ORDER NOW SAMPLE. Q / As of March 31, 2018 Financial Market Guidebook
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1 ORDER NOW Q / As of March 31, 2018 Financial Market Guidebook
2 Diversification is a key component of a well-balanced investment portfolio Source:Barclays, Bloomberg, FTSE, MSCI, NAREIT, Russell, Standard & Poor's Asset Class Proxies: Small Cap = Russell 2000 Index; High Yield = Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corp High Yield Index; Large Cap = S&P 500 Index; Commodity = Bloomberg Commodity Index; Emerging Market Equity = MSCI Emerging Market Index; REITs = FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index; Fixed Income = Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; Developed Market Equity = MSCI EAFE Index; Cash = Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Mo. T-Bill; 60/40 Alloc = 60% MSCI All Country World Index and 40% Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index All data is total return data for that calendar year; Avg. Ann. = Average annual total returns over period shown; Average = Average returns across all components per year. Data is as of December 31, 2017; Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Indices are not available for investment. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. ANNUAL ASSET CLASS RETURNS Avg. Ann. EM EM EM Fixed EM EM Small Small EM EM REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs Equity Equity Equity Income Equity Equity Cap Cap Equity Equity 55.8% 31.6% 34.0% 35.1% 39.4% 5.2% 78.5% 28.0% 8.3% 18.2% 38.8% 30.1% 3.2% 21.3% 37.3% 17.3% Small EM EM High Small Fixed Large Large Large High DM Comdty Comdty Cash REITs REITs Cap Equity Equity Yield Cap Income Cap Cap Cap Yield Equity 47.3% 25.6% 21.4% 32.1% 16.2% 1.8% 58.2% 26.9% 7.8% 18.1% 32.4% 13.7% 1.4% 17.1% 25.0% 13.0% DM DM DM DM DM 60/40 DM EM High DM DM Fixed Fixed Large Large Small Equity Equity Equity Equity Equity Alloc. Equity Equity Yield Equity Equity Income Income Cap Cap Cap 38.6% 20.2% 13.5% 26.3% 11.2% -24.0% 31.8% 18.9% 5.0% 17.3% 22.8% 6.0% 0.5% 12.0% 21.8% 13.0% Small Small 60/40 High Comdty Large Small 60/40 Small Small Large REITs REITs REITs Cash Comdty Cap Cap Alloc. Yield Cap Cap Alloc. Cap Cap Cap 37.1% 18.3% 12.2% 18.4% 8.6% -26.2% 28.0% 16.8% 2.1% 16.3% 11.3% 4.9% 0.0% 11.8% 14.6% 11.3% High High 60/40 Large Fixed Small Small High Large High 60/40 DM EM 60/40 DM Cash Yield Yield Alloc. Cap Income Cap Cap Yield Cap Yield Alloc. Equity Equity Alloc. Equity 29.0% 11.1% 6.3% 15.8% 7.0% -33.8% 27.2% 15.1% 0.1% 16.0% 7.4% 3.6% -0.8% 11.2% 14.4% 10.3% Large Large Large 60/40 Large Large Large 60/40 High High 60/40 High High Comdty REITs REITs Cap Cap Cap Alloc. Cap Cap Cap Alloc. Yield Yield Alloc. Yield Yield 28.7% 10.9% 4.9% 13.0% 5.5% -35.6% 26.5% 15.1% -2.5% 15.8% 2.5% 2.5% -2.3% 8.5% 7.5% 10.3% 60/40 Small High Large 60/40 60/40 Small 60/40 Small 60/40 60/40 Comdty Cash Cash Cash REITs Alloc. Cap Yield Cap Alloc. Alloc. Cap Alloc. Cap Alloc. Alloc. 23.9% 9.7% 4.6% 11.8% 4.8% -37.0% 21.3% 8.9% -4.