INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES"

Emery Lester
6 years ago
Views:

1 USD MERVAL Index STOCK MARKET INDICATORS Merval Index dropped 7.6% m/m measured in ARS and also lost 5.8% m/m in USD. Merval Argentina Index * fell.4% m/m in ARS. The difference with Merval s evolution can be explained by both APBR and TS losses. Stock traded value reached ARS 3.9 bn, -16% m/m, but +4.4% YoY. Grupo Supervielle (Banks) raised USD 5 million in the country's first IPO since Jan-014, the largest of the last ten years. Only 5 out of the 5 most traded shares increased their prices. Worst performers: APBR (-4.7% m/m) and COME (-11.8% m/m). Best performers: PAMP (+13.7%) and MIRG (+13.1%). *The Merval Argentina Index includes only Argentinean companies. Indexes Close % Change (in ARS) P/E % Change (in USD) (ARS) m/m y/y YTD (trailing) m/m y/y YTD Merval % 17.4% 8.6% % -4.6% 0.8% Merval %.7% 10.1% % -1.%.1% M.AR % 8.3%.1% % -17.6% -5.3% Merval Index Companies Code Sector Aluar ALUA Metallurgic & Siderurgic % -33.% -7.6% Petroleo Brasileiro - Petrobras APBR Oil & Gas Industry % -17.% 34.7% % -46.8% 5. Banco Macro BMA Banks % 49.7% 10.4% % -3.9%.4% Soc. Comercial del Plata COME Holdings % -10.5% -1.% % -4.5% -6.9% Consultatio CTIO Real Estate % 5.7% 3.8% % EDENOR EDN Electricity Distribution %.4% -16.5% % -1.4% -.5% BBVA Banco Francés FRAN Banks % 41.6% -0.% % -9.1% -7.5% Grupo Financiero Galicia GGAL Banks % 8.6% % 8.7% 0.7% Mirgor MIRG Automobile Industry % 607.9% 171.1% % 354.5% 151.5% Pampa Energía PAMP Holdings % 96.1% 1.9% % 5.9% 4.7% Telecom Argentina TECO Telecommunications % 9.1% % -30.4% 1.% Transener TRAN Electricity Transportation % -1.8% % -13.6% -7.4% Tenaris TS Metallurgic & Siderurgic % 13.6% 16.5% % -7.1% 8.1% YPF YPFD Oil & Gas Industry % -10.% 3.6% % -4.4% 3. IAMC Staff: General Director: Ernesto Allaria Executive Director: Lic. Mónica Erpen Economics: Lic. Mario Maydana, Lic. Pablo Sanches, Carolina Sosa Haudet IT: An. María M. Rodriguez Míguez, Lic. Rosa Santantonio, Fernando Berástegui Assistants: Adriana Vidoni, Lic. Alberto Pascual 1

2 USD BOND MARKET INDICATORS IBIAMC The IAMC Bond Index * (IBIAMC), measured in ARS, increased 1.4% from the previous month. In USD, it advanced 3,5% m/m. Best performers: inflation adjusted bonds (PR13 and DICP) and BADLAR (1) floating rate bonds (PR15, AMX8, AO17, AM17 and AS16). Worst performers: dollar-linked bonds (AJ17, AO16, AF17, BDC19). In May, most traded bonds were denominated and paid their services in USD. 1 8% 6% 4% % -% -4% -6% PAY0 DIA0 DICA PARA DICY AA46 AY4 DIY0 PARY PAA0 AA1 AA6 PAY0 DIA0 GJ17 DICA DIY0 PAA0 PARA AY4 DICY AO0 PARY AA17 AN18 AD16 AA17 GJ17 AN18 Sovereign Bonds in USD -8% May 016 May 015 1% 1 8% 6% 4% % NF18 NF18 PR13 PR13 CER Adjusted Sovereign Bonds DIP0 DICP DICP DIP0 PAP0 PAP0 PARP CUAP PARP CUAP -% May 016 May % 36% 34% 3% 8% 6% AY16 AL16 AS16 AY16 Badlar and Lebac Adjusted Sovereign Bonds AL16 AM17 AS16 AO17 AMX8 AO17 AMX9 PR15 Badlar Bonds - May 016 Lebac Bonds - May 016 Badlar Bonds - Dec. 015 Lebac Bonds - Dec. 015 AMX9 4% AM17 AM6 % AS Top Ten Traded Bonds Code Currency Annual Closing Price ** m/m % Chg Current Governing YTM Maturity Coupon (ARS, BCBA) in ARS in USD Yield Law BONAR X AA17 USD % 1.4% 6.8% Apr-17 Argentina BONAR 04 AY4 USD 8,75% %.5% 7.9% 6.4% May-4 Argentina DISCOUNT in USD - AR DICA USD 8.8% 1.4% 4.4% 7.6% 7.% Dec-33 Argentina DISCOUNT in ARS DICP ARS 5.83% % 10.6% 5.4% Dec-33 Argentina BONAD Dollar Linked AO16 USD 1.75% % 1.5% 1.8% 5.3% Oct-16 Argentina BONAR 06 AA6 USD % 3.8% 7.1% 6.8% Apr-6 New York BONAR 046 AA46 USD % 4.8% 7.4% 7.5% Apr-46 New York DISCOUNT in USD - NY DICY USD 0.75% 0 0.5%.4% 7.6% 7.% Dec-33 New York BONAD February Dollar Linked AF17 USD % 1.% 0.8% 6.9% Feb-17 Argentina BONAC July 016 AL16 ARS 0.75% % 36.5% Jul-16 Argentina The IAMC Bond Index is a composite of the most traded sovereign bonds. // ** BCBA closing price per 100 of face value, including accrued interest (dirty price) (1) Interest rate on CD of more than ARS1 million and between 30 and 35 days of maturity.

