January 13, 2014 with data as of January 10

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1 January 13, 2014 with data as of January 10 Weekly Citi analysts forecasts Market Overview 02 Weekly Commentary 05 Equity Index 07 Equity 03 Bond & Commodities 04 Hong Kong Stocks Update & Sector Outlook 06 Commodities 08 Foreign Exchange 09

2 Weekly Market Overview Chart 1: Weekly Market Performance S&P 500 Index STOXX Europe 600 Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Index HSCEI Shanghai Comp. US Gov't Bond Index ^ World IG Corp Bond Index ^ US HY Bond Index ^ US Dollar Index COMEX Gold Futures WTI Crude Oil Futures -3.4% -2.6% Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 10, 2014 ^Reference Indices: Citigroup Bond Indices Series -2.3% -1.3% -0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% Market Overview Global stocks gained as optimism over economic growth and corporate earnings overshadowed a weaker-than-forecast U.S. jobs report. China stocks fell amid concern new share offerings will divert funds. The China s securities regulator has recently approved 50 IPOs. Key Economic Releases over the Week U.S. payroll missed estimates: Payrolls in December increased by 74,000, the slowest pace since January 2011, followed a revised 241,000 advance the prior month. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%, the lowest since October 2008, as more people left the labor force. China s exports beat estimates: China s exports in Dec rose 4.3% year-on-year (market estimate: 5%). Imports increased 8.3%. Key Market Events / Policies over the Week Fed Officials Saw Declining Benefits From QE: Federal Reserve officials saw diminishing economic benefits from their QE during their last meeting, the minutes shows. U.S. Earnings: Alcoa unofficially kicked off the fourthquarter earnings season on Jan. 9. Analysts forecast profits for S&P 500 companies grew by 4.9% in the period while sales increased 1.8%, according to Bloomberg News. Citi analysts view: U.S. monetary policy outlook Despite Dec payrolls missed estimates, other data on auto output and external trade boosted Q4 GDP estimates above 3¼%, which should help restore the previous pace of job gains as winter effects fade. Although Fed officials have been sensitive to short-term payroll swings, Citi analysts don t think the latest payroll reports will deter continued tapering of QE later this month. 2

3 Weekly Equity U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 Index rose 0.6% to 1,842, as optimism over economic growth and corporate earnings overshadowed a weaker-than-forecast jobs report. China stocks: The Shanghai Composite fell 3.4% to 2,013 over the week, amid concern new share offerings will divert funds. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved 50 IPOs, with 44 in Shenzhen and six for Shanghai. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also dropped 2.6% to 10,164 during the week. Citi analysts view: Global Equity Global equities now trade on a trailing price-toearnings of 17x, up from the 12x 2011 low. In 2014, the driving force for equity markets may shift from valuation re-rating to earnings growth. While earnings-per-share (EPS) stayed flat from 2011 until mid-2013, Citi analysts expect global EPS to grow 9% in Japan is forecast to lead the way, with a 25% increase. Cyclical sectors should generate premium EPS growth. Chart 2: Equity Market Performance Equity Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 10, 2014 Market Weekly Change (%) Close Change 1-Week 3-Month YTD Global / US MSCI AC World Index % 5.8% -0.7% S&P 500 Index 1, % 8.9% -0.3% Dow Jones Industrial Average 16, % 8.7% -0.8% Russell 2000 Index 1, % 8.9% 0.1% Europe STOXX % 6.3% 0.5% FTSE 100 Index 6, % 4.8% -0.1% DAX Index 9, % 9.1% -0.8% CAC 40 Index 4, % 0.8% -1.1% Japan Nikkei , % 12.1% -2.3% Asia MSCI Asia ex Japan % -2.0% -2.9% Shanghai Composite 2, % -8.1% -4.9% Hang Seng Index 22, % -0.5% -2.0% Hang Seng China Enterprise Index 10, % -2.8% -6.0% Taiwan TAIEX Index 8, % 2.2% -1.0% Kospi Index 1, % -3.1% -3.6% BSE Sensex 30 Index 20, % 2.4% -1.9% Jakarta Composite Index 4, % -5.2% -0.4% Straits Times Index 3, % -0.8% -0.7% FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI 1, % 2.9% -2.2% SET Index 1, % -13.5% -3.3% Latin America Brazil Bovespa Index 49, % -6.2% -3.5% Mexico IPC Index 42, % 4.9% -0.6% Emerging Europe Russia RTS Index $ 1, % -6.0% -3.2% 3

