Performance of Private Equity Funds in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS

Transcription

1 Performance of Private Equity Funds in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS Data to 31 December 26

2 1 EBRD in Private Equity EBRD s portfolio of funds: 15 years of investing in the asset class Investment in 1+ funds 62 fund managers USD 2.3 billion in commitments (EUR 2 billion ) to funds with capital of USD 1.3 billion (EUR 8.8 billion) 917 underlying investments; 632 exited Largest PE Fund investment programme dedicated to the region Note: EBRD tracked portfolio only, excludes real estate funds, includes write-offs

3 2 EBRD Database Best available sample of PE performance in central and south east Europe (CSE) and Russia and CIS Tracks all gross investments made by all EBRD invested funds as well as net returns to EBRD Measured in both USD and EUR Obligatory reporting by fund managers, scrutinised by EBRD reflects comprehensive performance no survivor bias resulting from only best fund managers reporting

4 3 Definitions EBRD Sponsored Funds or Donor Funds funds established at EBRD's initiative in countries where no private sector funding was available for private equity funds. These funds are supported with significant donor grants, and EBRD investment represents usually over 9% of fund capital. Institutional Quality Funds (IQs) identified based on criteria established by Cambridge Associates. These include the characteristics of the investors in the fund, fund size relative to peers, and availability of data. Survivor Funds funds managed by managers who have or are expected to raise a follow-on fund.

5 4 Region CSE countries Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia (including Kosovo), Montenegro, Slovak Republic and Slovenia CIS Countries Armenia*, Azerbaijan, Belarus*, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic*, Moldova, Mongolia*, Russia, Tajikistan*, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan*, and Ukraine * There are currently no sub-investments in these countries.

6 Overview and Market Estimates

7 Slovenia Greece 26 PE Investment as a % of GDP 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2% Sweden United Kingdom The Netherlands France Hungary Europe Czech Republic Belgium Ireland Spain Denmark Italy Germany Switzerland Norway Finland Estonia Poland Kazakhstan Bulgaria Portugal Romania Russia Austria Croatia Ukraine Moldova.% Source: EVCA and EBRD estimates 5

8 6 Fund Raising vs Investments - CSE 1,6 1,4 Annual investments Fund capital raised by year 1,2 USD Millions 1, Note: CSE only, EBRD tracked portfolio only

9 7 Fund Raising vs Investments - CIS 8 7 Annual Investments Fund capital raised by year 6 USD Millions Note: CIS only, EBRD tracked portfolio only

10 8 EBRD Net Portfolio at a Glance 2,75 2,5 2,25 2, NAV USD Millions 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, 75 5 Returned 25 Funds Committed Paid-In NAV + Returned Note: CSE and CIS, EBRD tracked portfolio only

11 9 EBRD Commitments Over Time 3 CSE Donor / EBRD Sponsored Fund CSE Private Fund Russia/CIS Donor / EBRD Sponsored Fund Russia/CIS Private Fund 25 2 USD Millions

12 Net Returns Data

13 1 EBRD Horizon Returns: All Funds Returns as at 31 December 26 One Year Three Years Five Years Ten Years Since Inception USD EBRD Private Equity Portfolio* 46.9% 46.5% 28.8% 13.8% 13.2% Cambridge Emerging Markets Venture Capital & Private Equity Index** 26.8% 24.6% 12.8% 6.1% N/A S&P 5*** 12.3% 8.6% 6.8% 4.9% 5. 6% EUR EBRD Private Equity Portfolio* 31.5% 45.5% 18.1% 11.3% 11.1% EVCA All private Equity** 36.1% 13.% 5.4% 11.% 1.8% FTSE Emerging Markets Eastern Europe*** 12.2% 39.8% 28.9% 19.9% N/A Source: Cambridge Associates, EVCA, Bloomberg and EBRD * EBRD portfolio pooled end-to-end return, net of fees, expenses and carried interest. Excludes property funds, and includes liquidated partnerships ** Pooled end-to-end return, net of fees, expenses, and carried interest. *** Calculated assuming the same investment (cash flow) pattern as EBRD's portfolio of private equity funds since the relevant horizon.

