STOCK MARKET INDICATORS

Transcription

1 STOCK MARKET INDICATORS USD MERVAL Index End of currency Official controls Implicit The MERVAL Index jumped 5.6% measured in ARS and 6.72% in USD. The index gained 50.83% YTD in ARS and 29.17% in USD. The MERVAL Argentina Index* rose 1.82% m/m measured in ARS and 2.9% in USD. The index has also had a 28.12% YTD increase in ARS and 9.71% in USD. Stock traded value reached ARS 8.9 bn, +46% m/m. Since October 1 st, 8 new stocks were added up to the MERVAL index (AGRO, CARC, CECO2, CELU, CEPU, JMIN, TECO2 and TRAN). Market capitalization of domestic companies was USD 67.6 bn, +1.2% m/m. *The MERVAL Argentina Index includes only Argentinean companies. Indexes Close % Change (in ARS) P/E % Change (in USD) (ARS) m/m y/y YTD (trailing) m/m y/y YTD Merval % 41.32% 50.83% % % 29.17% Merval % 46.70% 53.64% % -7.68% 31.57% M.AR % 22.68% 28.12% % % 9.71% IAMC Staff General Director: Ernesto Allaria Executive Director: Lic. Mónica Erpen Economics: Lic. Mario Maydana, Lic. Pablo Sanches, Carolina Sosa Haudet IT: An. María M. Rodríguez Miguez, Lic. Rosa Santantonio, Fernando Berástegui Assistants: Adriana Vidoni, Lic. Alberto Pascual

2 STOCK MARKET INDICATORS Merval Index Companies Code Sector Close % Change (in ARS) P/E % Change (in USD) (ARS) m/m y/y YTD (trailing) m/m y/y YTD Agrometal AGRO Agribusiness 24,60 22,1% 652,3% 232,4% -678,59 23,4% 373,5% 184,7% Aluar ALUA Metallurgic & Siderurgic 10,40-1,9% 4,6% -11,5% 24,40-0,8% -34,1% -24,2% Banco Macro BMA Banks 115,00-3,3% 38,8% 45,8% 10,70-2,3% -12,6% 24,8% BBVA Banco Francés FRAN Banks 100,85-0,1% -0,9% 13,5% 12,55 0,9% -37,7% -2,8% Carboclor CARC Oil & Gas Industry 4,10 6,2% 108,1% 57,7% -3,62 7,4% 31,0% 35,0% Celulosa CELU Paper and Cellulose 23,75 2,4% 174,6% 140,1% -4,60 3,5% 72,8% 105,6% Central Costanera CECO2 Electricity Generation 10,85 9,3% 164,6% 129,4% -117,04 10,4% 66,6% 96,4% Central Puerto CEPU Electricity Generation 175,80-8,0% 139,2% 87,0% 14,90-7,0% 50,6% 60,2% Consultatio CTIO Real Estate 41,70-5,2% 88,8% 25,1% 10,64-4,2% 18,8% 7,2% Cresud CRES Agribusiness 26,80-1,7% 54,0% 51,0% -9,59-0,6% -3,1% 29,3% EDENOR EDN Electricity Distribution 19,30 30,4% 50,8% 55,0% -22,79 31,8% -5,1% 32,7% Grupo Financiero Galicia GGAL Banks 47,10 0,2% 30,5% 28,4% 11,88 1,3% -17,9% 9,9% Holcim (Argentina) JMIN Construction Industry 30,10-16,4% 207,4% 138,8% -1199,27-15,5% 93,4% 104,5% Mirgor MIRG Automobile Industry 449,00-1,6% 263,6% 150,1% 3,56-0,6% 128,8% 114,2% Pampa Energía PAMP Holdings 20,55 6,5% 55,7% 77,2% 11,65 7,6% -2,0% 51,7% Petroleo Brasileiro - Petrobras APBR Oil & Gas Industry 87,50 23,5% 162,8% 193,6% -8,42 24,8% 65,4% 151,4% San Miguel SAMI Agribusiness 124,00-1,0% 183,2% 158,7% 21,08 0,1% 78,2% 121,5% Siderar ERAR Metallurgic & Siderurgic 9,38 3,2% 26,5% 16,4% 20,11 4,3% -20,4% -0,3% Soc. Comercial del Plata COME Holdings 3,34 10,2% -2,3% -6,7% 33,90 11,4% -38,5% -20,1% Telecom Argentina TECO2 Telecommunications 56,80 1,4% 11,3% 28,4% 24,88 2,5% -30,0% 9,9% Tenaris TS Metallurgic & Siderurgic 214,20-0,6% 27,1% 34,9% -69,12 0,4% -20,0% 15,6% Transener TRAN Electricity Transportation 11,30 19,6% 66,2% 36,6% -14,92 20,8% 4,6% 17,0% YPF YPFD Oil & Gas Industry 268,35-3,5% -6,8% 22,9% 258,69-2,5% -41,3% 5,3%