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% -4.4% 4.4% 5.2% 6.9% 60/40 High DM DM Fixed Fixed EM High Fixed Fixed Fixed Comdty Cash Cash REITs Comdty Alloc. Yield Equity Equity Income Income Equity Yield Income Income Income 20.6% 9.1% 3.0% 4.8% 1.9% -37.7% 18.9% 7.8% -12.1% 4.2% -2.0% -2.2% -4.5% 2.6% 3.5% 4.2% Fixed Fixed High Fixed Small DM Fixed Fixed EM DM EM DM Comdty Cash Comdty Comdty Income Income Yield Income Cap Equity Income Income Equity Equity Equity Equity 4.1% 4.3% 2.7% 4.3% -1.6% -43.4% 5.9% 6.5% -13.3% 0.1% -2.6% -4.9% -14.9% 1.0% 1.7% 1.4% Fixed EM EM Cash Cash Comdty REITs Cash Cash Comdty Comdty Comdty Comdty Cash Cash Cash Income Equity Equity 1.0% 1.2% 2.4% 2.1% -15.7% -53.3% 0.1% 0.1% -18.4% -1.1% -9.5% -17.0% -24.7% 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% Average 28.6% 14.2% 10.5% 16.4% 7.7% -28.4% 29.6% 14.4% -2.7% 11.5% 10.1% 3.7% -4.6% 9.0% 13.2% 8.9%
3 Growth of Wealth: Asset return impacts over time $500,000 $450,000 $423,525 Allocation Period Returns* ASSET ALLOCATION 15-Yr 1-Yr 5-Yr 10-Yr 15-Yr StdDev 100% Stocks 21.8% 15.8% 8.5% 9.9% 16.3% $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $380,005 80% Stocks / 20% Bonds 18.2% 13.1% 7.6% 8.8% 13.6% 50% Stocks / 50% Bonds 12.7% 8.9% 6.3% 7.0% 9.5% 20% Stocks / 80% Bonds 7.2% 4.8% 4.9% 5.3% 5.3% 100% Bonds 3.5% 2.1% 4.0% 4.1% 2.6% $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $178,725 $133,566 $92,928 *Note: Stocks are represented in this table using the S&P 500 Index Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index Period returns above are calculated as of 12/31/2017 StdDev = Standard Deviation $50,000 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 U.S. Equities Global Equities Commodities Bonds 1-Yr CD Note: Growth of Wealth chart as of 3/31/ Yr Average CD Rate vs. the Consumer Price Index (Inflation) Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Inflation (LHS) CD Rate (RHS) Recent CD Rate History* Q Month 0.35% 0.31% 0.23% 0.19% 0.23% 0.24% 0.29% 6-Month 0.54% 0.48% 0.34% 0.35% 0.39% 0.41% 0.47% 1-Year N/A 0.80% 0.59% 0.62% 0.70% 0.67% 0.69% 3-Year 1.22% 1.11% 0.94% 1.00% 0.99% 0.94% 0.98% 5-Year 1.66% 1.47% 1.22% 1.40% 1.53% 1.37% 1.36% *Note: Rates displayed are as of the period end Rates are national average rates sourced from Bankrate.com Source: Bloomberg, Barclays, Standard and Poors', Bankrate.com Asset returns tables and charts are hypothetical, are for illustrative purposes only, and do not represent actual performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of futures results. Indices are not available for investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. U.S. Equities = S&P 500 Index; Global Equities = MSCI All Country World Index; Bonds = Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; 1-Yr CD = National average 1-Yr CD yield
4 S&P 500 Index - Monthly Prices 1929 to Present U.S. EQUITY SECULAR "BULL" MARKET PATTERN Mar-30 Mar-35 Mar-40 Mar-45 Mar-50 Mar-55 Mar-60 Mar-65 Historically, and as represented by this chart, U.S. equity prices have followed periods of consolidation or secular "bear" market conditions with notable, long-term periods of price advances. Trough to Peak "Bull" Market: Jul to Mar ,226% Advance Trough to Peak "Bull" Market: July to Feb % Advance Mar-70 Mar-75 Mar-80 Mar-85 Mar-90 Mar-95 Mar-00 Mar-05 Mar-10 Mar-15 Source: Standard & Poor's; Bloomberg Returns are based on monthly index prices only and do not include dividends. The data and chart are for illustrative purposes only and past returns are not indicative of future performance. Indices are not available for investment. Data as of 1929 through Mar 2018; Trough to Peak "Bull" Market data is month-end price return data taken during the periods stipulated.