14 11 EBRD Horizon Returns Breakdown Returns as at 31 December 26 One Year Three Years Five Years Ten Years Since Inception USD EBRD Private Equity Portfolio 46.9% 46.5% 28.8% 13.8% 13.2% CSE 34.4% 36.9% 24.7% 11.4% 11.2% Russia/CIS 6.5% 58.8% 33.4% 16.6% 15.8% CSE Survivors 27.1% 36.2% 26.2% 15.4% 15.1% Russia/CIS Survivors 43.4% 56.6% 36.7% 23.9% 23.1% EUR EBRD Private Equity Portfolio 31.5% 45.5% 18.1% 11.3% 11.1% CSE 2.3% 36.2% 14.9% 9.6% 9.6% Russia/CIS 43.5% 57.5% 21.7% 13.4% 12.9% CSE Survivors 13.8% 35.4% 16.4% 13.8% 13.7% Russia/CIS Survivors 28.7% 54.7% 25.5% 19.8% 19.5%

15 12 EBRD Net Cash Flows from Funds Disbursements Receipts 35 USD Millions

16 13 Net Vintage Groups TVPI DPI IRR 4% 35% 3% TVPI % 2% 15% 1% 5% IRR % Note: TVPI = Total Value to Paid In, DPI = Distributions to Paid In Note: CSE and CIS

17 Gross Returns Data

18 14 Snapshot: All Funds 1, 9, 8, Fully Realised (FR Including WO) Partially Realised (PR) Unrealised (UR) 7, $5,187m USD Millions 6, 5, 4, 3, $2,281m Overall 2.3x, 21.1% FR 2.27x, 2.4% PR 4.42x, 32.8% $1,348m 2, $35m UR 1.39x, 16.% 1, $2,9m $2,784m Investments at Cost $4,595m Excluding underlying investments of funds in which the EBRD sold on its interest Total Value $9,319m

19 15 Snapshot: CSE 3, 2,5 Fully Realised (FR Including WO) Partially Realised (PR) Unrealised (UR) USD Millions 2, 1,5 Overall 1.86x, 18.9% FR 2.18x, 19.6% $3,599m 1, $1,654m PR 2.52x, 22.% $439m 5 $174m UR 1.4x, 14.8% $1,386m 1,943m Investments at Cost $3,214m Excluding underlying investments of funds in which the EBRD sold on its interest Total Value $5,981m

20 16 Snapshot: CIS 3, 2,5 Fully Realised (FR Including WO) Partially Realised (PR) Unrealised (UR) 2, $1,588m USD Millions 1,5 Overall 2.42x, 25.1% FR 2.53x, 22.1% 1, $627m PR 6.98x, 39.9% $99m UR 1.35x, 2.4% 5 $13m $ 624m $841m Investments at Cost $1,381m Excluding underlying investments of funds in which the EBRD sold on its interest Total Value $3,338m

21 17 Snapshot: Survivors 9, 8, 7, Fully Realised (FR Including WO) Partially Realised (PR) Unrealised (UR) USD Millions 6, 5, 4, Overall 2.15x, 25.6% FR 2.66x, 25.7% $4,27m 3, $1,68m PR 4.38x, 35.2% $1,186m 2, $271m UR 1.4x, 18.3% 1, $1,882m $2,641m Investments at Cost $3,761m Excluding underlying investments of funds in which the EBRD sold on its interest Total Value $8,97m

22 18 Snapshot: CSE Survivors 5, Fully Realised (FR Including WO) Partially Realised (PR) Unrealised (UR) 4, $3,14m USD Millions 3, Overall 1.98x, 22.8% FR 2.49x, 23.9% 2, $1,246m PR 2.38x, 22.% $36m 1, $151m $1,271m UR 1.43x, 17.3% $1,821m Investments at Cost $2,668m Total Value $5,285m Excluding underlying investments of funds in which the EBRD sold on its interest

23 19 Snapshot: CIS Survivors 3, 2,5 Fully Realised (FR Including WO) Partially Realised (PR) Unrealised (UR) $1,165m 2, USD Millions 1,5 Overall 2.57x, 32.2% FR 3.22x, 3.6% $826m 1, $362m PR 6.9x, 43.5% 5 $12m $611m UR 1.34x, 21.5% $82m Investments at Cost $1,93m Excluding underlying investments of funds in which the EBRD sold on its interest Total Value $2,811m

