New developments booming in pan-regional cities

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1 Baltics Retail, H2 216/Q1 217 New developments booming in pan-regional cities 2,9 million sq m 69,5 sq m %-6.5% 6.65%-7.% *Arrows indicate change from the corresponding period in the previous year Figure 1: Shopping and Leisure Centre Kvartal in Tartu, opened in 216 Credit: Tartu Tarbijate Kooperatiiv KEY POINTS H2 216/ Q1 217 CBRE Research 217 CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network 1

2 sq m New deliveries,gla, sq m Total stock, s qm Density (sq m / capita) Purchasing power (EUR/ apita) BALTICS RETAIL Figure 2: Shopping Centre Densities in CEE Region Capitals, SQ M per 1, population (Traditional Shopping Centres* with GLA above 5, sq m) Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Russia Serbia Ukraine Austria Shopping centre density Purchasing power/ ' capita *Only traditional schemes above 5, sq m of GLA included (according to ICSC-Classification) Source: CBRE Research, Gfk Incoma Oxford Economics, Q1 217 SHOP P I NG CENTR E SUP P LY Figure 3: Total SC Stock with a GLA above 1, sq m by Country and Volumes Currently Under Construction, % COM P LETI ONS A BOV E 1, SQ M Estonia Latvia Lithuania Existing Stock, sq m Total U/C, sq m Source: Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, Q1 217 Figure 4: New stock deliveries and expansion of existing centres with a GLA above 1, sq m ( F), GLA sq m Estonia Latvia Lithuania f ESTONI A Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, Q1 217 Figure 5: New Shopping Centre Stock 215 & 216 and Stock under Construction in the Baltics Estonia Latvia Lithuania Capital Pan-regional UC Capital UC Pan-regional Source: Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, Q1 217 H2 216/ Q1 217 CBRE Research 217 CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network 2

3 BALTIC RETAIL L A T V I A LI THUA NI A Figure 6: New stock deliveries and expansion of existing centres with a GLA above 5, sq m 216 Project Country City New GLA, sq m Total GLA of the whole project, sq m Mustamae centre Estonia Tallinn 13,5 13,5 Arsenal Centre Estonia Tallinn 12, 12, Kärberi keskus Estonia Tallinn 5,5 5,5 (not included in the stock > 1, sq m) Kvartal Estonia Tartu 35, 54,65 Parli SC Estonia Maardu 6,5 6,5 (not included in the stock > 1, sq m) MEGA expansion Lithuania Kaunas 22,5 82,5 NORDIKA, 2nd stage Lithuania Vilnius 2,1 35,4 Domus PRO, 2nd stage Lithuania Vilnius 3,7 11,2 Source: Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, Q1 217 H2 216/ Q1 217 CBRE Research 217 CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network 3

4 Change, Y-o-Y, % Change, y-o-y, % BALTIC RETAIL Figure 7: Turnover Growth to Continue in 216; 212-H2 216 E- COM M ER CE IN THE BALTI CS 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % H1 216* TALLINN RIGA VILNIUS H2 216* *Data for VILNIUS are not available Source: Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, Q1 217 SHOP P I NG CENTR E R ETAI L SA LES ( TUR NOV ER S) Figure 8: Number of Visitors* in the Leading Shopping Centres, Change, %, y-o-y 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% H1 216 H2 216 TALLINN RIGA *CBRE Baltics estimations **data for VILNIUS are not available Source: Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, January 217 Figure 9: Retail Sales via Mail Order Houses or via the Internet, Change, %, hy-o-hy 15% 1% I NFLA TI ON A ND R ENT R A TES 5% % -5% H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H Latvia Lithuania Estonia TOTAL Source: CBRE Baltics, according Statistics Lithuania, Statistics Latvia and Statistics Estonia, Q1 217 H2 216/ Q1 217 CBRE Research 217 CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network 4

