Opportunities and Risks

Transcription

1 1 FEBRUARY 2017 Opportunities and Risks By Florence Tan, Tae Hyon Ahn, Celestee Tan With the new US administration taking office while global growth is expected to pick up modestly, investors will experience both opportunities and risks in IN THIS ISSUE Opportunities and Risks Page 1 2 While being slightly underweight equities, Citi analysts identify several markets and sectors that still look attractive. In fixed income, while we are cautious on low yielding developed market government bonds, we are positive on US high yield bonds and emerging market debt. Read more on page 2 > India s war on cash: A catalyst for future growth Page 3 What s in store for China in the Year of the Rooster? Market Performance In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.51%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.79%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.30%. The Stoxx Europe 600 declined a meagre 0.36% while Japanese stocks were slightly mixed with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.38% and the Topix gaining 0.20% in January. MSCI Emerging Markets soared 5.45% in January, led by MSCI Latin America (7.51%), MSCI Asia ex Japan (6.19%) and MSCI Emerging Europe (2.03%). Within Emerging Markets, Brazilian stocks were the biggest outperformers, gaining 7.38% on rising commodities. Page 4 Dollar strength: More to go? Page 5 Model Portfolios Page 6 MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE.

2 Opportunities and Risks (continued) Equities US: Neutral. US earnings are rebounding slightly and could benefit further from a large, one-time corporate tax cut. However, valuations look stretched with US equities having risen 8% more than earnings over the past 12 months. Europe: Underweight. Despite low interest rates and reasonable valuations, the long list of political hurdles in 2017 led Citi to reduce the allocation to Europe to underweight. Japan: Neutral. Japanese exporters margins are likely to benefit from a weak yen. However, domestic structural challenges remain. Emerging Markets (EM): Overweight Latin America. Attractive valuations and stabilizing commodity prices lead Citi to maintain a modest overweight. Neutral EMEA: Earnings are recovering and valuations are the cheapest within EM. However, the region is most exposed to Europe where political issues may take center stage. Underweight Asia: In anticipation of further USD appreciation and interest rate pressures, Citi analysts reduced the allocation to Southeast Asian equities to an underweight. Credit Investment Grade: Overweight. Valuations have become less compelling, though the sector still offers relative value versus other high quality assets. Prefer USD over EUR issues. High Yield: Overweight. Low default rates, higher oil prices and resilient investor risk appetite may support another year of outperformance. Emerging Market Debt: Overweight. Higher US rates, a stronger USD and political uncertainty are potential negatives for EM assets. However, selected markets have attractive valuations. Citi analysts are overweight Latin America. We are also overweight local Asian bonds but are neutral EMEA. Commodities Gold Overweight. Higher interest rates and a stronger USD are likely to weigh on gold prices. However, gold remains an important diversifier to help manage portfolio risk as it has maintained a significant negative correlation with traditional risk assets. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 2

3 India s war on cash: A catalyst for future growth India appears the most resilient among Asian EM in terms of trade and the level of external debt. The recent war on cash also provides a catalyst for future growth. On 8 November 2016, the Government of India recalled existing 500 and 1,000 rupee notes and replaced with newly printed 500 and 2,000 rupee notes. The removal of 85% of the nation s cash aimed to reduce money laundering and cash hording but caused monetary conditions to tighten sharply in 4Q16. Growth of private consumption slowed to 5.9% in the second half of the current financial year from 7.1% in the first half. Trillions of previously unbanked savings have now been forced into the banking system, providing a much expanded base for credit creation. The instant need for a transaction medium also helped India to take a giant leap into digital payments and other financial services. These, along with the other reforms in 2016 may create tailwinds for the Indian economy. Citi analysts expect the Indian economy to grow 6.8% and 7.5% in fiscal year 2017 and 2018 respectively. Citi analysts prefer India within EM Asia given the country s resilience to external trade Consumption may see a major rebound after the initial shock Source: Citi Research as of 13 January Externally, India is the least exposed to exports to either the US or China. Its current account deficit is relatively small at 0.8% of GDP in 2016 and it has little external debt. Indian equities are not cheap at 16.2x 2017 consensus earnings but valuations are actually at the lower end of the range of past 3 years. Indian earnings are also expected to grow 17% next year. Citi analysts maintain their Sept 2017 Sensex target of 30,000. During past episodes of RMB weakness, the Indian Rupee (INR) was among the most resilient currency in Asia. With interest rates remaining the second highest in the region, this may help support the currency going forward. Key Risks: Given the landslide victory of the ruling party in the National elections, and the size and importance of Uttar Pradesh (largest state in India by population), this state election will be keenly watched in February - March. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 3