3 USD Official IBIAMC Index End of currency controls BOND MARKET INDICATORS The IAMC Bond Index * (IBIAMC) lost 0.1% since the previous month, measured in ARS although it gained 1% in USD Implicit 10 out of the 25 top traded bonds increased their price. The Treasury bonds in ARS with a fixed coupon overperformed, in terms of yield, compared with the rest. Worst performers: USD denominated bonds with long durations. In October, the Government issued two new fixed rate bonds (TO23, TO26) and one CPI linked bond (TC20). Top Ten Traded Bonds** Code Currency Annual Coupon Closing Price *** m/m % Chg (ARS, BCBA) in ARS in USD Current Yield Maturity Govering Law Treasury Bond in ARS Fixed Rate 2018 TS18 ARS 21.20% % 4.01% 20.60% 20.17% Sep-18 Argentina Treasury Bond CER Adjusted 2021 TO21 ARS 18.20% % 3.59% 17.27% 17.22% Oct-21 Argentina DISCOUNT BOND in ARS - Arg DICP ARS 5.83% % 2.97% 4.87% 3.84% Dec-33 Argentina BONAR X AA17 USD 7.00% % 0.83% 6.87% 2.67% Apr-17 Argentina BONAR 2024 AY24 USD 8.75% % 1.33% 7.51% 5.01% May-24 Argentina BONAR 2026 AA26 USD 7.50% % -1.40% 6.83% 6.21% Apr-26 New York DISCOUNT BOND in USD - Arg DICA USD 8.28% % -1.76% 7.38% 6.91% Dec-33 Argentina DISCOUNT BOND in USD - NY DICY USD 8.28% % -1.56% 7.37% 6.88% Dec-33 New York PAR BOND in USD - NY PARY USD 2.50% % -3.89% 3.62% 6.93% Dec-38 New York BONAR 2046 AA46 USD 7.63% % -2.35% 6.98% 7.00% Apr-46 New York YTM * The IAMC Bond Index is a composite of the most traded sovereign bonds. The methodology of this index is in: ** Price Time Priority under the standard period (T+3) *** BCBA closing price per 100 of face value, including accrued interest (dirty price).

4 BOND MARKET INDICATORS YTM, effective annual 7% 2% -3% -8% -13% GJ17 AN18 AA17 AD16 AN18 AY24 AA21 AO20 Sovereign Bonds in USD AY24 DIA0 DICY AA26 DICA DIY0 DIA0 DICA DIY0 PAY0 PARA AA46 PARY PAA0 PAA0 PARA PARY DICY PAY0 AA17 GJ17-18% YTM, effective annual 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% NF18 NF18 CER Adjusted Sovereign Bonds PR13 PR13 TC21 DIP0 DIP0 DICP DICP PAP0 PAP0 CUAP PARP PARP CUAP 1% Fixed and Badlar rate Sovereign Bonds YTM, effective annual PR14 29% AMX9 PR15 AO17 PR15 27% AMX9 AM17 AMX8 25% AM20 AO17 Badlar Bonds - Oct 2016 AS16 23% AM17 Badlar Bonds - Oct 2015 TM18 21% Fixed Bonds - Oct % TS18 17% TO26 TO21 TO23 15%

