Market Performance MONTHLY MARKET OUTLOOK. Markets Moving into Overshoot Mode. China: Reshaping Global Capital Flows (Part 2 of 5)
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1 4 SEPTEMBER 2017 Markets Moving into Overshoot Mode According to Citi Credit/Equity Clock framework, financial markets are moving into phase 3, a period where reasonable equity returns come with higher volatility. All the great equity market bubbles of the last 30 years had occurred in Phase 3 of the Credit/Equity Clock. As equity markets move into overshoot mode, risks are rising. While investors can stay invested to enjoy the ride, they may not want to be complacent. Investors can consider taking profits from concentrated positions and continue to keep portfolios diversified. Read more on page 2 > Market Performance IN THIS ISSUE Markets Moving into Overshoot Mode Page 1 2 China: Reshaping Global Capital Flows (Part 2 of 5) Page 3 Limited Market Impact from the German Election Page 4 In the US, the S&P 500 stayed flat while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.14%. Currency strength weighed on the European and Japanese equity markets. The European Stoxx 600 fell 1.08% while the Nikkei 225 and the Topix declined 1.47% and 0.55% respectively. The MSCI Emerging Markets outperformed, up 2.09% in August. Emerging Europe outperformed, up 7.2% as the Russian market gained 8.51%. Latin America rose 4.71% as Brazil rallied 8.13%. MSCI Asia ex Japan rose 0.53%, led by the Thai stock market which rose 2.7%.. Lower USD Likely Over Long Term Page 5 MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE.
2 Markets Moving into Overshoot Mode (continued) Citi s Credit/Equity Clock is a framework that looks at the relationship between credit and equity markets. This framework is premised on the belief that bond markets are leading indicators for equity markets. In the last 3 market cycles since 1988, high yield bond spreads started falling before the equity markets began to rise while rising bond spreads warned of the imminent end of the equity rallies. Citi s Credit/Equity Clock As equity markets move into overshoot mode, risks are rising. Source: Citi Research. As of 17 August There were two episodes in recent history where widening credit spreads did not lead to equity market corrections. In and , global central banks, notably the European Central Bank stepped in to stop the widening of credit spreads through its asset purchase program. With the Federal Reserve and the ECB poised to taper its balance sheet in the coming months, Citi analysts believe that financial markets are entering into Phase 3. In this phase, despite widening credit spreads, equities can still generate reasonable returns. However, those returns are likely to be accompanied by higher volatility and market dips may get bigger and more frequent. Phase 3s have lasted as short as 4 months in 2007 and as long as 32 months in the 1980s. What could be the potential signposts to warn investors that Phase 4 is approaching? According to Citi analysts, investors may want to become more watchful when spreads on US high yield credit and US Investment Grade bonds reach 600 basis points and 400 basis points respectively. At current levels, 400 basis points for US high yields and 110 basis points for US Investment Grades, it is still too early to call the move into Phase 4. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 2
3 China: Reshaping Global Capital Flows (Part 2 of 5) This article is the second of a series of five articles focused on the potential implications for investors as China opens up its domestic capital markets to greater foreign participation. China launched the Northbound Bond Connect in July this year, giving international investors direct access to China s $9 trillion bond market for the first time. The Connect allows foreign investors to trade in China s bond market without having to set up onshore accounts, thereby providing greater convenience compared to the two older bond schemes (QFI/RQFII & CIBM). If the Bond Connect scheme is successful, this could potentially help China get included into major global bond indices. If this materialises, Citi analysts estimate the inflow from passive investors alone could amount to US$175bn. They also expect inflows of US$75bn into policy bank notes. Such a scale of inflow could materially improve China s balance of capital flows and help support the currency. China s relatively low bond market cap relative to GDP signals growth potential China s bond markets are too big to be ignored over the long term Source: Citi Research as of 17 July Citi analysts note that investors may still have some concerns about investing in Chinese domestic bonds. For one, some Chinese Government Bonds are still not exempt from capital gains taxes. The lack of an established and liquid forward market to hedge currency exposures and the poor liquidity in the secondary bond are also deterrents. Citi analysts are nevertheless optimistic over China s eventual inclusion into major global bond indices. Its scale as the world s third-largest domestic bond market makes it difficult to ignore. That said, any increased in allocation to Chinese domestic bonds by foreign investors is likely to be a gradual process. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 3
4 Limited Market Impact from the German Election Citi analysts believe that Angela Merkel is likely to remain as Chancellor in the upcoming German federal election. As such, the impact on the euro, European equity and bond markets is likely to be limited. Citi analysts expect Angela Merkel to be re-elected as Chancellor for four more years, with her party Christian Democratic Union (CDU) likely to form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Germany Election Outcomes and Citi Projected Market Implications Source: Citi Research as of 4 August Market Implications Equities: Citi analysts expect the German election to have little impact on German or European equities, unless there is a shock loss for Merkel. Citi remains positive on European equities given the economic recovery in the euro area, improving earnings growth and relatively inexpensive valuations. Bonds: In Citi s base case, the tapering of asset purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to have a larger impact on European bonds than the outcome of the German election. In terms of politics, investors may want to be watchful of the Italian election next year. FX: The euro appears to have already priced in a Merkel win. Citi analysts expect the euro to remain supported given improvement in the macro environment, the ECB s less accommodative stance and a reduction in political risk. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 4
