INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES

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Bruce Parrish
6 years ago
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1 USD Official Merval Index Implicit bonds STOCK MARKET INDICATORS Exchange rate unification The Merval index climbed 15.8% measured in ARS and 7,6% in USD. The index has had a YTD increase of 5,8% in ARS and 8,4% in USD. The Merval Argentina Index* showed a rise of 11,5% measured in ARS. The ABPR and TS evolution explains the difference between Merval and Merval Argentina. Stock traded value reached ARS 6. bn, +58% m/m and +88% YoY. Measured in ARS, only out of the 5 most traded stocks decreased their prices: MIRG (-6,99%) and YPF (-0,9%). Best performers: APBR (+33,5%), BMA (+7,39%) and EDN (+6,4%). Within the Merval s stocks, most of them increased their price in USD. *The Merval Argentina Index includes only Argentinean companies. Indexes Close % Change (in ARS) P/E % Change (in USD) (ARS) m/m y/y YTD (trailing) m/m y/y YTD Merval 14683,5 15,8% 6, 5,8% 0,3 7,6% 6, 8,4% Merval ,8 15,3% 3,4% 6,9% 18,9 7,% 3,4% 9,4% M.AR 1451, 11,5% 39,9% 13,8% 14,98 3,6% 39,9% -1,9% Merval Index Companies Code Sector Aluar ALUA Metallurgic & Siderurgic 9,60 4,7% 13,9% -18,3% 7,6 -,7% 13,9% -9,5% Petroleo Brasileiro - Petrobras APBR Oil & Gas Industry 53,60 33,5% -7,8% 79,9% -5, 4,1% -7,8% 55,1% Banco Macro BMA Banks 11,10 7,4% 88,8% 40,7% 1,36 18,4% 88,8% 1,3% Soc. Comercial del Plata COME Holdings,93 3,9% -5,5% -18,% 14,75-3,4% -5,5% -9,4% Consultatio CTIO Real Estate 36,50 5,5% 73, 9,5% 7,17-1,9% 73, -5,5% EDENOR EDN Electricity Distribution 13,15 6,4% 59,4% 5,6% 1,77 17,5% 59,4% -8,9% BBVA Banco Francés FRAN Banks 104,45 15,9% 51,1% 15,6% 13,95 7,7% 51,1% -0,3% Grupo Financiero Galicia GGAL Banks 46,15 15,8% 88,1% 5,8% 1,69 7,7% 88,1% 8,5% Mirgor MIRG Automobile Industry 1358,00-7, 533,5% 15,% 1,7-13,5% 533,5% 117,4% Pampa Energía PAMP Holdings 16,35 4,8% 131,3% 40,9% 8,98 16, 131,3% 1,5% Telecom Argentina TECO Telecommunications 56,15 13,4% 1,7% 3,8% 16,75 5,5% 1,7% 6,8% Transener TRAN Electricity Transportation 7,03 8,7% 50,9% -15, -39,98 1, 50,9% -6,7% Tenaris TS Metallurgic & Siderurgic 18,00 17,8% 8,1% 37,3% -91,76 9,5% 8,1% 18,4% YPF YPFD Oil & Gas Industry 89,00-0,9% -17,8% 31,4% 3,97-7,9% -17,8% 13,3% IAMC Staff: General Director: Ernesto Allaria Executive Director: Lic. Mónica Erpen Economics: Lic. Mario Maydana, Lic. Pablo Sanches, Carolina Sosa Haudet IT: An. María M. Rodriguez Míguez, Lic. Rosa Santantonio, Fernando Berástegui Assistants: Adriana Vidoni, Lic. Alberto Pascual 1

