Denmark Market Report Q3 2016
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1 Denmark Market Report Q ECONOMY Decent consumption and export growth Revised calculations from Statistics Denmark show that the gross domestic product grew by, % in the second quarter of when adjusted for seasonal and price development. The economic growth was supported by continued growth in government and household consumption and exports. This is the second consecutive quarter of positive growth. The growth in the first half of compared to the first half of has only been, %, due to the decline in in growth in the second half of. The improvement was helped along by higher real wages as a result of very low inflation. In recent months the labour market has been under intense scrutiny, as employment has declined over the summer months. The decline in employment reflects an increase in the private sector and a slightly larger decline in the public sector. Historically, the labour market data is uncertain during the summer, so there is a large probability that the decline is an isolated case and not a trend reversal. In general, the labour market continues to be strong, and the low unemployment levels increase the risks of bottlenecks for firms. Overall, the key figures for the Danish economy show that we are in a prolonged period of low growth of almost % in, which is expected to increase to almost % in the coming years. It should be mentioned that there are major regional differences underlying the overall figures, with as the major driving force for growth. As a small open economy, Denmark is influenced relatively strongly by the economic development of its major trading partners and the overall development of the world economy. The past months have been characterized by relatively calm financial markets. Uncertainty about the future continues to influence the economy negatively, despite low oil prices and interest rates. The negative effects of the UK s withdrawal from the EU has not yet made its mark, and it is uncertain how great an impact it will have. International turmoil has caused great uncertainty about global growth and has negatively affected the Danish economy. Annual real GDP growth You may quote from this report provided the source is acknowledged. Decisions in relation to real estate should always be assessed thoroughly, and all parties should thus examine the market in detail. Notwithstanding that we have examined and reviewed the information in the report with great care, Colliers International Danmark disclaims any responsibility for losses based on information in this report. % Joseph Alberti Research Analyst Cand Polit. joseph.alberti@colliers.com Phone Exchange rates (November ) DKK per units of foreign currency EUR > 7 USD > 7 GBP > 8 SEK > 7 NOK > statistikbanken.dk and Danmarks Nationalbank Note: 8 are based on estimates.
2 INVESTMENTS Transaction volume % higher than in The transaction volume in the first half of was DKK 8, billion, or approximately % higher than the same period last year. Preliminary figures indicate that the third quarter also has had relatively high activity. This bodes well for the year as a whole, as transaction volumes in the fourth quarter have historically been above average. The transaction volume is expected to reach almost DKK billion for the entire year, which represents an increase of approximately % compared to. The residential sector accounted for the vast majority of the investments in the second quarter, largely due to investments from real estate companies and funds. Prime retail properties have also had increased interest and international investors are expected to continue to focus on this particular segment. Established international investors continue to invest in Danish properties, and new international actors are always appearing. Despite historic low yield requirements of.% and.% for prime retail and prime office properties respectively, the commercial property market holds a strong position, mainly due to historically low interest rates and a relatively stable economy. Denmark is particularly attractive for investors seeking a safe haven for their assets. Transaction volume DKK bn 8 7 ' '7 '8 '9 ' Source: Colliers International Note: is based on estimates. Danish interest rates 8 7 ' ' ' ' ' ' Interest rates have fallen to very low levels and the money market rate has been negative since January. The yield on the Danish -year government bond is still very low and has fallen to exactly % during the month of August. The European Central Bank has signaled that its interest rate will not be reduced further and therefore stable official interest rates are expected over the next few years. The stable, low interest rates, along with access to capital, remains one of the main reasons for the large investments in the property market month money market interest rate Bond rate -year government bond Q transaction volume by property type Annual inflation % 7 % Residential 8 % 8 % % Office Retail Industrial Other Source: Colliers International Denmark EU Source: Eurostat Denmark Market Report Q INVESTMENT Colliers International
3 RESIDENTIAL Rising prices but apartment construction slowdown Prices of houses and condominiums have increased annually in all regions the last consecutive quarters. Compared to a year ago, house prices have risen on average by. % while condominiums have risen by 8. % on average. House price growth was strongest in the Capital Region with.9 % while prices of apartments have increased the most in North Denmark Region with 9. %. The rise in housing prices is not only a phenomenon seen in the largest cities but is something affecting the entire country. Yield requirements have remained stable in the last quarter, but there is still downward pressure on them. Square meters living space per person as of April Politically, property taxes have been focused on lately, since they are to be negotiated as part of an overall tax reform. In addition, the new property assessment system is being processed and is expected to be completed and presented in early 9. Property taxes act as an automatic stabilizer for the housing market and the economy in general. In their most recent quarterly report, Danmarks Nationalbank analyzed housing prices in order to examine whether there is a housing price bubble building up. They found that there is nothing to suggest that the Danish housing market is facing a housing price bubble on a national level, but there are several factors which suggest that the housing market is at risk in. increase demand for rental housing. Lærernes Pension has invested over million. kr. in 9 rental apartments in the old freight train area in, which will be named Østeråparken. This is the pension fund's first real estate investment outside of and. is a growing and developing city, which has made the investment attractive for Lærernes Pension. Construction will start in late and is expected to be completed June 8. Price index for sales of real property in ordinary free trade House price index (=) (=) Condominiums Denmark Single family homes EU Source: Eurostat Denmark Market Report Q RESIDENTIAL Colliers International
