EM Asia - Still Room to Grow

Transcription

1 1 MARCH 2018 EM Asia - Still Room to Grow Despite recent financial market volatility, Goldilocks conditions of moderate economic growth and low inflation still prevail for most trade/open economies, with exports largely backed by robust Chinese and global demand. After robust economic growth of 6.1% in 2017, emerging market (EM) Asia s 2018 growth is likely to moderate marginally to 5.9% but remains at a healthy pace. For China, a 6.5% growth is expected this year although the economy may be off to a slow start at 6.4% year-over-year in Q1 and climb to 6.6% year-over-year in Q4. Read more on page 2 > Market Performance IN THIS ISSUE EM Asia - Still Room to Grow Page 1 2 Can Treasury Yields Continue to Climb? Page 3 Hong Kong Equities: More Legs to Run? Page 4 ECB Policies May Support EUR Page 5 In the US the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all declined by -5.96%, -5.54% and -3.10% respectively. The European Stoxx 600 also declined by -5.23% while the Nikkei 225 and the Topix were down by -6.62% and -5.91% respectively. The MSCI Emerging Markets lost %, the decline of which was led by MSCI Latin America (- 5.37%). Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Europe and MSCI AsiaXJapan lost -2.80% and -6.14% respectively. Model Portfolios Page 6 MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE.

2 EM Asia - Still Room to Grow Inflationary pressure may rise from 2.0% in 2017 to 2.5% this year, although it appears to be largely modest. Inflation has remained largely benign outside of the Philippines. Despite these benign macro conditions, politics could put some pressure on policies in a few EM Asia markets. For instance, India s 2019 budget already has tinges of populism that may keep the Reserve Bank of India on guard. Equities: EM Asia remains one of Citi s largest relative overweight positions as the region has seen currency strength even in the face of Fed tightening. This reflects balance sheet improvements since the Asian crisis period two decades ago and more recent actions to cap risks in China. The Fed and US policy could still cause a setback, but solid domestic economic growth and low valuations are supportive. Within EM Asia Citi is overweight on China, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Thailand as the cyclical upturn in the world economy and structurally lower oil price are likely to favor Asian economies. Bonds: Higher relative yields, a better fundamental backdrop in EM economies and a USD that is likely to be near the end of a six-year bull market should all be supportive for EM bonds. Citi analysts remain overweight on EM Asian and EMEA local currency bonds. EM assets performed strongly in 2017 (% return in USD) EM Asia remains one of Citi s largest relative overweight positions. Source: Bloomberg. As of 28 November MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 2

3 Can Treasury Yields Continue to Climb? With 10-year US Treasury yields breaching 2.9% recently its highest levels since 2014 can yields go any higher? Rising growth expectations, higher energy prices and improving inflation measures have coincided with a significant pick-up in long duration supply as wider fiscal deficits in the US has led to an increase in Treasury issuance. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continues to shrink its balance sheet. The Fed has reduced its UST holdings by $18.7 billion since October Citi estimates that the Fed is expected to reduce their UST portfolio by $230 billion in With the private sector left to absorb an increasing amount of net supply, investors may demand higher yields. However in Citi s view a flatter US yield curve and a weaker US dollar could create a limit to UST yields. A flatter US yield curve and a weaker US dollar could create a limit to UST yields. US Treasury 10-year Yields (% over 1 Year) Source: Bloomberg. As of 28 February Also, certain foreign exchange hedging costs are high at the moment making hedging currency risk in some bond portfolios uneconomical. Thus, many international US bond investors must accept US currency risk when evaluating the merits of lending to the US. Even at low historic yield levels and structural problems with hedging currency risk, Citi analysts see the rise in long-term US bond yields remaining fairly limited in the year ahead although Citi analysts still expect US high-yield bonds to outperform. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 3

4 Hong Kong Equities: More Legs to Run? Despite ~40% rally in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) since the beginning of 2017, HSI is trading at a reasonable ~13.5x FY18E P/E, vs. historical average of 12.5x. Citi s FY18E HSI earnings YoY growth of ~21% is also the most bullish growth forecast since Increasing fund flows from the stock connect are also encouraging. Average daily turnover continues to improve (+80% YTD to ~HK$157bn vs. ~HK$87bn in 2017). Southbound flows now contribute ~14% of total HK turnover. Hang Seng Index Valuation P/E The Hang Seng Index is still trading at a reasonable level despite the rally since Source: Citi Research. As of 22 February Property: Citi analysts continue to expect Landlords to outperform and Developers to underperform. They expect HK home prices to see a strong rally in 1H18 (+2% a month post CNY, or +10% in 1H18), driven by 1) high season post CNY; 2) positive wealth effect, better bonus and higher pay rise; 3) low liquidity secondary market accelerates upward momentum and 4) developers more aggressive on pricing of new launches. However, developers should underperform on widening NAV discount due to increasing risk concerns by equity investors. On the other hand, HK retail has seen a fast recovery pace especially in high end segments given 1) a steady job market with modest pay hikes, driving local spending; 2) deferred impact of positive wealth effects from higher home prices and stock price; 3) appreciation of RMB causing HK to appear cheaper to Mainland tourists; 4) low base effect after a three-year decline on luxury items Banks and Financials: Strong loan growth and Net Interest Margin (NIM) expansion is likely to support HK banks EPS growth and RoE expansion in the medium term. Macau Gaming: Citi analysts remain bullish on the Macau Gaming sector on its solid fundamentals. Mainland Visitation rose ~12% YoY in the CNY Golden Week vs comparable CNY period last year. Encouraging visitation trends are likely to bode well. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 4