4 Weekly Bond & Commodities 10-year Treasury yield fell 14 basis points (bps) to 2.86% last week, the most since September, after a government report showed the U.S. added the fewest jobs in December in two years, bolstering speculation an uneven economic recovery may slow the pace of Federal Reserve cuts to its bond-purchase program. U.S. high yield bond returned 0.5% last week, with the avg. credit spread tightened 1 bps to 412 bps, while the avg. bid yield fell 7 bps to 6.37%, according to Citi high yield market Index. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.3% to $92.7 a barrel last week, as a government report showed bigger-thanexpected gains in gasoline and distillate supplies as demand dropped. The report also showed U.S. crude production rose to 8.15 million barrels a day, the most since September Comex gold futures gained 0.7% to $1,246.9 an ounce. Chart 3: Bond and Commodities Performance Fixed income Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 10, 2014 Market Weekly Close Change 1-Week 3-Month YTD Bond Indices Citigroup US Gov't Bond Index % 0.1% 0.6% Citigroup WBIG - Corporate Index % 1.7% 0.8% Citigroup Global EM Sovereign USD % 0.3% 0.2% Citigroup High Yield Market Index % 3.4% 0.6% JACI Non-Investmenty Grade Corp % 2.2% -0.2% US Treasury Yields 3-Month - Yield (%) Year - Yield (%) Year - Yield (%) Year - Yield (%) Year - Yield (%) Commodity Market Weekly Change (%) Change in Yield (in bps) Price Change (%) Close Change 1-Week 3-Month YTD Energy WTI Crude Futures ($/barrel) % -10.0% -5.8% Brent Crude Futures ($/barrel) % -4.1% -3.2% Natural Gas Futures (MMBtu) % 8.9% -4.2% Base Metals LME Aluminum Futures ($/MT) 1, % -6.2% -2.0% LME Copper Futures ($/MT) 7, % 2.2% -0.8% Precious Metals Comex Gold Futures ($/oz.) 1, % -3.9% 3.7% Comex Silver Futures ($/oz.) % -7.6% 4.6% 4

5 2014 Equity Market Outlook - Sector Strategy Key Points Citi analysts forecast acceleration in the world economy in 2014, supporting a pro-cyclical sector strategy. Citi analysts are overweight on the financial, consumer discretionary, I.T. and healthcare sectors. In 2014, Citi analysts are overweight on the financial, consumer discretionary, I.T. and healthcare sectors. Citi analysts are underweight the more defensive consumer staples, telecoms, utilities and energy. The preferred defensive is health care where Citi analysts remain overweight. Financials (Overweight) Tougher regulation post-2008 is the new normal but regulators are working to reduce systemic concerns. In Europe, the transition to European Central Bank supervision should reduce the sector risk premium. The sector trades at 12x 2014 estimated price-toearnings (PE), a 15% discount to the market, with banks being the cheapest, trading at 11x. Consumer Discretionary (Overweight) Growth may come from expansion of online retail and ability of retailers to adapt business models to online environment. On autos, flat demand in Europe, 3% growth in US and 9% growth in China may drive global light vehicle sales to grow 4%. Following the 21% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth in 2013, consensus expects 15% EPS growth over next two years driven by strong growth in developed markets, particularly Japan. Healthcare (Overweight) The sector will benefit from reimbursement environment in the U.S., especially in light of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). Another positive factor is an improving regulatory environment, especially the U.S. Food and Drug Administration s willingness to expedite time to market of truly innovative drugs. Chart 4: Global Equity Performance - by Sector (2013) Consumer Discretionary Health Care Industrials Info Tech Global Equities Telecom Service Financials Consumer Staples Energy Utility Material -2.9% 34.0% 33.4% 27.0% 24.9% 20.3% 19.1% 19.1% 15.9% 10.8% 7.0% Source: Bloomberg L.P. and MSCI as of December 31, 2013 (Reference Index: MSCI AC World Index) 5