5 U.S. EQUITY RETURNS & MAJOR DRAWDOWNS 34% 26% 15% 17% 1% 26% 15% 2% 12% 27% 26% 4% 7% 20% 31% 27% 20% 26% 9% 3% 14% 4% 23% 13% 13% 30% 11% 10% 19% -17% -10% -18% -17% -7% -13% -8% -9% -8% -8% -7% -20% -6% -6% -5% -2% -9% -3% -8% -11% -19% -12% -10% -17% -13% -23% -14% -8% -7% -8% -10% -16% 0% -19% -10% -6% -7% -1% -12% -11% -3% -30% -28% -34% -34% -38% -49% Dec-81 Dec-84 Dec-87 Dec-90 Dec-93 S&P 500 Index Calendar Year Price Returns & Intra-Year Declines to 2017 Average annual price return over period shown: 10.1% Average intra-year decline over period shown: -13.1% Median intra-year decline over period shown: -10.5% Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08 Dec-11 Dec-14 Source: Standard & Poor's; Bloomberg Returns are based on index price only and do not include dividends, Intra-year drawdowns refer to the largest peak to trough percentage drop during the course of a given year. The data and chart of for illustrative purposes only and past returns do not guarantee future performance. Data as of 1980 through 2017
6 ASSET / SECTOR / COUNTRY RETURNS (%) Key Asset Class Returns (%) - Q U.S. Equity Sector Returns (%) - Q Global Bond Sector Returns (%) - Q Gold MSCI Emerg. Mkts Index Technology Consumer Discretionary Financials 3.5 BBG Barc Asia-Pac Sov BBG Barc Pan-Europe Sov BBG Commodities Index S&P 500 Index BBG Barc US HY Corp MSCI EAFE Index Health Care Industrials Utilities Real Estate Materials BBG Barc US HY Corp BBG Barc US Treasury BBG Barc US MBS BBG Barc US Agg Index FTSE NAREIT Index Energy Consumer Staples Telecom JPMorgan EM Bond BBG Barc US Inv Grd Corp Top Thirty Country Index Returns (%) - Q For the first time in multiple quarters, we are seeing a lot of red (negative returns) on this page of the guidebook as global equity volatility has returned. Due in part to relative valuations and a weakening U.S. dollar, emerging market equities continued to lead their developed market counterparts BBG = Bloomberg; Barc = Barclays; EM = Emerging Markets; Agg = Aggregate; HY = High Yield; US = United States Gold return represented by the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD); JP Morgan EM Bond return represented by the ishares JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) U.S. Equity Sector returns represented by the eleven S&P 500 Index sector indices
7 S&P 500 Quarterly Operating Earnings & Estimates $44 S&P 500 Sector Quarterly Operating Earnings & Estimates U.S. CORPORATE EARNINGS $39 $34 $29 $24 $19 $14 $9 Note: Shaded area represent quarterly consensus estimates $ $1 Q4 2018: $41.84 $18 S&P consensus estimates S&P consensus estimates Actual operating earnings $15 Q4 2017: $33.86 $12 $9 $6 $3 $0 -$3 -$6 -$9 Q1 '15 Q4 '15 Q4 '16 Q4 '17 Q4 '18 Cons Disc Cons Stpls Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Info Tech Materials Telecom Utilities Real Estate Midcap/Smallcap - Quarterly Operating Earnings & Estimates Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q1 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 S&P 400 Midcap Index $17.81 $19.79 $18.23 $22.28 $22.50 $26.56 $28.11 $28.80 S&P 600 Smallcap Index $7.19 $7.70 $7.85 $8.45 $10.06 $12.51 $13.28 $14.66 S&P consensus estimates Source: Standard & Poor's (S&P)
8 GLOBAL PROFITABILITY - RETURN ON EQUITY (%) MSCI All-Country World Index Source: MSCI; Bloomberg MSCI United States Index Dec-15 Dec E Dec Jun Mar Dec PL MSCI Emerging Markets Index Dec Jun Mar Dec M Dec MSCI EAFE Index Jun Mar SA After surging since mid-2016, profitability has begun to level off a bit. Profitability levels have yet to rebound back to their post-crisis highs Mar-15 Jun-15 Dec-16
9 CURRENCY EFFECTS ON GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS U.S. Dollar Index - With Peak-to-Trough U.S. Dollar & Major Equity Index Price Returns /00-2/ DXY +8.8% EAFE -26.3% EM -0.3% SPX -16.2% Data on this page indicates the emerging markets are negatively correlated with strength in the U.S. Dollar, while the EAFE negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar is somewhat less pronounced. Other data shows that a strong Dollar is typically good for U.S. markets; Yen and Pound weakness are historically good for the Nikkei and the FTSE 100, respectively. 