The MSCI Emerging Markets also saw a stellar month, up 8.30%, led. Latin America gaining. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging

Transcription

1 1 FEBRUARY 2018 Weak USD: What Does It Mean? Following US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin s (seeming) endorsement for the weak USD at Davos last week, USD sentiment continues to deteriorate reaching lows not seen since late However, the USD s decline was temporarily stemmed as he attempted to back-pedal on his comment. This was supported by US President Donald Trump, who said that he ultimately wants to see a strong USD and that Mnuchin s comments were just taken out of context. According to Citi analysts, a weaker US dollar could mean a few things: significantly stronger US export growth, slightly higher US inflation and probably no change to 2018 Fed policy. Read more on page 2 > Market Performance In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 5.79%, the S&P 500 rose 5.62% while the Nasdaq Composite rallied 7.36%. The European Stoxx 600 also gained by 1.61% while the Nikkei 225 and the Topix rose by 1.46% and 1.05% respectively. The MSCI Emerging Markets also saw a stellar month, up 8.30%, led by MSCI 13.08%. Latin America gaining Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Europe and MSCI AsiaXJapan gained 11.11% and 7.54% respectively. IN THIS ISSUE Weak USD: What Does It Mean? Page 1 2 Emerging Markets: Going for Growth or Value? Page 3 Can Crude Oil Prices Stay Up? Page 4 How is ASEAN Benefitting from China s Belt and Road Initiative? Page 5 Model Portfolios Page 6 MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE.

2 Weak USD: What Does It Mean? (continued) Citi analysts emphasize that the weakening dollar is a multi-year trend related to the outperformance of global economies and view the movements based on Davos comments as noise around this fundamental macro trend. Citi expects the USD s decline to continue. A weaker dollar makes US exports more attractive and foreign imports more expensive, which could boost US growth in the short term. In the Federal Reserve s (Fed) macro model, a 10% depreciation of the US dollar (assuming no fiscal or monetary policy response) raises US GDP by 1.5% over three years. A weaker dollar should raise the cost of imports, thus boosting inflation, although modestly. Citi analysts found that a 10% depreciation of the US dollar boosts year-onyear inflation by percentage points. The dollar weakness does not change Citi s forecast for three rate hikes in 2018 and Citi analysts think the Fed can expect to hit its 2% inflation target earlier if the dollar continues to weaken. For US stocks, a weaker dollar benefits earnings of companies that generate a significant share of their revenues overseas. Apart from that, dollar weakness is associated with flows into emerging markets (see chart). MSCI Asia relative to the US Dollar Index Source: Citi Research. As of 18 January MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 2

3 Emerging Markets: Going for Growth or Value? Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) equities is still far from euphoric levels, despite its attractive value and earnings per share (EPS) growth. EM equities are attractively valued and remain at a discount compared to developed market (DM) equities with Asia as the cheapest, followed by EMEA and Latin America. Citi expects EM equities to be supported by stronger global growth and healthy earnings. Consensus EPS growth forecast for EM in 2018 is at 14% with Asia at 14%, followed by EMEA and Latin America both at 12%. Citi analysts are overweight Emerging Asia, Latin America and EMEA. As for sectors, Citi analysts are overweight on information technology, consumer discretionary, financials and materials while underweight on consumer staples, telecommunications and industrials. EM value versus growth long-term performance Source: Citi Research. As of 8 January Investors looking to gain exposure to EM may want to adopt a value bias over growth. In EM, growth stocks are currently trading at their highest premium in 20 years versus value stocks. Value stocks also tend to perform better when interest rates rise and during periods of US dollar weakness. Over the longer term, value stocks have shown a stronger and more consistent track record than growth stocks. See chart. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 3

4 Can Crude Oil Prices Stay Up? Rising from $45 in June 2017, Brent crude oil has breached $70 per barrel over the last month does this indicate that the petroleum cycle is entering a new phase of higher prices? A decline in capital spending on new upstream investments to find and develop more oil could support oil prices as this could curb oil production. Numerous oil market analysts indicate that the decline of oil production is likely to accelerate in the years ahead as upstream capital spending fell to $495 billion last year from a peak of $915 billion in At the same time, demand could also support oil prices as it looks to be rising at a rate of around two million barrels per day in 2018 versus WTI Crude Oil Prices Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg. As of 26 January Citi analysts have pushed their 2018 first- and second-quarter oil price forecasts higher partly as a result of these two factors the ICE Brent forecast for the first quarter is now $65 per barrel and $58 per barrel for the second quarter, pushing Citi s estimate for 2018 as a whole to $57 per barrel (up from $54 per barrel). Citi analysts caution that the current high oil price is likely to encourage shale output, potentially depressing oil prices going forward. They expect oil prices to trend lower in the second half of 2018 and for wide trading ranges to persist, even though recent price action has triggered the perception that oil s new narrow range of $60-70 per barrel is here to stay. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 4