4 What s in store for China in the Year of the Rooster? As China approaches its 19th Party Congress, stability is likely to become the top priority. But potentially rising trade friction with the US and a weaker CNY may pose downside risks. Although China managed to restore policy credibility in 2016 with stronger growth and an improved balance sheet, risks have returned in the form of renewed CNY depreciation, higher interest rates, and potential trade friction with the US. This time, the need for stability is even greater than usual as the 19th Party Congress approaches. Given the authorities desire to have a more expansionary fiscal policy and for monetary policy to continue its neutral and prudent stance, Citi analysts believe that the Chinese economy can grow 6.5% in Risks are in trade and a weaker CNY. While Citi s base-case is for trade re-negotiation rather than trade wars with the US, China s exports may still face some pressure. As for the Chinese Yuan (CNY), Citi expects another 3-4% depreciation in Compared to the 6-7% CNY devaluation in early 2016, the impact on China equities may be more muted. China-US Trades by Product (FY2015, $bn) Citi analysts expect the Chinese economy to grow 6.5% in 2017 but potential trade friction with the US and a weaker CNY may pose downside risks. Source: Citi Research as of 25 November Be prepared for a bumpy ride. Citi s MSCI China end-2017 target is 70, while the targets for HSCEI and CSI300 are set at 11,000 and 4,000 respectively. Citi analysts prefer to be selective in this environment and favour sectors such as Financials (Insurance, Brokers and Banks), Industrials, IT and Health Care. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 4

5 Dollar strength: More to go? Citi analysts remain positive on the USD in the medium term and expect around 8-9% appreciation vs G10 currencies over the next 6-12 months. One medium term USD support is the likely shift in the US policy mix towards greater fiscal spending and higher interest rates. President Trump has promised increased infrastructure spend, tax cuts/ reform and a higher military spend. Furthermore, tax reforms and the repatriation of USD may be additional positives for the greenback. The pullback in Developed Markets (DM) & Emerging Markets (EM) Forecasts Paths the USD appears temporary. Citi expects further upside for the greenback. Source: Citi Research as of 20 January Citi analysts expect the EUR to trade down to, and probably below parity over the next 6-12m on the back of dollar strength. Higher US yields and robust investor risk appetite are likely to be drivers of a weaker JPY in our view. USDJPY may hit 120+ over 6-12m. Under our base case for broad USD appreciation, Citi analysts forecasts suggest all 3 currencies (AUD, NZD, and CAD) depreciate 5-8% in the medium term. Sterling appears cheap, but there may be more downside given deteriorating fundamentals. Citi analysts expect GBP/USD at 1.08 in 6-12m. In an environment of strong USD and higher US yields, Emerging Market (EM) currencies are likely to weaken further in our view. Within the region, Commodity currencies may outperform the currencies of manufacturing exporters. We see USD/CNY at 7.15 in 6-12m. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 5

