Presentation Global private equity trends
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1 Presentation Global private equity trends Alex Scott Partner Pantheon Ventures
2 Global Private Equity Trends Alex Scott July 2018
3 Hitting the headlines IPOS ARE DWINDLING, SO IS THE NUMBER OF PUBLIC COMPANIES FLOOD OF CASH TRIGGERS BUYOUT BUBBLE FEARS 25
4 Private markets AUM is in excess of $5 trillion $ billion 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,791 3,917 4,228 4,553 5,106 2,133 3,000 2,000 1, ,279 1,985 3,035 1,857 2,758 1,611 1,688 2,234 2,256 2,454 1,341 1,241 1,036 1, , ,973 2,180 2,229 2,370 2, ,468 1,421 1,574 1,722 1,794 1, , Private Equity AUM Other Private Assets AUM Source: Preqin May 2018, other private assets include private debt, real estate, natural resources and infrastructure. There is no guarantee that these market conditions will continue. 26
5 PE remains relatively small versus other asset classes globally Debt Markets 43.1% Developed Markets Public Equity 38.2% Emerging Markets Public Equity 7.1% Real Estate 7.0% Private Equity 3.4% Commodities & Real Goods 0.4% Source: Strategic Asset Allocation Over The Long Term, Calculating the Global Market Portfolio, October 1,
6 PE remains relatively small as a % of GDP Private equity as % of GDP 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% United States Canada Israel UK France Germany Korea India Italy Japan Brazil Public market cap as % of GDP 127% 92% 71% 63% 36% 30% 24% S&P 500 (US) FTSE 100 (UK) Nikkei 225 (Japan) CAC 40 (France) Shanghai Comp. (China) DAX 30 (Germany) Nifty 50 (India) Source: Invest Europe 2017 European Private Equity Activity; EMPEA Industry Statistics Year-end 2017, CVCA VC & PE Canadian Market Overview, Bloomberg; market caps based on latest available on 25 May GDP based on World Bank, Bloomberg or central bank/government data. There is no guarantee that these market conditions will continue. 28
7 Global fundraising back to record levels, driven by large buyouts $ billion < $2 billion buyout > $2 billion buyout Growth Venture Other Source: Preqin, as of May Labels for Other includes balanced, special situations and turnaround funds. There is no guarantee that these market conditions will continue. 29
8 Dry powder continues to grow, dominated by large/mega funds $ billion 450 Mega & large Mid & small year growth 5-year CAGR Venture Distressed PE & mezzanine Mega & large buyout % 13% Growth Mid & small buyout % 10% 200 Venture % 12% Distressed PE & Mezz % 8% 50 Growth % 12% 0 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Total 635 1,087 71% 11% Source: Preqin, as of May There is no guarantee that these market conditions will continue. 30
9 Investment activity is robust $ billion Buyout Venture Source: Preqin Private Equity online, downloaded March 15, 2018, Buyout includes growth capital. There is no guarantee that these market conditions will continue. 31
10 Exits have come off the peak of 2015 U.S. buyout Europe buyout # of exits 1,600 1,400 # of exits 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,200 1, Corporate Acquisition IPO Secondary Buyout Corporate Acquisition IPO Secondary Buyout Source: Pitchbook, U.S. PE Breakdown Q4 2017, European PE Breakdown Q. There is no guarantee that these market conditions will continue. 32
11 PE industry has been net cash flow positive for seven years $ billion Q Called ($bn) Distributed ($bn) Net cashflows ($bn) Source: Preqin, as of May data includes only to September Past performance is not indicative of future results. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. 33
12 Valuations are being pushed up U.S. purchase price multiples European purchase price multiples 9.1x 4.2x 7.7x 3.9x 8.5x 8.8x 8.7x 8.8x 3.9x 3.9x 3.6x 3.5x 9.7x 3.9x 10.3x 4.7x 10.0x 4.6x 10.7x 4.9x 10.1x 5.6x 8.4x 8.5x 8.8x 8.8x 3.9x 4.2x 4.7x 4.2x 8.3x 4.8x 10.1x 10.0x 5.7x 5.7x 10.9x 11.1x 5.5x 6.2x 5.0x 3.8x 4.6x 4.9x 5.1x 5.3x 5.7x 5.6x 5.4x 5.8x 4.5x 4.5x 4.3x 4.2x 4.5x 3.5x 4.3x 4.2x 5.4x 4.8x Debt/EBITDA Equity/EBITDA Valuation/EBITDA Debt / EBITDA Equity / EBITDA Valuation / EBITDA Source: S&P Capital IQ, M&A Stats, December Past performance is not indicative of future results. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. 34
13 How are Managers mitigating the current market environment? Expanding the opportunity set Creating more value through operational improvement Greater focus on industry sectors and strategy Pantheon opinion 35
14 Growing operating teams U.K. mid-market manager U.S. growth manager 2009 Execution = 14 Origination = 2 Operating = Execution = 23 Operating = Execution = 16 Origination = 3 Operating = Execution = 44 Operating = 25 Source: Manager materials. Examples for illustrative purposes. Execution Origination Operating 36
15 Greater manager specialization Shift from generalist to sector-focused teams Sector-focused funds Operating specialists Pantheon opinion. Please refer to slide 17 for case study disclosure on regarding deals completed by Pantheon. 37