12/16-3/18 DXY -12.0% EAFE +19.1% EM +35.8% SPX +18.0% Nikkei Index vs. U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen Cross Mar-01 DXY = U.S. Dollar Index EAFE = MSCI EAFE Index EM = MSCI Emerging Markets Index SPX = S&P 500 Index Aug-01 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 3/08-2/09 DXY +22.6% EAFE -51.1% EM -54.8% SPX -44.4% Oct-05 Mar-06 2/02-3/08 DXY -39.7% EAFE +85.4% EM % SPX +19.5% Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 2/09-11/09 DXY -14.9% EAFE +56.3% EM +90.9% SPX +49.0% Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 FTSE Apr-01 Jan-02 Oct-02 Jul-03 Apr-04 Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Oct Oct-10 11/09-5/10 DXY +15.6% EAFE -12.5% EM -2.8% SPX -0.6% Mar-11 Aug-11 5/10-4/11 DXY -15.8% EAFE +31.8% EM +30.0% SPX +25.2% Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 4/11-12/16 DXY +40.1% EAFE -6.3% EM -28.4% SPX +64.2% Oct-15 Aug-16 Jan-17 Nov-17 Nikkei Index (LHS) Equity Index / Currency Correlations 5-Yr. 10-Yr. 17-Yr. S&P 500 Index vs U.S. Dollar MSCI EAFE Index vs. U.S. Dollar MSCI Emerging Markets Index vs. U.S. Dollar *Nikkei Index vs. Japanese Yen *FTSE 100 Index vs. British Pound *Due to the manner in which the Japanese Yen and British Pound are quoted relative to the U.S. Dollar, rising Yen values represent Yen weakness and rising Pound values represent Pound strength. Thus, the Nikkei is highly correlated with Yen weakness and the FTSE 100 is negatively correlated with Pound strength. Data in table as of 3/31/2018. FTSE 100 Index vs. British Pound/U.S. Dollar Cross Apr-01 Jan-02 Oct-02 Jul-03 Apr-04 Jan-05 Oct-05 Jul-06 Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 US Dollar/Japanese Yen (RHS) Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Index (LHS) British Pound/US Dollar (RHS) Jan-17 Oct Source: Standard & Poor's, MSCI, Bloomberg EM = MSCI Emerging Markets Index; EAFE = MSCI EAFE Index; SPX = S&P 500 Index; DXY = U.S. Dollar Index Note - Returns shown are price returns based on end-of-month prices; Data 12/31/2000 through 3/31/2018
10 S&P 500 Index Current Year Forward P/E GLOBAL EQUITY PRICE-TO-EARNINGS (P/E) RATIO MSCI EAFE Index Current Year Forward P/E MSCI EM Current Year Forward P/E Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 SPX Forward PE Rolling 10yr Avg. MSCI EAFE Forward PE Rolling 10yr Avg. MSCI EAFE Forward PE Rolling 10yr Avg. Global Equity Markets - Forward Price to Earnings vs. 10-yr Median Current Forward P/E 10-year Median S&P 500 Index Sectors - Forward Price to Earnings vs. 10-yr Median Current Forward P/E 10-year Median S&P 400 Midcap Index - Trailing Price to Earnings History Dec yr Median S&P 600 Smallcap Index - Trailing Price to Earnings History Dec yr Median Source: Standard & Poor's, MSCI, Bloomberg; EM = MSCI Emerging Markets; EAFE = MSCI EAFE; ACWI = MSCI All Country World Index; Global equity regions outside the U.S. are represented by MSCI indices
11 10-Yr Treasury Bond Yield - Long Term It appears, the long-term yield downtrend is at risk of being broken. We will look for a sustained breakout above the consolidation range before confirming. 10-Yr Treasury Bond Yield - Short Term TREASURY YIELDS & INFLATION Mar-96 Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Monthly Yield Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar Month Rolling Avg. Mar-12 Mar-14 4/14/17 4/29/17 5/14/17 5/29/17 6/13/17 6/28/17 7/13/17 7/28/17 8/12/17 8/27/17 9/11/17 Daily Yield 9/26/17 10/11/17 10/26/17 11/10/17 11/25/17 12/10/17 50-Day Rolling Avg. 12/25/17 1/9/18 1/24/18 2/8/18 2/23/18 3/10/18 3/25/18 CPI ex Food and Energy (Core) & Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core) , 6 & 12 Month Treasury Bill Yields- Short Term Fed rate hikes have helped push up short-term rates in a steady fashion Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Core CPI Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Core PCE Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr /14/17 5/14/17 6/14/17 7/14/17 A daily look at the 10-year Treasury yield shows that the market may have overreacted to the expectation of sustained inflation. Interest rates have recently begun to come down. Equity market volatility of late has added to the demand for more safe-haven Treasury exposure. Average over period shown: Core CPI: 2.0% / PCE Core: 1.7% Core inflation has ticked up in recent months, although calling this a trend may be premature. 