GE Shipping (GESHIP) Striking valuation. Result Update. Rs 262 WHAT S CHANGED. Valuation. February 8, Rating matrix.

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1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Strong Buy Target : Rs 37 Target Period : 1 months Potential Upside : 4% Key Financials (Rs Crore) FY9 FY1E FY11E FY1E Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit February, 1 GE Shipping (GESHIP) Rs 6 WHAT S CHANGED PRICE TARGET... Changed from Rs 99 to Rs 37 EPS (FY11E)... Changed from Rs 54.6 to Rs 41.9 EPS (FY1E)...Introduced at Rs 5.5 RATING...Changed from OUTPERFORMER to STRONG BUY Valuation summary FY9 FY1E FY11E FY1E PE (x) Target PE (x) EV to EBITDA(x) Price to book (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Market Capitalisation Rs 399. crore Debt (Q3FY1) Rs 556. crore Cash (Q3FY1) Rs crore EV Rs 591 crore 5 week H/L (Rs) 3 / 143 Equity capital Rs 15.3 crore Face value Rs. 1 MF Holding (%) 14.3 FII Holding (%) 1.3 Price movement (Nifty vs. GE) Feb-9 Jun-9 Oct-9 Feb-1 Analyst s name NIFTY Bharat Chhoda bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com Jehangir Master jehangir.master@icicisecurities.com Prerna Jhunjhunwala prerna.jhunjhunwala@icicisecurities.com GE Striking valuation Great Eastern Shipping (GE) reported 6.6% growth in topline, which came in at Rs 76.3 crore. It was achieved on the back of higher operating days and firm freight rates in Q3FY1 as compared to the previous quarter. GE s performance stands out as compared to other shipping companies. The company has managed to deliver an admirable performance despite a volatile freight rate environment. GE is also ramping up its fleet (especially in offshore segment), which will be scaled up to 7 vessels in FY1 from the present 17 vessels. Total fleet size will increase to 74 vessels in FY1 from the present 5 vessels. With firmness in freight rates, going ahead, the performance of GE is set to improve. Further, new deliveries are expected to join the fleet over the next two years. In FY1, GE would be operating at peak capacity and the full impact of the same would be visible in the financials. We are changing our rating on GE from OUTPERFORMER to STRONG BUY. Performance improves on the back of higher utilisation, firm rates GE s performance in Q3FY1 improved as its consolidated revenue increased by 6.6% to Rs 76.3 crore on the back of a rise in revenue days, which rose to 34 days as against 36 days in QFY1. TCE per day for dry bulk carriers as well as product carriers increased to Rs 964 and Rs as compared to Rs 1765 and Rs 165 in QFY1. Excluding extraordinary profit on sale of ship of Rs 53. crore in QFY1, PAT in Q3FY1 has been higher by 7.6% a significant improvement in performance. Valuation Factoring in FY1E earnings, GE is trading at a significant discount to its fair value and the stock is likely to get re-rated. We have valued GE on multiple valuation parameters to arrive at price target of Rs 37. We are changing our rating from OUTPERFORMER to STRONG BUY. Exhibit 1: Performance Highlights Q3FY1 Q3FY1E Q3FY9 QFY1 YoY Gr. (%) QoQ Gr.(%) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Reported PAT EPS (Rs)

2 Exhibit : Topline improves backed by higher utilisation level, firm rates GE reported 6.6% growth in topline backed by higher utilisation levels and firm vessel rates During Q3FY1, revenue days increased to 34 as compared to 36 days in QFY1 During Q3FY1, TCE per day for dry bulk carriers as well as product carriers increased to Rs 964 and Rs as compared to Rs 1765 and Rs 165 in QFY1 Rs. Cr QFY9 Q3FY9 Q4FY9 Q1FY1 QFY1 Q3FY1 After dipping to 5.4% in QFY1, the operating margin has since improved to.% on account of a rise in topline combined with drop in charter hire charges With a gradual recovery in tanker rates, the operating margin for GE is set to improve over the next few quarters Exhibit 3: Operating margin improves on higher freight rates, drop in charter hire charges Rs.Cr % % 47% 36% % 16.4 % QFY9 Q3FY9 Q4FY9 Q1FY1 QFY1 Q3FY1 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % 1% % EBITDA OPM PAT declined by 13.% in Q3FY1 to Rs 94.4 crore as against Rs 1.5 crore in QFY1. However, the decline in PAT has been arrested and PAT for Q4FY1 is likely to come in higher due to rise in realisations Another noteworthy aspect is that PAT in QFY1 also included profit on sale of ship of Rs 53. crore. Excluding that GE has reported a higher PAT in Q3FY1. This indicates that the performance has improved on a QoQ basis Exhibit 4: Excluding gains on sale of ship in QFY1, PAT from operations reports significant improvement Rs.Cr QFY9 Q3FY9 Q4FY9 Q1FY1 QFY1 Q3FY1 Page

3 Exhibit 5: Improvement in operating parameters Revenue days Revenue days have improved from 36 days in QFY1 to 34 days in Q3FY1 on the back of higher utilisation level of its fleet QFY1 Revunue Days Q3FY1 Exhibit 6: Improvement in operating parameters Average TCE TCE for product tankers increased while it dropped with respect to crude tankers In the case of dry bulk vessels, TCE showed significant strength TCE $/day Crude Product Dry Bulk QFY1 Q3FY1 Exhibit 7: Present fleet At present, GE operates a fleet of 5 vessels of which 41 vessels consist of shipping vessels (bulk+lpg+product+crude) and 17 consist of offshore vessels (AHTS+OSV) No. of vessels Crude Product LPG Dry Bulk Rig AHTS OSV Page 3