6 1Q17 Model Portfolios Defensive Seeking primarily capital preservation over time and only willing to accept very minor portfolio value fluctuations from month to month. Cash 23% Developed Govt Bonds 47% Global IG Corp Bonds 21% Global Equities 9% Income Oriented Seeking growth of wealth over time but unwilling to accept significant fluctuations in the value of portfolio from month to month. Developed Govt Bonds 36% Global IG Corp Bonds 26% HY Bonds 7% US Equities 9% European Equities 4% Global Equities 11% Global REITs 5% Growth And Income Seeking long-term capital growth foremost but unwilling to accept significant losses on value of portfolio over the medium term. Growth Oriented Seeking long-term capital appreciation and willing to tolerate measured medium-term volatility in order to enhance longer-term performance. Aggressive Growth Seeking long-term capital appreciation and can accept potentially large losses on portfolio over the near-to-medium term in order to maximise long-term performance. Developed Govt Bonds 21% Global IG Corp Bonds 19% HY Bonds 6% Emerging Market Debt 4% US Equities 19% European Equities 11% Pacific Equities 7% EM Equities 4% Global REITs 8% Developed Govt Bonds 8% Global IG Corp Bonds 14% HY Bonds 7% Emerging Market Debt 6% US Equities 24% European Equities 14% Pacific Equities 9% EM Equities 7% Global REITs 10% Global IG Corp Bonds 5% HY Bonds 7% Emerging Market Debt 6% US Equities 29% European Equities 20% Pacific Equities 11% EM Equities 9% Global REITs 10% MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 6

7 EMEA Model Portfolio This section shows the revisions to asset allocations decided by Citibank EMEA Model Portfolio Committee on 16 December Citibank s EMEA Model Portfolios provide a guide to possible diversification of investment portfolios and serve as an asset allocation reference tool both for periodic evaluation and prospective investments. Citibank Model Portfolios are developed by Citibank s inhouse Global and Regional investment specialists to cater to investors with various risk profiles (based on Citibank s risk assessment) and provide them with: Diversified asset allocations, made uniquely relevant for EMEA investors Up-to-date asset allocations which are reviewed and revised periodically by Citibank s Research teams to reflect changing market conditions in respect of relevant asset classes Access to our best-in-class research from the Global Investment Committee It is important to note that while Citibank Model Portfolios represent Citibank s best thinking in terms of asset allocation and diversification, they serve only as a guideline for investors based on certain risk profiles. Market movements, changing market views, time horizons and liquidity constraints (among others) may result in a portfolio s asset allocation deviating from the model allocation. Citibank does not monitor and/or manage individual customer portfolios. For a long term investor, it is advantageous to diversify his/her investment portfolio and consider using Citibank Model Portfolios as a reference in diversification reviews. The suggested allocations are intended to be general in nature and are not to be construed as specific investment advice. Investors are encouraged to consult with their Relationship Managers to determine their allocation needs based on their risk tolerance, suitability and goals. Model Portfolio Disclaimers Investment products are (a) not insured by any government agency; (b) not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the depository institution; and (c) subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results: prices can go up or down. This is neither an offer nor solicitation to purchase or sell any security, other investment or service or to attract any funds or deposits. This document does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by any one in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to distribute such document or make any offer or solicitation. Investors investing in investment products denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Investment products are not available to US Persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Portfolio diversification is an important element for an investor to consider when making investment decisions. Concentrated positions may entail greater risks than a diversified portfolio. Certain factors that affect the assessment of whether your overall investment portfolio is sufficiently diversified may not be evident from a review of only your account with Citibank. It therefore is important that you carefully review your entire investment portfolio to ensure that it meets your investment goals and is within your risk tolerance, including your objectives for asset and issuer diversification. To discuss your asset allocations and potential strategies to reduce the risk and/or volatility of a concentrated position, please contact your personal banker/relationship manager. Citibank s Model Portfolio is not a program or offering, but is a diversification tool that is meant for reference purposes only. Model Portfolios are: (i) not binding on the part of the customers; (ii) not monitored by Citibank with respect to customers individual investment holdings; and (iii) not personalized to the specific needs of any individual customer. Citibank s Model Portfolios are not available to US Persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 7

8 Disclaimer Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Investment Publication and Analysis and Citi Global Markets (CGM) and voting members of the Global Investment Committee of Global Wealth Management. Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document. Investment products are not available to US persons and not all products and services are provided by all affiliates or are available at all locations. This document is for general informational purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security, currency, investment, service or to attract any funds or deposits. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Therefore, investment products mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors. 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