DIVERSIFICATION IN INVESTMENT & THE QUEENSLAND ECONOMY

Transcription

1 DIVERSIFICATION IN INVESTMENT & THE QUEENSLAND ECONOMY Jim Christensen Managing Director, Global Multi-Asset State Investment Advisor 21 October 2016

2 QIC Limited ACN ( QIC ) is a wholesale funds manager and its products and services are not directly available to, and this document may not be provided to any, retail clients. QIC is a company government owned corporation constituted under the Queensland Investment Corporation Act 1991 (Qld). QIC is regulated by State Government legislation pertaining to government owned corporations in addition to the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ( Corporations Act ). QIC does not hold an Australian financial services ( AFS ) licence and certain provisions (including the financial product disclosure provisions) of the Corporations Act do not apply to QIC. Some wholly owned subsidiaries of QIC, including QIC Private Capital Pty Ltd, QIC Investments No 1 Pty Ltd and QIC Infrastructure Management No 2 Pty Ltd, have been issued with an AFS licence and are required to comply with the Corporations Act. QIC also has wholly owned subsidiaries authorised, registered or licensed by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority ( FCA ), the United States Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) and the Korean Financial Services Commission. For more information about QIC, our approach, clients and regulatory framework, please refer to our website or contact us directly. To the extent permitted by law, QIC, its subsidiaries, associated entities, their directors, employees and representatives (the QIC Parties ) disclaim all responsibility and liability for any loss or damage of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered by any person directly or indirectly through relying on the information contained in this document (the Information ), whether that loss or damage is caused by any fault or negligence of the QIC Parties or otherwise. This Information does not constitute financial product advice and you should seek advice before relying on it. In preparing this Information, no QIC Party has taken into account any investor s objectives, financial situations or needs. Investors should be aware that an investment in any financial product involves a degree of risk and no QIC Party, nor the State of Queensland guarantees the performance of any QIC fund or managed account, the repayment of capital or any particular amount of return. No investment with QIC is a deposit or other liability of any QIC Party. This Information may be based on information and research published by others. No QIC Party has confirmed, and QIC does not warrant, the accuracy or completeness of such statements. Where the Information relates to a fund or services that have not yet been launched, all Information is preliminary information only and is subject to completion and/or amendment in any manner, which may be material, without notice. It should not be relied upon by potential investors. The Information may include statements and estimates in relation to future matters, many of which will be based on subjective judgements or proprietary internal modelling. No representation is made that such statements or estimates will prove correct. The reader should be aware that such Information is predictive in character and may be affected by inaccurate assumptions and/or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Forecast results may differ materially from results ultimately achieved. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This Information is being given solely for general information purposes. It does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy, securities or any other investment, investment management or advisory services in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be illegal. This Information does not constitute an information memorandum, prospectus, offer document or similar document in respect of securities or any other investment proposal. This Information is private and confidential and it has not been deposited with, or reviewed or authorised by any regulatory authority in, and no action has been or will be taken that would allow an offering of securities in, any jurisdiction. Neither this Information nor any presentation in connection with it will form the basis of any contract or any obligation of any kind whatsoever. No such contract or obligation will be formed until all relevant parties execute a written contract. QIC is not making any representation with respect to the eligibility of any recipients of this Information to acquire securities or any other investment under the laws of any jurisdiction. Neither this Information nor any advertisement or other offering material may be distributed or published in any jurisdiction, except under circumstances that will result in compliance with any applicable laws and regulations. Copyright QIC Limited, Australia. All rights are reserved. Do not copy, disseminate or use, except in accordance with the prior written consent of QIC. 2

3 QIC WAS BORN WITH AN INVESTOR MINDSET $78 billion in funds under management 1 Over 90 clients including government, pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, universities and insurers. Spanning Australia, Europe, Asia, Middle East and US Global Real Estate Global Infrastructure Global Private Equity Global Liquid Strategies Global Multi-Asset Solutions Established in 1991 by the Queensland Government to serve its long-term investment responsibilities and has grown into a global diversified alternatives business Over 500 staff with offices in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, London, Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York and Copenhagen All figures as at 31 December