5 How is ASEAN Benefitting from China s Belt and Road Initiative? As China increases its influence beyond its borders through programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its economic linkages with the rest of the world especially those with ASEAN will evolve. For instance, China has stepped up from being a trading partner to becoming a direct investor and builder in ASEAN since the launch of BRI in September ASEAN now accounts for one-third of China s investment commitments and construction contracts in the BRI regions. China s projects in ASEAN heavily emphasize energy, transport and real estate as compared to other BRI regions, with a greater willingness on China s part to acquire equity stakes. See chart. Source: AEI, Citi Research. As of 11 January Compared to , the share of Chinese foreign direct investment in ASEAN-4 s basic balance surplus has doubled to 13.9% in Beyond the cyclical cushion from Chinese foreign direct investment, Chinese companies may have met 17% of ASEAN s infrastructure needs in Among the ASEAN countries, Malaysia and Vietnam stand out as leading beneficiaries as China s investment and construction footprints in both countries are large relative to their respective GDPs. Indonesia also benefits from construction projects financed by Chinese loans despite smaller greenfield investments. Singapore s large greenfield investments are largely in real estate while Thailand and the Philippines have received smaller investment commitments to date. In terms of market implications, Citi analysts expect the banking and construction sectors in Indonesia to benefit from the BRI. The added growth impulse from BRI has also aided the recent outperformance of the Malaysian Ringgit. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 5

6 1Q18 Model Portfolios Risk Level 2: Conservative Weight Change (QoQ) Global Investment Grade Bonds 43% -1% APAC ex JP / Emerging Market Bonds 48% 0% Cash 9% 1% Risk Level 3: Moderate Weight Change (QoQ) Global Investment Grade Bonds 21% -1% Global High Yield Bonds 2% 0% APAC ex JP / Emerging Market Bonds 12% 0% US Equities 26% 0% Europe Equities 10% 1% Japan Equities 4% 0% Asia ex Japan Equities 21% 2% Cash 4% -2% Risk Level 4: Aggressive Weight Change (QoQ) Global Investment Grade Bonds 8% 0% Global High Yield Bonds 1% 0% APAC ex JP / Emerging Market Bonds 5% 0% US Equities 30% -1% Europe Equities 11% 1% Japan Equities 5% 0% Asia ex Japan Equities 24% 2% GEM ex-asia 2% -1% Commodities 0% -1% Hedge Funds 14% 0% Risk Level 5/6: Very Aggressive / Specialized Weight Change (QoQ) US Equities 34% -2% Europe Equities 14% 1% Japan Equities 6% 0% Asia ex Japan Equities 29% 2% GEM ex-asia 2% -1% Hedge Funds 15% 0% MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 6

7 World Market at a Glance Last price 52-Week 52-Week Historical Returns (%) 31-Jan-18 High Low 1 week 1 month 1 year Year-to-date US / Global Dow Jones Industrial Average % 5.79% 31.64% 5.79% S&P % 5.62% 23.91% 5.62% NASDAQ % 7.36% 32.00% 7.36% Europe MSCI Europe % 5.53% 26.12% 5.53% Stoxx Europe % 1.61% 9.81% 1.61% FTSE % -2.01% 6.12% -2.01% CAC % 3.19% 15.44% 3.19% DAX % 2.10% 14.34% 2.10% Japan NIKKEI % 1.46% 21.31% 1.46% Topix % 1.05% 20.70% 1.05% Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Market % 8.30% 37.98% 8.30% MSCI Latin America % 13.08% 27.09% 13.08% MSCI Emerging Europe % 11.11% 22.89% 11.11% MSCI EM Middle East & Africa % 6.08% 25.72% 6.08% Brazil Bovespa % 11.14% 31.30% 11.14% Russia RTS % 11.08% 10.15% 11.08% Asia MSCI Asia ex-japan % 7.54% 40.47% 7.54% Australia S&P/ASX % -0.45% 7.41% -0.45% China HSCEI (H-shares) % 15.82% 38.33% 15.82% China Shanghai Composite % 5.25% 10.18% 5.25% Hong Kong Hang Seng % 9.92% 40.78% 9.92% India Sensex % 5.60% 30.04% 5.60% Indonesia JCI % 3.93% 24.77% 3.93% Malaysia KLCI % 3.99% 11.79% 3.99% Korea KOSPI % 4.01% 24.13% 4.01% Philippines PSE % 2.40% 21.22% 2.40% Singapore STI % 3.85% 15.99% 3.85% Taiwan TAIEX % 4.33% 17.53% 4.33% Thailand SET % 4.17% 15.82% 4.17% Commodity Oil % 7.13% 22.57% 7.13% Gold spot % 3.23% 11.11% 3.23% Source: Citi Research as of 31 January MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 7