24 2 Aggregate USD Gross Results: CSE All Survivors IQ Private TVPI IRR TVPI IRR TVPI IRR TVPI IRR Fully Realised % % % % Fully Realised and Partly Realised All (including Unrealised) % % % % % % % %

25 21 Aggregate USD Gross Results: CIS All Survivors IQ Private TVPI IRR TVPI IRR TVPI IRR TVPI IRR Fully Realised % % % % Fully Realised and Partly Realised All (including Unrealised) % % % % % % % %

26 22 Gross Cash Flow - CSE 1,6 1,4 1,2 Annual Investments by funds (cash out) Annual Proceeds to funds (cash in) USD Millions 1,

27 23 Gross Cash Flow - CIS 6 Annual Investments by funds (cash out) 5 Annual Proceeds to funds (cash in) 4 USD Millions

28 24 Investments by Country to end 26 Poland 3% Romania 8% Baltics 4% Hungary 1% Russia 24% Czech Republic and Slovakia 12% Bulgaria 4% Western CIS and Caucasus** 2% Other* 2% Central Asia 4% * Other includes: Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovenia ** Western CIS and Caucasus includes: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine *** Central Asia includes: Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan Note: CSE and CIS, since inception

29 25 Investments by Country - 26 Ukraine 5% Bulgaria 3% Croatia 3% Czech Republic 17% Russia 3% Kazakhstan 8% Romania 5% Poland 27% Other 2% Other includes: Estonia, Hungary, Moldova, Slovenia Note: CSE and CIS, vintage year 26 only

30 26 Investments by Stage Over Time Investment Cost USD Millions Expansion Other Sec. Purchase / Buyout Seed/Early Stage

31 27 Investments by Stage Over Time: CSE Investment Cost USD Millions Expansion Other Sec. Purchase / Buyout Seed/Early Stage

32 28 Investments by Stage Over Time: CIS 3 Expansion Investment Cost USD Millions Other Sec. Purchase / Buyout Seed/Early Stage

33 29 26 Investment Stage vs EVCA 1% 9% 8% % of Investment Cost 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Other Seed/Early Stage Sec. Purchase / Buyout Expansion 2% 1% % CIS (EBRD) CSE (EBRD) EVCA

34 3 26 Investment Sectors vs EVCA 1% 9% 8% % of Investment Cost 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% TIM Services Primary & Energy Pharma & Medical Manufacturing Consumer/Retail Construction Agriculture & Forestry % CIS (EBRD) CSE (EBRD) EVCA

35 31 Investments by Sector to end 26 Wholesale & Retail 11% Agriculture & Forestry 1% Construction 5% Consumer 14% Manufacturing 1% TIM 29% Pharma & Medical 3% Services 22% Primary & Energy 5% Note: CSE and CIS, since inception

36 32 Investments by Sector 26 Wholesale & Retail 5% Construction 6% Consumer 4% Manufacturing 2% Primary & Energy 3% TIM 4% Services 4% Note: CSE and CIS, vintage year 26 only

37 33 Exits by Sector to end Investment Profitability Investment Cost 2 USD Millions Agriculture & Construction Consumer Manufacturing Pharma & Forestry Medical Primary & Energy Services TIM Wholesale & Retail Note: fully realised investments, including partial realisations, excluding write offs, CSE and CIS

38 34 Exits by Sector 26 - CSE 45 4 Investment Profitability Investment Cost 35 3 USD Millions Agriculture & Forestry Construction Consumer Manufacturing Pharma & Medical Primary & Energy Services TIM Wholesale & Retail Note: fully realised investments, including partial realisations, excluding write offs, CSE only

39 35 Exits by Sector 26 - CIS 6 5 Investment Profitability Investment Cost 4 USD Millions Agriculture & Forestry Construction Consumer Manufacturing Pharma & Medical Primary & Energy Services TIM Wholesale & Retail Note: fully realised investments, including partial realisations, excluding write offs, CIS only

40 36 Exits by Country 1,8 USD Millions 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Investment Profitability Investment Cost Russia Poland Romania Central Asia*** Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Slovakia ***Central Asia includes: Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan All exits since inception (including fully realised, partially realised and write-offs) Ukraine *Other CSE includes: Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Slovenia and Latvia **Other CIS includes: Azerbaijan, Moldova and Georgia Estonia Other CSE* Lithuania Other CIS**