4 QUEENSLAND UNIQUE WITH FULLY FUNDED LIABILITIES

5 DIVERSIFICATION ENHANCED THROUGH ALTERNATIVES Real Estate 9% Managed Funds 8% Commodities 2% Timber 1% Alternatives 44% Equities 20% Private Equity 7% Insurance-linked Securities 4% Bonds & Cash 36% Private Debt 4% Infrastructure 8% Source: QIC as at 14 th October

6 LONGER-TERM ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE 30 Asset Class Performance, periods ended 30 June (%) Australian Equities International Equities (Hedged) Australian Bonds 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Global Bonds (Hedged) Australian Cash DB Real Estate DB Infrastructure DB Private Equity Source: Northern Trust - Australian Equities, S&P/ASX200; International Equities (Hedged), MSCI ACWI ex Aus Index with Net Dividends reinvested (Hedged AUD); Australian Bonds, Bloomberg AusBond Composite; Global Bonds (Hedged), Barclays Capital Global Aggregate (Hedged AUD); Australian Cash, Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill; DB Real Estate, QIC Global Real Estate Defined Benefit Portfolio (Gross IRR); DB Infrastructure, QIC Global Infrastructure Defined Benefit Portfolio (Gross IRR); DB Private Equity, QIC Global Private Equity Defined Benefit Portfolio (Gross IRR).

7 12% 10% HAVE LEAD TO HIGHER RISK- ADJUSTED RETURNS Performance 8% 6% Risk 8% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 1 year return 3 year return 5 year return Asset Portfolio Listed Risk Equivalent Benchmark 0% 1 year vol 3 year vol 5 year vol Asset Portfolio Listed Risk Equivalent Benchmark Risk adjusted returns Source: QIC as at 30 th June Y 3Y 5Y QIC Portfolio Benchmark 7

8 QLD HAS A DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY BASE With non-mining exports to benefit from the lower currency Queensland - industrial structure (% of total real GDP, ) Construction Ownership of dwellings Mining Health care and social assistance Manufacturing Financial and insurance services Public administration and safety Transport, postal and warehousing Professional and scientific services Retail trade Wholesale trade Education and training Utilities Rental, hiring and real estate services Accommodation and food services Agriculture, forestry and fishing Administrative and support services IT and media Other services Arts and recreation services Queensland Australia Queensland - Selected export industries (% of nominal GDP, ) Education exports Interstate Overseas Agriculture Tourism exports Mining* * Mining share is estimated to have increased in via LNG exports Sources: ABS, OGS, QIC

9 QLD TOURISM TO HAVE A STRONG DECADE Via improving global growth, a lower AUD, low oil prices and capacity increases 8 Australia - International tourists (visitor nights, average annual growth) 4 Australia - National tourists (visitor nights, average annual growth) Source: Tourism Research Australia, QIC 0 5 yrs to yrs to yrs to yrs to yrs to yrs to Queensland Australia -2 Queensland Australia Source: Tourism Research Australia, QIC 9

10 LED BY GROWTH IN EMERGING ASIA And in particular the emerging market middle class in China Australia - International tourist spend (real terms, $B) China United States United Kingdom New Zealand Other Europe Other Asia Japan South Korea Hong Kong India S'pore Germany Malaysia France Indonesia Thailand Overseas Queensland tourism - Overseas visitors by region (millions) Brisbane Fraser Coast Gold Coast Mackay Outback Southern Great Barrier Reef Southern Qld Country Sunshine Coast Townsville Tropical North Queensland Whitsundays Sources: Tourism Research Australia, QIC

11 EDUCATION EXPORTS ARE RISING Via a lower dollar, regulatory changes and developing economy demand 120 Queensland - overseas student enrolments (calender years*) Queensland - o/s student enrolments by markets (000s, yr to July) China Annual change, % (rhs) Level, 000s India South Korea Brazil Taiwan Source: Australian Education International, QIC 11