8/14/17 9/14/17 10/14/17 11/14/17 12/14/17 12M TBill 6M TBill 3M TBill 1/14/18 2/14/18 3/14/18 Source: Bloomberg; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Policy Calendar Federal Reserve Target Funds Rate - e.g. Fed Funds Rate (%) Votes Probability of Rate (%) For Against Direction Rate Hike Sep None Nov None Dec Tightening Jan None Mar Tightening May 2 TBD TBD 25.7% Jun 13 TBD TBD 79.4% Aug 1 TBD TBD 80.7% Note: Probability of a Rate Hike based on Fed Funds Futures implied probability as of 3/31/ U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE Fed rates expected to tick up slowly. Implied probabilities indicate the FOMC could hike rates again in June. U.S. Unemployment & Underemployment Rates (%) Mar-96 Mar-98 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar FOMC Members Fed Funds Target Rate Dot Projections Longer-Term 2019 Hi Hi Median Hi Median Low Hi Median Low Median Low Federal Reserve Balance Sheet - Total Assets ($ in trillions) Low Source: Bloomberg; U.S. Federal Reserve; Burea of Labor Statistics FOMC Dot Projections as of 3/21/2018 Underemployment % Unemployment % Apr-09 QE 1 Begins Nov-09 QE 1 Ends $2.1T balance sheet Jun-10 QE 2 Begins Jan-11 QE 2 Ends $2.8T balance sheet FOMC = Federal Open Market Committee (Fed Fund rate setting committee) Aug-11 Mar-12 QE 3 Begins Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 QE 3 Ends $4.5T balance sheet This charts illustrates the Federal Reserve's recently announced plan to reduce the amount of Treasury and mortgage bonds on its balance sheet. Jul-14 Feb-15 Nov-16 Jan-18 Aug-18 Forecasted Reduction 24 Months Mar-19 Oct-19
13 Correlations: Monthly stock returns and interest rate dynamics, January March 2018 S&P 500 Index price returns, 10-Yr. Treasury yield, rolling 3-year correlations Correlations ABOVE the 0.00 line indicate a POSITIVE relationship between 10-yr yield movements and stock price returns. INTEREST RATES AND EQUITY RETURN RELATIONSHIP The correlation between stocks and interest rates seem to indicate that rising rates above 4% have historically had negative ramifications for stock prices. We believe the 10-yr Treasury yield may stay materially below 4% over the near-to-intermediate term Correlation coefficient Correlations BELOW the 0.00 line indicate a NEGATIVE relationship between 10-yr yield movements and stock price returns Yr Treasury Yield (%) Source: Bloomberg, Standard & Poor's Returns calculated are monthly price returns only and do not include dividends. Correlations are calculated over 3-year periods Data as of March 31, 2018
14 Q1 YTD 3-Yr 5-Yr WTI Near Month Futures Price ($/bbl) Segment Returns (%) Yr Annual Return Annual Return BBG Commodity Index Oil prices have trended higher given OPEC's BBG Energy Index stated production cuts. We contend that the BBG Industrial Metals Index specter of U.S. supply could keep price gains BBG Precious Metals Index contained. BBG Grains Index BBG Softs Index COMMODITY SNAPSHOT US Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Steel Near Month Futures Price ($/ton) Henry Hub Natural Gas Near Month Futures Price ($/MMBtu) Despite the extended cold weather, abundant natural gas supply has suppressed prices in that market Spot Gold price per Troy Oz. Spot Gold Annual Returns $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 Gold was one of the few assets that performed well during the financial crisis. We believe gold may have a place in individual investor portfolios. However, the asset's price is volatile and gold allocations should not dominate an overall diversified strategy. 17.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 24.7% $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Nov-90 Dec-91 Jan-93 Feb-94 Mar-95 Apr-96 May-97 Jun-98 Jul-99 Aug-00 Sep-01 Oct-02 Nov-03 Dec-04 Jan-06 Feb-07 Mar-08 Apr-09 May-10 Jun-11 Jul-12 Aug-13 Sep-14 Oct-15 Nov % 5.5% 18.0% 23.0% 31.0% 5.1% 25.5% 29.4% 10.1% 7.1% 8.0% 13.5% -7.7% -5.7% -1.9% -4.6% -5.5% -1.4% -10.6% -22.2% Gold Stats - over period shown: Average annual return: 5.3% Standard deviation: 14.7% % Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 The Trump Administration's call for import tariffs have put a firm bid under steel prices of late. BBG = Bloomberg; Price charts as of the date of this publication. Gold annual returns as of 2017 year end. Source: Bloomberg