6 Hong Kong Stocks Update Chart 5: Weekly Top 10 Turnover HSI constituents Close Weekly 52-Week 52-Week Name Ticker 1/10/2014 Return High Low HANG SENG INDEX 22, % 24, , TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD % CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK-H % HSBC HOLDINGS PLC % IND & COMM BK OF CHINA-H % CHINA MOBILE LTD % CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVEST % BANK OF CHINA LTD-H % GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP % CNOOC LTD % PING AN INSURANCE GROUP CO-H % Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of January 10, 2014 The Hang Seng Index rose 0.1% during the week to 22,846, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index tumbled 2.6% to 10,164. Chinese financial stocks fell as The Shanghai Composite fell 3.4% over the week, amid concern new share offerings will divert funds. China Construction Bank (939) dropped 2.3% while ICBC (1398) fell 2.2%. Belle International (1880) soared 11.4% to HK$9.95 over the week, the best performing blue-chip, after a brokerage said the retailer may boost earnings by 13% in the second half from a year earlier. Sector Update: Macau gaming Following a 55% run in 2012, Macau gaming stocks kept their strong momentum in 2013, +116% year-on-year (vs. +3% in the Hang Seng Index). In 2014, Citi analysts are bullish on Macau gaming stocks, anticipating that the mass gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth is sustainable in The opening of the Chimelong theme park and the moving of the Hengqin immigration checkpoint should further drive visitation growth, which will bode well for mass GGR growth is the first year since 2005 with no major casino opening to drain growth. Demand is set to increase given the largest hotel property on the mainland opening up in Hengqin. Citi analysts estimate GGR to grow 20% in 2014, including 13% growth in VIP market and 35% growth in mass market. With no new casino openings in 2014, growth would be shared by existing casinos, translating to in margin expansion. Overall, Macau gaming stocks EBITDA is estimated to increase 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 31% yoy in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Given the strong EBITDA growth and margin expansion, Citi analysts believe Macau gaming stocks current valuation, trading at 20x 2014 estimated earnings, remains undemanding, on the back of an estimated 28% earnings growth. 6

7 Citi analysts : Global Equity Index (Remarks: as of January 7, 2014) Citi analysts' forecasts Valuation Past Performance Market End Expected Forecast P/E ratio Forecast P/B ratio Region / Index 1-Week 3-Month YTD Close 2014 Change Global Global MSCI AC World Index 0.4% 5.8% -0.7% % EM MSCI EM -1.0% -4.3% -3.2% , % Developed Countries U.S. S&P 500 Index 0.6% 8.9% -0.3% 1, , % Dow Jones Ind. Avg. -0.2% 8.7% -0.8% 16, , % Europe Stoxx Europe % 6.3% 0.5% % FTSE % 4.8% -0.1% 6, , % Japan TOPIX Index -0.3% 10.2% -0.3% 1, , % Australia S&P / ASX % 3.2% -0.7% 5, , % Asia Asia ex Japan MSCI Asia ex Japan -0.6% -2.0% -2.9% % China Shanghai Composite -3.4% -8.1% -4.9% 2, , % Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 0.1% -0.5% -2.0% 22, , % Hang Seng China Ent Index -2.6% -2.8% -6.0% 10, , % Taiwan Taiwan TWSE Index -0.2% 2.2% -1.0% 8, , % South Korea KOSPI Index -0.4% -3.1% -3.6% 1, , % India SENSEX 30 Index -0.4% 2.4% -1.9% 20, , % Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index -0.1% -5.2% -0.4% 4, , % Singapore Straits Times Index 0.4% -0.8% -0.7% 3, , % Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI -0.4% 2.9% -2.2% 1, , % Thailand SET Index 2.5% -13.5% -3.3% 1, , % Latin America Brazil Bovespa Index -2.5% -6.2% -3.5% 49, , % Mexico BOLSA IPC Index 0.9% 4.9% -0.6% 42, , % Eastern Europe Russia RTS Index $ -3.2% -6.0% -3.2% 1, , % Source: Bloomberg L.P. and Citi, performance and market data as of January 10,

