Daily Currency outlook
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1 16 March 2018 Daily Currency outlook PRODUCT 1 Other Product offerings Mo n th ly C u r r e n cy an d T h e m atic r e p o r ts Recommendation in the report C u r r e n cy p air C o n tr act Actio n Pr ice T ar g e t Sto p lo s s Du r atio n C u r r e n cy G BPINR EUR JPY A ctio n Buy Buy US$INR March futures Buy days PRODUCT 2 Click here... Research Analysts Amit Gupta amit.gup@icicisecurities.com Gaurav Shah Gaurav.shah@icicisecurities.com
2 Forex and global equities CURRENCY OUTLOOK Spot Currency C u r r e n cy C lo s e Pvs. C lo s e % C h an g e Rupee US$ index EuroUS $ G BPUS$ US $JPY A UDUS$ US $C HF The rupee snapped a three-day gain as most emerging market currencies traded weaker amid risk aversion spurred by hawkish US trade rhetoric. Investors are awaiting India February trade data should The US$ ideally remainedbegin largely unchanged, to worrytrading ECB, flatas after itadvancing would 0.5% on Thursday for its biggest rise in the week. While GBP and undermine inflation growth in the Eurozone Euro were overshadowed by losses against JPY. Incoming US economic advisor Larry Kudlow supports strong action against China while supporting trade tariff Global Equity Indices In d ice s C lo s e Pvs. C lo s e % C h an g e Dow Jones Na s da q FTS E DA X Ha ngs a ng Nikkei SG X Nifty Equity benchmarks settled the volatile session on a subdued note. The Nifty ended the session at 10360, down 51 points or 0.5%. Sectorally, all sectors ended in the red weighed by profit booking in recently rallied media & PSU banking stocks Broader markets continued to outshine, as the Nifty midcap & small cap gained 0.4% & 0.85%, respectively, with positive A/D ratio at 1.5:1 *Asian equity indices at 8.00 am March 16, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 2
3 Debt and FII activity Benchmark yield C lo s e Pvs. C lo s e % C h an g e India 10-yr US 10-yr Eur 10-yr UK 10-yr JPY 10-yr Sovereign bonds bounced after the fall of the last two sessions. Talks on raising FII limits in bonds found momentum US 10-year yields declined to 2.83% as concerns rose over slippage in retail sales growth as well as trade cross border related concerns Commodities C lo s e Pvs. C lo s e % C h an g e G old C opper Brent FII Activity Se g m e n t Pu r ch as e Se ll Ne t cr o r e s Equity Debt Spot gold declined in yesterday s trade as well even though safe haven currency like JPY rose. Gold is awaiting cues from upcoming Fed s FOMC policy meeting Gains in crude oil halted and are likely to head for a weekly loss as investors weighed surging US crude production against a warning from the IEA of an impending shortfall in global supplies later this year Foreign institutional investors (FII) were net buyers to the tune of 705 crore in the previous session FIIs have been net buyers to the tune of almost 8290 crore in March 2018 March 16, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 3
4 INR futures and Outlook Currency futures on NSE ch n g (%) C o n tr acts L T P ch n g (%) OI V o l OI V ol March A pril Mar-A pr A pr-may The near month dollar-rupee March contract on the NSE was at The March contract open interest declined 1.44% from the previous day c We expect the US$INR to find support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the pair to initiate long positions Pivot levels Fu tu r e s Pivo t S1 S2 R1 R2 US$INR (Mar) US$INR (A pr) EURINR (Mar) EURINR (A pr) G BPINR (Mar) G BPINR (A pr) JPY INR (Mar) JPY INR (A pr) US$INR Strategy US $INR Ma rch fu tu re s co n tra ct (NS E ) V ie w: B u llish o n US $INR B uy U S $INR in the range of Mark et L ot: U S $1000 Target: / S top L os s : S upport R es is tance S 1/ S 2: / R 1/R 2:65.20 /65.40 March 16, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 4
5 US$INR Spot currency US$INR Spot Strategy Update Date C u r r e n cy Str ate g y Re c. T ar g e t SL (P/L )* C o m m e n t 14-Mar-18 p air US$INR Sell future Not initiated March 16, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 5
6 Open Recommendations Date C u r r e n cy Pr o d u ct Str ate g y Re co m m e n d atio n p r ice T ar g e t Sto p lo s s T im e fr am e 6/30/2017 EURJPY Currency thematic Buy EURINR & Sell JPY INR months 7/28/2017 Rupee Currency thematic Sell US$INR months 15/02/2018 G BPINR Positional Currency Buy G BPINR March future month 9/3/2018 US$INR Monthly currency Sell US$INR month 9/3/2018 JPY INR Monthly currency Buy JPY INR month Back... March 16, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 6
7 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai March 16, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 7
8 DISCLAIMER Disclaimer: The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Limited. The author may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. ICICI Securities Services Ltd (I-Sec) may be holding a small number of shares/ an open position in the above referred companies as on the date of release of this report." This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. ICICI Securities Ltd and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. ICICI Securities Ltd may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities Ltd and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. March 16, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. Retail Equity Research 8
Daily Currency outlook
28 March 2018 Daily Currency outlook PRODUCT 1 Other Product offerings Mo n th ly C u r r e n cy an d T h e m atic r e p o r ts Recommendation in the report C u r r e n cy p air C o n tr act Actio n Pr
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June 6, 2018 Daily Currency outlook PRODUCT 1 Other Product offerings Recommendation in the report Currency pair Contract Action Price Target Stoploss Duration US$INR June futures Buy 67.18 67.46 67.04
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June 26, 2018 Daily Currency outlook PRODUCT 1 Other Product offerings Recommendation in the report Currency pair Contract Action Price Target Stoploss Duration US$INR June futures Sell 68.23 67.97 68.38
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