4 OFFICE New trends in the office market Increasingly, offices are being converted to housing that can meet the growing demand in cities. More families are choosing to stay in cities after finishing their secondary education, which means that Denmark is one of the countries in the EU experiencing the greatest urbanization rate. To meet the growing demand for housing, property owners with older office properties are creating residential units by converting their commercial property. This can be a sound financial decision, as the vacancy rate for housing is significantly lower than for office at the moment. The trend of serviced offices is a trend which has penetrated the market. They cater for everything from small creative companies to the modern corporate office hotels. More serviced offices are continually entering the market, and they have lower and lower vacancy rates. Finally, several serviced offices have been able to charge higher rental prices. This is yet another sign that the corporate culture is changing to match the needs and requirements for mobility and flexibility that modern businesses have. Vacancy per region in Denmark (%) Total office vacancy rate (%) Office vacancy rate, July The number of employed workers fell slightly by fewer full-time employees from June to July. However, in the past year employee employment has increased by over thousand persons, and by over thousand persons since April. The slight decline from June to July can not be seen as an expression of a trend reversal as labour market statistics are notoriously uncertain over the summer months. The vacancy rate for office space increased nationwide by. percentage points and was thus 8. % per year as of July. The increase has been strongest in the North Denmark Region where the vacancy rate has increased from 7. % to 8. %, which corresponds to approximately 9 thousand m² of vacant office space Source: Oline-ED Statistikken Market rent for office space, September DKK per sqm a year operations not included Construction company Mogens de Linde bought the property Kuglegården on the old naval station Holmen after a public tender. The buildings have been owned by the Danish Defense since the 7s and increases the construction company s portfolio on Holmen. The property was sold for DKK million for, m² across buildings. Employment,8,,,,,,9,8 Office yield, September.%,8.7%,7.7%,7.%,.7%.7%, 8 9 Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Note: Modern and old properties in prime locations Denmark Market Report Q OFFICE Colliers International
5 RETAIL Historically low vacancy New restaurants have visibly changed street life, and pushed down the vacancy rate for retail space. This is not only a phenomenon in and, provincial towns have also experienced a marked dining scene growth. While increased trade over the internet has had a negative effect on retail vacancy levels, new cafes, restaurants and take-away places are popping up everywhere. The reason behind the high growth in the hospitality industry is first and foremost a change in consumption patterns, we eat out more often. In addition, new Nordic cuisine has become fashionable and at the same time, there have been lots of new juice, burger, bakery and other concepts. In terms of rent, the restaurants are generally willing to pay an annual rent of up to DKK, per m², in some places even more. Vacancy per region in Denmark (%) Retail vacancy rate, July Nationwide, the vacancy rate for retail space fell. percentage points to.9 %. This is the lowest percentage of empty retail spaces in over years. Restaurants have helped reduce the retail vacancy rate to the lowest level since January. In a similar vacancy level (. %) has not been seen since 8. The developments have been particularly strong in the North Denmark Region, where the vacancy rate fell by. percentage points from 8. % to.9 %. The consumer confidence indicator declined slightly from.8 in August to.8 in September and is roughly unchanged, yet below the average for the past year. Retail sales adjusted for price changes, normal seasonal fluctuations and the impact of trading days fell by. % in August compared to July. This is the second consecutive month that retail sales decline. Total retail vacancy rate (%) Source: Oline-ED Statistikken 7 Unipension Ejendomme has sold the property Frederiksberggade for DKK 7 million for a yield of under %. The, m² large corner property situated on the main high street in (Strøget) was bought by Standard Life Investments and confirms a continued strong international demand for high street properties. Market rent for retail space, September DKK per sqm a year operations not included, 7,,,, - Consumer confidence, Retail yield, September.%.%.%.% - -.%.% Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Note: Retail properties, for example, in pedestrian zones with premises suitable for durable consumer goods in prime locations Denmark Market Report Q RETAIL Colliers International
6 INDUSTRIAL Lack of industrial properties A growing number of companies are experiencing difficulty finding up-to-date warehouse and industrial properties that live up to their needs. During the financial crisis demand for industrial properties decreased drastically, and new constructions were essentially non-existent. Since the end of 9, each year has seen an increase in industrial employment and production, and industry is reaching the same level of activity as before the financial crisis. Thus, the situation in Denmark is that the supply of modern industrial properties is very limited, while demand is increasing every year. This creates a structural problem where the next generation of industrial and logistics properties for rent have not yet been built. E-commerce continues to grow and is expected to generate sales of over DKK 7 billion in, equivalent to an increase of % compared to last year. The development is particularly strong for mobile phone shopping, nearly half of all Danes now shop electronically from their mobile phone or tablet. The growing market for E-commerce is driving down prices, so that consumers can often find products at significantly lower prices online than in stores. This leads to higher demands of the warehouse and logistics capabilities for E-commerce firms. Total revenue in the industrial sector saw a slight decline from the first to the second quarter of from DKK 8 billion to DKK 8. billion. Revenue has increased by. % compared to a year ago. The total industrial production decreased by. % from July to August. In absolute terms production is. % higher than in August. Statistics Denmark s composite confidence indicator for industry fell from -7 in August to -8 in September. Therefore, the indicator remains negative, as it has been since May. DKK bn NLI Eiendomsinvest has sold a property portfolio of, m² across 8 properties in Denmark, Norway and Sweden for over DKK. billion, including a warehouse on Zealand. The acquisition marks Round Hill Capital's entry into the Nordic region. Manufacturers' sales Vacancy per region in Denmark (%) Source: Oline-ED Statistikken Market rent for industrial and logistics space, September DKK per sqm a year operations not included Industrial and logistics yield, September Industrial and logistics vacancy rate, July Total industrial and logistics vacancy rate (%) %.7% 7.% 7.% Source: Colliers MarkedsPULS Note: Modern properties in prime locations 7.% 7.% Denmark Market Report Q INDUSTRIAL Colliers International
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