5 MARKET INDICATORS Month % change TRADED VALUE (USD Billion) m/m y/y YTD TOTAL 44,6 48,2 49,3 56,4 72,7 57,2 7,89-4,1% -5,8% 19,2% Shares 3,8 3,2 2,0 2,9 4,7 3,6 0,59 47,4% -1,3% 107,8% CEDEAR 0,6 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,02 99,3% -12,6% 94,0% Government Bonds 26,7 30,2 33,8 40,3 55,1 39,9 6,03-8,1% 3,4% 20,9% Corporate Bonds 0,5 0,6 0,5 1,5 2,5 1,2 0,21-6,7% -10,1% 93,9% Trust Funds 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,1 6,85-41,8% -63,8% -48,6% Repos and Carry-overs 11,7 12,8 11,3 9,8 8,7 11,1 0,97 2,7% -36,1% -13,9% Options 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,03 100,5% -14,6% 130,2% Securities Loans 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,2 0,04-45,0% 50,5% -11,5% MARKET SIZE (eop) Total Market Capitalizatioin (USD Billion) % -30% 9% Domestic Companies Market Cap (USD Billion) % -21% 14% Domestic Companies Market Cap. / GDP 13,9% 8,0% 5,9% 9,4% 10,2% 11,3% 12,5% -0,2 pp 0,1 pp 0,9 pp Domestic Companies Average Free Float 31,2% 31,4% 31,7% 31,2% 32,4% 32,4% 32% 0,01p.p. -1,3p.p. -0,7 p.p Listed Companies Initial Public Offerings CORPORATE PRIMARY MARKET Total (USD Billion) 7,77 8,06 7,80 10,87 7,82 9, ,9% 32,3% 42,2% Big Companies (USD Billion) 7,42 7,62 7,27 10,26 7,13 8, ,9% 42,6% 47,2% SMEs (USD Billion) 0,35 0,44 0,52 0,61 0,69 0, ,3% -37,5% -2,7% CASH DIVIDENDS (USD Billion) Total 21,7 25,4 8,7 6,3 9,7 3,8 0,01-94% -94% -88% Domestic Companies 2,4 3,3 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,6 0,01-94% -94% 15,8% Foreign Companies 19,3 22,1 8,1 5,6 9,0 3,2 0,00 n/d - n/d

6 ECONOMY ARS per unit of USD or EUR EXCHANGE RATES Exchange Rates: ARS per unit of foreign currency (eop) Month USD m/m YTD EUR m/m YTD BRL m/m YTD % 15.8% % 17.0% % 43.8% ARS per unit of BRL ARS/USD ARS/EUR ARS/BRL 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 In October, the peso gained 1% against the USD. During this year, the currency has depreciated 15.75%. The Central Bank continued cutting down its monetary policy interest rate (Lebac) by 38 bps m/m. The Central Bank announced that in 2017, the 7-day-repo rate will be its monetary policy rate. According to the BCRA targets, the 2017 inflation must be between 17% and 12%. October s inflation was 2,4% m/m and core inflation 1,8% m/m (above Central Bank s target). Industrial production tumbled 7,9% m/m and reached a 4% of loss so far this year. RETAIL INFLATION & INFLATION EXPECTATIONS Inflation Expectations Survey 3 Consumer Price Index (CABA) Consumer Price Index (San Luis) Month y/y Month y/y m/m Month y/y m/m 28% 44.7% 2.9% 40.0% 1.7% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Inflation Expectations Survey (UTDT) Consumer Price Index (CPI CABA) Consumer Price Index (CPI San Luis) 17% 12% 2017 Inflation Target Lebac Badlar (Private Banks) 1 Interbank Loan (BAIBAR) 2 m/m y/y m/m y/y m/m y/y 26.75% -38 p.p. 136 bps % -44 bps. -88 bps % -44 bps. -50 bps. 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Lebac's Rate Interbank Loan rate (BAIBAR) Badlar Rate (private banks) INTEREST RATES Sources: Central Bank, Torcuato di Tella University and Thomson Reuters 1 Interest rate on CD of more than ARS1 million and between 30 and 35 days of maturity. 2 BAIBAR: Buenos Aires InterBank Accepted Rate (Call Money). 3 Retail inflation expectations values are based on a poll elaborated by Torcuato Di Tella University.

7 Sep-14 Sep-14 ECONOMY Primary Balance (ARS bn) Financial Result (ARS bn) y/y Accum. Accum. y/y y/y Accum. Accum. y/y % % % % EMBI+ Argentina EMBI+ Brazil EMBI+ Latam m/m y/y YTD m/m y/y YTD % -9% 3% % -24% -40% ARS Bn 10,0 0,0-10,0-20,0-30,0-40,0-50,0-60,0-70,0-80,0-90,0 Primary Result Financial result Basic Points EMBI+ Argentina EMBI+ Brazil EMBI+ Latam 100 EMI (INDEC) IPI (FIEL) EMAE (INDEC) y/y Accum. y/y y/y Accum. y/y y/y Accum. y/y -7.9% -4.0% -7.1% -4.6% -5.8% -2.3% Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Month value y/y value y/y Value Accum % % , YoY % change 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -8,0% -10,0% EMI (INDEC) IPI (FIEL) EMAE (INDEC) Expo & Impo (USD Bn) TB Expo Impo Trade Balance (USD Bn) Sources: Central Bank, Torcuato di Tella University, FIEL, Ministry of Finance, National Institute of Statistics and Census, Thomson Reuters and JP Morgan