5 Lower USD Likely Over Long Term Citi analysts see the USD staying flat over the next year but trending lower over the longer term. The USD has tended to appreciate for cycles of 5-6 years and depreciate for around 10 years at a time. The last up cycle began in 2011 so the peak in USD Index over the past couple of years could be the start of a new USD bear market even as the Fed continues to raise rates. Citi analysts believe that a lower USD is likely over the longer term. Citi analysts see further gains for the EUR, supported by large current account surplus, equity market inflows, a stronger than expected euro area recovery and the European Central Bank s tighter policy stance. EUR strength is likely to persist at least until US fiscal stimulus materialises. Citi analysts see the USD staying flat over the next year but trending lower over the longer term. DM & EM Forecasts Path Source: Citi Research as of 18 August Inflation remains stubbornly low over in Australia. Despite the unwelcomed strength in the AUD, the high level of household debt and elevated asset prices are likely to keep the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting rates. The GBP is likely to be range bound. Upside can only come if a favourable Brexit deal takes shape. On the other hand, the pound s cheap valuation may limit further downside. Within Asian currencies, Citi analysts are most positive on the Malaysian Ringgit. Since December 2016, exporters have had to convert 75% of proceeds to ringgit, with the full impact felt from the quarter ending June as the grace period ended. This, together with the current account surplus is likely to be supportive of the MYR. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 5
6 World Market at a Glance Last price 52-Week 52-Week Historical Returns (%) 31-Aug-17 High Low 1 week 1 month 1 year Year-to-date US / Global Dow Jones Industrial Average % 0.26% 19.28% 11.06% S&P % 0.05% 13.85% 10.40% NASDAQ % 1.27% 23.31% 19.42% Europe MSCI Europe % 0.00% 16.49% 16.01% Stoxx Europe % -1.05% 8.83% 3.45% FTSE % 0.80% 9.57% 4.03% CAC % -0.16% 14.59% 4.59% DAX % -0.52% 13.81% 5.01% Japan NIKKEI % -1.40% 16.34% 2.78% Topix % -0.07% 21.65% 6.51% Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Market % 2.01% 21.71% 26.14% MSCI Latin America % 4.40% 19.63% 22.75% MSCI Emerging Europe % 7.49% 24.10% 6.87% MSCI EM Middle East & Africa % 4.31% 18.00% 13.48% Brazil Bovespa % 7.46% 22.34% 17.61% Russia RTS % 8.81% 15.32% -4.90% Asia MSCI Asia ex-japan % 1.03% 22.00% 28.86% Australia S&P/ASX % -0.11% 5.18% 0.86% China HSCEI (H-shares) % 4.32% 18.38% 20.23% China Shanghai Composite % 2.68% 8.92% 8.29% Hong Kong Hang Seng % 2.37% 21.73% 27.13% India Sensex % -2.41% 11.52% 19.17% Indonesia JCI % 0.40% 8.87% 10.71% Malaysia KLCI % 0.75% 5.67% 8.01% Korea KOSPI % -1.64% 16.15% 16.62% Philippines PSE % -0.74% 2.20% 16.34% Singapore STI % -1.57% 16.19% 13.76% Taiwan TAIEX % 1.52% 16.73% 14.40% Thailand SET % 2.54% 4.37% 4.75% Commodity Oil % -5.86% 5.66% % Gold spot % 4.09% 0.95% 14.68% Source: Citi Research as of 31 August MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 6
7 Currency Forecasts Last price Forecasts Currency 31-Aug-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 G10-US Dollar Euro EURUSD Japanese yen USDJPY British Pound GBPUSD Swiss Franc USDCHF Australian Dollar AUDUSD New Zealand NZDUSD Canadian Dollar USDCAD EM Asia Chinese Renminbi USDCNY Hong Kong USDHKD Indonesian Rupiah USDIDR 13,342 13,305 13,343 13,380 13,409 Indian Rupee USDINR Korean Won USDKRW 1,127 1,126 1,134 1,141 1,141 Malaysian Ringgit USDMYR Philippine Peso USDPHP Singapore Dollar USDSGD Thai Baht USDTHB Taiwan Dollar USDTWD EM Europe Czech Koruna USDCZK Hungarian Forint USDHUF Polish Zloty USDPLN Israeli Shekel USDILS Russian Ruble USDRUB Turkish Lira USDTRY South African Rand USDZAR EM Latam Brazilian Real USDBRL Chilean Peso USDCLP Mexican Peso USDMXN Colombian Peso USDCOP Source: Citi Research as of 31 August MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 7
8 Disclaimer Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Research ( CR ), Citi Global Markets Inc. ( CGMI ) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee. For important disclosures concerning companies covered by Citi's Equity Research analysts, please refer to the link: This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, Citigroup Global Wealth Management and Citigroup Alternative Investments. It is provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your financial adviser. Investments referred to in this document are not recommendations of Citibank or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment products are (i) not insured by any government agency; (ii) not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the depository institution; and (iii) subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. All forecasts are expressions of opinion, are not a guarantee of future results, are subject to change without notice and may not meet our expectations due to a variety of economic, market and other factors. The document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to fluctuations in price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. Certain investments contained in the document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change. Citibank does not provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Citibank N.A., London Branch is authorised and regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (USA) and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Our firm reference number with our UK regulators is Citibank Europe plc is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and by the Prudential Regulation Authority. It is subject to supervision by the Central Bank of Ireland, and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch is registered as a branch in the register of companies for England and Wales with registered number BR Its registered address is Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. VAT No.: GB Citibank N.A., London Branch is registered as a branch in the UK at Citigroup Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. Registered number BR Citibank Europe plc is registered in Ireland with number , with its registered office at 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1. Citibank Europe plc is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Ultimately owned by Citigroup Inc., New York, USA. In Jersey, this document is communicated by Citibank N.A., Jersey Branch which has its registered address at PO BOX 104, 38 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey, JE4 8QB. Citibank, N.A., Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Citibank N.A. is incorporated with limited liability in the USA. Head office: 399 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10043, USA. Citibank N.A CITI, CITI and Arc Design are registered service marks of Citigroup Inc. Calls may be monitored or recorded for training and service quality purposes. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 8
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