5 Total sales area, sq m sq m BALTIC RETAIL Figure 1: New Shopping Centre Stock 215 & 216 and Stock under Construction in other CEE Countries Czech Republic Poland Romania Croatia Slovakia Bulgaria Hungary Russia Serbia Ukraine Austria Capital Pan-regional UC Capital UC Pan-regional Source: CBRE Research, Q1 217 Figure 11: Top Four Fashion Retailer Sales Areas and Changes y/y in the Baltics Baltika Group H&M Apranga Group LPP Group Total sales area, sq m, 12/216 Change in sales area, sq m 215/216 (the right axes) Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, Q1 217 Figure 12: Top Four Fashion Retailers Turnover Changes, %, y/y 3% 2% 1% % P ER FOR M A NCE OF R ETAI LER S IN THE BALTI CS 2% 15% 17,1% 15,2% 1% 5% % 5,4% 5,9% 6,% 6,1% 8,9% EE LV LT Baltics Total 8,1% Turnover change H2 216/H2 215 Turnover change 216/215 Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, Q1 217 Figure 13: Share of Total Sales Area for the Top Four Fashion Retailers in the Baltic Region, % 17% 9% Baltika Group 46% 28% H&M Apranga Group LPP Group Source: CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network, Q1 217 H2 216/ Q1 217 CBRE Research 217 CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network 5

6 Percent Percentage change Change, hy-o-hy BALTIC RETAIL Figure 14: Total Retail Sales by Category in the Baltics, Change, %, hy-o-hy 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H RETAIL TRADE: TOTAL BALTICS, change, HY-O-HY, % FOOD AND BEVERAGE: TOTAL BALTICS, change, % hy-o-hy FASHION:TOTAL BALTICS, change, %, hy-o-hy INTERNET SALES: TOTAL BALTICS, change, %, hy-o-hy Source: CBRE Baltics Research, based on Statistics Latvia, Statistics Lithuania and Statistics Estonia Figure 15: Population statistics in the Baltics, % changes from 21 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% e Estonia Latvia Lithuania TALLINN RIGA VILNIUS Source: CBRE Baltics Research, based on Statistics Latvia, Statistics Lithuania and Statistics Estonia Figure 16: Private Consumption and CPI, Change, %, y-o-y, forecast e 218f 219f Private Consumption: EE Private Consumption: LV Private Consumption: LT CPI Estonia CPI Latvia CPI Lithuania EE-Estonia; LT-Lithuania; LV-Latvia Source: CBRE Baltics Research, Oxford Economics forecast H2 216/ Q1 217 CBRE Research 217 CPB Real Estate Services, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network 6

7 BALTICS RETAIL RESEARCH DEFINITIONS Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) includes the following countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Ukraine. Prime Rent for retail, Prime Rent is represented as the typical «achievable» open market headline rent which an international retail chain would be expected to pay for a ground floor retail unit of up to 2 sq m of the highest quality and specification and in the best location in a given market commensurate with demand in each location. Average Prime Rent represents the Average Prime Rent for all prime units that were taken-up during the survey period as specified in the definition for the Prime Rent variable. This rate indicates an average of what it would have cost to lease space in the market. Average Rent represents the Average Rent for all units that were taken-up during the survey period. This rate indicates an average of what it would have cost to lease space in that market. Shopping Centre Stock represents the total completed retail space (occupied and vacant) in the traditional shopping centres at the survey date, recorded as net rentable retail area. Included are traditional shopping centres with a gross lettable area above 1, sq m, excluding hypermarkets, DIY stores, retail parks and other specialised stores. ABOUT CPB R EAL ESTATE SER V I CES: Part of the CBRE Affiliate Network Headquartered in Riga, Latvia from 211 Representative offices in Vilnius and Tallinn Headcount 23 people Providing services in: Valuation, Consulting & Research, Property Sales, Property & Asset Management, Tenant Representation, Agency Services Retail, Offices, Industrial & Logistics. CONTACTS OFFI CES Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CPB Real Estate Services.