16 Managers have a number of levers to pull Operational Value add Tech enablement Management Enabling growth Sales optimization Digitalization Increasing team bandwidth Investing in R&D for new product innovation Supply chain and procurement Use of AI and big data Strengthening finance and operational functions Expanding outside core markets Working capital improvement E-commerce penetration Talent management Strategic M&A to add new products or geographies Pantheon opinion 38
17 Private versus public performance by quartile & vintage year By IRR 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile MSCI World PME i) large dispersion of returns; ii) median performance outperforms PME in most years; iii) top quartile funds significantly outperform median fund performance Past performance is not indicative of future results. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. Source: Thomson One and Bloomberg. All data to March, Thomson Quartile data relates to all Private Equity across all regions from the Thomson One database. 39
18 Conclusion Investors are allocating more capital to private equity in search of growth, diversification and higher returns Private equity continues to grow, evolve and seek out new investment opportunities Managers are increasingly sophisticated, using a range of tools and resources to boost growth and value in companies Remaining highly selective and accessing high quality managers is key Pantheon opinion 40
19 Disclosure 1 case studies These case studies are examples of specific private transactions made by Pantheon funds / clients and are designed to assist prospective investors / clients to understand Pantheon s investment management style / strategy. It should NOT be regarded as a recommendation. Pantheon makes no representation or forecast about the performance, profitability or success of such transaction. Information concerning the performance of portfolio investments is available upon request, subject to confidentiality requirements. You should not assume that future recommendations will be profitable or will equal the performance of past recommendations. The statements above reflect the views and opinions of Pantheon as of the date of the investment analysis. Please also note that all performance numbers quoted in these case studies are net of underlying fund fees, carry and expenses and gross of Pantheon fund fees, carry and expenses. Pantheon does not calculate performance net of Pantheon fund fees, carry and expenses at the underlying fund investment level. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Future results are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. A list of all investments are available upon request. 41
20 Non-U.S. Disclosure This document and the information contained herein has been prepared and distributed by Pantheon and is the proprietary information of Pantheon; it may not be reproduced, provided or disclosed to others, without the prior written permission of Pantheon. This document is distributed by Pantheon which is comprised of operating entities principally based in San Francisco, New York, London and Hong Kong. Pantheon Ventures Inc. and Pantheon Ventures (US) LP are registered as investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) and Pantheon Securities LLC, is registered as a limited purpose broker-dealer with the SEC and is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ( FINRA ) and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation ( SIPC ). Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. Pantheon Ventures (HK) LLP is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission ( SFC ) in Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, this document is distributed by a licensed representative of Affiliated Managers Group (Hong Kong) Limited, a corporation licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activity, on the basis that you are a Professional Investor as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance. By accepting this document you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to a person who is not a Professional Investor as defined in the Ordinance. The registrations and memberships described above in no way imply that the SEC, FINRA, SIPC, FCA of the SFC have endorsed any of the referenced entities, their products or services, or this material. This information is intended only for distribution in Australia to persons who wholesale clients under section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Wholesale Clients"). By receiving this document you represent and warrant that you are a Wholesale Client. Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in relation to any financial services provided in Australia to Wholesale Clients under ASIC Class Order 03/1099. Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP is regulated by the FCA under the laws of England and Wales, which differ from Australian laws. Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP relies on the Australian Corporations (Repeal and Transitional Instrument) 2016/396 which grants transitional continuance relief to foreign financial services providers relying on Australian Class Order 03/1099 in order to provide financial services to Wholesale Clients in Australia. By accepting this document you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to a person who is not a Professional Investor as defined in the Ordinance. This document is a marketing communication, and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or solicitation to invest in a fund managed or advised by Pantheon or recommendation to purchase any security or service. The information contained in this document has been provided as a general market commentary only and does not constitute any form of legal, tax, securities or investment advice. It does not take into account the financial objectives, situation or needs of any persons, which are necessary considerations before making any investment decision. Unless stated otherwise all views expressed herein represent Pantheon s opinion. The general opinions and information contained in this publication should not be acted or relied upon by any person without obtaining specific and relevant legal, tax, securities or investment advice. The research data included in this publication is based upon information derived from public sources that are believed by Pantheon to be reliable, but Pantheon does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. Pantheon does not undertake to update this document, and the information and views discussed may change without notice. Legal, accounting and tax restrictions, transaction costs and changes to any assumptions may significantly affect the economics and results of any transaction or investment. In general, alternative investments such as private equity or infrastructure involve a high degree of risk, including potential loss of principal invested. These investments can be highly illiquid, charge higher fees than other investments, and typically do not grow at an even rate of return and may decline in value. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as registered investment products. 42
21 Non-U.S. Disclosure In addition, past performance is not indicative of future results. Future performance is not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. Market and exchange rate movements may cause the capital value of investments, and the income from them, to go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the amount originally invested This presentation may include forward-looking statements. All projections, forecasts or related statements or expressions of opinion are forward-looking statements. Although Pantheon believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct, and such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a guarantee, prediction or definitive statement of fact or probability. Pantheon has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document is accurate at the date of publication. However, no warranty or guarantee (express or implied) is given by Pantheon as to the accuracy of the information in this document, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, Pantheon specifically disclaims any liability for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in this document and for any loss or damage resulting from its use. In Australia, this document and the information contained herein is intended only for wholesale clients under section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Wholesale Clients"). By receiving this document you represent and warrant that you are a Wholesale Client. Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in relation to the provision of any financial product advice regarding the financial products which are referred to in this document under ASIC Class Order 03/1099 and is regulated by the FCA under UK laws, which differ from Australian laws. This document and the information contained herein is directed only at: (i) persons outside the United Kingdom and (ii) persons in the United Kingdom and who are investment professionals as defined in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, persons falling within any of the categories of persons described in Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of that Order or other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with that Order. No other person in the United Kingdom should access this document and the information it contains, or act or rely upon by it. In all jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom, this document is intended only for institutional investors to whom this document can be lawfully distributed without any prior regulatory approval or action. Any reference to the title of Partner in these materials refers to such person s capacity as a partner of Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP. In addition, any reference to the title of Partner for persons located in the United States refers to such person s capacity as a limited partner of Pantheon Ventures (US) LP. Copyright Pantheon All rights reserved. PVL
22 Presentation Global private equity trends Alex Scott Partner Pantheon Ventures
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