8 Currency Forecasts Last price Forecasts Currency 31-Jan-18 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 G10-US Dollar Euro EURUSD Japanese yen USDJPY British Pound GBPUSD Swiss Franc USDCHF Australian Dollar AUDUSD New Zealand NZDUSD Canadian Dollar USDCAD EM Asia Chinese Renminbi USDCNY Hong Kong USDHKD Indonesian Rupiah USDIDR 13,389 13,083 13,271 13,461 13,500 Indian Rupee USDINR Korean Won USDKRW 1,068 1,058 1,055 1,051 1,048 Malaysian Ringgit USDMYR Philippine Peso USDPHP Singapore Dollar USDSGD Thai Baht USDTHB Taiwan Dollar USDTWD EM Europe Czech Koruna USDCZK Hungarian Forint USDHUF Polish Zloty USDPLN Israeli Shekel USDILS Russian Ruble USDRUB Turkish Lira USDTRY South African Rand USDZAR EM Latam Brazilian Real USDBRL Chilean Peso USDCLP Mexican Peso USDMXN Colombian Peso USDCOP Source: Citi Research as of 31 January MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 8

9 Asia Model Portfolio This section shows the revisions to asset allocations decided by Citibank Asia Model Portfolio Committee on 29 September Citibank s Asia Model Portfolios provide a guide to possible diversification of investment portfolios and serve as an asset allocation reference tool both for periodic evaluation and prospective investments. Citibank Model Portfolios are developed by Citibank s inhouse Global and Regional investment specialists to cater to investors with various risk profiles (based on Citibank s risk assessment) and provide them with: Diversified asset allocations, made uniquely relevant for Asian investors Up-to-date asset allocations which are reviewed and revised periodically by Citibank s Research teams to reflect changing market conditions in respect of relevant asset classes Access to our best-in-class research from the Global Investment Committee It is important to note that while Citibank Model Portfolios represent Citibank s best thinking in terms of asset allocation and diversification, they serve only as a guideline for investors based on certain risk profiles. Market movements, changing market views, time horizons and liquidity constraints (among others) may result in a portfolio s asset allocation deviating from the model allocation. Citibank does not monitor and/or manage individual customer portfolios. For a long term investor, it is advantageous to diversify his/her investment portfolio and consider using Citibank Model Portfolios as a reference in diversification reviews. The suggested allocations are intended to be general in nature and are not to be construed as specific investment advice. Investors are encouraged to consult with their Relationship Managers to determine their allocation needs based on their risk tolerance, suitability and goals. Model Portfolio Disclaimers Investment products are (a) not insured by any government agency; (b) not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the depository institution; and (c) subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results: prices can go up or down. This is neither an offer nor solicitation to purchase or sell any security, other investment or service or to attract any funds or deposits. This document does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by any one in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to distribute such document or make any offer or solicitation. Investors investing in investment products denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Investment products are not available to US Persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Portfolio diversification is an important element for an investor to consider when making investment decisions. Concentrated positions may entail greater risks than a diversified portfolio. Certain factors that affect the assessment of whether your overall investment portfolio is sufficiently diversified may not be evident from a review of only your account with Citibank. It therefore is important that you carefully review your entire investment portfolio to ensure that it meets your investment goals and is within your risk tolerance, including your objectives for asset and issuer diversification. To discuss your asset allocations and potential strategies to reduce the risk and/or volatility of a concentrated position, please contact your personal banker/relationship manager. Citibank s Model Portfolio is not a program or offering, but is a diversification tool that is meant for reference purposes only. Model Portfolios are: (i) not binding on the part of the customers; (ii) not monitored by Citibank with respect to customers individual investment holdings; and (iii) not personalized to the specific needs of any individual customer. Citibank s Model Portfolios are not available to US Persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 9