41 37 Exit by Country - 26 USD Millions 1, Investment Profitability Investment Cost Russia Central Asia* Poland Bulgaria Romania Baltics** Czech Ukraine Republic & Slovakia Hungary Other*** ***Other includes: Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Slovenia **Central Asia includes : Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan * Baltics includes; Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, Exits in 26 for fully realised and partially realised deals (including write-offs)

42 Exits Over Time by Investment Stage - CSE 38 1, 9 8 Expansion Other Sec. Purchase / Buyout Seed/Early Stage Exit Proceeds (USD Millions) Exit Year Note: Fully realised and partially realised investments (excludes write-offs)

43 Exits Over Time by Investment Stage - CIS 39 Exit Proceeds (USD Millions) Expansion Sec. Purchase / Buyout Seed/Early Stage Exit Year Note: fully realised and partially realised investments (excludes write-offs)

44 4 Type of Exits Over Time - CSE MBO Other Public Market Trade Sale USD Millions Note: fully realised investments, including partial realisations, excluding write-offs

45 41 Type of Exits Over Time - CIS USD Millions MBO Other Public Market Trade Sale Note: fully realised investments, including partial realisations, excluding write-offs

46 42 Performance by Exit Type 3,5 4.5 USD Millions 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Investment Cost Exit Proceeds & Cash Returns Multiple , Write Off MBO OTHER Public Market Trade Sale. Note: CSE and CIS fully realised deals, including write-offs

47 Performance by Investment Stage and Exit Type 43 Investment Stage Exit Type Expansion Sec Purchase Buyout Seed/Early Stage Sale to Management 1.75x.87x.71x Flotation/SS 4.37x 2.88x 3.23x Trade Sale 3.13x 3.3x 1.49x Other 2.x 2.41x 1.98x Note: all fully realised and partially realised deals, excluding write-offs

48 44 Gross Vintages and Money Multiples 12 Investment Cost All Total Investment Value All 5 TVPI All TVPI FR only USD Millions Vintage Year Note: Includes write-offs

49 Gross Vintages and Money Multiples: CSE 1, 4. Investment Cost All 9 TVPI All Total Investment Value All TVPI FR only USD Millions Vintage Year Note: Includes write-offs.

50 Gross Vintages and Money Multiples: CIS 6 9. Investment Cost All Total Investment Value All TVPI All TVPI FR only USD Millions Vintage Year Note: Includes write-offs.

51 47 26 Exits by Vintage FR x 1 9 UR FR exited in 26 USD Millions FR x FR x Note: CSE and CIS, all fully realised deals in 26 (including write-offs)

52 48 Exit Performance Over Time 2,5 2, Investment Cost Exit Proceeds & Cash Returns TVPI USD Millions 1,5 1, Exit Year. Note: fully realised deals, including partial realisation and excluding write-offs

53 49 Exit Performance Over Time: CSE USD Millions 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Investment Cost Exit Proceeds & Cash Returns TVPI Exit Year Note: fully realised deals, including partial realisation and excluding write-offs

54 5 Exit Performance Over Time: CIS 1,2 1, 8 Investment Cost Exit Proceeds & Cash Returns TVPI USD Millions Exit Years Note: fully realised deals, including partial realisation and excluding write-offs.

55 51 Unrealised Values Investment Cost Total Investment Value 1 USD Millions Expansion Sec. Purchase / Buyout Seed/Early Stage CSE and CIS

56 52 Unrealised Values - CSE 6 5 Sum of Investment Cost Sum of Total Investment Value Investment Cost USD Millions Vintage Year

57 53 Unrealised Values - CIS Sum of Investment Cost Sum of Total Investment Value Investment Cost USD Millions Vintage Year

58 Investor Data

59 54 Investors By Type - Trends 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Banks & Insurance IFI and Gvt Funds of Funds Pension Funds Corporate Investors Other 3% 2% 1% %

60 55 Investors By Type By Region CSE Funds CIS Funds 2 USD Millions Other Banks Corporate Investors Fund of Funds IFI & Govt Insurance Pension Funds Private Investors Note: includes EBRD (in IFI/Govt)

61 56 Investors By Origin Over Time 1 Other USA Europe 8 USD Millions Note: Excludes EBRD (from Europe)

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