8 Citi analysts : Commodity Future Price (Remarks: as of November 18, 2013) Energy Past Performance Market Citi analysts' forecasts Expected Change 1-Week 3-Month YTD Close 0-3 Months 6-12 Months (6-12 Months) NYMEX WTI Crude USD/bbl -1.3% -10.0% -5.8% % ICE Brent Crude USD/bbl 0.3% -4.1% -3.2% % NYMEX Natural Gas USD/MMBtu -5.8% 8.9% -4.2% % Base Metals Aluminum (LME) USD/MT -0.4% -6.2% -2.0% 1, ,730 1, % Copper (LME) USD/MT -0.2% 2.2% -0.8% 7, ,700 6, % Lead (LME) USD/MT -2.6% 2.1% -4.5% 2, ,250 2, % Nickel (LME) USD/MT 0.1% 0.8% -0.3% 13, ,500 18, % Tin (LME) USD/MT 1.7% -6.4% -2.1% 21, ,500 23, % Zinc (LME) USD/MT 0.3% 7.2% -1.1% 2, ,800 1, % Precious Metals Gold (Comex) USD/oz 0.7% -3.9% 3.7% 1, ,220 1, % Silver (Comex) USD/oz 0.1% -7.6% 4.6% % Platinum (NYMEX) USD/oz 1.6% 2.9% 4.8% 1, ,500 1, % Palladium (NYMEX) USD/oz 2.0% 4.7% 3.9% % Agriculture Corn (CBT) USd/bu 2.2% -1.3% 2.5% % Wheat (CBT) USd/bu -6.1% -17.0% -6.0% % Soybean (CBT) USd/bu 0.6% -0.7% -2.6% 1, ,265 1, % Rice (CBT) USD/cwt 0.3% 2.7% 0.9% % Cotton (NYB-ICE) USd/lb -0.4% -0.7% -2.4% % Sugar (NYB-ICE) USd/lb -3.2% -16.8% -5.1% % Coffee (NYB-ICE) USd/lb 3.7% 5.5% 9.0% % Cocoa (NYB-ICE) USD/MT 0.5% -0.6% 0.1% 2, ,600 2, % Source: Bloomberg L.P. and Citi, performance and market data as of January 10,

9 Citi analysts : Foreign Exchange (Remarks: as of November 21, 2013) Source: Bloomberg L.P. and Citi, performance and market data as of January 10, Past Performance (vs. USD) Market Citi analysts' forecasts Expected Change 1-Week 3-Month YTD Close 0-3 Months 6-12 Months (6-12 Months) Major Pairs Euro 0.6% 1.1% -0.5% % Japanese Yen 0.7% -5.8% 1.1% % British Pound 0.4% 3.2% -0.4% % Swiss Franc 0.3% 1.0% -1.1% % Australian Dollar 0.6% -4.8% 0.9% % New Zealand Dollar 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% % Canadian Dollar -2.4% -4.5% -2.5% % Dollar Index -0.2% 0.3% 0.8% % Asia Chinese Renminbi 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% % Indonesian Rupiah 0.1% -8.3% 0.1% % Indian Rupee 0.4% -0.9% -0.2% % Korean Won -0.6% 1.2% -1.1% % Malaysian Ringgit 0.6% -2.4% 0.2% % Philippine Peso -0.2% -3.5% -0.7% % Singapore Dollar 0.2% -1.3% -0.1% % Thai Baht 0.0% -5.1% -0.9% % Taiwan Dollar -0.4% -2.3% -0.9% % EMEA Czech Koruna 1.2% -5.8% -0.7% Hungarian Forint 0.8% -0.2% -0.9% Polish Zloty 1.1% 2.0% -0.4% Israeli Shekel 0.7% 1.8% -0.3% % Russian Ruble 0.4% -2.6% -0.6% % Turkish Lira 0.7% -8.8% -0.8% % South African Rand 1.1% -6.9% -1.4% % Latin America Brazilian Real 0.8% -7.5% 0.2% % Chilean Peso 0.0% -6.1% -0.7% % Mexico Peso 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% % Colombian Peso 0.7% -2.0% 0.2% 1, %

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