4 Exhibit : Fleet in FY1 post capex completion The existing fleet will be scaled up to 74 vessels consisting of 47 shipping vessels and 7 offshore vessels With the rise in offshore vessels, GE will have a balanced and diversified fleet, which will be less impacted by market fluctuations Further, with an improved outlook for offshore freight rates on the back of improved crude oil prices, the revenue growth visibility also improves significantly for GE No. of vessels Crude Product LPG Dry Bulk Jack-up Rig 13 1 AHTS 15 PSV Page 4

5 Detailed valuation GE is one of the best performing shipping companies in India and is aggressively expanding its fleet especially in the offshore segment. This will drive growth for the company over the next two years At the current price level, GE is trading at a significant discount to its fair value, which does not factor in the improved earnings scenario emerging over the next two years We have changed our valuation matrix to FY1E as against our earlier price recommendation based on FY11E financials. Further, new deliveries are expected to join the fleet over the next two years and in FY1, GE would be operating at peak capacity and the full impact of the same would be visible in the financials. Factoring in FY1E earnings, GE is trading at a significant discount to its fair value and there is a strong likelihood of the stock getting re-rated. We have valued GE on multiple valuation parameters i.e. EV/EBITDA, P/BV and P/E multiples to arrive at price target of Rs 37, which is at a steep discount to its global peers. We are changing our rating on GE from OUTPERFORMER to STRONG BUY. Exhibit 9: Valuation parameters Valuation based on Global average Target multiple Target price(rs) PE multiple (x) EV/EBITDA Price to book value (x) Average target price (Rs.) 37 Current market price (Rs) 6 Upside (%) 4 Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 1: Valuations Sales Sales Growth EPS EPS Growth PE EV/EBIDTA RoNW RoCE (Rs. cr) (%) (Rs.) (%) (x) (X) (%) (%) FY1E FY11E FY1E Exhibit 11: Revised estimates Old New FY11E FY1E FY11E FY1E Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Page 5

6 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe Domestic Peers G.E Shipping Sales (Rs. Crore) EPS (Rs.) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code GESHIP CMP (Rs.) 6 FY1E Target (Rs.) 37 FY11E MCap 39.4 % Upside 4 FY1E Mercator Lines Sales (Rs. Crore) EPS (Rs.) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code MERLIN CMP (Rs.) 55 FY1E Target (Rs.) 74 FY11E MCap 19. % Upside 35 FY1E Varun Shipping Sales (Rs. Crore) EPS (Rs.) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code VARSHI CMP (Rs.) 5 FY1E Target (Rs.) 4 FY11E MCap 75. % Upside - FY1E Aban Offshore Sales (Rs. Crore) EPS (Rs.) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code ABALLO CMP (Rs.) 117 FY1E Target (Rs.) 144 FY11E MCap 46.1 % Upside FY1E Garware Offshore Sales (Rs. Crore) EPS (Rs.) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code GARSHI CMP (Rs.) 1 FY1E Target (Rs.) 1 FY11E MCap % Upside -3 FY1E Great Offshore Sales (Rs. Crore) EPS (Rs.) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code GREOFF CMP (Rs.) 47 FY1E Target (Rs.) 43 FY11E MCap 151. % Upside 6 FY1E Bharati Shipyard Sales (Rs. Crore) EPS (Rs.) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Idirect Code BHASHI CMP (Rs.) 97 FY1E Target (Rs.) 369 FY11E MCap 19.7 % Upside 4 FY1E Global Peers P/BV (x) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) Company Country CY CY9E CY1E CY CY9E CY1E CY CY9E CY1E CY CY9E CY1E Dry Bulk/Tankers Teekay Corp.* USA Diana Shipping* USA Genco Shipping* USA Dry Ships* USA Frontline Ltd* Norway G.E Shipping# India Mercator Lines# India *consensus # FY Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Page 6

7 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Outperformer, Performer, Hold, and Underperformer. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: % or more; Buy: Between 1% and %; Add: Up to 1%; Reduce: Up to -1% Sell: -1% or more; ANALYST CERTIFICATION Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 7th Floor, Akruti Centre Point, MIDC Main Road, Marol Naka Andheri (East) Mumbai 4 93 research@icicidirect.com We /I, Bharat Chhoda MBA (FINANCE) Jehangir Master ACA Prerna Jhunjhunwala MBA (FINANCE) research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc. Disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees ( ICICI Securities and affiliates ) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return of investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities and its affiliates might have managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. ICICI Securities and affiliates might have received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities and affiliates expect to receive compensation from the companies mentioned in the report within a period of three months following the date of publication of the research report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed that Bharat Chhoda MBA (FINANCE) Jehangir Master ACA Prerna Jhunjhunwala MBA (FINANCE) research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include earnings from Investment Banking and other business. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. It is confirmed that Bharat Chhoda MBA (FINANCE) Jehangir Master ACA Prerna Jhunjhunwala MBA (FINANCE) research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. ICICI Securities and affiliates may act upon or make use of information contained in the report prior to the publication thereof. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. This report has not been prepared by ICICI Securities, Inc. However, ICICI Securities, Inc. has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Page 7

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