12 RURAL SECTOR HAS UPSIDE POTENTIAL With demand/supply balance favourable for Qld s largest rural export beef Australia - beef exports (kilo tonnes) Other United States Korea Japan China Australia - Saleyard price (A cents/kg, weighted average, FY) Historical trend ABARES F'cast (Q1,16) 1 Historical price Projected long-run trend 2 (2007 to 2050) Based on ABARES medium term projections ( to ) for the average saleyard beef prices in the Q Australian Commodites Quarterly 2. Based on ABARES long-run projection for the real US$ meat price (beef, pig, sheep and poultry) to grow by 13.3% in real terms between 2007 and This translates into an average annual nominal increase in US$ terms of 2.7% (assuming annual inflation of 2.4%). Allowing for partial exchange rate pass-through (ie. a depreciation in the AUD) results in a projection for an average annual nominal increase in AUD terms of 2.9%. Source: ABARE, ABS, QIC

13 STRONG BEEF DEMAND FACTORS Surge in population of affluent middle class in Asia will underpin strong beef demand over the next decade Mexico 0.3kt 2.9% Canada 1.4kt 13.6% 0.5kt 5.1% USA EU 0.3kt 3.2% Egypt Other Europe 0.4kt 3.5% 0.1kt 1.1% MENA 1.3kt 12.6% Russia China 1.1kt 10.8% 2.2kt 21.3% South Korea 0.6kt 5.8% 0.2kt 1.7% Taiwan 0.8kt 7.6% Japan Other Asian countries 0.9kt 8.6% 0.2kt 2.1% Philippines 2024 total forecast imports (kt cwe) % of major imports Asia will account for 47% of global beef imports by 2024 Note: kt cwe = kilotonnes carcass weight equivalent Source: USDA, 2015 USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024 Forecast results are predictions only and may be affected by inaccurate assumptions and/or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Forecast results may differ materially from results ultimately achieved. 13

14 QIC INVESTMENTS IN QUEENSLAND Overtop Ov ertop Valued at over $17.5 billion Employing 35,000 people Infrastructure: Brisbane Airport Port of Brisbane Coopers Gap Windfarm (proposed) Real estate: 14 major shopping centres CBD office building portfolio Private equity: North Australian Pastoral Company Ostwald Bros.

15 BRISBANE AIRPORT Australia s third largest airport, with $1.35 billion parallel runway currently under construction Passenger Volumes Millions FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 International (incl DOC) Domestic Australian Airport Passenger Comparison CY15 Millions 39.8 Domestic International Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Gold Coast Cairns Canberra Hobart 15

16 $4.2B QUEENSLAND RETAIL PORTFOLIO $2.5bn in annual sales 1,250 tenants in QIC centres $800m in development underway: $525m expansion of Grand Central in Toowoomba $161m development at Robina Town Centre Grand Central, Toowoomba, QLD ~$575m development activity planned for Queensland assets over the next two years.

17 NAPCO TRANSACTION In April, QIC acquired 80 per cent of North Australian Pastoral Company, one of Australia s oldest and largest beef producers Vertically integrated beef business 13 properties covering 5.8 million hectares in Queensland NT 0.75 per cent of the Australian landmass Wainui feedlot on the Darling Downs Herd of around 178,000 cattle. 17

18 RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT In July, QIC partnered with AGL on Australia s largest renewable energy portfolio, including a commitment to 850MW new build Initial Investments - Broken Hill, NSW Initial Investments Nyngan, NSW Future Investment Coopers Gap, Qld QIC, on behalf of clients, committed $800m to the Powering Australia Renewables Fund ("PARF ) with AGL PARF will own Australia's only two operational solar farms, totalling c.150mw, at Nyngan and Broken Hill, NSW PARF has committed to development of further 850MW of renewables Coopers Gap Wind Farm is a priority for PARF: 350MW project in Qld progressing approvals final commitment expected late 2017 / 2018 PARF will assess other large scale renewable projects 18

19 KEY POINTS Queensland s pension scheme is fully funded Its assets are managed in a strategy to diversify away from equity risk while achieving attractive returns Queensland s economy is more diversified than generally perceived Agricultural, tourism and education exports also act to buffer the State s economy from the cyclicality of the mining sector 19