2 USD Official exchange rate Implicit bonds IBIAMC Index Exchange rate unification BOND MARKET INDICATORS The IAMC Bond Index * (IBIAMC), measured in ARS, increased 10,8% from the previous month. In USD, advanced 3% m/m. Best performers (in ARS): longer duration bonds (DICP +14,1%, PARY +14,1% AND AA46 +13,6%). Worst performers: inflation adjusted bonds and BADLAR (1) floating rate bonds. None of the 5 public most traded bonds showed a negative monthly price change. In June, most traded bonds were denominated and paid their services in USD. 1 5% -5% -1 PAY0 DIA0 DICY DICA AA46 PARA PAY0 AY4 DIY0 PARY GJ17 AA1 AA6 PAA0 DIA0DICA DIY0 PAA0 PARA AY4 DICY PARY AN18 AO0 AA17 AN18 GJ17 AD16 AA17 Sovereign Bonds in USD -15% June 016 June 015 1% 1 8% 6% 4% % NF18 NF18 PR13 CER Adjusted Sovereign Bonds PR13 DIP0 DICP DIP0 DICP PAP0 PARP CUAP PAP0 CUAP PARP June 016 June % 36% 34% 3% 8% 6% 4% AS16 AY16 Badlar and Lebac Adjusted Sovereign Bonds Badlar Bonds - June 016 Lebac Bonds -June 016 Badlar Bonds - June 015 Lebac Bonds - June 015 AL16 AM17 AO17 AS6 AO17 PR15 AM6 AMX8 AS16 AMX9 PR15 AM17 % m/m % Chg Current Governing Top Ten Traded Bonds Code Currency Annual Closing Price ** YTM Maturity Coupon (ARS, BCBA) in ARS in USD Yield Law BONAR X AA17 USD 7% ,7% 1, 6,8% 3, 0,74 17-Apr-17 Argentina BONAR 04 AY4 USD 8,75% ,3% 5,4% 7,5% 5,% 4, 7-May-4 Argentina DISCOUNT in USD - AR DICA USD 8,8% ,8% 3,9% 7,3% 6,8% 7,93 31-Dec-33 Argentina DISCOUNT in ARS DICP ARS 5,83% ,1% 6,1% 5, 4,% 9,07 31-Dec-33 Argentina BONAR 06 AA6 USD 7,5% ,1% 3,3% 6,9% 6,4% 6,81 -Apr-6 New York BONAR 046 AA46 USD 7,65% ,6% 5,6% 7, 7,1% 11,99 -Apr-46 New York BONAD Dollar Linked AO16 USD 1,75% 149 7,8% 0,% 1,8% 6,1% 0,31 8-Oct-16 Argentina DISCOUNT in USD - NY DICY USD 8,8% ,7% 3,8% 7,3% 6,8% 7,9 31-Dec-33 New York BONAR Badlar + 75bps AMX8 ARS 3,13% 106,75 4, -3,3% 30,1% 31,4% 1,3 1-Mar-18 Argentina BONAD Dollar Linked AM18 USD,4% ,,3%,5% 5,9% 1,60 18-Mar-18 Argentina The IAMC Bond Index is a composite of the most traded sovereign bonds. // ** BCBA closing price per 100 of face value, including accrued interest (dirty price) (1) Interest rate on CD of more than ARS1 million and between 30 and 35 days of maturity.

3 MARKET INDICATORS Month TRADED VALUE (USD Billion) m/m y/y YTD TOTAL 44,6 48, 49,3 56,4 7,7 57,,0-4,4% 10,5% 3,9% Shares 3,8 3,,0,9 4,7 3,6 0,0-6,1% -44,1% 16,1% CEDEAR 0,6 0, 0,3 0,4 0,3 0, 0,00-6,6% -9,6% 4,5% Government Bonds 6,7 30, 33,8 40,3 55,1 39,9 1,83-4,6% 30,4% 7,8% Corporate Bonds 0,5 0,6 0,5 1,5,5 1, 0,05 1,9% 9,8% 1,7% Deferred Payment Cheks 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,09-3,4% 107,4% 115,8% Trust Funds 0, 0,3 0,3 0,3 0, 0,1 10,74-7,5% 143,4% -13,5% Repos and Carry-overs 11,7 1,8 11,3 9,8 8,7 11,1 0,00-4,9% -31,% -1,9% Options 0,4 0,3 0, 0,3 0,3 0, 0,0-16,1% -38, 7,4% Securities Loans 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0, 0,01,3% -4,7% -3,7% MARKET SIZE (eop) % change Total Market Capitalizatioin (USD Billion) % -46% -5% Domestic Market Cap (USD Billion) % -11% 7% Domestic Market Cap. / GDP 13,8% 7,9% 5,9% 9,3% 10,1% 11,3% 17% 1.6 pp 5.4 pp 3. pp Domestic Companies Average Free Float 31,% 31,4% 31,7% 31,% 3,4% 3,4% 3% 0.14p.p p.p p.p Listed Companies Initial Public Offerings CORPORATE PRIMARY MARKET Total (USD Billion) 7,77 8,06 7,80 10,87 7,8 9, ,8% 86,4% 5, Big Companies (USD Billion) 7,4 7,6 7,7 10,6 7,13 8, , 10,,7% SMEs (USD Billion) 0,35 0,44 0,5 0,61 0,69 0, ,8% 6,7% 37,9% CASH DIVIDENDS (USD Billion) Total 1,7 5,4 8,7 6,3 9,7 3,8 0, % 69, Domestic Companies,4 3,3 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,6 0,01-99% -84% 85,7% Foreign Companies 19,3,1 8,1 5,6 9,0 3, 0,00 n/d n/d n/d 3