5 ECB Policies May Support EUR Citi is still bearish on the USD for the medium term as the US government s recent spending bills and tax reform are likely to add pressure to the currency. Meanwhile, Citi analysts remain bullish on the EUR for the medium term. This view is driven by actual and expected changes in European Central Bank (ECB) policy. However, periphery politics triggered by the Italian Elections for example may pose a risk to the view. Also, the ECB may try to resist EUR appreciation in the short term. In Citi s forecasts, EUR/GBP could weaken in the near term but stabilize over the medium term while longer-term projections (two years) forecast that it could return to above prereferendum level. The biggest risk to this view remains any faltering in Brexit negotiations leading to pricing of a No Deal scenario. EM currencies could DM & EM Forecasts Path be roughly flat over the next six to 12 months, although they might benefit from slightly cheap valuations. Source: Citi Research. As of February According to Citi, medium-term fundamentals are supportive of JPY. Japan s external balances are extremely robust, with the current account surplus reaching an all-time high in October Citi analysts think that emerging market (EM) currencies could be roughly flat over the next six to 12 months, although they might benefit from slightly cheap valuations. This forecast is mainly driven by stronger EUR and equities prices in this period. If the CNY continues to strengthen (as driven by USD weakness), more pressure may be exerted on China s trade competitiveness though Citi analysts believe that the monetary authority may act upon its appreciation if it persists. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 5

6 2Q18 Model Portfolios Defensive Seeking primarily capital preservation over time and only willing to accept very minor portfolio value fluctuations from month to month. Income Oriented Seeking growth of wealth over time but unwilling to accept significant fluctuations in the value of portfolio from month to month. Cash 22% Developed Govt Bonds 45% Global IG Corp Bonds 20% Global Equities 13% Developed Govt Bonds 34% Global IG Corp Bonds 25% HY Bonds 6% US Equities 9% European Equities 7% Global Equities 14% Global REITs 5% Growth And Income Seeking long-term capital growth foremost but unwilling to accept significant losses on value of portfolio over the medium term. Developed Govt Bonds 18% Global IG Corp Bonds 18% HY Bonds 5% Emerging Market Debt 4% US Equities 19% European Equities 14% Pacific Equities 8% EM Equities 6% Global REITs 8% Growth Oriented Seeking long-term capital appreciation and willing to tolerate measured medium-term volatility in order to enhance longer-term performance. Aggressive Growth Seeking long-term capital appreciation and can accept potentially large losses on portfolio over the near-to-medium term in order to maximise long-term performance. Developed Govt Bonds 5% Global IG Corp Bonds 13% HY Bonds 6% Emerging Market Debt 6% US Equities 24% European Equities 17% Pacific Equities 10% EM Equities 9% Global REITs 10% Global IG Corp Bonds 4% HY Bonds 6% Emerging Market Debt 6% US Equities 29% European Equities 23% Pacific Equities 12% EM Equities 10% Global REITs 10% MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 6

7 World Market at a Glance Last price 52-Week 52-Week Historical Returns (%) 28-Feb-18 High Low 1 week 1 month 1 year Year-to-date US / Global Dow Jones Industrial Average % -5.96% 20.26% 1.25% S&P % -5.54% 14.82% 1.50% NASDAQ % -3.10% 24.85% 5.35% Europe MSCI Europe % -6.96% 17.64% -0.76% Stoxx Europe % -5.23% 2.54% -2.45% FTSE % -5.66% -0.43% -5.93% CAC % -3.77% 9.51% 0.15% DAX % -6.78% 5.08% -3.73% Japan NIKKEI % -6.62% 15.43% -3.06% Topix % -5.91% 15.17% -2.71% Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Market % -6.12% 27.64% 3.17% MSCI Latin America % -5.37% 17.98% 8.46% MSCI Emerging Europe % -2.80% 24.26% 8.31% MSCI EM Middle East & Africa % -4.42% 23.30% 4.10% Brazil Bovespa % -0.21% 28.04% 11.72% Russia RTS % -0.10% 16.92% 11.35% Asia MSCI Asia ex-japan % -6.14% 29.09% 2.11% Australia S&P/ASX % -0.56% 5.32% -0.81% China HSCEI (H-shares) % -9.78% 20.24% 5.75% China Shanghai Composite % -8.40% 0.55% -1.44% Hong Kong Hang Seng % -6.97% 29.92% 3.09% India Sensex % -5.18% 18.93% 0.37% Indonesia JCI % -0.95% 22.47% 3.80% Malaysia KLCI % 0.12% 9.59% 3.31% Korea KOSPI % -5.72% 16.05% -1.63% Philippines PSE % -6.26% 17.52% -0.97% Singapore STI % -1.38% 13.61% 3.38% Taiwan TAIEX % -2.98% 10.92% 1.62% Thailand SET % 0.07% 17.35% 4.36% Commodity Oil % -6.80% 14.13% 2.02% Gold spot % -2.32% 5.61% 1.18% Source: Citi Research as of 1 March MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 7