15 U.S. Real GDP YoY % Chg Annualized Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis -0.9 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Dec Dec U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Source: Conference Board Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 U.S. ECONOMIC DATA COMPILATION U.S. Industrial Production Index Source: Federal Reserve Dec-14 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Feb-18 U.S. Construction Spending YoY % Chg Source: U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Existing Home Sales - Millions of units Source: National Association of Realtors U.S. Domestic Auto Sales SAAR - Millions of units Source: Ward's Automotive Group Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Feb-17 Jul Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Oct-16 May Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Nov-16 Jan-18 U.S. 30-day Credit Card Delinquencies - % Source: Bloomberg 6 U.S. Household Fin. Obligigations - % of disposable income Source: Federal Reserve Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Source: U of Michigan Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Nov-16 Jan Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Apr
16 Global Purchasing Managers' Composite (Manufacturing & Services) Index Feb-18 Jan-18 Nov-17 Oct-17 Aug-17 Jul-17 GLOBAL MANUFACTURING & SERVICES MOMENTUM May-17 Apr-17 Feb-17 Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 May-16 Global Developed Mkts Emerging Mkts U.S Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain U.K Russia Japan China India Brazil U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Nov-16 Jan-18 On a global basis, manufacturing and services economy improvement/strength has been evident since mid- U.S. ISM Services PMI 30 Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Nov-16 Jan-18 Source: Institute for Supply Management; Markit; JP Morgan
17 DISCLOSURES AND DEFINITIONS Important Disclosures: This material is not intended as and should not be used to provide investment advice and is not an offer to sell a security or a recommendation, to buy a security. This summary is based exclusively on an analysis of general market conditions and does not speak to the suitability of any specific proposed securities transaction. All opinions and views mentioned in this report constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time. We will not advise you as to any change in figures or views found in this report. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own professional advisers, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be suitable to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Except for the historical information contained in this report, certain matters are forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to such factors and considerations such as general market volatility, global economic risk, geopolitical risk, currency risk and other country-specific factors, fiscal and monetary policy, the level of interest rates, security-specific risks, and historical market segment or sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle. This commentary has been prepared for YOUR FIRM NAME by Bower Hill Capital Management (Bower Hill ), a registered investment adviser in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Securities offered through BROKER-DEALER (if applicable), Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through YOUR FIRM NAME, a registered investment advisor and separate entity from BROKER-DEALER. Index Definitions: The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization weighted index of 500 leading large-cap companies in multiple sectors and industries of the U.S. economy. S&P also compiles individual indices separating the broader index into eleven sectors. Those sectors are: S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary, S&P 500 Consumer Staples, S&P 500 Energy, S&P 500 Financials, S&P 500 Health Care, S&P 500 Industrials, S&P 500 Materials, S&P 500 Real Estate, S&P 500 Technology, S&P 500 Telecom, and S&P 500 Utilities. The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. MSCI also compiles float-adjusted market capitalization indices that represent major countries and regions of the world. Those represented in this