Bratislava City Report

Transcription

1 Bratislava City Report Q City Reports

2 Millions Economy & Investment Key facts Annual GDP growth (%) Real GDP growth grew above expectations in the first half of Averaging at 0.9% quarterly it is forecast to grow 3.5% in 2016, making Slovakia one of the fastest growing economies in the Eurozone Positive dynamics in the labour market should encourage solid growth in private consumption The downward trend in unemployment has continued, with the EU harmonized rate dropping to 9.5% in August, the lowest level since the end of 2008 Inflation is expected to return into positive territory by the end of the year and average 1.4% in 2017 Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate (August 2016) Government Consumption (2016 forecast) 2.3% 9.5% Investment Volumes Private Consumption (2016 forecast) 2.8% 3.5% Source: Slovak Statistical Office, Oxford Economics GDP Growth (2016 forecast) 8% 5% 3% 0% -3% -5% Investment Market Prime Yields Forecast Source: Oxford Economics A large number of transactions are in DD across the office, retail and industrial sectors. At least 5 deals scheduled to close until the end of the year. The total investment volume in first three quarters of 2016 reached approximately 400 million. Two major transactions closed in Q3 2016: Korzo shopping centre in Prievidza (another acquisition by NEPI followed by acquisition on Aupark Piestany in October), NEPI now important retail vendor in Slovakia with a portfolio of 4 assets Carlton Hotel and Savoy Offices historical operating landmarks in Bratislava city center bought by local HNWIs Forecast F Retail 6.0%

3 Office Market Stock & Vacancy In Q2, Bratislava s A and B class office stock amounted to million, of which, 58.5% is represented by A class and 41.5% by B class Twin City blocks B and C were the only buildings delivered to the market in the third quarter There is currently more than 244,000 of new A class office space under construction, located mostly in the Bratislava I district By the end of 2016, we expect another 21,200 of new office space to be completed The overall vacancy rate in Bratislava has decreased further to 6.78% from 7.43% in the previous quarter. It is historically the lowest level since 2008 Existing stock (million ) & U/C Supply ( 000 ) Existing stock (millions) U/C Supply (thousands) 2017 (F) Vacancy rate by districts Transactions Bratislava I Bratislava II Bratislava III Bratislava IV Bratislava V 4.35% 7.53% 13.08% 2.35% 7.32% Transactions volume District Total Take-up Largest Transaction Expansion BA I 12,714 3,203 New Lease BA II 15,952 4,632 Renegotiation BA III 4,369 2,203 *Thousand BA V 1,570 1,200

4 Retail Market Key facts The total Slovak retail stock comprises approximately 1.6 million Although the density of modern retail stock in Bratislava achieved the highest level in CEE, two gigantic projects have been announced for the coming years: Stanica Nivy with approx. 70,000 and the Eurovea Extension with approx. 25,000 Regions with a lower density of retail stock are becoming increasingly attractive for developers The improving economy and strong market confidence has been reflected in the retail real estate market from the start of the year and the current economic situation supports the expansion of both existing retailers and new entrants Retail Stock by format in Slovakia Retail format % share Avg Size (sqm) Shopping Centre and Retail Park distrubution 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Shopping Centre Retail Park Rents ( / / month - Bratislava) Concept Store 0.57% 4,600 Department Store 2.74% 7,422 Factory Outlet 0.92% 15,000 Retail Gallery 2.37% 4,818 Retail Park 17.05% 7,709 Shopping Centre 76.36% 20, Total % 14,403 Shopping Centre Retail Parks High Street Slovak Retail Stock (thousand ) by Region Purchasing Power per Inhabitant 11,100 11,200 7,800 7,850 7,650 7,700 7,400 7,450 7,250 7,300 7,050 7,100 6,550 6,100

5 Industrial Market Key facts Under Construction & New Supply The total A class industrial Stock in the Slovak Republic totals 1.68 million Q brought more than 100,000 of new industrial space to the Greater Bratislava area 119, % 78.4% 10.5% 7.96% Several new premises are under construction with a total leasable area of almost 120,000, located mainly in Greater Bratislava but also in the regions The overall vacancy rate in Slovakia has increased to 4.81% from 3.81% in the previous quarter 101, % Stock, Take-up & Vacancy ,129 Prime Rents ( / /month) Greater Bratislava % % 2.49% 2.13% Western Slovakia Central Slovakia Take-up (Thousand ) Stock (Thousand ) Eastern Slovakia Vacancy (%) Vacancy Rate development Take-up Split 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Q3 88.4% 11.6% Greater Bratislava Regions New Take-up Renewals

6 Miroslav Barnáš Managing Director +421 (0) miroslav.barnas@eu.jll.com Peter Nitschneider National Director +421 (0) peter.nitschneider@eu.jll.com Ján Bošácky Senior Research Analyst +421 (0) jan.bosacky@eu.jll.com Featured Research: Slovak Industrial Market Q Slovak Office Market Q COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.