8 Currency Forecasts Last price Forecasts Currency 28-Feb-18 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 G10-US Dollar Euro EURUSD Japanese yen USDJPY British Pound GBPUSD Swiss Franc USDCHF Australian Dollar AUDUSD New Zealand NZDUSD Canadian Dollar USDCAD EM Asia Chinese Renminbi USDCNY Hong Kong USDHKD Indonesian Rupiah USDIDR 13,745 13,083 13,271 13,461 13,500 Indian Rupee USDINR Korean Won USDKRW 1,083 1,058 1,055 1,051 1,048 Malaysian Ringgit USDMYR Philippine Peso USDPHP Singapore Dollar USDSGD Thai Baht USDTHB Taiwan Dollar USDTWD EM Europe Czech Koruna USDCZK Hungarian Forint USDHUF Polish Zloty USDPLN Israeli Shekel USDILS Russian Ruble USDRUB Turkish Lira USDTRY South African Rand USDZAR EM Latam Brazilian Real USDBRL Chilean Peso USDCLP Mexican Peso USDMXN Colombian Peso USDCOP Source: Citi Research as of 1 March MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 8

9 Asia Model Portfolio This section shows the revisions to asset allocations decided by Citibank Asia Model Portfolio Committee on 29 September Citibank s Asia Model Portfolios provide a guide to possible diversification of investment portfolios and serve as an asset allocation reference tool both for periodic evaluation and prospective investments. Citibank Model Portfolios are developed by Citibank s inhouse Global and Regional investment specialists to cater to investors with various risk profiles (based on Citibank s risk assessment) and provide them with: Diversified asset allocations, made uniquely relevant for Asian investors Up-to-date asset allocations which are reviewed and revised periodically by Citibank s Research teams to reflect changing market conditions in respect of relevant asset classes Access to our best-in-class research from the Global Investment Committee It is important to note that while Citibank Model Portfolios represent Citibank s best thinking in terms of asset allocation and diversification, they serve only as a guideline for investors based on certain risk profiles. Market movements, changing market views, time horizons and liquidity constraints (among others) may result in a portfolio s asset allocation deviating from the model allocation. Citibank does not monitor and/or manage individual customer portfolios. For a long term investor, it is advantageous to diversify his/her investment portfolio and consider using Citibank Model Portfolios as a reference in diversification reviews. The suggested allocations are intended to be general in nature and are not to be construed as specific investment advice. Investors are encouraged to consult with their Relationship Managers to determine their allocation needs based on their risk tolerance, suitability and goals. Model Portfolio Disclaimers Investment products are (a) not insured by any government agency; (b) not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the depository institution; and (c) subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results: prices can go up or down. This is neither an offer nor solicitation to purchase or sell any security, other investment or service or to attract any funds or deposits. This document does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by any one in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to distribute such document or make any offer or solicitation. Investors investing in investment products denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Investment products are not available to US Persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Portfolio diversification is an important element for an investor to consider when making investment decisions. Concentrated positions may entail greater risks than a diversified portfolio. Certain factors that affect the assessment of whether your overall investment portfolio is sufficiently diversified may not be evident from a review of only your account with Citibank. It therefore is important that you carefully review your entire investment portfolio to ensure that it meets your investment goals and is within your risk tolerance, including your objectives for asset and issuer diversification. To discuss your asset allocations and potential strategies to reduce the risk and/or volatility of a concentrated position, please contact your personal banker/relationship manager. Citibank s Model Portfolio is not a program or offering, but is a diversification tool that is meant for reference purposes only. Model Portfolios are: (i) not binding on the part of the customers; (ii) not monitored by Citibank with respect to customers individual investment holdings; and (iii) not personalized to the specific needs of any individual customer. Citibank s Model Portfolios are not available to US Persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 9

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