10 Disclaimer Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Research ( CR ), Citi Global Markets Inc. ( CGMI ) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee. Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document. The information in this document has been obtained from reports issued by CGMI. Such information is based on sources CGMI believes to be reliable. CGMI, however, does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute CGMI's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This document is for general information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank N.A. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the appropriateness of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Investments are not deposits, are not obligations of, or guaranteed or insured by Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc., or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any local government or insurance agency, and are subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investors investing in funds denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, prices can go up or down. Some investment products (including mutual funds) are not available to US persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Investors should be aware that it is his/her responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of his/her investment transactions. If an investor changes residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. Citibank does not provide legal and/or tax advice and is not responsible for advising an investor on the laws pertaining to his/her transaction. Citi Research (CR) is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For more information, please refer to Country Specific Disclosures Australia This document is distributed in Australia by Citigroup Pty Limited ABN , AFSL No , Australian credit licence Any advice is general advice only. It was prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Before acting on this advice you should consider if it's appropriate for your particular circumstances. You should also obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and terms and conditions before you make a decision about any financial product, and consider if it s suitable for your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial, and taxation advice prior to investing. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Investment products are not available to US people and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Bahrain This document is distributed in Bahrain by Citibank, N.A., Bahrain. Citibank, N.A., Bahrain, may in its sole and absolute discretion provide various materials relating to the securities for information purposes only. Citibank, N.A., Bahrain is licensed by the Central Bank of Bahrain as a Conventional Retail Bank and is bound by the CBB s regulations and licensing conditions with regards to products and services provided by Citibank, N.A. Bahrain. These terms are governed by and shall be construed in accordance with the laws of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The Customer irrevocably agrees that the civil courts in the Bahrain shall have non-exclusive jurisdiction to hear and determine any suit, action or proceeding and to settle any disputes which may arise out of or in connection with these Terms and Conditions and for such purposes the Customer irrevocably submits to the jurisdiction of such courts. Investment products are not insured by government or governmental agencies. Investment and Treasury products are subject to Investment risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results: prices can go up or down. Investors investing in investments and/or treasury products denominated in foreign (non-local) currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause loss of principal when foreign currency is converted to the investors home currency. Investment and Treasury products are not available to U.S. persons. All applications for investments and treasury products are subject to Terms and Conditions of the individual investment and Treasury products. Customer understands that it is his/her responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of his/her investment transactions. If customer changes residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. Customer understands that Citibank does not provide legal and/or tax advice and are not responsible for advising him/her on the laws pertaining to his/her transaction. Citibank Bahrain does not provide continuous monitoring of existing customer holdings. Hong Kong This document is distributed in Hong Kong by Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ("CHKL"). Prices and availability of financial instruments can be subject to change without notice. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 10

11 Country Specific Disclosures India This document is distributed in India by Citibank N.A. Investment are subject to market risk including that of loss of principal amounts invested. Products so distributed are not obligations of, or guaranteed by, Citibank and are not bank deposits. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Investment products cannot be offered to US and Canada Persons. Investors are advised to read and understand the Offer Documents carefully before investing. Indonesia This report is made available in Indonesia through Citibank N.A., Indonesia Branch. Citibank N. A., is a bank that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK). Korea This document is distributed in South Korea by Citibank Korea Inc. Investors should be aware that investment products are not guaranteed by the Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investment products are not available to US persons. Malaysia Investment products are not deposits and are not obligations of, not guaranteed by, and not insured by, Citibank Berhad, Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc. or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any government or insurance agency. Investment products are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. These are provided for general information only and are not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency or other investment products. Citibank Berhad does not represent the information herein as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty express or implied regarding it and no liability whatsoever will be accepted by Citibank Berhad, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, for the accuracy or completeness of such information including any error of fact or omission herein which may lead to any direct or consequential loss, damages, costs or expenses arising from any reliance upon or use of the information in the material. People's Republic of China This document is distributed by Citibank (China) Co., Ltd in the People's Republic of China (excluding the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and Taiwan). Philippines This document is made available in Philippines by Citicorp Financial Services and Insurance Brokerage Phils. Inc, and Citibank N.A. Philippine Branch. Investors should be aware that Investment products are not insured by the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation or Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government entity. Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited ( CSL ). Investment products are not insured under the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme. Thailand This document contains general information and insights distributed in Thailand by Citigroup and is made available in English language only. Citi does not dictate or solicit investment in any specific securities and similar products. Investment contains certain risk, please study prospectus before investing. Not an obligation of, or guaranteed by, Citibank. Not bank deposits. Subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Subject to price fluctuation. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Not offered to US persons. Vietnam This document is distributed in Vietnam by Citibank, N.A., - Ho Chi Minh City Branch and Citibank, N.A. - Hanoi Branch, licensed foreign bank s branches regulated by the State Bank of Vietnam. Investment contains certain risk, please study product s prospectus, relevant disclosures and disclaimers and the terms and conditions for details before investing. Investment products are not offered to US persons. United Kingdom This document is distributed in U.K. by Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch. The registered address in the UK is Citibank Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 11