4 May-14 INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES ARS per unit of USD or EUR ARS per unit of BRL Exchange Rates: ARS per unit of foreign currency (eop) Month USD m/m YTD EUR m/m YTD BRL m/m YTD 15,07 7,6% 15, 16,73 7,3% 17,5% 4,69 0,9% 41,7% EXCHANGE RATES ARS/USD ARS/EUR ARS/BRL 5 4,5 4 3,5 3,5 1,5 During June, the Argentinean peso lost 7,6% against the USD and YTD, it already has a 15% depreciation. Also, through this month, the local currency dropped 0,9% against the real. The monthly bid volume of Central Bank Letters (Lebac) reached ARS 13 bn, -34,4%. This represents the first decrease in bidden volume compared with the previous month since October 015. However, most maturities still are within the next three months. International reserves showed no significant change during June. All of the financial system rates decreased from the previous month, although active rates still have a YoY positive variation. RETAIL INFLATION AND INFLATION EXPECTATIONS Inflation Expectations Survey (UTDT) 3 Consumer Price Index (CPI CABA) Consumer Price Index (CPI San Luis) Month y/y Month y/y m/m Month y/y m/m 33% 44,4% 5, 4,4% 4,% INTEREST RATES Lebac Badlar (Private Banks) Interbank Loan (BAIBAR) m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y 30,18% -36 p.p. 43 bps. 6,63% -463 bps. 581 bps. 7,13% -44 bps bps. 5 45% 4 35% 5% 15% Inflation Expectations Survey (UTDT) Consumer Price Index (CPI CABA) Consumer Price Index (CPI San Luis) 35% 5% 15% 1 5% Lebac's Rate Interbank Loan rate (BAIBAR) Badlar Rate (private banks) Sources: Central Bank, Torcuato Di Tella University of Argentina and Thomson Reuters () BAIBAR: Buenos Aires InterBank Accepted Rate (Call Money) (3) Retail inflation expectations values are based on a poll elaborated by Torcuato Di Tella University. 4

5 May-14 May-14 INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES y-o-y % chg Expo & Impo (USD Bn) Trade Balance (USD Bn) May-14 ARS Bn Basis Points Primary Balance (ARS bn) FISCAL SECTOR Financial Result (ARS bn) y/y Accum. Accum. y/y y/y Accum. Accum. y/y -13,7-458% -76,1-63% -4,0-353% -75,6 13% EMBI SPREADS, eop (*) EMBI+ Argentina EMBI+ Brazil EMBI+ Latam m/m y/y YTD m/m y/y YTD 518,0-0,8% -16% 18% 349,0-13% 31% -33% 675,05 10,0 0,0-10,0-0,0-30,0-40,0-50,0-60,0-70,0 Primary Balance Financial Result EMBI+ Argentina EMBI+ Brazil EMBI+ Latam ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Industrial Monthly Estimator (INDEC) Industrial Production Index (FIEL) Month y/y Accum. y/y Month m/m sa y/y Accum. y/y -4,3% -3, -,% -3,8% -1,7% TRADE BALANCE Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Month value y/y value y/y Value Accum. 5,34,66% 4,90-1,8% 0,44 350,11 6, 4,, 0, -, -4, -6, -8, -10, -1, EMI (INDEC) IPI (FIEL) 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0,0 1,0 0,0 TB Expo Impo 1,5 1 0,5 0-0,5-1 -1,5 Sources: Central Bank of Argentina, Torcuato Di Tella University, FIEL, Ministry of Finance, National Institute of Statistics and Census and Thomson Reuters. (*) Source: Thomson Reuteres and JPMorgan 5

INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES

INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE MERCADO DE CAPITALES USD 1500 1400 1300 100 1100 1000 900 800 700 MERVAL Index STOCK MARKET INDICATORS Merval Index dropped 7.6% m/m measured in ARS and also lost 5.8% m/m in USD. Merval Argentina Index * fell.4% m/m in ARS.