Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equity

Transcription

1 For Trends & Morningstar Investment Summit. Not for onward distribution. Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equity EM Equity: Beyond the Bearish Consensus 9 th March 2016

2 Investment team Experienced managers in an optimal investment environment Highly experienced investment team Simon Pickard Portfolio Manager Jupiter Portfolio manager, Emerging Europe Carmignac Gestion Head of European Equities Argos Manager, European Equities Carmignac Gestion Head of Emerging Markets Man GLG Edward Cole Portfolio Manager JP Morgan, Unicredit/ Raiffeisen Equity strategist, EM Ashmore Portfolio manager, EMEA Newsmith L/S manager Finisterre L/S manager Carmignac Gestion Portfolio Manager, EM Man GLG Key benefits of running the Fund on the GLG platform Independence Complete responsibility for investment process Unconstrained by house view GLG culture embraces both absolutereturn and long-only strategies Collaborative culture Collaboration with over 40 sector or regional specialists based in New York, London, Dubai and Hong Kong Company meetings and broker visits shared across investment teams Real-time internal chat system facilitates idea sharing Risk management and operational infrastructure Independent risk control Systems architecture facilitates sourcing and automation of data Cutting edge proprietary/non proprietary trading systems run by a large team of experienced professionals 2

3 Introduction Key fund characteristics Long equity emerging markets Mid-to-large cap Quality growth at a reasonable price Aim for higher return on capital, better balance sheet and better cash-flow valuation Concentrated and liquid Only one strategy, containing about 50 liquid stocks with low turnover Unconstrained by benchmark Aim for high active share and high tracking error, can hold 10% cash Process consistency Rigorous and consistent process provides a framework for judgment-based joint management Alignment of interest Portfolio managers are significant investors in the Fund 3

4 Portfolio characteristics Valuation and fundamental factors as at 11 February 2016 Portfolio Benchmark* Portfolio Benchmark* ROIC 2014 (%) Net debt (cash) / EBITDA (2014,x) (0.2) 1.4 Net debt (cash) / equity (2014,%) (7.2) 37.6 Liquidity Value Growth FCF yield 12-month fwd (%) Dividend yield 12-month fwd (%) Volatility Momentum P/E 12-month fwd (x) P/B 12-month fwd (x) Size Financial Leverage EV/EBITDA 12-month fwd (x) * MSCI Emerging Markets TR Index Source: FactSet, CLSA. Note: 1) ROIC, net debt to EBITDA, net debt to equity and FCF yield are bottom-up aggregated excluding financials 2) Dividend yield, PE, PB and EV/EBITDA are calculated based on FCF yield, div yield, earnings yield, book yield and EBITDA/EV with portfolio & MSCI EM weight adjusted. The negative numbers for Net debt/ebitda and Net debt/equity implies that the portfolio is in a net cash position.

5 EM - domestic credit/gdp June 1993 to June % Rationale 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Man 2015 Easy monetary conditions globally since 2008 have fuelled growth in leverage, not deleveraging. Emerging economies have been at the forefront of the growth in leverage, with the stock growing by >40% since 2008 Current view The accumulation of leverage is a headwind for EM growth as the growth in global liquidity moderates At a country level, our process rewards economies with lower debt stocks, and the means to finance growth domestically we are significantly more wary of Turkey and Indonesia, where foreigners own 30-40% of local currency debt, than we are China, where domestic savings are profound. At a stock level, our process rewards companies that are self-financing and where balance sheets are clean in aggregate, our portfolio is net cash 5 Source: UBS

6 USD, billions Most capital outflows come from other investment, i.e. debt Breakdown of China s capital and financial account balance Financial derivatives, net -100 Portfolio investment,net Other investment, net -150 Direct investment, net Total capital account Source: Gavekal Data, Macrobond

7 EM banking sector vulnerability Credit/deposit ratio (%) 200% THA 175% EST MEX BRA 150% 125% 100% LIT ROM KAZ HUN BUL SLO KOR RUS ARG UAE INDO TUR EM AVG 2009 CHINA % EM AVG 2015 CHINA % -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Bank NFA position (% of assets) 7 Source: Emerging Advisors Group Limited

8 Bottom-up sales growth and EBITDA margins MSCI Asia ex-japan (ex-finance) December 1997 to December 2015 Actual Expected Rationale 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% In general, emerging market companies are highly sensitive to top-line growth due to operational gearing. In our view, sales growth and margin expansion is the ideal scenario for emerging market returns Current view 0% -5% Sales growth EBITDA margin (RHS) 15% 14% 13% Top-line growth has been extremely weak in recent years a key reason for EM equities relative weakness There have been tentative signs of margin turnaround which will provide a tailwind once top-line recovers 8 Source: FactSet, CLSA

9 Inflation / deflation indicators vs. EM returns: regression model November 2002 to January MSCI Emerging Markets Index 'fair value' Rationale The fair value line is composed of 3 simple indicators : the copper price, corporate spreads and inflation breakevens. There is a good correlation between this and EM $ index returns. We use this as a component for judging overall exposure levels 600 Current view EM equities were highly overvalued throughout 2014 and much of However, much of this has now corrected. Risk/reward gap is reasonably favourable on a short-term view, even if the market remains highly deflationary. 9 Source: Bloomberg.