3 MARKET INDICATORS Month TRADED VALUE (USD Billion) m/m y/y YTD TOTAL % 10.5% 3.9% Shares % -44.1% 16.1% CEDEAR % -9.6% 4.5% Government Bonds % 30.4% 7.8% Corporate Bonds % 9.8% 1.7% Deferred Payment Cheks % 107.4% 115.8% Trust Funds % 143.4% -13.5% Repos and Carry-overs % -31.% -1.9% Options % % Securities Loans % -4.7% -3.7% MARKET SIZE (eop) Total Market Capitalizatioin (USD Billion) % -4-1% Domestic Market Cap (USD Billion) % 4% Domestic Market Cap. / GDP 1.4% 7.3% 5.5% 9.1% 10.% 13.4% 15% -0. pp 4 pp 1.6 pp Domestic Companies Average Free Float 31.% 31.4% 31.7% 31.% 3.4% 3.4% 3% 0.14p.p p.p p.p Listed Companies Initial Public Offerings CORPORATE PRIMARY MARKET % change Total (USD Billion) % 79.4% -6. Big Companies (USD Billion) % -9.1% SMEs (USD Billion) % 74.9% 51.3% CASH DIVIDENDS (USD Billion) Total % 69.4% Domestic Companies % 63% 89.8% Foreign Companies ,451 n/d 67% n/d 3

4 Jun-16 INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES ARS per unit of USD or EUR ARS per unit of BRL Exchange Rates: ARS per unit of foreign currency (eop) Month USD m/m YTD EUR m/m YTD BRL m/m YTD % 6.9% % 9.5% % 17.% EXCHANGE RATES ARS/USD ARS/EUR ARS/BRL During May, the Argentinean peso gained 1.9% against the USD. Still, the ARS shows a 6.9% YTD depreciation. Despite Central Bank purchases (USD 1.5 bn) and the increase of private deposits in USD, the international reserves fell to USD 30,171 bn, mostly explained by movements in the public sector. Badlar interest rate increased 69 bps. reaching 31.5%, the highest value in the last five years RETAIL INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS Inflation Expectations Survey (UTDT) 3 Consumer Price Index (CPI CABA) Consumer Price Index (CPI San Luis) Month y/y Month y/y m/m Month y/y m/m Jun-16 33% 44.4% % 4.% INTEREST RATES Lebac Badlar (Private Banks) Interbank Loan (BAIBAR) m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y p.p. 804 bps. 31.5% 69 bps bps % -36 bps bps. 5 45% 4 35% 5% 15% Inflation Expectations Survey (UTDT) Consumer Price Index (CPI CABA) Consumer Price Index (CPI San Luis) 35% 5% 15% 1 5% Lebac's Rate Interbank Loan rate (BAIBAR) Badlar Rate (private banks) Sources: Central Bank, Torcuato Di Tella University of Argentina and Thomson Reuters () BAIBAR: Buenos Aires InterBank Accepted Rate (Call Money) (3) Retail inflation expectations values are based on a poll elaborated by Torcuato Di Tella University. 4

5 Apr-14 INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES y-o-y % chg Expo & Impo (USD Bn) Trade Balance (USD Bn) ARS Bn Basis Points Primary Balance (ARS bn) FISCAL SECTOR Financial Result (ARS bn) y/y Accum. Accum. y/y y/y Accum. Accum. y/y % % % % EMBI SPREADS, eop (*) EMBI+ Argentina EMBI+ Brazil EMBI+ Latam m/m y/y YTD m/m y/y YTD % -14% 19% % 57% -3% ,0 0,0-10,0-0,0-30,0-40,0-50,0 Primary Balance EMBI+ Argentina EMBI+ Brazil EMBI+ Latam -60,0-70,0 Financial Result ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Monthly Economic Activity Estimates (EMAE) Industrial Production Index (FIEL) Month m/m sa y/y Accum. y/y Month m/m sa y/y Accum. y/y 0.0.8%.4% -0.6% -.5% -1.9% TRADE BALANCE Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Month value y/y value y/y Value Accum % % , 4,, 0, -, -4, -6, -8, -10, -1, EMAE (INDEC) Industrial Production (FIEL) 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0,0 1,0 0,0 Series3 Series Series1 1,5 1 0,5 0-0,5-1 -1,5 Sources: Central Bank of Argentina, Torcuato Di Tella University, FIEL, Ministry of Finance, National Institute of Statistics and Census and Thomson Reuters. (*) Source: JPMorgan 5

INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES

INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES USD 1 1500 1400 1300 100 1100 1000 900 800 700 Official Merval Index Implicit bonds STOCK MARKET INDICATORS Exchange rate unification The Merval index climbed 15.8% measured in ARS and 7,6% in USD. The