report include: MSCI United States, MSCI Europe ex United Kingdom, MSCI United Kingdom, MSCI Canada, MSCI Japan, MSCI Asia-Pacific ex Japan, MSCI Latin America, and MSCI Emerging Europe/Middle East/Africa. The Russell 2000 Index is a market capitalization weighted index that measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-relates and corporate securities, mortgagebacked passthrough securities, and other agency and non-agency asset-backed and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon US Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. The Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, high-yield fixed rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody s Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes US dollar denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-us industrial, utility, and financial issuers. The Bloomberg Barclays US MBS Index tracks agency mortgage-backed pass-through securities guaranteed by GNMA, FNMA and FHLMC. The index is constructed by grouping individual TBA-deliverable MBS pools into aggregates or generics based on program, coupon and vintage. The Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index measures US dolar denominated, fixed-rate, nominal debt issued by the US Treasury. Treasury bills are excluded from the index. The Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Aggregate Index tracks fixed-rate, investment-grade securities issued in the following European currencies: euro, British pounds, Norwegian krone, Danish krone, Swedish krone, Czech koruna, Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and Slovakian koruna.
18 DISCLOSURES AND DEFINITIONS Index Definitions (continued): The Bloomberg Barclays Asia Pacific Aggregate Index contains fixed-rate, investment-grade securities denominated in Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Malaysian ringgit, New Zealand dollar, Singapore dollar, South Korean won, and Thai baht. The FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index is a free float adjusted market capitalization weighted index that includes all tax-qualified REITs listed in the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ National Market. The Bloomberg Commodity Index and related sub-indices are composed of futures contracts on physical commodities and represents twenty two separate commodities traded on U.S. exchanges, with the exception of aluminum, nickel, and zinc. Bloomberg also compiles various commodity futures subindices that include the following: Bloomberg Energy - crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline, and natural gas. Bloomberg Industrial Metals - aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc. Bloomberg Precious Metals - gold and silver. Bloomberg Grains - corn, soybeans, and wheat. Bloomberg Softs - coffee, cotton, and sugar. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is a trust that invests in underlying gold bullion. Less the trust's expenses, the price of the ETF can be expected to move in close concert with the spot price of gold. The ishares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of the US dollar-denoiminated J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index. Global Country Indices represented on page 6 of this report - EGX 30 Index (Egypt), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Malaysia), Prague Stock Exchange Index (Czech Republic), Madex Free Float Index (Morocco), Stock Exchange of Thai Index (Thailand), Taiwan Taiex Index (Taiwan), Peru General Index (Peru), Strait Times Index (Singapore), Austrian Traded Index (Austria), NZX All Index (New Zealand), Chile Stock Mkt Select (Chile),Nikkei 225 (Japan), Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), CSI 300 Index (China), Kospi Index (South Korea), AEX Index (Netherlands), Athex Composite (Greece), S&P 500 Index (United States), FTSE/JSE Africa All Share (South Africa), ISE National 100 Index (Turkey), Jakarta Composite (Indonesia), Irish Overall Index (Ireland), FTSE 100 Index (United Kingdom), Budapest Stock Exchange Index (Hungary), BSE Sensex 30 Index (India), All Ordinaries Index (Australia), Tel Aviv 100 Index (Israel), S&P/TSE Composite Index (Canada), WSE WIG 20 Index (Poland), PSEi Philippine SE Index (Philippines).
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