10 EM - price to trend earnings January 1990 to December x 40x 35x 30x 25x Rationale Generic index valuation is unhelpful for short-term returns but useful for judging potential for long-term returns in EM Cyclicality in emerging market index composition can make short-term aggregate valuation measures misleading 20x 15x 10x 5x 0x EM - price to trend earnings ratio Current view EM has been derating versus trend earnings since The cyclically-adjusted PE ratio is now cheaper than at any time since the early 1990s 10 Source: Haver, Thomson Reuters

11 Percentage of down days in trailing period MSCI Emerging Markets Capitulation Indicator December 1989 to January Rationale MSCI Emerging Markets Index (log scale) We measure percentage of down days over a trailing period >60% down days reflects capitulatory price action Hit rate is 98% for positive returns over 12 months Current view A buy signal was triggered at end- August, only the eighth in 26 years Typically, there is further downside between the initial buy signal and subsequent trough an average of 16% over 37 days Caution is still warranted, but risk/reward is becoming more favourable 11 Source: GLG Partners LP

12 Portfolio characteristics Snapshot as at 31 January 2016 Sector Absolute weight Relative weight Information Technology 24.60% 3.86% Financials 14.28% % Banks 3.87% % Other Financials 10.41% -0.50% Consumer Discretionary 14.22% 4.32% Industrials 12.26% 5.24% Consumer Staples 12.16% 3.54% Materials 7.67% 1.64% Energy 3.17% -4.16% Health Care 2.90% -0.10% Utilities 2.24% -0.97% Telecommunication Services 0.00% -7.10% Region Absolute weight Relative weight China 22.52% -2.29% Onshore 11.65% 8.91% Offshore 10.87% % India 17.01% 8.34% Taiwan 10.03% -2.32% Korea (South) 7.65% -8.08% Mexico 6.29% 1.72% Israel 5.94% 5.94% South Africa 4.67% -1.89% Brazil 4.37% -1.05% Russian Federation 3.42% -0.21% United States 2.96% 2.96% Japan 2.58% 2.58% United Kingdom 2.23% 2.23% Hong Kong 2.13% 1.46% Pakistan 1.75% 1.75% United Arab Emirates 1.21% 0.33% 12 The organisations and/or financial instruments mentioned are for reference purposes only. The content of this material should not be construed as a recommendation for their purchase or sale. Source: GLG Partners LP

13 Important considerations Normal Market Fluctuations The Fund is subject to normal market fluctuations and the risks associated with investing in international securities markets and therefore the value of your investment and the income from it may rise as well as fall and you may not get back the amount originally invested Credit Risk The Fund will be exposed to credit risk on counterparties with which it trades in relation to on-exchange traded instruments such as futures and options and where applicable, over-the-counter ("OTC, "non-exchange") transactions. OTC instruments may also be less liquid and are not afforded the same protections that may apply to participants trading instruments on an organised exchange. Currency Risk The value of investments designated in another currency may rise and fall due to exchange rate fluctuations. Adverse movements in currency exchange rates may result in a decrease in return and a loss of capital. It may not be possible or practicable to successfully hedge against the currency risk exposure in all circumstances. Illiquidity Risk The fund may make investments or hold trading positions in markets that are volatile and which may become illiquid. Timely and cost efficient sale of trading positions can be impaired by decreased trading volume and/or increased price volatility. Derivatives Risk The Fund will invest derivatives (instruments whose prices are dependent on one or more underlying asset) to achieve its investment objective. The use of derivatives involves additional risks such as high sensitivity to price movements of the asset on which it is based. The extensive use of derivatives may significantly multiply the gains or losses. Leverage The fund's use of derivatives may result in increased leverage which may lead to significant losses. Emerging Markets Risk The fund may invest a significant proportion of its assets in securities with exposure to emerging markets which involve additional risks relating to matters such as the illiquidity of securities and the potentially volatile nature of markets not typically associated with investing in other more established economies or markets. 13

14 Important information Important Information The Fund is a sub-fund of GLG Investments VI plc, domiciled in Ireland and registered with the Central Bank Of Ireland. Full details of the Fund objectives, investment policy and risks are located in the Prospectus which is available with the Key Investor Information Document in English and in an official language of the jurisdictions in which the Fund is registered for public sale, together with the Report and Accounts of the UCITS. The Fund s documentation are available free of charge from the local information/paying agent, from authorised distributors and from In order to fulfil the fund s objectives the Prospectus allows the manager the ability to invest principally in units of other collective investment schemes, bank deposits, derivatives contracts designed with the aim of gaining short term exposure to an underlying stock or index at a lower cost than owning the asset, or assets aiming to replicate a stock or debt securities index. The value of an investment and any income derived from it can go down as well as up and investors may not get back their original amount invested. Alternative investments can involve significant additional risks. This material is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to invest in any product for which any Man Group plc affiliate provides investment advisory or any other services. 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