Japan (1.7%) 4. Japan (5%) 4. Singapore (6.4%) Source: BOT compiled by KResearch Average investment value per project (USD mil.) 5. Taiwan (4.8%) 5. Singapore (1.0%) 5. India (4%) 7. (4.6) 18.4 mill USD 9.0 mill USD 13.4 mill USD Despite a rapid expansion in s manufacturing sector, Thai enterprises have not yet integrated into s supply chains because most of Thai investments in mainly focus on labor-intensive goods, agriculture and seafood. Most of Thai investments in are from big companies as the average investment per one project is USD 18.4 million, higher than the average value of one project from South Korea and Japan. Meanwhile, major Thai exports to are final goods which do not integrate into s manufacturing sector; thus, making less involved in its supply chains. 5
6 Opportunities for Trade and Investment s export to 2016 s Export to 2016 Share (%) 100 Total 5.9% Motor cars, parts and accessories 31.6% Unit: % YoY 12.6 Refine fuels -44.7% Polymers of ethylene 0.1% Air conditioning machine 38.5% Fresh, frozen and dried fruit 69.2% Share (%) % -30% 20% 70% s Import from 2016 Total 9.2% Unit: % YoY Electrical household appliances 12.9% Electrical machinery and parts 4.0% Crude oil 12.8% Fresh aquatic animals, chilled, frozen 7.9% Parts and accessories of vehicles 20.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Source: Ministry of Commerce, KResearch As has integrated deeper to the world economy, there are opportunities for Thai investors to join in its supporting industries for machinery sector, E&E, garment and textile as well as agricultural sector. 6
7 7
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