Daily Currency outlook
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- Percival Allison
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1 28 March 2018 Daily Currency outlook PRODUCT 1 Other Product offerings Mo n th ly C u r r e n cy an d T h e m atic r e p o r ts Recommendation in the report C u r r e n cy p air C o n tr act Actio n Pr ice T ar g e t Sto p lo s s Du r atio n C u r r e n cy US $INR EUR JPY A ctio n S ell Buy US$INR A pril futures Sell days Click here... PRODUCT 2 Research Analysts Amit Gupta amit.gup@icicisecurities.com Gaurav Shah Gaurav.shah@icicisecurities.com
2 Forex and global equities CURRENCY OUTLOOK Spot Currency C u r r e n cy C lo s e Pvs. C lo s e % C h an g e Rupee US$ index EuroUS $ G BPUS$ US $JPY A UDUS$ US $C HF The rupee fell against the US$ on the back of concerns over rising crude oil prices as well as the US President s plan to impose tariff to counter rising trade deficit with major trading partners should The US$ ideally posted begin a mild recovery to worry against ECB, majors as even it would as US equities ended sharply lower. A hawkish Fed as well as tariff undermine inflation growth in the Eurozone rhetoric continued to puzzle investors while safe haven currency like JPY gained mildly. As expected, the US$ has some near term supports at 88.0 level while strength in the Euro and British Pound undermines US rate hike prospects Global Equity Indices In d ice s C lo s e Pvs. C lo s e % C h an g e Dow Jones Na s da q FTS E DA X Ha ngs a ng Nikkei SG X Nifty Equity benchmarks settled higher for a second consecutive session amid range bound consolidation supported by positive global cues. The Nifty settled at 10184, up 54 points or 0.5% The broader markets outperformed as the Nifty midcap and small cap indices rose 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively. As a result, the market breadth remained positive at 3:1 *Asian equity indices at 8.00 am March 28, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 2
3 Debt and FII activity Benchmark yield C lo s e Pvs. C lo s e % C h an g e India 10-yr US 10-yr Eur 10-yr UK 10-yr JPY 10-yr Sovereign bond yields declined sharply as the central government intends to lower its quantum of bond buying in the first half of FY19 owing to higher yields, which reduced concerns on a demandsupply mismatch US 10-year yields also fell sharply to 2.78% amid rising concerns over the US President s plan to impose tariffs that could impact the global growth rate if US major trading partners also retaliate Commodities C lo s e Pvs. C lo s e % C h an g e G old C opper Brent Spot gold declined on profit booking owing to receding concerns over trade tariffs. However, gold may continue to find support due to expected inflation growth as well as tariff led concerns in near term Crude oil remained unchanged ahead of US government weekly stocks data. American Petroleum Institute showed US inventories rose by 5.32 mb last week while government data is expected today FII Activity Se g m e n t Pu r ch as e Se ll Ne t cr o r e s Equity Debt Foreign institutional investors (FII) were net sellers to the tune of 524 crore in the previous session FIIs have been net buyers to the tune of almost 4331 crore in March 2018 March 28, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 3
4 INR futures and Outlook Currency futures on NSE ch n g (%) C o n tr acts L T P ch n g (%) OI V o l OI V ol A pril May A pr-may May-June The near-month dollar-rupee April contract on the NSE was at The April contract open interest increased 2.42% from the previous day c We expect the US$INR to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the pair to initiate short positions Pivot levels Fu tu r e s Pivo t S1 S2 R1 R2 US$INR (A pr) US$INR (May) EURINR (A pr) EURINR (May) G BPINR (A pr) G BPINR (May) JPY INR (A pr) JPY INR (May) US$INR Strategy US $INR Ap ril fu tu re s co n tra ct (NS E ) V ie w: B e a rish o n US $INR S ell U S $INR in the range of Mark et L ot: U S $1000 Target: / S top L os s : S upport R es is tance S 1/ S 2: / R 1/R 2:65.20 /65.30 March 28, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 4
5 US$INR Spot currency US$INR Spot Strategy Update Date C u r r e n cy Str ate g y Re c. T ar g e t SL (P/L )* C o m m e n t 27-Mar-18 p air US$INR Sell future Not initiated March 28, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 5
6 Open Recommendations Date Currency Product Strategy Recommendation price Target Stoploss Time frame 6/30/2017 EURJPY Currency thematic Buy EURINR & Sell JPYINR months 7/28/2017 Rupee Currency thematic Sell US$INR months Back... March 28, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 6
7 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai March 28, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 7
8 DISCLAIMER Disclaimer: The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Limited. The author may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. ICICI Securities Services Ltd (I-Sec) may be holding a small number of shares/ an open position in the above referred companies as on the date of release of this report." This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICI Securities Ltd and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. ICICI Securities Ltd may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities Ltd and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. March 28, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 8
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